Texas Spring 2020

[TheProfessor]

I have no idea what the 12z Euro is trying to do with this crazy onshore flow in southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi next week, but what I do know is that I don't like it.

[Cpv17]

I have no idea what the 12z Euro is trying to do with this crazy onshore flow in southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi next week, but what I do know is that I don't like it.

Interesting to note that the CPC is more bullish on rain over Texas than SELA, but in the past few runs the Euro has been crushing that area.

[TheProfessor]

I have no idea what the 12z Euro is trying to do with this crazy onshore flow in southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi next week, but what I do know is that I don't like it.

Interesting to note that the CPC is more bullish on rain over Texas than SELA, but in the past few runs the Euro has been crushing that area.

The GFS favors onshore flow on the northern Texas coast so there's a split in the models in that case. We'll have to see how that evolves over the next few days.

[bubba hotep]

Wouldn't be surprised to see some storm coverage extending back westward across DFW. Not much model support but like some of the things on mesoanalysis.

[aggiecutter]

This past Saturday was surprisingly a severe weather day in NE Texas and SW Arkansas. There were 10 confirmed Tornado touchdowns in the Texarkana area Saturday afternoon. The Tornado in the link below was captured by a Game Warden at Lake Wright Patman, which is only about 10 miles SW of Texarkana:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3B-grHylqE

[jasons2k]

Latest update from Jeff Lindner:

Active weather pattern will return to much of TX Friday into much of next week.

Upper level ridge over the state currently supporting near record heat will slowly erode and become replaced by a trough of low pressure by this weekend. At the surface a surge of tropical moisture from the western Caribbean Sea will move into the TX coast starting and Saturday and lasting into much of next week.

Friday-Monday:
Upper level trough will advance slowly into TX with periods of showers and thunderstorms each day. Expect meso scale processes and potentially thunderstorm complexes to drive much of the weekend weather and as we saw last weekend those storm complexes can greatly alter post complex forecasts. Point is that a much more active weather pattern will be in place starting on Friday…and possibly as early as Thursday afternoon as a short wave over west TX tonight moves to near I-35 by early Thursday.

Next Week:
Upper level trough is forecast to close off into a slow moving or stalled upper level/mid level low over west TX. This feature will slowly move ESE/SE toward the NW/W Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. SE TX is currently forecast to remain on wet and active side of this feature through much of next week with continued shower and thunderstorm chances. Will have to see how the situation evolves as the mid level circulation enter over the western Gulf of Mexico by the middle of the week. At this point most guidance keeps the system in the mid and upper levels.

Very Long Range (First week of June):
There is growing consensus that large scale patterns will become increasingly favorable for the formation of an active monsoon trough over portions of central America the first week of June. Depending on where this feature forms (eastern Pacific or from the Caribbean into the southern Gulf of Mexico) there could be an increased threat of tropical cyclone formation. Something to put in the back of your mid for now, but nothing to be concerned about at the moment.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
713-684-4000 (main) | 713-684-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1

[Haris]

tomorrow gonna be interesting!

[Cpv17]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/WyTpCf3/HRRRSGP-prec-radar-032-1.png [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/SB6c5WQ/HRRRV4-SGP-prec-radar-030.png [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/JcsPWfX/NAMNSTSGP-prec-radar-034.png [/url]


tomorrow gonna be interesting!

Dang!!

[Ntxw]

Some localized regional flooding will be a concern the next week. The upper pattern right now is very ripe for heavy rainfall and isolated bouts of severe weather, but flooding will be the main concern.

500mb weakness will cutoff from the main flow and meander in the S Plains, in particular Texas for awhile.

[bubba hotep]

Some sneaky storm potential from eastern DFW out towards Paris this afternoon, wouldn't be surprised to see a tornado or two.

[gpsnowman]

I just realized we are days away from the summer thread. Losing track of days is easy in Covid time. I am constantly checking to see what day it is.

[Brent]

I just realized we are days away from the summer thread. Losing track of days is easy in Covid time. I am constantly checking to see what day it is.

I've been essential working my regular schedule since March so its not as weird for me but I can definitely see that

It does feel like summer has snuck up on us though this year I mean Covid basically took away most of the spring

[bubba hotep]

Some sneaky storm potential from eastern DFW out towards Paris this afternoon, wouldn't be surprised to see a tornado or two.

SPC has pulled the 2% Tornado back SW to include DFW. Now to see if we get any storms?

[weatherdude1108]

Some widespread hefty totals on the 12Z GFS.

[Brent]

I pulled up TWC's app earlier and there is a high chance of rain basically from this weekend til June

[South Texas Storms]

Some widespread hefty totals on the 12Z GFS.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020052112/gfs_apcpn_scus_64.png

Yes please!

[Haris]

Ugh day 1 was a bust.

Oh well, this is just the very beginning

[bubba hotep]

Tough pattern FWD had 60% coverage for this afternoon, then lowered it to 30%, then we got nothing. Now the 3k NAM has this for tomorrow evening??

[cheezyWXguy]

Tough pattern FWD had 60% coverage for this afternoon, then lowered it to 30%, then we got nothing. Now the 3k NAM has this for tomorrow evening??

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest-conus/dallas/refc/1590105600/1590192000-POyepy5I26U.png

Just saw that. Spc is going to have to expand that slight risk south if that run starts a trend.

[Brent]

Tough pattern FWD had 60% coverage for this afternoon, then lowered it to 30%, then we got nothing. Now the 3k NAM has this for tomorrow evening??

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest-conus/dallas/refc/1590105600/1590192000-POyepy5I26U.png

Lol I was just gonna post that

There's a 2nd line around midnight

the 12km NAM has nothing during the day with another after midnight line