MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0110
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0139 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN FL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 28...
   
   VALID 031939Z - 032045Z
   
   WW SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 20Z.
   
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM SW EDGE OF TAMPA BAY SEWD ACROSS
   DE SOTO COUNTY THEN EWD OVER NRN PORTION LAKE OKEECHOBEE.  SOME
   SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS -- PARTICULARLY ALONG AND S OF OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY WHERE SFC-BASED BUOYANCY IS MAXIMIZED AND MORE DISCRETE
   CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE POSSIBLE.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE
   EWD...GRADUALLY RISING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER SWRN COAST.  RIGHT
   ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ELY FLOW COMPONENT OPTIMALLY ELONGATES
   HODOGRAPHS AND MAXIMIZES DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  ACCORDINGLY...CELLS
   CROSSING THIS BOUNDARY MAY TIGHTEN A LOW-MIDLEVEL MESOCYCLONE...WITH
   ACCOMPANYING/BRIEF WINDOW OF HAIL OR TORNADO RISK.
   
   S OF BOUNDARY...WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT
   HODOGRAPH AREA.  ISOLATED STRONG/POTENTIALLY DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS ARE
   POSSIBLE AS WELL FROM TSTMS ALONG AND S OF BOUNDARY.
   HOWEVER...THICK ANVIL CANOPY STREAMING FROM MCS OVER OPEN GULF MAY
   LIMIT FURTHER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OVER AREA.  ORGANIZED SEVERE
   RISK APPEARS TOO LOW TO MAINTAIN OR RE-ISSUE WW.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 02/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
   
   27918293 28038217 27508077 27188018 26428044 25838188

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0111
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0234 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN LA AND CENTRAL/ERN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 29...
   
   VALID 032034Z - 032230Z
   
   CONTINUE WW ALONG AND E OF E EDGE OF PRIMARY PRECIP BAND...WHERE A
   FEW SUPERCELLS HAVE PERSISTED. MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING
   HAIL...OCCASIONAL SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE.  NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY
   ABOUT 23Z E OF THIS WW IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE.
   
   SUPERCELLS CROSSING MS RIVER FROM TENSAS PARISH...AND EXITING WARREN
   COUNTY MS...ARE MOVING VARIABLY TOWARD ENE THROUGH ESE AT 30-35
   KT...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND OCCASIONAL DAMAGING
   GUSTS. ASSOCIATED LEADING EDGE OF STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT
   ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD DIABATICALLY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS ACROSS
   CENTRAL MS...AMIDST FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...HELPING TO MAINTAIN
   ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.  SEVERAL REPORTS OF HAIL UP TO 1.75
   INCHES DIAMETER HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM BENEATH THIS CONVECTION
   DURING PAST 2 HOURS...AS WELL AS A 61 KT GUST ESTIMATE FROM MADISON
   PARISH.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG
   MLCAPES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OF INSOLATION ACROSS
   ERN PORTIONS WW.  KINEMATICALLY...WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO SMALL 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS...BUT WITH RIGHTMOST
   OBSERVED MOTIONS INPUT...0-1 KM SRH 100-150 J/KG STILL CAN BE
   DERIVED FROM JAN VWP.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 02/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...
   
   31469517 32449382 33289167 33459064 32799028 31169246
   30809424 31099510

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0112
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0319 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN FL PANHANDLE TO NWRN FL
   PENINSULA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 032119Z - 032315Z
   
   SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER GULF COAST BETWEEN
   PFN-AQQ AND SEWD THROUGH FL COASTAL BEND.  DAMAGING HAIL/GUSTS ARE
   POSSIBLE AND TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS WELL ONCE
   SFC DEW POINTS INCREASE NEAR COAST.  AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR
   POSSIBLE WW.
   
   TSTM COVERAGE HAS INCREASED ACROSS NERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO
   DESTABILIZATION...WEAK CINH...AND LIFT ALONG/N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
   BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED AT 21Z FROM SRQ AREA NWWD TO NEAR BUOY
   42036...BECOMING DIFFUSE FARTHER NW TO ROUGHLY 65 S PFN.  BOUNDARY
   SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY OR DRIFT NWD OVER THIS REGION AS IT
   CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.  AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE BUOYANT
   THROUGH THIS EVENING TO ITS N AS OUTFLOW POOL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
   AND MOIST/WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES BOOST LOW LEVEL THETAE.  ALTHOUGH
   SOME DIABATIC SFC COOLING MAY RESTRICT INCREASE IN SBCAPE...SUCH A
   STABLE LAYER WOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW AND MAY NOT PRECLUDE EFFECTIVE
   PARCEL FROM REACHING SFC.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED
   MUCAPES TO NEAR 2000 J/KG...WITH BULK SHEAR 60-65 KT IN BUOYANT
   LAYER...SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS. LEFT-MOVING/ANTICYCLONIC SUPERCELL
   ALREADY IS EVIDENT INVOF NWRN END OF BOUNDARY...ABOUT 60 S PFN AND
   MOVING NEWD TOWARD COAST.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 02/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
   30138578 30428503 30658404 30528273 29748210 28588191
   28388245 28438271 28908281 29068313 29598350 30028405
   29678472 29538510 29658536

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0113
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0410 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 032210Z - 032345Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS
   THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS.
   
   STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTM -- AROUND 30 SW APF/NAPLES AT 22Z --
   APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH THE SOUTHWEST FL PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT
   HOUR OR SO. WITH COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ROUGHLY STALLED NORTH OF
   A NAPLES TO PALM BEACH CORRIDOR...THIS STORM APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH
   THE SOUTHERN COLLIER OR PERHAPS NORTHERN MONROE COUNTY COAST BY
   AROUND 2300-2330Z. WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
   EXISTING ACROSS SOUTHERN FL...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE
   FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES PER 21Z RUC SOUNDINGS/LOCAL WSR-88D
   VWPS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND/OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO
   THREAT EARLY THIS EVENING.
   
   ..GUYER.. 02/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...
   
   26028185 26248155 26538080 26908012 26288005 25658087
   25538130

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0114
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0508 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHERN IL INTO EXTREME WESTERN KY
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 032308Z - 040015Z
   
   WITH SMALL HAIL REPORTED EARLIER IN CAPE GIRARDEAU COUNTY MO...SMALL
   HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 00Z WITH LINE OF TSTMS
   MOVING SEWD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN IL TO NEAR THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI
   RIVER CONFLUENCE AND EXTREME WESTERN KY. THESE LOW TOPPED STORMS
   /EQUIL LEVEL HEIGHTS AROUND 15K FT/ ARE OCCURRING IN PRESENCE OF
   COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MODESTLY HEATED/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
   RATE ENVIRONMENT. ADJUSTED 22Z RUC SOUNDINGS FEATURE UP TO 400 J/KG
   MUCAPE. ANY REMAINING HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER
   00Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER FURTHER COOLS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 02/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...
   
   37888892 37878830 37578837 37048873 37218945 37718914

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0115
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0608 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE/FAR SRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 30...
   
   VALID 040008Z - 040145Z
   
   A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 30 WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
   LIKELY IN THE CNTRL AND ERN PART OF THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. WW 30 WILL BE REPLACED SHORTLY ACROSS MUCH OF NRN FL. IN
   ADDITION...A NEW WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
   WRN FL PANHANDLE AND SRN AL LATER THIS EVENING.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS SEVERAL SMALL MESOSCALE
   CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OVER THE ERN FL PANHANDLE EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE
   NERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE ACTIVITY IS FORMING IN RESPONSE TO A LEAD
   SHORTWAVE EJECTING NEWD OUT OF A LARGE TROUGH IN THE MS VALLEY. AS
   THE STRONG LIFT SHIFTS EWD THIS EVENING...THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
   SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A LARGER MCS AND DRIFT ENEWD ACROSS THE
   REMAINDER OF NRN FL THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG
   VERTICAL SHEAR WITH A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET EXTENDING NWD ALONG THE
   WEST COAST OF FL WHICH IS FORECAST TO EXPAND NWD THIS EVENING. IN
   RESPONSE...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE ALLOWING AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT TO CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10
   SOUTHEAST OF THE TALLAHASSEE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. LARGE
   HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
   ROTATING STORMS.
   
   OTHERWISE...REDEVELOPMENT BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS SRN AL AND THE WRN
   FL PANHANDLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE MAIN THROUGH SHIFTS EWD
   TONIGHT. IF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CAN OVERCOME A WEAK CAPPING
   INVERSION...LINEAR DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE POSSIBLE WEST OF WW 30 LATE
   THIS EVENING. A WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE
   POSSIBLE AND A NEW WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF THIS SCENARIO PANS
   OUT.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 02/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...MOB...
   
   29428462 29688578 30148714 30618775 31188761 31688709
   31218543 30968442 30828224 30768176 30078151 29408188
   29328256 29378363

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0116
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0849 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 040249Z - 040445Z
   
   LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A
   SUPERCELL MOVES EWD INTO THE MIAMI AREA OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
   
   AN ISOLATED STRONG SUPERCELL IS ONGOING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE
   MCS IN SRN FL. THE MCS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SWLYS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC
   ANALYSIS. SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE
   VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE SUPERCELL. IN
   ADDITION...WSR-88D VWP IN SRN FL SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50
   KT WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 1 KM. AS A
   RESULT...CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
   WITH A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT POSSIBLE. AS THE STORM MATURES...A
   BOWING STRUCTURE WOULD BE MORE LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND
   DAMAGE IN THE MIAMI AREA INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 02/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...
   
   25248060 25358087 25688088 25848085 25978058 25968030
   25948015 25798012 25388030

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0117
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1123 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 32...
   
   VALID 040523Z - 040700Z
   
   A LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN FL MAY HAVE A
   SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL TORNADO
   THREAT IS POSSIBLE...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WOULD BE THE MOST
   LIKELY THREATS WITH THE ACTIVITY.
   
   SCATTERED STORMS ARE REDEVELOPING ALONG A ZONE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE JUST SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN NRN FL. THE STORMS
   ARE FORMING NEAR AN AXIS OF LOCALLY HIGHER INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH
   MLCAPE VALUES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...THE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A 45 KT LOW-LEVEL
   JET. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AS SHOWN
   ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MOST
   LIKELY THREATS ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT MAY STILL OCCUR.
   AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO DROP FURTHER OVERNIGHT AND THE
   ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES DRIFTS EWD...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD
   GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS NRN FL.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 02/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
   28708246 28858315 29128340 29788328 30478254 30818161
   30398102 29698119 29028162

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0118
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0119 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL/SERN GA/FAR SRN SC
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 32...
   
   VALID 040719Z - 040815Z
   
   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FROM NRN FL
   THROUGH SERN GA TO FAR SRN SC. HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
   THREAT...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT A NEW WW.
   
   BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE VALID PART OF TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 32 HAS
   CONTINUED TO STABILIZE AND FOR THE MOST PART BEEN CONVECTIVELY
   OVERTURNED.  THUS...MINIMAL TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED WITH ANY
   REMAINING STORMS...GIVEN MOST NEW ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED.
   
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWED STRONG INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS THE ERN
   HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE
   ERN GULF ACROSS NRN FL TO GA/CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
   RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH APPROACH OF NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH NOW
   LOCATED OVER LOWER MS VALLEY.  ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP THE STABLE
   BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE SERN STATES IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ELEVATED
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES... AND
   SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH
   HAIL.
   
   ..PETERS.. 02/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...
   
   29958385 30828306 32388263 32818124 32488029 30818134
   29878127 29278105 28758214 28638272 29428346

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0119
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0349 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN GA AND FAR NRN FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 040949Z - 041115Z
   
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS
   CENTRAL/SRN GA AND POTENTIALLY INTO FAR NRN FL.  A FEW OF THESE
   STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND
   GUSTS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT AREA WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR ANY CHANGES IN POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY
   INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT...WHICH AT 09Z
   EXTENDED FROM NERN GA SWWD TO SWRN GA AND THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE.
   ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THIS COLD FRONT
   ARE WEAK...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN
   UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE...IS
   AIDING IN DESTABILIZATION FOR NEAR SURFACE TO SURFACE BASED STORMS.
   SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
   ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SPREADS EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN GA AND NRN
   FL THROUGH 18Z.  HOWEVER...MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A
   WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT.
   
   INCREASING EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE
   FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH ISOLATED HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
   THREAT.
   
   ..PETERS.. 02/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...
   
   30538522 32368430 33068370 33458254 33158130 32198062
   30798122 30448150 30198214 30198383 30258524

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0120
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0844 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S FL AND KEYS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 041444Z - 041645Z
   
   LINE OF TSTMS IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS S FL AND KEYS THROUGH
   FORENOON HOURS.  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR GUSTS THAT -- WHILE LARGELY
   BELOW 50 KT SEVERE CRITERIA -- STILL MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
   OCCASIONAL WIND DAMAGE.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM GIVEN MRGL SVR
   POTENTIAL AND LIMITED AREA AFFECTED.
   
   INFLOW LAYER IS FCST TO BE FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AS MAIN CONVECTIVE
   BAND REACHES ATLANTIC COASTAL COUNTIES...EVERGLADES AND KEYS.
   HIGHEST AMBIENT THETAE IS EVIDENT ATTM OVER KEYS...WHERE MARINE AIR
   MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS LOW 70S F AND TEMPS EXPECTED
   TO APCH 80 WITH SOME DIURNAL HEATING.  ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED EYW RAOB
   AND RUC SOUNDINGS YIELD MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG.  BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
   MASS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS PALM BEACH/BROWARD/SERN COLLIER AND
   MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES IS FCST TO DESTABILIZE ADDITIONALLY FROM SFC
   DIABATIC HEATING.  KINEMATIC PROFILES SUPPORT CONTINUED LINEAR
   ORGANIZATION WITH EMBEDDED LEWP/BOW FEATURES...WITHIN WHICH
   PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING GUSTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED.
   SOME BOUNDARY LAYER VEERING WITH HEIGHT IS EVIDENT AND FAVORABLE
   STORM-RELATIVE 0-3 KM WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE.  HOWEVER...WITH
   STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING LIFTING AWAY FROM REGION...FLOW JUST
   ABOVE SFC SHOULD VEER WITH DEEP-LAYER FLOW REMAINING LARGELY
   PARALLEL TO FORCING BOUNDARY.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 02/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...
   
   27248050 27358025 27358015 27127999 26697993 25918003
   25438014 24988041 24738070 24528132 24448176 24468242
   24638300 24668273 24668217 24818145 25228124 25628139
   25808177 26378155 26378125 26568100 26748092 26788056
   27108046

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0121
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1104 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS...EXTREME
   S-CENTRAL/SERN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 041704Z - 041900Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR TEXT
   
   SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH 21Z WITH CONVECTION MOVING
   NEWD ACROSS ERN HALF SC...INTO CENTRAL/SRN NC. DAMAGING GUSTS AND A
   TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.  AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
   WW.
   
   GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS IS UNDERWAY AS WEAK SFC HEATING
   -- MODULATED BY CLOUD COVER -- COMBINES WITH WAA TO BOOST SFC
   THETAE.  AS A RESULT...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CINH WEAKENING
   AND LIFTED PARCELS OVER REGION ARE BECOMING SFC BASED WITH SBCAPES
   AROUND 500 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...AND EXPECTED TO REACH
   TO NEAR 1000 J/KG THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.
   ACCORDINGLY...COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS SLOWLY INCREASING WITHIN BROKEN
   BAND OF CONVECTION...EXTENDING AT 1640Z FROM ABOUT 20 SW CLT TO 20 W
   NBC AND MOVING NEWD 30-35 KT.  VWP AND MODEL SOUNDING WINDS YIELD
   FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEARS FOR BOWS AND SUPERCELLS...I.E. 60-70 KT
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ELONGATED BY 40-50 KT
   LLJ.  EXPECT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS TO
   TRANSFER MOMENTUM DOWNWARD FROM LLJ AS WELL...RESULTING IN DAMAGING
   GUST THREAT WITH CONVECTION OVER REGION.  WARM FRONT ANALYZED INVOF
   VA BORDER SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NWD...SPREADING FAVORABLE BOUNDARY
   LAYER THETAE INTO EXTREME S-CENTRAL/SERN PORTION VA AS WELL.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 02/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...
   
   32138069 32678091 34018093 35058126 35898141 36538021
   36537585 35627543 35227548 35027608 34587648 34667691
   34367759 33807793 33857853 33507903 33097922 32667987

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0122
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1209 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/CENTRAL OH AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 041809Z - 042245Z
   
   PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
   WESTERN/CENTRAL OH AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MI...WITH MDT/PERHAPS LOCALLY
   HEAVY WET SNOW DEVELOPING BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW RATES MAY
   REACH 1 IN/HR AFTER 21Z.
   
   MATURE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
   REGION...WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS MAXIMIZED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
   IN VICINITY OF LAKE HURON AND DEEPENING 994 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
   NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER AT 18Z. ALTHOUGH RAIN INITIALLY EXISTS ACROSS
   MUCH OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MI/CENTRAL OH AT MIDDAY...COMPACTING THERMAL
   FIELDS ON PERIPHERY OF EARLY-OCCLUDING CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT A
   RELATIVELY QUICK CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO
   TREND IN AVAILABLE TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM NEAR DETROIT/DAYTON...THIS
   SCENARIO APPEARS WELL DEPICTED VIA 15Z RUC/12Z NAM FORECAST VERTICAL
   PROFILES AND 09Z SREF CONSENSUS...WITH A CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW LIKELY
   BY 21Z FOR A DETROIT-TOLEDO-FINDLAY-COLUMBUS CORRIDOR. MID LEVEL
   /600-800 MB/ FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING /ESPECIALLY AS DEPICTED BY THE
   GFS AND RUC/ IN PRESENCE OF WEAK STATIC STABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE
   FOR SSW-NNE BANDING AND ENHANCED SNOW RATES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..GUYER.. 02/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...
   
   43758266 42948258 41868293 40928230 39758282 39108328
   39018358 39178420 39608472 41808439 42608415 43728341

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0123
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1252 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WA CASCADES
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
   
   VALID 041852Z - 042315Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WA CASCADES THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR POSSIBLE.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS CORE OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE
   PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WA
   CASCADES INTO EARLY EVENING. LATEST MESONET OBSERVATIONS AUGMENTED
   BY 00 HOUR RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND
   3500 FT. AS VERTICAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO COOL...LATEST RUC FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 2000-2500 FT BY
   EARLY EVENING. STRONG UVVS COINCIDENT WITH DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER AND
   HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
   EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS OF 50-60 KTS SAMPLED
   IN 2-5 KM LAYER IN ACARS SOUNDINGS /EAST OF SEATTLE/ WILL CREATE
   BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 02/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...SEW...PQR...
   
   48972088 48592062 47242106 46662131 46212161 46162200
   46282221 46482224 47052197 47322170 48032166 48442196
   48712211 48962205

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0124
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0340 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA...PORTIONS NERN NC..EXTREME S-CENTRAL MD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 042140Z - 042315Z
   
   SEVERE POTENTIAL IS SHIFTING NWD ACROSS SERN VA WITH WIND DAMAGE AND
   A TORNADO OR TWO STILL POSSIBLE.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT HAS ARCHED NWD ACROSS VA/NC BORDER
   AND THROUGH RIC AREA.  FRONT MAY REACH WRN SHORE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
   LOWER POTOMAC RIVER AREA...INCLUDING SRN FRINGES DC METRO...BEFORE
   NIGHTFALL.  MOST OF SERN VA IS IN MOIST/WARM SECTOR WITH SFC DEW
   POINTS UPPER 50S/LOW 60S...AND TEMPS PEAKING MID 60S TO 70 F.
   ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS YIELD SBCAPES 300-700
   J/KG...ALONG WITH ELONGATED LOW-MIDLEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND FAVORABLE
   DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEARS.  60-70 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AND
   200-300 J/KG SRH IN 0-1 KM LAYER ARE POSSIBLE INVOF WARM FRONT.  TWO
   PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BANDS -- LOCATED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF SFC COLD
   FRONT -- WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH
   EARLY EVENING. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION SHOULD REMAIN
   LINEAR.  HOWEVER SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE MAXIMIZED WITH BOW OR
   EMBEDDED SUPERCELLULAR ELEMENTS CROSSING WARM FRONTAL ZONE...WHERE
   LOW LEVEL SHEAR/VORTICITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 02/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...
   
   35977707 35637805 36057831 36367863 37497854 38447710
   38187631 37787624 37437631 36907596 36777612 36547589
   36197647

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0125
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0717 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 050117Z - 050545Z
   
   MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
   MUCH OF EASTERN LOWER MI THROUGH THE EVENING. SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR
   WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DEPICTS OCCLUDING/CLOSED LOW OVER
   THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH 989 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER LAKE
   HURON AT 01Z. ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CYCLONE...ELEVATED
   MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS WRAPPING WESTWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN IN
   PRESENCE OF STRONG UVVS. AS SEEN IN CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...MID
   LEVEL /800-600 MB/ FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
   BANDING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW RATES. 00Z DETROIT RAOB FEATURES
   DEEPLY SATURATED /1.5 KM/ DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. COUPLED WITH AMPLE
   UVVS...AND ENHANCED BY MOIST TRAJECTORIES OFF OF LAKE HURON...SNOW
   RATES OF 1 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z. IN
   ADDITION...INCREASINGLY STRONG NORTH WINDS -- AS SEEN IN LOWEST FEW
   KM TRENDS OF DETROIT/ALPENA WSR-88D VADS -- WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE
   TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 02/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
   
   42948245 42188291 41998331 42088381 42398420 43698429
   44788525 45038539 45488506 45698455 45588398 45368356
   44858328 44578324 44088347 43848323 44048298 43978273
   43868258 43428246

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0126
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0918 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA AND EXTREME WRN NJ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 050318Z - 050445Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OR SO
   ACROSS SERN PA AND EXTREME WRN NJ INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA AREA. DUE
   TO THE VERY LOCALIZED NATURE AND SHORT DURATION OF THE THREAT...A WW
   IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   FORCED LINE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WITH LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING
   CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
   ALONG EWD MOVING COLD FRONT. THE LINE IS MOVING ENEWD AT AROUND 35
   KT. THE STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS WITH
   INTENSIFYING 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH NWD EJECTING
   IMPULSE. POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST FOR SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM TO
   BE TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE. INFLOW FROM WARM SECTOR ACROSS SRN NJ
   WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S MAY HELP TO SUSTAIN THE STORMS ANOTHER
   HOUR OR SO...BEFORE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE
   BOUNDARY LAYER N OF THE WARM FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SERN
   PA THROUGH CNTRL NJ.
   
   ..DIAL.. 02/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...
   
   39567564 40257614 40627529 40347467 39717503

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0127
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1150 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 050550Z - 051015Z
   
   MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST TO EAST
   CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 12 UTC. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 IN/HR ARE
   POSSIBLE IN THE REGION...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TOWARD MORNING.
   
   MID LEVEL OCCLUDED CYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER LAKE ERIE...WITH
   ASSOCIATED 986 MB SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST TIP
   OF LAKE ONTARIO AT 05 UTC. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE AREAL COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY OF MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW HAS INCREASED SINCE 04 UTC
   OVER NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. ONGOING SNOW WILL CONTINUE AS LATEST
   RUC AND 00 UTC NAM INDICATE STRONG UVVS /Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/ ALONG
   NORTH/NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL OCCLUSION THROUGH 12 UTC.
   MOISTURE TRANSPORT WRAPPING AROUND CLOSED LOW ALONG WITH FAVORABLE
   PROFILES OF TEMPERATURE AND ASCENT SUPPORT DENDRITIC GROWTH AND 1
   IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES UNTIL 10 TO 12 UTC. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
   BELOW FREEZING WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION AND BLOWING SNOW
   EXPECTED.
   
   ..BRIGHT.. 02/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
   
   45508504 45688470 45528400 45228339 44838332 44328333
   44118356 43808386 43608373 44008312 43968288 43798265
   43358249 43128259 42968267 42818287 42728326 42898393
   43338413 43698439 44098454 44678519 45158529

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0128
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0253 PM CST MON FEB 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LAKE EFFECT AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL NY
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 062053Z - 070130Z
   
   HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
   EARLY EVENING...WITH A SOUTHWARD DRIFT OF ORGANIZED BAND ACROSS
   LEWIS/SOUTHERN JEFFERSON/NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES...FURTHER
   ENHANCING ONGOING HEAVY SNOW INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. SNOW RATES
   OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
   
   HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE LEE OF LAKE
   ONTARIO...HIGHLIGHTED BY MOIST UPSLOPE INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND
   WELL ORGANIZED/LONG CONNECTED BAND ACROSS JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN
   LEWIS COUNTIES NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF WATERTOWN. THIS SINGLE BAND IS
   FURTHER ENHANCED BY LONG TRAJECTORIES OVER UPSTREAM LAKES /NAMELY
   HURON/ PER SATELLITE IMAGERY/VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA. AS SUGGESTED BY
   WRF-4KM/18Z RUC GUIDANCE...A SLOW SOUTHWARD DRIFT OF THE EXISTING
   SINGLE BAND SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS TRAJECTORIES TREND
   TOWARD THE NW. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/AMPLE LAKE INDUCED CAPE
   IN PRESENCE OF 3 KM INVERSION HEIGHTS/MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL
   PROMOTE 2-3 IN/HR SNOW RATES.
   
   ..GUYER.. 02/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
   
   43877636 44187514 44077440 43547456 43257625

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0129
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0621 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN AR INTO EXTREME SRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 101221Z - 101715Z
   
   SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AR INTO EXTREME SRN
   MO BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIER
   SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL OR NRN AR BY
   AFTERNOON WITH RATES BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE.
   
   EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NERN MO SWWD THROUGH
   NWRN AR...SRN OK AND NWRN TX. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SWD TODAY WITH
   CP AIR SPREADING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY IN ITS WAKE.
   MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY BEING TRANSPORTED NEWD THROUGH TX AND INTO THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY ALONG THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET DOWNSTREAM FROM A SRN
   STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO. MEANWHILE A NRN STREAM
   IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO
   THE MIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING
   MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THIS FORCING WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT
   WITH THE MOISTURE SPREADING NWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
   CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS OF SNOW ACROSS CNTRL/NRN AR
   INTO EXTREME SRN MO. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE SURFACE WET BULB
   ZERO LINE FROM CNTRL AR NWWD INTO NERN OK. A WARM LAYER ABOVE THE
   SURFACE SUGGESTS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS RAIN IN
   AR...BUT THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE EFFECTS OF WET
   BULB COOLING AND COLD ADVECTION LOWER THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE TO
   BELOW FREEZING.
   
   ..DIAL.. 02/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...
   
   35339073 34749235 34919401 35859423 36529375 36859146
   36429046