Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
932 PM AST FRI FEB 18 2011

.UPDATE...A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW BROUGHT SHOWERS FROM THE ATLANTIC
WATERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUICKLY...THEREFORE...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL WAS RECORDED. A DRIER AIR MASS IS
STARTING TO INVADE OUR REGION...WHICH WILL INDUCE LESS CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. STILL EXPECT FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO
AS THE REMNANT OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGER ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A WEAK WESTWARD MOVING WAVE AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS PUERTO RICO HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS AND
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS TO THE FORECAST AREA. BRIEF EPISODES OF MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIST...TNCM AND TKPK TIL 19/14Z AND MTN OBSCURATIONS IN
PUERTO RICO SHOULD BE EXPECTED AT ANY TIME. SHWRS WILL CLEAR FROM
THE NORTH AFT 19/15Z BUT SW PR WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SHWRS THROUGH
20/00Z. WINDS ALOFT BELOW 8 KFT NE 12 KNOTS OR LESS.

[Macrocane]

Today the region experienced near average temperatures although there are some interesting facts:
-Belize and Honduras had the warmest highs since February 9.
-San Salvador experienced the coolest low since February 10 even though we don't have a cold surge right now.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 22°C (72°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.6°C (65.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14°C (57°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 1°C (34°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.2°C (63.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 8.4°C (47.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.2°C (68.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 17°C (62.6°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.2°C (63.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.3°C (39.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.2°C (73.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.8°C (62.2°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 26.6°C (79.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 27°C (81°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 23.2°C (73.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 33°C (91°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 32.3°C (90.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.8°C (67.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 38.0°C (100.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 27.2°C (81.0°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.7°C (80.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 13.9°C (57.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.8°C (91.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.3°C (72.1°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
435 AM AST SAT FEB 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO LINGER TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST WIND FLOW BROUGHT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUICKLY...THEREFORE...LITTLE ACCUMULATION
RECORDED. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES. THEREFORE...CONTINUE
TO EXPECT LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE CAME DOWN DURING THE PAST HOURS...HOWEVER IS
EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING TO
RESULT IN SOME CLOUDINESS AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN OF A FEW LIGHT MORNING SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES ACROSS THE NORTH COAST OF PR/THE VI...AND
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PR
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT LEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

A FRESH TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS A SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN...ON
TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER
EAST...TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...A FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AS FACT...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
FORECAST PW VALUES EXTREMELY LOW...WITH VALUES BELOW AN INCH ALL
WEEK LONG.

LOOKING AHEAD...AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE A BIT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN LIGHT
PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH PESKY MORNING
SHOWERS AT JSJ/IST AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AT JPS SAT-SUN. WINDS
MAINLY BETWEEN NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KT. P6SM SKC MON-THU OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS CURRENTLY IN THE 6 TO 9 FT RANGE ACROSS THE ATLC
WATERS PER BUOY AND SHIP REPORTS. SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN SEAS
OVR THE WEEKEND BUT STILL HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS. BIG
SWELL EVENT FOR MON NIGHT-TUE POSSIBLY LARGEST OF THE WINTER SEASON
THUS FAR. WAVEWATCH ENSEMBLE SHOWS A MEAN OF 3 METERS AT 13 SECS
WITH A SPREAD BETWEEN 0.6 TO 0.9 METERS. AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE A
GOOD BET THAT WILL SEE 10 FT SEAS AT 13 SECS WITH HIGH SURF ADVZY
CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO CAP SEAS AT 10 FT UNTIL THERE IS MORE
SUPPORT THAN SEAS HIGHER THAN 3 METERS WILL VERIFY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 82 73 / 20 40 30 20
STT 83 71 84 72 / 20 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1116 AM AST SAT FEB 19 2011

.UPDATE...A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW BROUGHT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM
THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUICKLY...THEREFORE...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL WAS RECORDED. AS THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO
INDUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO
RICO. IN GENERAL...THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE WIND GRIDS
TO DECREASE A FEW KNOTS IN SOME MARINE ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS. SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS OF
10 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 8 KFT.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

For marine interests in the NE Caribbean.

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1044 AM AST SAT FEB 19 2011

...ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

.NORTH SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...
INCREASING NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SEAS. A NEW
SURGE OF LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

AMZ742-192200-
/O.CON.TJSJ.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-110219T2200Z/
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
1044 AM AST SAT FEB 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
6 PM AST THIS EVENING.

* WINDS AND WAVES:INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AND 7 FOOT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR
SEAS OF 7 FEET AND GREATER ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
345 PM AST SAT FEB 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TO
THE EAST NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDING EAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RECEDING WEST SLIGHTLY FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...REMNANTS OF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH EVEN A WEAK
MESOSCALE VORTICY NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AT THIS
TIME...WILL CONTINUE NEAR/ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY...BEFORE MOVING FURTHER WEST SOUTHWEST AND
DISSIPATING. THIS WILL KEEP SOME PERIODIC CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY
NIGHT. THEREAFTER...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND AN OVERALL VERY DRY
AND STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD TAKE CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER
REGIME...RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...AS IS TYPICAL WITH THIS TYPE
PATTERN...BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDS
AND A FEW PASSING SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPED ALREADY AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND
TJPS IN SHRA/TSRA. SUSTAINED NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 8 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 11 TO 23 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 8 FEET
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. ONGOING NORTH
NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL
WATERS FOR TONIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD...A NEW SURGE OF LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT EVENT
AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES FOR MANY AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 81 72 81 / 40 30 20 10
STT 72 82 72 83 / 20 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1014 PM AST SAT FEB 19 2011

.UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH PUERTO RICO. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS MOVING FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. NO OVERALL CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM GRIDS WERE MADE. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK AS A VERY DRY AIR MASS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL BRING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TO
PUERTO RICO AND ONLY SAINT CROIX AND SAINT THOMAS THROUGH 21/02Z.
BRIEF MVFR PSBL AT TNCM THROUGH PD. AFT CLEARING TONIGHT AT TJMZ
MVFR LIKELY AFT 20/18Z. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL. LLVL WINDS NE UP
TO 15 KT SFC TO 1000 FT THEN SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGH 12 THOUSAND
FEET AND BECMG MORE NORTHERLY.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
419 AM AST SUN FEB 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A SURFACE
TO MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES BROUGHT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUICKLY...THEREFORE...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION RECORDED.

LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING TO
RESULT IN SOME CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...A
SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ITSELF ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE COMBINED WITH A STABLE AIR MASS
SHOULD TAKE CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME...RESULTING IN
GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. AS FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST PW VALUES EXTREMELY LOW...WITH
VALUES BELOW AN INCH ALL WEEK LONG.

THUS...A WEATHER PATTERN OF A FEW EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AFFECTING
THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...IF ANY...DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...PESKY MORNING SHOWERS AT JSJ/IST TODAY AND MONDAY AND
AFTERNOON SHRA AT JPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KT. P6SM SKC
MON-FRI.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS CURRENTLY IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE MAINLY ACROSS AMZ710
PER LATEST BUOY OBS SO HAVE CANCELLED SCA FOR ALL OTHER AREAS FOR
THE TIME BEING. SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN SEAS TODAY-NOON MON. BIG
SWELL EVENT FOR MON NIGHT-TUE POSSIBLY LARGEST OF THE WINTER SEASON
THUS FAR. LATEST WAVEWATCH ENSEMBLE STILL SHOWS THE MEAN OF SIG WAVE
HEIGHTS PEAKING AT 3 METERS 13 SECS WITH A SPREAD BETWEEN 0.6 TO 0.9
METERS. HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS BETWEEN 9-11 FT WILL VERIFY
OFFSHORE AND 8-10 FT NEARSHORE SO ADJUSTED SEAS UP A FOOT FROM PREVS
FCST. HOWEVER...WAVEWATCH ENSEMBLE SHOWS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO SWELL PERIOD INDICATING A SPREAD BETWEEN 3-4 SECS.
EVEN IF THE LOWER END OF THE SWELL PERIOD VERIFIES HIGH SURF ADVZY
CONDITIONS WOULD STILL BE MET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 72 82 72 / 20 40 40 20
STT 82 72 83 68 / 20 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
324 PM AST SUN FEB 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TO
THE EAST NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDING EAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RECEDING WEST
SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ONLY TO EXTEND OVER THE LOCAL
AREA AGAIN FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PESKY REMNANTS OF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL
CONTINUE NEAR/ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY...BEFORE FINALLY MOVING FURTHER WEST SOUTHWEST AND
DISSIPATING LATER MONDAY. THIS WILL STILL KEEP SOME PERIODIC
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THEREAFTER...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND AN OVERALL VERY
DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD TAKE CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER
REGIME...RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. HOWEVER...
AS IS TYPICAL WITH THIS TYPE PATTERN...BANDS AND PATCHES OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...
RESULTING IN BRIEF INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL BRING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
TO PUERTO RICO AND OCNLY SAINT CROIX AND SAINT THOMAS THROUGH
21/02Z. BRIEF MVFR PSBL AT TNCM THROUGH PD. AFT CLEARING TONIGHT
AT TJMZ MVFR LIKELY AFT 20/18Z. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL. LLVL
WINDS NE UP TO 15 KT SFC TO 1000 FT THEN SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGH
12 THOUSAND FEET AND BECMG MORE NORTHERLY.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 11 TO 21 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS
GENERALLY AT A "LOW" POINT TONIGHT...BEFORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
CARIBBEAN PASSAGE SEAS BUILD AGAIN MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...IN LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS...PEAK MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WHILE SUBSIDING. THERE IS A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR MOST OF
THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS TEMPORARILY
ENDED FOR THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS...BUT WILL RESUME
AGAIN LATER MONDAY MORNING...AS SWELLS QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS THE
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
OTHER ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
EVENT...ALBEIT RATHER SHORT LIVED...AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE THE
ISSUANCE OF HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR MANY AREAS AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 82 72 81 / 40 40 20 10
STT 72 83 72 83 / 20 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

Air Force sends hurricane aid to St Lucia

Reservists from the U.S. Air Force's 315th Airlift Wing based in Charleston, S.C., are scheduled to deliver more than 11,000 pounds of humanitarian items to the Caribbean island nation of St. Lucia this weekend, thanks to a Wausau nonprofit organization.

The Good News Project collected the aid items and school supplies valued at more than $72,000 to help victims of Hurricane Tomas, which hit St. Lucia in October. Many people on the island still are homeless, without household supplies and clothing. Air Force missions such as this are made possible through the Denton Amendment, a State Department program allowing delivery of donated supplies to fly on Air Force planes on a space-available basis.

http://www.wausaudailyherald.com/articl ... ocated=rss

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall (rain is 7pmEt Sat-7pmET Sun) for
Sun Feb 20 2011

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 31.4C 88F
Maraval, NW Trinidad 29.9C 86F
Crown Point, Tobago 28.7C 84F 4.0mm
Point Salines, Grenada 29.9C 86F
Grantley Adams, Barbados 29.4C 85F 0.9mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 29.2C 84F

Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 29.4C 85F
Melville Hall, Dominica 29.5C 85F
LeLamentin, Martinique 29.6C 86F
LeRaizet, Guadeloupe 28.3C 83F 12.0mm (low 19.7C 68F)
VC Bird, Antigua 28.1C 83F (Low 19.8C 68F)
Golden Rock, St Kitts 28.8C 84F (low 20.3C 68F)
San Juan, Puerto Rico 27.8C 82F 1.3mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 27.7C 83F
Kingston, Jamaica 30.1C 86F trace
Montego Bay, Jamaica 29.7C 86F
Havana, Cuba 26.9C 80F
Key West, Florida 25.6C 78F
Miami, Florida 26.7C 80F
Nassau, Bahamas 25.6C 78F
Hamilton, Bermuda 17.5C 64F 1.6mm

Hato, Curacao 30.0C 86F
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 30.2C 86F
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 30.9C 88F

-justin-

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
940 PM AST SUN FEB 20 2011

.UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE
NORTH NORTHEAST. ALL OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO RECEIVED RAIN FROM 6
TO 9 PM AND MOST OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO ... SAVE COASTAL AREAS
FROM QUEBRADILLAS TO VEGA BAJA RECEIVED RAIN FROM 8 PM TO 9 PM.
AMOUNTS WERE AS HIGH AS THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE FOOTHILLS.
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO A GOOD
PORTION OF THE MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN. THESE
SHOWERS WILL ALSO DAMPEN THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SAINT
CROIX WHERE RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN CONSIDERABLY LESS. DESPITE DRIER
AIR APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE NORTH...SHOWERS MAY RETURN
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE EFFECTS OF A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE BEEN
INCREASINGLY FELT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EVEN AS A THIN ROPE CLOUD
DEMARCATES THE POSITION OF A COLD FRONT 270 MILES NORTH ALSO
APPROACHING THE AREA. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TIME OF PASSAGE WITH
THE GFS SUGGESTING 22/18Z AND THE NAM SUGGESTING AS EARLY AS
21/21Z. CONSIDERABLE DISSIPATION IS ALSO FORESEEN. IN ANY EVENT THE
FRONT WILL HAVE TO SLOW DOWN FROM ITS CURRENT SPEED OF 20 MPH OR
BY LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION IT WOULD ARRIVE MONDAY MORNING...21/15Z.
THEREFORE ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT LIKELY BE LATER THAN
THE GFS. NEVERTHELESS BOTH MODELS STILL BRING HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS OVER THE AREA AT 925 MB THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...23/12Z...HENCE INCREASED POPS ALONG THE NORTHEAST
COASTS.


&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TNCM AND TKPK IN
PASSING SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST 21/12Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH VCSH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS NNE UP TO 20 KT SFC TO 25000 FT THEN BECOMING WESTERLY AND
STRONGER ABOVE.

&&

.MARINE...INCREASED SWELL CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY ISSUANCE MONDAY MORNING.

[Macrocane]

Hi! I'm back after I went on a trip to San Miguel yesterday and that's why I didn't post. Today (February 20) the temperatures were near normal for this time of year in most of the region except in Honduras that experienced above normal highs and lows and El Salvador that had above normal lows.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 20°C (68°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 15.4°C (59.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14°C (57°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 0.5°C (32.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.4°C (65.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.9°C (49.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.9°C (69.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 16°C (61°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.6°C (61.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.0°C (39.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.1°C (59.2°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 28°C (82°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 25.1°C (77.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26°C (79°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.6°C (70.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.7°C (89.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.5°C (67.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 38.1°C (100.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.5°C (81.5°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 12.6°C (54.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.6°C (90.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.4°C (72.9°F)

[cycloneye]

High Surf Advisory

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
408 AM AST MON FEB 21 2011

...LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS...
THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL PASSAGES STARTING THIS EVENING...AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL BUILD AND QUICKLY SPREAD
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES STARTING THIS EVENING...THEN
PEAK EARLY TUESDAY...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE
SWELLS AS WELL AS INCREASING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE ROUGH SEAS AND HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...
VIEQUES...AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-013-VIZ001-211600-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.SU.Y.0001.110221T2200Z-110223T1000Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
408 AM AST MON FEB 21 2011

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 AM AST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY...WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL AT
LEAST 6 AM AST WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATING AND
EXTREMELY ROUGH SEAS AND HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS.

* WAVES AND SURF: BREAKING WAVES OF 10 TO 16 FEET OR LARGER ARE
EXPECTED... ALONG THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES SHOALS AND
REEFS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

* TIMING: SEAS WILL BUILD AND RAPIDLY SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL PASSAGES...BRINGING INCREASINGLY LARGE
BREAKING WAVES TO THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

* IMPACTS: HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* THESE SURGING WAVES WILL ALSO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR BEACH
EROSION DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

* THE TIMES AND HEIGHTS OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS ARE:

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 11:16 AM THIS MORNING AT 1.2 FEET.
12:07 AM TUESDAY MORNING AT 1.5 FEET.

ENSENADA HONDA CULEBRA: 10:42 AM THIS MORNING AT 0.8 FEET.
11:26 AM TUESDAY MORNING AT 0.7 FEET.

PUNTA MULAS VIEQUES: 11:02 AM THIS MORNING AT 0.9 FEET.
11:46 AM TUESDAY MORNING AT 0.8 FEET.

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 10:15 AM THIS MORNING AT 0.5 FEET.
12:20 AM TUESDAY MORNING AT 0.8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS SHOULD
STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS SUBSIDE.
PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE BREAKING WAVES
SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF ALL SIZES INTO
THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND STAY OFF
OF ROCK FORMATIONS

&&

$$

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN

RAM/JFR/JJA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

Good morning.A cool,rainy day in Puerto Rico.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
428 AM AST MON FEB 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MOVED SOUTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH FROM THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS
WELL AS ACROSS VIEQUES AND CULEBRA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT...AT AROUND 200 MILES NORTH
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY ACROSS THE FA TODAY WHILE DISSIPATES. THUS...SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION...INDUCING AN OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE
REGION...RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE WORKWEEK. IN FACTS...PW VALUES
WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 1.00 INCH BY TUESDAY. NEVERTHELESS...THE
EXPECTED NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT BANDS
AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT TJSJ... TJNR..
TISX AND TIST THROUGH AT LEAST 21/12Z DUE TO LOW CIGS AND PASSING
SHRA. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH VCSH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. INTMT PDS OF MTN TOP OBSCR DUE TO LOW CLD LYRS AND
PASSING SHRA ACROSS THE EAST SECTIONS OF PR TIL 21/12Z. LOW LEVEL
NE TO N WINDS 15-20 KT SFC TO 25K FT...BCMG WESTERLY AND INCR ABV.
OCNL SFC WND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS PSBL WITH PASSING SHRA AT ALL TAF
SITES THRU 21/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 12 TO 21 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL
BUILD QUICKLY TONIGHT...IN LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS...
PEAKING LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WHILE SUBSIDING. LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL PASSAGES
STARTING THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 6
PM AST THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 81 71 / 60 30 30 10
STT 83 72 83 71 / 40 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST MON FEB 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
BEFORE DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
TO UPPER LEVEL OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF WEAK BOUNDARIES ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. CURRENT TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATES THAT
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE BOUNDARIES IS TRAPPED BELOW H7.
THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE BROUGHT PESKY SHOWERS THAT AFFECTED PUERTO
RICO AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS MORNING. IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...
BOTH BOUNDARIES WERE PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE VEER TO THE EAST
AS THE HIGH SETTLES FARTHER SOUTHWARD OVER THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WE WILL LIKELY SEE LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS THE DRY AIRMASS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL INHIBIT THE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ISLANDS. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD
SIDE OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT THE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

BY THE END OF THE NEXT...ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY...SPREADING BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF
CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL BUILD AND QUICKLY
SPREAD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES STARTING THIS
EVENING...THEN PEAK EARLY TUESDAY...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE SWELLS AS WELL AS INCREASING MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE ROUGH SEAS AND
HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST
EXPOSED COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA... VIEQUES...AND THE
NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 73 81 / 30 30 20 20
STT 72 83 71 83 / 10 10 10 10

[Macrocane]

TODAY ONE OF THE COOLEST DAYS OF THE MONTH IN GUATEMALA, HONDURAS, EL SALVADOR AND COSTA RICA

Even though we don't have the influence of a cold front at the moment the region experienced this morning some of the coolest minimum temperatures of the month. Some interesting things that occurred today:
-In Guatemala the capital experienced the coldest low since mid January and Zacapa the coldest low of February.
-Only 2 days have had cooler minimum temps than today this month in San Salvador.
-La Esperanza (Honduras) registered its 2nd coldest minimum temp of the month.
-Guatemala and Honduras had near normal maximum temps but El Salvador had below normal highs, actually in San Salvador and San Miguel only two days of the month have had cooler highs.
-Managua registered the coolest high since February 8.
-San Jose registered the 2nd coolest low of the month.
-The rest of the region had near normal highs and lows.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 21°C (70°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 16.6°C (61.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 11°C (52°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 3.6°C (38.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 17°C (62.6°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.1°C (62.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.0°C (48.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 19.4°C (66.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 8°C (46°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.6°C (60.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 3.1°C (37.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.3°C (70.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.8°C (58.6°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 28.4°C (83.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26°C (79°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 19.1°C (66.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 37°C (99°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.3°C (86.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.0°C (68.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.7°C (98.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.0°C (80.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 16.7°C (62.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.6°C (90.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.7°C (69.3°F)

[cycloneye]

High Surf Advisory and Coastal Flood Watch

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1004 PM AST MON FEB 21 2011

...LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS SPREADING ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS...
...COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS...

.LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS HAVE REACHED AND PEAKED AT
THE BUOY JUST OUTSIDE OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA AT A HEIGHT OF
NEARLY 16 FEET AND A PERIOD OF 15 SECONDS AND WILL BUILD AND
QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS EVENING...THEN
PEAK EARLY TUESDAY...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THESE NORTH SWELLS AS WELL AS INCREASING MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE ROUGH SEAS AND
HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST
EXPOSED COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...AND THE
NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

PRZ001-002-005-008-012-013-VIZ001-221015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.CF.A.0001.110222T0204Z-110222T1400Z/
/O.CON.TJSJ.SU.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-110223T1000Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-CULEBRA-
VIEQUES-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
1004 PM AST MON FEB 21 2011

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AST
WEDNESDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AST WEDNESDAY.

* WAVES AND SURF: BREAKING WAVES OF 12 TO 18 FEET OR LARGER ARE
EXPECTED... ALONG THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES SHOALS AND
REEFS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

* TIMING: SEAS WILL BUILD AND RAPIDLY SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL PASSAGES...BRINGING INCREASINGLY LARGE
BREAKING WAVES TO THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PEAK AROUND 1 AM AST TUESDAY...BUT SUBSIDE SLOWLY.

* IMPACTS: DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME COASTAL
FLOODING IN THE LOWEST COASTAL AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
HEIGHT AND LONG PERIOD OF THE WAVES COMBINING WITH HIGH TIDE.

* THESE SURGING WAVES WILL ALSO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR BEACH
EROSION DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE AND POSSIBLE ROAD FLOODING OF
HIGHWAY 187 BETWEEN PINONES AND LOIZA.

* THE TIMES AND HEIGHTS OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDES FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS ARE:


SAN JUAN HARBOR: 12:07 AM TUESDAY MORNING AT 1.5 FEET.
12:00 PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 1.1 FEET.

ENSENADA HONDA CULEBRA:11:33 PM TONIGHT AT 0.9 FEET.
11:26 AM TUESDAY MORNING AT 0.7 FEET.

PUNTA MULAS VIEQUES: 11:53 PM TONIGHT AT 1.1 FEET.
11:46 AM TUESDAY MORNING AT 0.8 FEET.

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 12:20 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT 0.8 FEET.
10:19 AM TUESDAY MORNING AT 0.3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS SHOULD
STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE. PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE
BREAKING WAVES SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF
ALL SIZES INTO THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE
LINE AND STAY OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SALT
WATER FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD
BE ALERT FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...AND TAKE ACTION TO
PROTECT PROPERTY.

DRIVERS SHOULD REMAIN WARY OF WATER CROSSING THE ROAD AND HIDING
POTHOLES...KEEPING IN MIND THAT SALT WATER IS CORROSIVE.

&&

$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST TUE FEB 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC JUST
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY
AND STABLE WEATHER REGIME ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DETECTED OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. NOT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS MORNING. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...JUST
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INDUCE A DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN AND MODERATE
TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FA. THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
BECOMES MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT TROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES FARTHER EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. PWAT VALUES DROPPED BELOW 1.0 INCH...BUT WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE ONE INCH BY FRIDAY...WHEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION...INDUCING AGAIN AN OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS
THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS ARE FCST ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREVIOUS TJSJ
UPPER AIR SOUNDING AS WELL AS SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS...LOCAL OBS
AND RADAR VELOCITY WIND PROFILE SHOWED OVERALL NE WIND FLOW BTW 10
TO 20 KT FM SFC-20K FEET...THEN BACKING AND INCREASING WITH HEIGHT
ABV...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL IMPACTS IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES TODAY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE SWELLS AS WELL AS A MODERATE
TO FRESH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE ROUGH SEAS
AND HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST EXPOSED COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...
VIEQUES...AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 81 72 / 20 20 20 20
STT 83 71 83 69 / 10 10 10 10