Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
356 AM AST MON MAR 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...FLAT RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THRU MID WEEK. A MID UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WRN ATLC LATE IN THE WEEK AND GRAZE
THE LOCAL AREA. AT THE SFC...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVR THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND CONTINUE TO RESULT IN BKN STRATOCU AND SCT
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WITH MINIMAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION. LATE IN
THE WEEK...FLAT RIDGE GETS SHUNTED SWD AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF
DIGS ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. BOTH 14/00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW
THIS TROF EVOLVING INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH THE ECMWF BEING FURTHER
SOUTH AND STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE TAKING IT SOUTH OF 30N. THE
00Z GFES MEAN KEEPS IT AS AN OPEN TROF GRAZING THE FCST AREA. NET
RESULT WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION IN THE THU-FRI TIME
FRAME. TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF 60W BY NEXT MON WITH SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BUILDING AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES ARE
ANTICIPATED FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS TJSJ AND TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT
14/15Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 4-6 FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7 FT OFFSHORE
WATERS IN NORTHEAST SWELLS. WILL REEVALUATE AGAIN BEFORE CWF
ISSUANCE WHETHER SCA NEEDS TO BE ISSUED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO HINGE ON AMOUNT OF SKY
COVER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THIS WILL HAVE A STRONG EFFECT ON MAXT
AND MIN_RH VALUES. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH MUCH OF THE WEEK TO
PREVENT A MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. BETTER CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAINS THU-FRI.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 73 83 74 / 40 30 20 40
STT 83 72 84 72 / 20 20 20 20

[Macrocane]

Good morning! I new earthquake occured this dawn, this time the epicenter was located offshore El Salvador and the quake had a magnitude of 4.6, again no damages are reported thankfully. More info here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107415&p=2120275#p2120275

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST MON MAR 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...FLAT RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THRU MID WEEK. A MID UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WRN ATLC LATE IN THE WEEK AND GRAZE
THE LOCAL AREA. AT THE SFC...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
NOR THEN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
SHOWERS ACCUMULATIONS WERE MINIMAL. AT THIS MOMENT...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITY OF PONCE. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWEST OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
BEFORE SUNSET.

MOISTURE PATCHES EMBEDDED IN TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL REGION...GENERATING SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STABLE AND RELATIVE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE INCOMING WEEKEND...BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THRU 14/21Z.

&&

.MARINE...MODELS CONTINUE TO OVERESTIMATE THE WAVE HEIGHT
CONDITIONS...THEREFORE DROPPED THE WAVE SIZE TO ACTUAL MARINE
CONDITIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 82 73 82 / 30 20 40 10
STT 72 83 72 83 / 20 20 20 10

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall ( rain is 8pmET Sun-8pmET Mon) for
Mon Mar 14 2011

HEAVY RAINS IN GUYANA, ALSO IN CURACAO AND ANTIGUA

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 30.9C 87F trace
Maraval, NW Trinidad 28.1C 83F 0.3mm
Crown Point, Tobago 28.4C 83F 4.0mm

Point Salines, Grenada 29.6C 85F
Grantley Adams, Barbados 29.2C 85F
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 29.5C 85F
Hewannora AiIrport, St Lucia 29.6C 85F
Vigie Airport, St Lucia 29.2C 85F

Melville Hall Airport, Dominica 29.2C 85F
Canefield Airport, Dominica 30.4C 87F trace
LeLamentin, Martinique 28.9C 84F trace

VC Bird, Antigua 27.5C 82F 15.0mm
Golden Rock, St Kitts 27.9C 82F 1.3mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 27.8C 82F 0.8mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 27.7C 82F
Kingston, Jamaica 30.8C 87F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 29.3C 85F
Havana, Cuba 27.6C 82F
Key West, Florida 25.0C 77F
Miami, Florida 25.0C 77F
Nassau, Bahamas 25.3C 77F
Hamilton, Bermuda 20.0C 68F

Hato Airport, Curacao 25.9C 78F 12.2mm (low 20.9C 69F)
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 29.8C 86F
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 28.2C 82F 2.9mm

Cayenne, French Guiana 31.1C 88F trace
Timehri Airport, Guyana 28.2C 83F 55.0mm

-justin-

[Macrocane]

The temperatures (lows and highs) were warmer today than yesterday in most of Central America except for a few locations in Belize and Guatemala. The observations:

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 19°C (66°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 15.3°C (59.5°F) Coldest since Feb 16.
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13°C (55°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 2.7°C (36.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 19°C (66°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.4°C (66.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 8.7°C (47.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.3°C (70.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 16°C (60.8°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.0°C (60.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 2.4°C (36.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 20.8°C (69.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.6°C (58.3°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 28°C (82°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 26.4°C (79.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 27°C (81°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.3°C (70.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 33°C (91°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.6°C (87.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.1°C (66.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.2°C (99.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.5°C (81.5°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 16.6°C (61.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.2°C (91.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.2°C (70.2°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
942 PM AST MON MAR 14 2011

.UPDATE...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSISTED
OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...AND THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. FORECAST NEXT FEW DAYS IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON
SATURDAY FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...BUT OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONGOING WEATHER
SITUATION...THEREFORE...NO CHANGED WERE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
A FEW EXCEPTIONS...MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TJMZ FROM 15/17-15/23Z
AND BRIEFLY AT ANYTIME AT TKPK AND TNCM. SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AT
ANYTIME ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PR THRU 16/02Z. SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO 15/15-16/02Z. LLVL WINDS ARE NE
5-15 KTS BELOW 10 KFT.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
408 AM AST TUE MAR 15 2011

.SYNOPSIS...FLAT RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THRU MID WEEK. MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A CDFNT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA NEXT TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS
WITH BKN STRATOCU AND SCT EARLY MORNING SHOWERS. RIDGE GETS
SHUNTED SWD BEGINNING FRI AS MID-UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE ATLC.
THIS WILL RESULT IN EROSION OF SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND THUS AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH SCT-NMRS SHOWERS FRI-SAT
AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF 60W EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH STRONG HIGH PRES EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE
WRN ATLC INCREASING THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT. THE DEEP TROF ACROSS
THE CNTRL ATLC WILL ALSO SUPPORT A CDFNT WHICH 00Z GFS SHOWS
PLOWING THRU THE AREA NEXT TUE. WHILE THE PWAT VALUES ARE FCST TO
COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE STRENGHTENING TRADES
AND PROXIMITY OF FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOTS OF CLOUDS
AND SCT-NMRS SHOWERS PRIMARILY AT NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES
ARE ANTICIPATED FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS TJSJ AND TJBQ THROUGH
ABOUT 15/15Z. SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BTW
15/17Z-15/22Z. LLVL WINDS ARE NE 5-15 KTS BELOW 10 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS MAINLY 4-6 FT IN NORTHEAST SWELLS ATLC WATERS.
3-5 FT CARIB WATERS. BUOY 41043 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING 6.5 FT AND
SLOWLY INCREASING. WILL WAIT UNTIL CWF ISSUANCE TO DECIDE WHETHER
TO ISSUE SCA FOR AMZ710 OR NOT. TRADES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY NEXT
WEEK WITH SCA LIKELY DUE TO WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE DANGER WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON AFTERNOON
SKY COVER AS THIS WILL HAVE A STRONG EFFECT ON MAXT AND MIN_RH
VALUES. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TO PREVENT A
MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING
TOMORROW WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL. BETTER
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS FRI-SAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 84 72 / 40 20 10 30
STT 83 72 84 71 / 20 10 10 30

[Macrocane]

Hi! I've uodated the Central American Cold Surges Thread with the obs from the cold front that reached the region last weekend.

[cycloneye]

There was a 3.0 quake just north of San Juan. See the details on the Eastern Caribbean Seismic Activity thread at the geology forum.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
322 PM AST TUE MAR 15 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...BEFORE
TROUGHINESS ALIGNS ACROSS OR MORE LIKELY JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN
BE FORCED ACROSS AND PAST THE FA MONDAY OR TUESDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST SOUTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR MORE LIKELY SATURDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECONDARY BOUNDARY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
TWO TO THREE DAYS...AS BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND INTERACT WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND PASSING
SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY
FOR THE WEEKEND (PASSING BOUNDARY) WITH BETTER DYNAMICS AND LESS
CAPPING. THESE CHANGES IN COMBINATION WITH LOCAL EFFECTS SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS WHICH SHOULD LINGER INTO AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...TIST...AND
TJBQ DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LLVL NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT 10 TO 20 KTS FROM THE SFC TO 10 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILD FIRE DANGER SHOULD INCREASE A BIT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS...WITH MORE
SUNSHINE...HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER FUEL DRYING IS
EXPECTED. STILL LOOKS LIKE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE PREVALENT
WETTING RAINS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 71 83 / 20 10 30 30
STT 72 83 71 83 / 10 10 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1008 PM AST TUE MAR 15 2011

.UPDATE...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSISTED
OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...AND THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. FORECAST NEXT FEW DAYS IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON
SATURDAY FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...BUT OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONGOING WEATHER
SITUATION...THEREFORE...NO CHANGED WERE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND OCNL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE SEEN IN PR. SOME PASSING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...TIST...TJBQ AND TNCM THRU
16/04Z. LLVL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 20 KTS FROM
SFC TO 10 KFT.

[Macrocane]

Good evening! Three earthquakes were felt in the last 24 hours in El Salvador, two of them had its epicenter offshore Guatemala. The magnitudes were: 2.4, 3.9 and 4.5 but no damages are reported. More info here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107415&p=2120464#p2120464

By the way, in a few minutes I will post the temps for today in Central America.

[Macrocane]

Today temps in Central America:
-Belize and El Salvador had above normal lows.
-Guatemala and Costa Rica had below normal lows.
-In Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama the minimum temps were near normal.
-Belize, El Salvador and Costa Rica experienced below normal highs.
-The rest of the region registered near normal highs.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 23°C (73°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 65.1°C (59.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13°C (55°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 2.1°C (35.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 19°C (66°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.7°C (67.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 8.8°C (47.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.5°C (70.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 15.9°C (60.6°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.5°C (59.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 2.5°C (36.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 20.8°C (69.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 12.4°C (54.3°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 26.9°C (80.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26°C (79°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.0°C (71.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.9°C (87.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.8°C (67.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.5°C (97.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 21.3°C (70.3°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.0°C (78.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 13.5°C (56.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.6°C (92.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.0°C (69.8°F)

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall ( rain is 8pmET Mon-8pmET Tues) for
Tue Mar 15 2011

THUNDERSTORMS KEEP DRENCHING THE GUYANAS

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 33.0C 91F 2.0mm *hottest since December 21/10)
Maraval, NW Trinidad 29.4C 85F
Crown Point, Tobago 30.1C 86F

Grantley Adams, Barbados 29.2C 85F
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 29.9C 86F
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 30.0C 86F
Vigie, St Lucia 29.5C 85F
LeLamentin, Martinique 29.3C 85F trace

Melville Hall, Dominica 29.9C 86F trace
Golden Rock, St Kitts 28.5C 84F trace
VC Bird, Antigua 27.7C 82F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 28.9C 84F 2.5mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 28.3C 83F
Kingston, Jamaica 30.1C 86F trace
Montego Bay, Jamaica 28.9C 84F
Havana, Cuba 29.4C 85F
Key West, Florida 26.1C 79F
Marathon, Florida 27.2C 81F
Miami, Florida 26.1C 79F
Nassau, Bahamas 27.2C 81F
Hamilton, Bermuda 20.6C 69F 0.5mm

Hato, Curacao 27.8C 82F
Flamingo AIrport, Bonaire 29.3C 85F
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 29.6C 85F 6.8mm

Georgetown, Guyana XX 49.0mm ( Thunderstorms- rain 8am-8pm)
Timehri, Guyana XX 80.0mm (Thunderstorms)
Cayenne, French Guiana 29.0C 84F 43.0mm

-justin-

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
346 AM AST WED MAR 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN BE FORCED ACROSS AND PAST THE FA
MONDAY OR TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST SOUTHEAST FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW TRANSPORTED PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN
THE MORNING...AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA...VIEQUES...AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS EXPECT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND PW VALUES OF LESS THAN 1.00 INCH.
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON SATURDAY FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST...BUT OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. GFS
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY THE LAST WEEK OF THE MONTH...THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST...OR
SOUTHEAST...INCREASING THE INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA
AND INDUCING WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTHERN COASTAL
AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND AT ALL
TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER QUICK PASSING CLDS MAINLY
BTW 020-080K FT AND ACCOMPANYING -SHRA/SHRA WILL LEAD TO TEMPO MVFR
EN ROUTE...ALONG WITH PSBL MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS OVR ERN INTERIOR OF
PR AT LEAST TIL 16/13Z. ALSO PSBL VCSH AT TJSJ...TJNR... TJBQ...TIST
AND TISX THRU 16/12Z. L/LVL NE WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KTS WILL CONTINUE
BLO 15K FT.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILD FIRE DANGER SHOULD INCREASE A BIT FOR
THURSDAY...AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS...WITH MORE SUNSHINE...
HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER FUEL DRYING IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 71 83 72 / 20 30 30 30
STT 83 71 83 72 / 10 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

There was a moderate quake between the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico.See the details at the Eastern Caribbean seismic activity thread

[Gustywind]

There was a moderate quake between the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico.See the details at the Eastern Caribbean seismic activity thread

Yep another one

[cycloneye]

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST WED MAR 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS FEATURE
SUSTAINS A MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MIGRATORY HIGHS WILL HELP SUSTAIN A RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...MAINTAINING A DRIER AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN
FACT...SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF 20-30 PERCENT
BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE AMOUNTS UPSTREAM OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. IN THIS PATTERN...MODELS GENERALLY SHOW FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS PWAT IS TO REMAIN LESS THAN ONE INCH DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH LIGHT CONVECTION IN THE MORNING
HOURS TO BUILD ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...GFS INDICATES A
MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE EAST AND SOMEWHAT BETTER UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THIS WILL KEEP MARINE CONDITIONS
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 70 83 72 83 / 20 20 30 30
STT 71 84 73 84 / 20 20 30 30

[Macrocane]

Hi! Widespread showers and thunderstorms developed yesterday afternoon in El Salvador, these are some of the rainfall amounts that were registered:

San Marcos Lempa 25.4 mm/1.00 inch
Ahuachapan 25 mm/0.98 inches
Cojutepeque 24 mm/0.94 inches
Sensuntepeque 19 mm/0.75 inches
San Salvador 16 mm/0.63 inches, Highest rainfall in San Salvador since October 25, 2010