Texas Fall-2015

[TheProfessor]

Just saw a map of what September-November has looked like in the 5 strongest El Ninos before this one, though the U.S still has time to try to get back to an average or below average temp for each respected region, we are probably quite a bit far behind due to an above normal September and October for a lot of areas.


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[Ntxw]

I think the data set is different also. It is warmer now than it was in the 60s and 70s skewing the plot. So 1981-2010 climate base will make it seem cooler. Many of those years had very cold Novembers which is what really got it going.

[weatherdude1108]

Tuesday/Wednesday continues to look very promising for widespread rain... and it appears a Gulf low gets involved on the GFS(the low is deep in the Gulf but combines with the frontal moisture).

and behind that front... maybe some 60s/low 70s for highs towards the end of next week?! and widespread 40s for lows?!

May Friday be the last near 90 degree day for about 6-7 months.

Yeah, the 0z Euro really ramped up rainfall late next week for much of the state. GFS shows less but still *some* rain next week with a decent frontal passage. I've seen this before and had the operational runs from both the GFS and Euro yank the promise out from under us ... so I'll buy into this around Monday of next week.

Hope the pumpkins don't melt out there ... I hear there's already a shortage this year.

I'm with Porta on this one. I won't buy anything until the day before or day of. Been fooled to many times with these silly model runs.

[weatherdude1108]

It's weird seeing some of the trees starting to show Fall colors, and it's in the 90's.

You got that right. Some trees with tiny leaves behind my alleyway are yellow and falling already. It is weird seeing all the leaves blow around with a hot wind blowing in your face. Doesn't seem right.

Yeah, does seem weird. Happening here too. But what I think is mostly happening is the trees are dry from this flash drought and heat and shedding some of the older leaves to conserve their water, which looks to many like Fall foliage based on the cooler temps and lower Sun angle. I'm sure the Sun angle/change of seasons is a factor too.

In my case, the one large native Cedar Elm tree in my backyard is being eaten by squirrels.

They're going after the new Fall seeds growing on the twigs. They're stripping the leaves and twigs off, creating a carpet of twigs and leaves in my backyard. They do this every year, but it seems excessive this year. Tree still looks okay, but I wish I could find something to scare the little "tree rats" (as my brother calls them) off to give this poor old tree a break! I don't care for these tree rats myself. They have eaten wires in my attic at my other house. Anyway.

[weatherdude1108]

:uarrow: Funny you should mention pumpkins. Not sure if this could have an effect on or winter, but I just read that the Northwest passage will be closed indefinitely by ice. It mentioned the melt was 3 weeks shorter than the average, with areas of ice still having 10’ of ice. Later the article mentioned a shortage of pumpkins and Thanksgiving pie.

I have seen some stories about the ice up there, mostly in the Hudson Bay area. Here is a video I saw the other day. Good information. Probably for a different thread, but it talks about cold weather.

https://youtu.be/GE_f2wbt4N8

[TheProfessor]

:uarrow: I think the data set is different also. It is warmer now than it was in the 60s and 70s skewing the plot. So 1981-2010 climate base will make it seem cooler. Many of those years had very cold Novembers which is what really got it going.

Someone was nice enough to use a different, much longer averaging period with the same Ninos and though it's not as cold it's still fairly below normal for most of the U.S.


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[CaptinCrunch]

It's weird seeing some of the trees starting to show Fall colors, and it's in the 90's.

Those aren't Fall colors your seeing, that's vegetation dying and turning brown from lack of rain fall.....lol

[Ntxw]

Good thing is the Alaskan trough, eastern extension of Aleutian low, is retrograding to the Aleutians. So no more fire-hose into North America.

[TheProfessor]

Good thing is the Alaskan trough, eastern extension of Aleutian low, is retrograding to the Aleutians. So no more fire-hose into North America.

A fire-hose would cool us off though Maybe no more flame thrower would be more accurate?

[Ntxw]

Good thing is the Alaskan trough, eastern extension of Aleutian low, is retrograding to the Aleutians. So no more fire-hose into North America.

A fire-hose would cool us off though Maybe no more flame thrower would be more accurate?

That would be a good analogy. Fire-hose though means the Pacific jet screaming in the Pacific NW rains rains and more rains for western Canada orographic lift +EPO and warm Pacific air vs Continental

It kickstarted the +EPO and warm pattern we've been in after the early month cool shot. Thanks to ex-hurricane OHO

[Brent]

It's weird seeing some of the trees starting to show Fall colors, and it's in the 90's.

Those aren't Fall colors your seeing, that's vegetation dying and turning brown from lack of rain fall.....lol

TBH, I always thought some of them changed just because of the much shorter days now... they know that winter is coming I guess.

[Ntxw]

The Ukmet (per Joe Bastardi) is in alignment with the Euro for winter. Lots of ridging in Western and central Canada and low heights across the southern US. This would be ideal for snow lovers here

[Portastorm]

For those of you on Facebook, WxSouth came out with its winter forecast. Many of you will probably salivate while reading it!

https://www.facebook.com/notes/1149049311791789/

[Ralph's Weather]

For those of you on Facebook, WxSouth came out with its winter forecast. Many of you will probably salivate while reading it!

https://www.facebook.com/notes/1149049311791789/

Interesting write-up and I agree with his main point that with the very warm Pacific and Atlantic the US is almost guaranteed to be cool and El Nino should lead to a moist flow out of the Pacific. That combo should give us some fun. He is focused on the SE so he is looking at the -NAO which tends to focus storms in the East and SE that can work out like it did in 09/10 for Texas though.

[Brent]

For those of you on Facebook, WxSouth came out with its winter forecast. Many of you will probably salivate while reading it!

https://www.facebook.com/notes/1149049311791789/

09-10 analog...

[weatherdude1108]

All I know is right now at Mabry, the relative humidity is 11%. True desert air. I may as well be in inland Southern California. This feels more like a La Nina in August than an El Nino in October. But, the temperature is 89, but it only feels like 85!

Current conditions at
Austin City, Austin Camp Mabry (KATT)
Lat: 30.32°NLon: 97.77°WElev: 656ft.

Fair
89°F
32°C
Humidity 11%
Wind Speed NE 6 mph
Barometer 30.06 in (1016.2 mb)
Dewpoint 29°F (-2°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 85°F (29°C)
Last update 13 Oct 12:51 pm CDT

[Ntxw]

Another El Nino year often overlooked is 1965-66. It's not the magnitude of this El Nino but was very strong, stronger than 1957 and a tad below 1972. December was brutally warm but January was very cold, especially for an El Nino Feb was no slouch either. STJ kicked in strong. 7.3 inches of snow fell that winter at DFW

[dhweather]

I'm sure this will change, but at least there's some green on there.

[Ntxw]

Interesting write-up and I agree with his main point that with the very warm Pacific and Atlantic the US is almost guaranteed to be cool and El Nino should lead to a moist flow out of the Pacific. That combo should give us some fun. He is focused on the SE so he is looking at the -NAO which tends to focus storms in the East and SE that can work out like it did in 09/10 for Texas though.

It's a fairly easy forecast for everybody. Basically every outlet or meteorologist is calling for above normal north and west parts of the US, below normal south and southeast. All major El Nino's essentially look like this with a stronger subtropical jet. Signal is strong so confidence of that configuration is high confidence for most rightfully so. It's very rare you will see the masses (including NOAA) call for essentially the same thing with different flavors of it, some have nicer colors and some poke the cold a little further north along the east coast . The question is how cold is the air coming from Canada? Will the -AO be sustained? What will the EPO do?

[Brent]

KTKI in McKinney is reporting light rain...

http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KTKI.html

as I look out my window and don't even see clouds.