Florida Weather

[TheStormExpert]

Classic case of the front not making it fully through the state and stalling in Central Florida. Saw this with so many fronts last winter. At this point with it only being Early November I think we will most likely see them stall somewhere in the Florida Peninsula. The NAO is heading positive and not looking certain yet that it will go negative within the next two weeks.

[NDG]

Amazing what a wind shift will do in South Florida. Take West Palm Beach for example. I posted the last three observations below from the airport within 1 hour of each other. Temp has risen 11 degrees in 2 hours and 8 degrees in 1 hour with the wind shift off the warm Gulf stream current:

03 10:53 NE 15 G 21 10.00 Partly Cloudy SCT045 SCT250 76 53 45% 30.29 1025.7
03 09:53 N 6 10.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN048 BKN250 68 54 61% 30.29 1025.7
03 08:53 NW 9 10.00 Partly Cloudy SCT047 SCT250 65 52 63% 30.28 1025.4

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KPBI.html

I have seen even more dramatic shifts of 10, 15, and even 20 degrees when the winds shifts from NW to the NE.

Yeah, the magic of the warm gulf stream waters, tonight low 70s in SE & central coastal FL with easterly winds while is only 39 degrees in Tallahassee.

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: Classic case of the front not making it fully through the state and stalling in Central Florida. Saw this with so many fronts last winter. At this point with it only being Early November I think we will most likely see them stall somewhere in the Florida Peninsula. The NAO is heading positive and not looking certain yet that it will go negative within the next two weeks.

To borrow Lee Corso's catch phrase, not so fast my friend. The latest forecast show the NAO and AO both tanking around Nov 16. Still a bit too soon to say just how cold it will be across Florida, but long range 10 day GFS is forecasting some really cold air to come down into the CONUS east of the Rockies during that time.

[NDG]

I don't know about calling that NAO Tanking, but the neutral to negative NAO pattern overall continues.

One thing that I am excited about is the possibility of a fairly good chance of rain for my area Saturday night/early Sunday morning from a disturbance riding the subtropical jet.
It has been a good 3-4 weeks since the last good measurable rain in my neighborhood, the grass is already brownish.

[northjaxpro]

Well, NDG, as you can see above, I will re-state and say that the NAO and AO will be forecast to go "considerably negative" than moreso neutral based on what I am seeing in trends by the middle of this month..

[asd123]

northjaxpro and NDG: The teleconnections are definitely favorable for cold weather 10 days from now. Heads up for around Thanksgiving as there will be the major record breaking storm in the Bering Sea this Saturday and current SSW. This could mean a major arctic outbreak around Thanksgiving. But unfortunately this is not yet in the models' reach.

Thanskgiving storm info: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/20 ... ant_4.html

[northjaxpro]

I completely agree about the cold outbreak poised to come down into the CONUS asd123 during the next 10 days or so. At this time, looking at the long range models, the coldest of the air looks to stay over the Midwest and Plains. But, we should still monitor that closely as things can change.

Thanksgiving is still 3 weeks out asd123. The near historic extratropical storm (formerly Nuri) entering into the Bering Sea currently I would think would potentially have impacts with the teleconnections, moreso within the next 10-14 days across North America. Certainly a storm like that could indeed help tap and draw down some very cold air from the arctic regions into the CONUS, but it is far too early to assess that at this time. This time next week at the earliest we may have some idea on what may happen around Thanksgiving.

[asd123]

:uarrow: I completely agree about the cold outbreak poised to come down into the CONUS asd123 during the next 10 days or so. At this time, looking at the long range models, the coldest of the air looks to stay over the Midwest and Plains. But, we should still monitor that closely as things can change.

Thanksgiving is still 3 weeks out asd123. The near historic extratropical storm (formerly Nuri) entering into the Bering Sea currently I would think would potentially have impacts with the teleconnections, moreso within the next 10-14 days across North America. Certainly a storm like that could indeed help tap and draw down some very cold air from the arctic regions into the CONUS, but it is far too early to assess that at this time. This time next week at the earliest we may have some idea on what may happen around Thanksgiving.

BTW, Bering Sea effect on teleconnections is 17-21 days, not 10-14. (10-14 is Typhoon Rule)

Anyway, like you said we have to wait till we get closer and closer to Thanksgiving for the models to sort things out. I would say there might be some very cold air with the SSW and this historic Bering Sea storm.

Like you said, this upcoming cold into Florida is still 10 days out, and can change. But as it stands now, models seem to be hinting (for cfla.) lows in the upper 40's the coldest. (things can change, especially 10 days out).

[northjaxpro]

Oh yeah, the old "Bering Sea Rule" concept with the teleconnections. Yeah, asd123, I am very aware of this observing weather patterns through my years of studying the atmosphere. I guess extratropical Nuri will really get us weather geeks watching how this unfolds regarding the Typhoon Rule vs Bering Sea Rule (10-14 days vs. 3 weeks) debate with effects on the teleconnections. It has always been a great debate and it will be really highlighted as this month progresses.

[asd123]

Oh Yeah, the old "Bering Sea Rule" concept with the teleconnections . Yeah, asd123, I am very aware of it. I guess extratropical Nuri will really get us weather geeks really going regarding the Typhoon Rule vs Bering Sea Rule (10-14 days vs. 3 weeks) debate with effects on the teleconnections. It has always been a great debate and it will be really highlighted as this month progresses.

So with that said, given the historic storm and the ongoing SSW, what do you (and others as well) think about temperature and storm potential around Thanksgiving. Will Central Florida see 30's? You tell me!

[northjaxpro]

Oh Yeah, the old "Bering Sea Rule" concept with the teleconnections . Yeah, asd123, I am very aware of it. I guess extratropical Nuri will really get us weather geeks really going regarding the Typhoon Rule vs Bering Sea Rule (10-14 days vs. 3 weeks) debate with effects on the teleconnections. It has always been a great debate and it will be really highlighted as this month progresses.

So with that said, given the historic storm and the ongoing SSW, what do you (and others as well) think about temperature and storm potential around Thanksgiving. Will Central Florida see 30's? You tell me!

Too early to say yet asd123 as for how cold it could get here in Florida by Thanksgiving. This is the beauty and fun of this. The potential of cold and storm potential is definitely plausible near the time of Thanksgiving, but we have to see how the teleconnections will unfold. I through the years have followed the Typhoon Rule, affecting teleconnections over North America within 14 days as typhoons recurve away from Japan. But, Nuri is such an extreme and powerful storm in its extratropical transition in that if it "bombs" out in the Bering Sea in the next few days like the models are indicating, I would be inclined to think that ridging near the arctic regions would commence and could bring significant cold outbreaks down into the the CONUS later this month. Whether it be the Midwest, or Plains or Northeast US getting the serious push of the cold is what remains to be seen. It is also possible that we could see a widespread cold event for either the Central or Eastern U.S. as the month progresses. We already know that a significant cold outbreak is likely on the way for much of the Eastern CONUS within the next 10 days or so out.

We will know more maybe as to how the pattern set-up with regards to teleconnections evolution with regards to looking out to Thanksgiving I think by the end of this upcoming weekend at the earliest.

[asd123]

north jax pro and others: after researching from the experts, I have to correct myself and say that the Typhoon Rule is actually 6-10 days, not including the 14th day which is too long.

[northjaxpro]

I have generally used up to two weeks with the Typhoon Rule, but most of the astute, prominent mets go by the 6-10 day concept.

[NDG]

Wow, I think FL had the the hottest thread last night, lol.
Sorry I couldn't join it, went to bed early. Great discussion.
Models are already hinting towards heights rising in Alaska and NW Canada in the 7-10 day if not longer so indeed a very cold period could be in place for the central and eastern US. What I find interesting is that we starting to see moisture from tropical eastern Pacific come into play across the south, in another words a weak El Niño pattern looks to come in play for that period as well.

[asd123]

Wow, I think FL had the the hottest thread last night, lol.
Sorry I couldn't join it, went to bed early. Great discussion.
Models are already hinting towards heights rising in Alaska and NW Canada in the 7-10 day if not longer so indeed a very cold period could be in place for the central and eastern US. What I find interesting is that we starting to see moisture from tropical eastern Pacific come into play across the south, in another words a weak El Niño pattern looks to come in play for that period as well.

With this cold weather forecasted in 10 days, looking at the models, it seems to bypass us to the north according to ECMWF and its ensembles. GFS has lower 40s lows, GEM upper 30s, Ensembles of GEM and GFS have upper 40s.

What the models can't see yet is for Thanksgiving. It could be With that historic monster in the Bering Sea and current SSW, and moisture from the Pacific from warmer than normal waters (developing el Nino), it should be downright brutal for Thanksgiving for the Southeast and Florida.

[northjaxpro]

asd123, I enjoyed the chat with you last night. A very interesting discussion on this page. Again, we will see how it plays out. Still a bit early to call what will happen around Thanksgiving. But, I definitely think that the AO will really dip negative and with extratropical Nuri forecast to bomb in the Bering Sea in the coming days, look for strong ridging to take shape across Alaska and NW Canada next week. We could be looking at a situation where cold, arctic air could be locked in place for an extended period across North America.

Plus, the developing weak to potentially moderate El Nino is the other potential fly on the ointment. Moisture riding in on the subtropical jet from the Pacific, moving over potentially cold, arctic air could pose the potential across the Deep South to some more wintry fun later as time progresses.

[asd123]

:uarrow:
asd123, I enjoyed the chat with you last night. A very interesting discussion on this page. Again, we will see how it plays out. Still a bit early to call what will happen around Thanksgiving. But, I definitely think that the AO will really dip negative and with extratropical Nuri forecast to bomb in the Bering Sea in the coming days, look for strong ridging to take shape across Alaska and NW Canada next week. We could be looking at a situation where cold, arctic air could be locked in place for an extended period across North America.

Plus, the developing weak to potentially moderate El Nino is the other potential fly on the ointment. Moisture riding in on the subtropical jet from the Pacific, moving over potentially cold, arctic air could pose the potential across the Deep South to some more wintry fun later as time progresses.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/i ... anim.shtml
The link I provided shows the SSW that should only contribute to the potentially brutal weather around Thanksgiving. Perfectly timed with the Bering Sea storm.

[gatorcane]

What does SSW stand for?

[northjaxpro]

Sudden Stratospheric Warming.

[asd123]

What does SSW stand for?

(S) Sudden (S) Stratospheric (W) Warming

I know what it is but I am not good at explaining complex phenomenon. So let me provide you with some info:

http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/facts/warming_NH.html Article isn't that long. Effects of stratospheric warming are felt 2-4 weeks later.