Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

The first long post of this thread has new things that I added,such as the Caribbean Hurricane Network link (They have strorm2k link at their site) and a new web cam from the island of Anegada. As we approach the 2011 hurricane season,it was necessary to have the Caribbean Network link of stormcarib.com here for our Caribbean friends. Any of you that may have more web cams from different areas of the Caribbean or Central America that are not yet at that first post of thread,bring them and I will add.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
230 PM AST TUE MAR 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NORTH NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW
OVER THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRIDAY. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED MOSTLY DRY AIR ADVECTION
WITH ONLY SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS PROPAGATING SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS THE LAYERED
PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSES SHOWED DECREASING PW VALUES ACROSS
THE REGION...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUED TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH.
THEREFORE...OTHER THAN A FEW LOCALLY INDUCED LIGHT SHOWERS...NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND FOR THE NEXT
TWO TO THREE DAYS. HOWEVER...THE PREVAILING NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
MAY STILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE EVENING...AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...WITH THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE AND AN OVERALL SUBSIDENT AND STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PREVAIL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE IN SIGHT
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THRU AT
LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE
NNE AT 5 TO 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS IN SOME
AREAS AROUND 10-15 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 81 71 83 / 10 10 20 20
STT 69 82 71 82 / 10 10 20 20

[Gustywind]

[tropicana]

STILL NO EXTREME HEAT IN CARIBBEAN

Regional Highs and Rainfall ( rain is 7pmET Mon-7pmET Tues) for
Tue Mar 8 2011

Piarco Int. Airport, Trinidad 31.2C 88F trace
Maraval, NW Trinidad 28.3C 83F 1.8mm
Crown Point, Tobago 29.3C 85F
Point Salines, Grenada 29.0C 84F
Grantley Adams, Barbados 29.5C 85F trace

Arnos Vale, St Vincent 30.1C 86F
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 29.6C 85F trace
Vigie Airport, St Lucia 29.3C 85F
Melville Hall, Dominica 28.2C 83F 11.9mm
Canefield Airport, Dominica 29.4C 85F 0.3mm

LeLamentin, Martinique 29.2C 85F 3.8mm
LeRaizet, Guadeloupe 28.0C 82F 6.0mm
Golden Rock, St Kitts 27,4C 81F 0.8mm
VC Bird, Antigua 27.7C 82F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 27.8C 82F

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 30.8C 87F
Kingston, Jamaica 30.8C 87F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 31.2C 88F
Havana, Cuba 30.5C 87F
Key West, Lower Keys Florida 27.2C 81F
Marathon, Upper Keys FL 28.9C 84F
Miami, Florida 27.8C 82F
Nassau, Bahamas 27,4C 81F
Hamilton, Bermuda 20.8C 69F 0.3mm

Hato Airport, Curacao 29.2C 85F
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 31.0C 88F
Flamingo AIrport, Bonaire 29.4C 85F

Cayenne, French Guiana 31.2C 88F 9.0mm
Timehri, Guyana 30.2C 86F 0.8mm

-justin-

[cycloneye]

The Hurricane Tomas cyclone report has been finnally released.Here is the part about when it crossed St Lucia with 85 kts. You can read the whole report at the cyclone reports thread at Talking tropics forum on the first post.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109371&hilit=&start=0

The estimated maximum intensity of this hurricane, 85 kt, is based on a maximum 10-
min wind observation of 77 kt from Hewanorra Airport in St. Lucia at 1926 UTC 30 October,
adjusted by applying a gust factor of 1.11 to convert from a 10-min average to a maximum 1-min
average (Harper et al. 2009). In addition, there was an SFMR-based surface wind measurement
of 85 kt at 0537 UTC 31 October from the 53WRS.

[Macrocane]

The temps for today (March 8) in Central America:
-Belize and Guatemala had above normal lows, Honduras below normal and the rest of the region near normal.
-Near normal highs occured in the whole region excluding El Salvador and Nicaragua that had below normal highs.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.3°C (66.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15°C (59°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 8.5°C (47.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 20°C (68°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.3°C (64.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.3°C (50.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 19.6°C (67.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 9°C (48°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 14.3°C (57.7°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.3°C (61.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.6°C (40.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 20.4°C (68.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.4°C (57.9°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 28.1°C (82.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 38°C (100°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.9°C (87.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.9°C (71.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.0°C (98.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 31°C (88°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 25.3°C (77.5°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.9°C (82.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.3°C (91.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.6°C (72.7°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST WED MAR 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND AN OVERALL VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL RESULT
IN GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AND PROBABLY BEYOND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AND PROBABLY
BEYOND...EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS AND
VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...STILL EXPECT SMALL
PATCHES OF MOISTURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO
TIME AND COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE VERY BRIEF
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND A COUPLE OF PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED...PASSING MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG OVER THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 7 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. SLOWLY SUBSIDING
NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. TOOK
THE COURSE OF LEAST REGRET AND LEFT THE BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS FOR TODAY...
ALTHOUGH IF LOCAL BUOY DATA TRENDS CONTINUE...THIS MAY NEED TO BE
CANCELLED LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SMALL BOAT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS...WITH VERY
LITTLE IF ANY CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS...TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. INCREASINGLY DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LONG TERM DRYNESS/BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING FIRE DANGER THREAT. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS
AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO CONTINUE TO DISPOSE OF ALL FLAMMABLE
MATERIALS IN THEIR PROPER RECEPTACLES AND REPORT ANY SMOKE OR FIRE
SIGHTINGS TO THE LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 71 83 72 / 20 20 20 20
STT 82 70 83 72 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST WED MAR 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC AND EXTEND INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SATURDAY. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA
WILL DIMINISH AS IT MOVE TOWARDS PUERTO RICO AND THEN PASSES
FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH LONG WAVE TROUGHING TO THE NORTH...FLOW WILL BE
GENERALLY FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. AIR AT MID
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE VERY DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST FROM ITS POSITION NEAR
35N 55W AND DISSIPATE NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE
WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA AFTERWARD DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND DUE TO A HIGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS THAT MERGES WITH A STRONG HIGH OUT OF
CANADA MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE DISAPPEARED FROM THE LOCAL RADARS...AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AT THE SURFACE AND MOISTURE
DROPS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. A BAND OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWER ON THE NORTHEAST COAST EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO
RETURN IMMEDIATELY. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OF NORTHEAST
WINDS AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THRU AT
LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM
THE NORTH NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 7 FEET AT ALL BUOYS. WINDS
REMAIN MODERATE AND WILL NOT GENERATE SEAS ABOVE 7 FEET BEFORE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ710 HAS
BEEN CANCELED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 83 72 81 / 30 30 30 30
STT 70 83 72 81 / 20 20 20 20

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall ( rain is 7pmET Tues-7pmET Wed) for
Wed Mar 9 2011

Piarco Int. Airport, Trinidad 31.7C 89F
Maraval, NW Trinidad 31.3C 88F 6.9mm
Crown Point, Tobago 29.2C 85F trace
Point Salines, Grenada 28.0C 82F 1.3mm

Grantley Adams, Barbados 27.5C 82F 9.0mm
Rockley, S. Barbados 28.6C 84F 4.6mm
Long Beach, SE Barbados 26.7C 80F 6.1mm
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 27.9C 82F 4.9mm

Melville Hall, Dominica 28.6C 84F 0.3mm
Canefield Airport, Dominica 29.2C 85F

Golden Rock, St Kitts 27.1C 81F
VC Bird, Antigua 26.9C 80F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 27.8C 82F

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 29.6C 85F trace
Kingston, Jamaica 30.2C 86F trace
Montego Bay, Jamaica 30.6C 87F
Havana, Cuba 30.1C 86F
Key West, Florida 26.7C 80F
Miami, Florida 27.2C 81F
Nassau, Bahamas 25.5C 78F trace
Hamilton, Bermuda 19.9C 68F 0.5mm

Hato Airport, Curacao 27.7C 82F 0.7mm
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 29.8C 86F
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 28.8C 84F 0.4mm

Timehri Airport, Guyana 27.5C 82F 37.8mm
Cayenne, French Guiana 30.3C 86F 22.0mm

-justin-

[Macrocane]

Hi! The temperatures today in Belize were above normal. In Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama the temps were pretty close to average. In Honduras and El Salvador the lows were warmer than normal but the highs were cooler than normal. A cold front will reach the region tomorrow night or early Friday so cooler minimum temps and moderate northerly winds are expected for the last days of the week.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.4°C (65.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14°C (57°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 5.1°C (41.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.9°C (66.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.4°C (50.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.4°C (70.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 15°C (59°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.7°C (62.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.3°C (39.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.8°C (73.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.0°C (57.2°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 30.7°C (87.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.7°C (69.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 38°C (100°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.8°C (87.4°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.4°C (68.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.8°C (94.6°F) Coldest since Janaury 9.
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.4°C (83.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 18.3°C (64.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.2°C (91.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.2°C (72.0°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
452 AM AST THU MAR 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A GENERALLY
FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI
THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES AFFECTING THE
NORTHEASTERN TIP OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS CULEBRA AND VIEQUES EARLY
THIS MORNING. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WERE MINIMAL.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS EMBEDDED IN
THE TRADES APPROACHING TO THE LOCAL AREA...AS A RESULT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VI DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AN OVERALL
DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA. IN
FACT...TPW PRODUCT AND PROGNOSTIC SOUNDINGS INDICATED
PRECIPITABLE WATER BELOW OR AROUND ONE INCH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE...EXPECT EARLY MORNING LIGHT SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADES ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM
TIME TO TIME EACH MORNING...WITH CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED...AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON CONVECTION...IF ANY...SHOULD DISSIPATE
BEFORE SUNSET LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED...PASSING MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS...AND LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...
WITH SEAS BELOW 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 16 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 81 72 / 20 30 30 10
STT 82 71 82 70 / 30 20 20 10

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
203 PM AST THU MAR 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...WITH A RIDGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL MAINTAIN WEST
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS.

AT MID LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY WHILE THE RIDGE OVER HISPANIOLA
MOVES EAST TO TAKES ITS PLACE. AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE NEAR 29N 49W WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
AND DISSIPATE...CAUSING GRADIENTS TO SLACKEN OVER THE LOCAL AREA
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF
MISSISSIPPI INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CAUSING THE TRADE WINDS TO
INCREASE. THIS HIGH WILL MERGE WITH A HIGH DRIFTING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF CANADA MONDAY AND SETTLE ALONG 27 NORTH NORTH OF THE AREA BY
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SWIRLS OF MOISTURE ARE MOVING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE
AREA FROM THE FLOW AROUND THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A FEW
OF THESE HAVE AND WILL COME ON SHORE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO EVEN AS SHOWERS HAVE SLIPPED THROUGH THE NORTHERN
VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 7 DAYS
DESPITE THE DEPARTURE OF THE MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW AND THE SURFACE
LOW THAT HAS BEEN IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST 48 TO 72
HOURS. 06Z GFS HAD SUGGESTED A MORE MERIDIONAL PATTERN THAT WOULD
ALLOW TROPICAL MOISTURE TO REACH UP TO A MID LATITUDE FRONT OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY AFTER NEXT...BUT NOW THE 12Z RUN FAVORS A MORE
EAST-WEST ORIENTATION TO THE FRONT WHICH MAY CROSS THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST SOLUTION BECOMES VERY CHOPPY
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS OF THE 240 HOUR RUNS...BUT EXPECT
THAT THE CURRENT DRY PATTERN WITH A FEW ISOLATED PATCHES OF
MOISTURE FROM TIME TO TIME IN NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL HOLD
THROUGH THAT TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED AREAS...PASSING MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...AND LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG OVER
THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS CONDITIONS WILL BE JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER IN THE CARIBBEAN.
ANOTHER IMPULSE OF SWELL WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 81 71 82 / 40 40 10 10
STT 70 81 71 83 / 30 20 10 10

[Macrocane]

Hi! The northerly winds have not begun yet in El Salvador, but some showers developed yesterday in a few locations in the eastern part of the country, more organized showers and thunderstorms have developed today in the western and northern parts. These are the stations that registered the highest rainfalll yesterday:

Perquin 17 mm/0.67 inches
San Francisco Gotera 25.5 mm/1.0 inch

[Macrocane]

Good afternoon, bad news from El Salvador as strong showers and thunderstorms (unusually for this time of year) developed today over parts of El Salvador and have caused a lot of problems as they fell in a short period of time and the winds were intense, some of the problems have been:

-32 houses lost their roofs in Ayutuxtepeque, a town that is part of metro San Salvador.
-A man was rescued from an overflowing river in Apopa (north of San Salvador)
-A school in San Martin (east of San Salvador) suffered from flooding.
-A few trees fell over cars in Santa Ana in the western part of El Salvador.
Thankfully no deaths have been reported only material damages.

Some of the accumulations of rain that fell this afternoon:

Ilopango 37.8 mm/1.49 inches
Zacatecoluca 29.6 mm/1.17 inches
San Salvador 10.4 mm/0.41 inches
La Hachadura 10.5 mm/0.41 inches
Santa Ana 8.6 mm/0.34 inches

On this link to a local newspaper you will find a gallery of the damages: http://www.laprensagrafica.com/component/ignitegallery/view/4052.html

[tropicana]

Macro! sorry to hear about the damage from those thunderstorms in El Salvador today wow!


Regional Highs and Rainfall ( rain is 7pmET Wed-7pmET Thurs) for
Thu Mar 10 2011

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 30.8C 87F 0.2mm
Maraval, NW Trinidad 27.6C 82F 5.8mm
Crown Point, Tobago 28.5C 84F
Point Salines, Grenada 28.4C 83F

Grantley Adams, Barbados 29.2C 85F (dewpoints to 16C 61F)
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 29.3C 85F
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 29.4C 85F

Melville Hall, Dominica 27.1C 81F 0.2mm
Canefield Airport, Dominica 27.4C 81F 0.2mm (Low 19.4C 67F)
LeLamentin, Martinique 28.8C 84F (Low 17.4C 63F)

Golden ROck, St Kitts 27.3C 81F
VC Bird, Antigua 27.4C 81F (dewpoints to 14C 58F)
San Juan, Puerto Rico 27.2C 81F trace

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 29.0C 84F
Kingston, Jamaica 30.2C 86F trace
Montego Bay, Jamaica 30.4C 87F
Havana, Cuba 29.4C 85F 10.0mm
Key West, Florida 26.1C 79F 6.9mm
Marathon, Florida 29.4C 85F 11.2mm
Miami, Florida 27.8C 82F 19.8mm
Nassau, Bahamas 27.1C 81F
Hamilton, Bermuda 20.2C 68F 0.5mm

Hato Airport, Curacao 28.1C 83F
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 30.2C 86F
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 30.6C 87F

Cayenne, French Guiana 30.1C 86F 3.6mm
Timehri Airport, Guyana 26.9C 80F 6.0mm (to 1pmET)

-justin-

[Macrocane]

Macro! sorry to hear about the damage from those thunderstorms in El Salvador today wow!

Thanks tropicana, fortunately drier conditions are expected on the next few days. These are the temps registered today in Central America:

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.0°C (64.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16°C (61°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 5.9°C (42.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.1°C (64.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.5°C (52.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 16°C (61°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.3°C (61.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 3.3°C (37.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 20.8°C (69.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.3°C (57.7°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 28.3°C (82.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 18.0°C (64.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.6°C (88.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 18.2°C (64.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.8°C (96.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.9°C (84.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 14.0°C (57.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.1°C (91.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 23.7°C (74.7°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
912 PM AST THU MAR 10 2011

.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR OBS SHOW A BAND OF LLVL
CLOUDS WITH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS MOVING SWWD OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MOVED ON-SHORE ACROSS THE
SAN JUAN METRO AREA AND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGED FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS
TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...THE MODELS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
RELATIVELY DRY/FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND ONE
INCH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH LIGHT CONVECTION IN
THE LATE EVENING/EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND WIDELY ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GFS BRING
PATCHY CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT BETTER CONDITIONS FOR SCATTERED CLOUD
COVER/SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT RAIN AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT OR ABOUT
020-060 ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ AND TIST THROUGH AT LEAST 11/12Z.
SKIES WILL BE FEW-SCT AFTER 11/14Z. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KTS.

[Macrocane]

Hi, El Salvador is under tsunami warning and the sea level may experience a change at 4:00 pm today, that's in about 11 hours, I will keep you updated hopefully nothing major will happen as it was the case with Chile earthquake last year, but let's be prepared.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
434 AM AST FRI MAR 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS WILL
RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
WERE NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE USVI
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY RANGED FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A DRY SLOT APPROACHING TO THE
LOCAL AREA. AS A RESULT...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE...CONTINUE TO
EXPECT CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TODAY. HOWEVER...A GENERALLY FAIR AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AN OVERALL DRY AND
STABLE AIR MASS DOMINATES THE LOCAL AREA. IN FACT...TPW PRODUCT AND
PROGNOSTIC SOUNDINGS INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER BELOW OR AROUND
ONE INCH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...TONIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY EXPECT A FEW EARLY MORNING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM TIME TO
TIME...WITH CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. AFTERNOON CONVECTION...IF ANY...SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THE RIDGE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BUT MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THUS...CONTINUE TO
EXPECT LIGHT MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WITH CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AT JSJ/USVI AND LEEWARD ARPTS THRU
13Z TODAY WITH PASSING SHRA...THEN VFR CONDITIONS ALL AIRPORTS.
WINDS MAINLY NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KT DURING THE DAY THEN DIMINISHING
TO LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER SUNSET. NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
LOOKS TO BE EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.MARINE...ANOTHER IMPULSE OF SWELL WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 64 DEGREES WAS SET AT
CHRISTIANSTED AIRPORT/USVI YESTERDAY. THIS TIED THE OLD RECORD OF
64 SET BACK IN 1951.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 70 82 71 / 50 10 10 20
STT 82 69 82 72 / 30 10 10 20