Texas Spring 2019

[gpsnowman]

Over an inch of rain here

And today feels amazing out soak it up before summer sets in

Tomorrow should be amazing as well before some humidity comes back for a visit. I am ready for the next round of storms next week.

[Cpv17]

The operational GFS went from this on the 0z:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019041800/gfs_apcpn_scus_52.png

To this on the 12Z:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019041812/gfs_apcpn_scus_52.png

Rain bomb to donut hole over central Texas.

But the FV3-GFS has southern Texas in the higher totals.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019041812/fv3p_apcpn_us_64.png

The Euro looks the best imo. Widespread 2-5” for most of Texas with isolated totals approaching 10”.

[Cerlin]

Got some nice rain showers this morning around 10:30. Outed for about 3 minutes at a time for a few times

[Cpv17]

Looks promising!!

[bubba hotep]

Looks promising!!

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1555619678

Matches up with 12z Euro, not as wet as the Euro but headed in the right direction.

[Haris]

Rained for a couple more hours after the strong cell. Ended up with 1.7” . !

[Cpv17]

Ended up with 2.10” here and quite a bit of minor wind damage. Wind was so loud last night it woke me up at 3am. A couple miles from me a camper trailer was flipped over so I’m pretty sure we had at least 60mph winds here.

Does anyone know if the next round of weather next week has any severe potential or will it just be rain?

[Ntxw]

Ended up with 2.10” here and quite a bit of minor wind damage. Wind was so loud last night it woke me up at 3am. A couple miles from me a camper trailer was flipped over so I’m pretty sure we had at least 60mph winds here.

Does anyone know if the next round of weather next week has any severe potential or will it just be rain?

Heavy rain will be largest threat. But being that it is April, any thunderstorm could turn severe. Next week, due to quantity, we'll likely have more reports of tornadoes/hail than yesterday but it in terms of flashy-chase-worthiness probably not.

[Cerlin]

Storms moving into Denton county?? Severe thunderstorm warning? Am I crazy for not knowing this was gonna happen?

[Brent]

apparently a severe shower over Denton/Collin County...

I wasn't even paying attention and had Fox 4 on and went what

ok goody, I wasn't alone

[bubba hotep]

Nice graphic from FWD recapping yesterday. Yesterday was a good example of why Enhanced was added. The potential was certainly well above a Slight but the uncertainty would've probably prevented a MOD under the old system.

[bubba hotep]

[WeatherP1]

A surprise heavy shower and gusty winds on the east side of Dallas tonight. My Japanese maples are enjoying the mild wet spring. Spring foliage is almost as intense as last fall.

[Ralph's Weather]

We had precip for about 36 straight hours. Most fell between midnight and 6am when we got 2.5". Another half inch during the day today. Did not expect the line of storms we got this afternoon.

[Ntxw]

In part, from observation throughout the years, meridional flow (ejection of energy south to north or in that range i.e SW to NE) increases the likelihood of quickly forming MCS, or linear mode. That might be a reason why discrete cells didn't hold or break the midday cap quickly. Zonal flow, from west to east, is a better environment for those right turning super-cells. Ejection of vorticity for us sometimes is critical. It may not be an exact observation but when I look back at 5h various events this general idea does have some consistency. That's why during the warm season ULL systems that kick out from west to east sometimes way over-performs with hail and tornadoes.

Now the really big tornado days, you'll likely see the strong ribbon of energy in large scale zonal flow from the west. It's been awhile since we have seen one of those. 2011 had plenty of those in April and May with the large scale zonal flow in the southern US.

Edit: Right turn

[Texas Snowman]

Well, this is a little off topic here in this space.

But it’s what many of us suspected - Hurricane Michael has been upgraded to a Category 5 in NHC post season analysis.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL142018_Michael.pdf

[Cpv17]

What happened to all the rain on the models? Lol

[Haris]

What happened to all the rain on the models? Lol

It’s all still there. It’ll keep going up and down but the system is present.

Meanwhile, the new weeklies are wonderful !!

[Cpv17]

Looks like more of a threat to central Texas right now compared to SETX. Way too far out to really tell though.

[1900hurricane]

Ended up with 2.10” here and quite a bit of minor wind damage. Wind was so loud last night it woke me up at 3am. A couple miles from me a camper trailer was flipped over so I’m pretty sure we had at least 60mph winds here.

Does anyone know if the next round of weather next week has any severe potential or will it just be rain?

Heavy rain will be largest threat. But being that it is April, any thunderstorm could turn severe. Next week, due to quantity, we'll likely have more reports of tornadoes/hail than yesterday but it in terms of flashy-chase-worthiness probably not.

Yeah, I agree. Flow aloft looks pretty weak, which would mean some very good directional shear would be needed for notable severe weather. Hard to get the right low speed shear setup this time of year, but not impossible. May 15th, 2013 is actually a good example of such a setup. That event was nearly a month later than now, but it does highlight how such an event is possible.





Pretty crazy to see 30 kt of mid level flow combined with ESRH of about 400 m**2/s**2 with a good wind profile.