Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I saw that, but I expect the EURO to flip back toward the GFS solution of colder trend as time progresses.

[gatorcane]

18Z Parallel GFS has indeed trended colder with cold anomalies into Northern Florida and sinking down into Central Florida.

[NDG]

Two runs in a row now that the Euro does not show freezing temps for most of central FL with the upper level trough keeping a somewhat positive tilt and lifting up after deepening over the MS River valley.
But it keeps temps in the 50s to near 60 on Tuesday for highs across most central FL, brrr!!!!

[gatorcane]

Parallel GFS continues to come in cold for Florida and the entire Eastern half of the United States next week:

[northjaxpro]

Quite a huge temperature gradient with the modified arctic front this afternoon across the peninsula with a huge temperature gradient with the modified arctic front. Currently, it is 40 degrees at the Pensacola Regional Airport and light rain, while South Florida is enjoying low 80s, with 82 degrees currently reported at WFO down in Miami. The wind has shifted to the north across my locale, signaling the intial frontal boundary has moved through the Jax area, but the colder, air is still lagging back farther west and northwest. Also, weak shortwave upperimpulses riding along the front wil spread clouds and even some light rain or sprinkles tonight before the Modified Polar High Pressure over the mid- Missisippi Valley region builds into the Deep South on Friday. Clouds should begin the clear out by tomoorow morning across the northern peninsula.

The colder air will spread over the rest of the northern peninsula during the overnight and upper 30s are forecast for the interior, colder areas by tomorrow morning. Expecting max temps tomorrow to only reach the mid 50s across the Jax area as cold advection continues across the area. Temps look to be in the mid-upper 30s for Saturday morning interior areas of North Florida. The Polar High will slide east off the mid-Atlantic coast on Saturday morning and that will bring back a return flow back to the peninsula with modifying temps this weekend. A storm system will develop over the Lower MS Valley area beginning Sunday and move northeast to move off the Mid-Atlantic /DELMARVA area by late Monday. This system will pave the way to give a chance of rain and possible thunderstorms to the peninsula, especially across North Florida during late Sunday afternoon into Monday, and ending from the west and northwest with the passage of a strong cold front. The front should clear NE Floriday during Monday evening.

Then, get ready for Old Man Winter Tuesday -Thursday as an extremely impressive upper level trough will be firmly established across the entire Eastern CONUS. If the GFS is correct, we may be seeing a potential hard freeze for much of North Florida, and temps approaching freezing down to near the I-4 corridor by Wednesday morning. Stay tuned!

[asd123]

Quite a huge temperature gradient with the modified arctic front this afternoon across the peninsula with a huge temperature gradient with the modified arctic front. Currently, it is 40 degrees at the Pensacola Regional Airport and light rain, while South Florida is enjoying low 80s, with 82 degrees currently reported at WFO down in Miami. The wind has shifted to the north across my locale, signaling the intial frontal boundary has moved through the Jax area, but the colder, air is still lagging back farther west and northwest. Also, weak shortwave upperimpulses riding along the front wil spread clouds and even some light rain or sprinkles tonight before the Modified Polar High Pressure over the mid- Missisippi Valley region builds into the Deep South on Friday. Clouds should begin the clear out by tomoorow morning across the northern peninsula.

The colder air will spread over the rest of the northern peninsula during the overnight and upper 30s are forecast for the interior, colder areas by tomorrow morning. Expecting max temps tomorrow to only reach the mid 50s across the Jax area as cold advection continues across the area. Temps look to be in the mid-upper 30s for Saturday morning interior areas of North Florida. The Polar High will slide east off the mid-Atlantic coast on Saturday morning and that will bring back a return flow back to the peninsula with modifying temps this weekend. A storm system will develop over the Lower MS Valley area beginning Sunday and move northeast to move off the Mid-Atlantic /DELMARVA area by late Monday. This system will pave the way to give a chance of rain and possible thunderstorms to the peninsula, especially across North Florida during late Sunday afternoon into Monday, and ending from the west and northwest with the passage of a strong cold front. The front should clear NE Floriday during Monday evening.

Then, get ready for Old Man Winter Tuesday -Thursday as an extremely impressive upper level trough will be firmly established across the entire Eastern CONUS. If the GFS is correct, we may be seeing a potential hard freeze for much of North Florida, and temps approaching freezing down to near the I-4 corridor by Wednesday morning. Stay tuned!

Yeah, GEM upper 20s for cfla next week, GFS lower 30s, parallel GFS upper 20s, ECMWF mid to upper 30s. Yet local news agencies have still been forecasting only mid to upper 40s for lows for Orlando. What do you think?

[northjaxpro]

Well, my gut instincts tell me that the GFS will come closer to verifying asd123 for this upcoming event. The GFS in my opinion has been better in analyzing this next arctic surge and has been more consistent in showing the strength and extreme anomoulous 500 mb pattern for the Eastern CONUS. EURO has been too inconsistent imo with its runs in flip-flopping to a colder / warmer trend across Florida in particular. EURO wants to not show very deep amplification of the upper trough, but the GFS has not wavered at all about this. I think EURO will eventually get back to the colder solution as time progresses.

[asd123]

:uarrow: Well, my gut instincts tell me that the GFS will come closer to verifying asd123 for this upcoming event. The GFS in my opinion has been better in analyzing this next arctic surge and has been more consistent in showing the strength and extreme anomoulous 500 mb pattern for the Eastern CONUS. EURO has been too inconsistent imo with its runs in flip-flopping to a colder / warmer trend across Florida in particular. EURO wants to not show very deep amplification of the upper trough, but the GFS has not wavered at all about this. I think EURO will eventually get back to the colder solution as time progresses.

Despite GFS GEM consensus on lower 30's upper 20s for cfla next week and ECMWF consensus for mid to upper 30's for next week, local news stations and weather.com and NOAA forecast no cooler than mid to upper 40s. Why are they so so warm compared to model consensus?

[gatorcane]

:uarrow: Well, my gut instincts tell me that the GFS will come closer to verifying asd123 for this upcoming event. The GFS in my opinion has been better in analyzing this next arctic surge and has been more consistent in showing the strength and extreme anomoulous 500 mb pattern for the Eastern CONUS. EURO has been too inconsistent imo with its runs in flip-flopping to a colder / warmer trend across Florida in particular. EURO wants to not show very deep amplification of the upper trough, but the GFS has not wavered at all about this. I think EURO will eventually get back to the colder solution as time progresses.

Despite GFS GEM consensus on lower 30's upper 20s for cfla next week and ECMWF consensus for mid to upper 30's for next week, local news stations and weather.com forecast no cooler than mid to upper 40s. Why are they so so warm compared to model consensus?

Tampa NWS is also not going as low as the 30s. I think it is too far out still and respect is being given to the ECMWF. Here is a snippet from the NWS Tampa disco:

Long-term snippet:

BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
POLAR AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BEGIN TO SHOW LATE IN THE EXTENDED
BEHIND THE LAST FRONT. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE
ADVERTISING DEWPOINTS BELOW 15 DEGREES SNEAKING DOWN THE SPINE OF
THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE 00Z GFS ALSO DOES SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE 00Z GFS MEX AND 00Z ECMWF EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE TEMPER
THIS SLIGHTLY...THOUGH THEY OFFER PLENTY OF NORTHERLY WIND TO HELP
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TRAVEL DOWN THE PENINSULA. WHILE CONFIDENCE
IS NOT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PREDICT A FROST OR FREEZE...ESPECIALLY
SO FAR OUT IN TIME...THIS SITUATION BEARS WATCHING AS IT COULD BE
OUR FIRST TASTE OF WINTER FOR THE SEASON. WENT WITH A BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL BE TRENDING COLDER AS THE FORECAST PERIOD
PROGRESSES.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[northjaxpro]

Well, apparently whatever TV stations you are referring to down there their own mets are apparently buying into the EURO and its warmer solutions down in your area. We will see how it all fares as the event approaches asd123.

[northjaxpro]

Gatorcane, yeah the NWS mets are just sticking with a cautious approach down there as they generally do with a cold event like this looming.

I am just being a bit more assertive than they are in siding with the GFS as the event draws closer within the next week. If the GFS ends up being wrong with the severity of the cold next week, I will eat humble pie and bow to King EURO.

[NDG]

:uarrow: Well, my gut instincts tell me that the GFS will come closer to verifying asd123 for this upcoming event. The GFS in my opinion has been better in analyzing this next arctic surge and has been more consistent in showing the strength and extreme anomoulous 500 mb pattern for the Eastern CONUS. EURO has been too inconsistent imo with its runs in flip-flopping to a colder / warmer trend across Florida in particular. EURO wants to not show very deep amplification of the upper trough, but the GFS has not wavered at all about this. I think EURO will eventually get back to the colder solution as time progresses.

Despite GFS GEM consensus on lower 30's upper 20s for cfla next week and ECMWF consensus for mid to upper 30's for next week, local news stations and weather.com and NOAA forecast no cooler than mid to upper 40s. Why are they so so warm compared to model consensus?

Very rarely do they go by the models' raw output in the medium range forecast, they hug the MOS guidance which in that time frame is usually very conservative.
IMO.

[asd123]

Yikes, GFS keeps on persistently maintaining a freeze for much of cfla., with Orlando possibly seeing 20s!

Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits:



Is MOS guidance really that warm? I mean ECMWF, the warmest, still has mid to upper 30s forecasted.
No weight for the GEM and GFS which are significantly colder? I couldn't believe the news stations' forecasts for no colder than mid 40s (about 10-15 degrees above GFS and GEM), (about 5 degrees above ECMWF).

On another note, Thursday morning temperature outlooks have warmed by the GFS.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I posted this on the Deep South Winter thread as well. Yeah, GFS keeps trending colder for sure. I think it is safe now to say that I am 100% confident that a significant freeze, possibly a hard freeze in some of the normally colder areas, is going to happen across all of North Florida. GFS is projecting 25 degrees for Jax on this 18Z GFS run for this upcoming Wednesday morning.

The question is will the I-4 corridor get to see a freeze as well? I checked the NWS Melbourne WFO site and I found that the record low for Orlando for Nov 19 is 36 degrees. If the GFS comes anywhere close to verifying with its solution, I think there would be a very good chance that record will be broken, most certainly tied at least.

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: Yeah, I posted this on the Deep South Winter thread as well. Yeah, GFS keeps trending colder for sure. I think it is safe now to say that I am 100% confident that a significant freeze, possibly a hard freeze in some of the normally colder areas, is going to happen across all of North Florida. GFS is projecting 25 degrees for Jax on this 18Z GFS run for this upcoming Wednesday morning.

The question is will the I-4 corridor get to see a freeze as well? I checked the NWS Melbourne WFO site and I found that the record low for Orlando for Nov 19 is 36 degrees. If the GFS comes anywhere close to verifying with its solution, I think there would be a very good chance that record will be broken, most certainly tied at least.

I noticed that all the talk has been about how cold North/Central Florida might get next Wed. morning. But do you have any clue on how far down the peninsula that cold air might get. Noticed forecast such as NWS, The Weather Channel, and Local Mets. are only forecasting lows Wed. morning in the upper 50's along coastal/metro portions of Palm Beach County and even SE Florida.

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: Yeah, I posted this on the Deep South Winter thread as well. Yeah, GFS keeps trending colder for sure. I think it is safe now to say that I am 100% confident that a significant freeze, possibly a hard freeze in some of the normally colder areas, is going to happen across all of North Florida. GFS is projecting 25 degrees for Jax on this 18Z GFS run for this upcoming Wednesday morning.

The question is will the I-4 corridor get to see a freeze as well? I checked the NWS Melbourne WFO site and I found that the record low for Orlando for Nov 19 is 36 degrees. If the GFS comes anywhere close to verifying with its solution, I think there would be a very good chance that record will be broken, most certainly tied at least.

I noticed that all the talk has been about how cold North/Central Florida might get next Wed. morning. But do you have any clue on how far down the peninsula that cold air might get. Noticed forecast such as NWS, The Weather Channel, and Local Mets. are only forecasting lows Wed. morning in the upper 50's along coastal/metro portions of Palm Beach County and even SE Florida.

If the GFS verifies, it is possible interior areas of South Central peninsula down to near Lake Obeechobee could see temps near 40 degrees, give a degree or two either side of the 40 mark. The latest 18Z run of GFS is showing 44 degrees for Miami on Wednesday morning, so mid 40-upper 40s is what Palm Beach, Broward and Dade would be at based on the GFS. If the cold penetrates down the spine of the peninsula, I think you could see these numbers close to verifying down in that part of the state.

[NDG]

Yikes, GFS keeps on persistently maintaining a freeze for much of cfla., with Orlando possibly seeing 20s!

Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits:

http://i61.tinypic.com/15psqpz.png

Is MOS guidance really that warm? I mean ECMWF, the warmest, still has mid to upper 30s forecasted.
No weight for the GEM and GFS which are significantly colder? I couldn't believe the news stations' forecasts for no colder than mid 40s (about 10-15 degrees above GFS and GEM), (about 5 degrees above ECMWF).

On another note, Thursday morning temperature outlooks have warmed by the GFS.

Yes, MOS is right now way warmer than raw numbers, as time gets closer so will the MOS guidance if the GFS persists with its current solution.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KMCO

[asd123]

Yikes, GFS keeps on persistently maintaining a freeze for much of cfla., with Orlando possibly seeing 20s!

Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits:

http://i61.tinypic.com/15psqpz.png

Is MOS guidance really that warm? I mean ECMWF, the warmest, still has mid to upper 30s forecasted.
No weight for the GEM and GFS which are significantly colder? I couldn't believe the news stations' forecasts for no colder than mid 40s (about 10-15 degrees above GFS and GEM), (about 5 degrees above ECMWF).

On another note, Thursday morning temperature outlooks have warmed by the GFS.

Yes, MOS is right now way warmer than raw numbers, as time gets closer so will the MOS guidance if the GFS persists with its current solution.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KMCO

What exactly is the MOS (Model Output Statistics)? I know the GFS has a control run, a regular operational run, and an ensemble run (control + operational+ ens members). Where does MOS guidance come in here?

[NDG]

Yikes, GFS keeps on persistently maintaining a freeze for much of cfla., with Orlando possibly seeing 20s!

Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits:

http://i61.tinypic.com/15psqpz.png

Is MOS guidance really that warm? I mean ECMWF, the warmest, still has mid to upper 30s forecasted.
No weight for the GEM and GFS which are significantly colder? I couldn't believe the news stations' forecasts for no colder than mid 40s (about 10-15 degrees above GFS and GEM), (about 5 degrees above ECMWF).

On another note, Thursday morning temperature outlooks have warmed by the GFS.

Yes, MOS is right now way warmer than raw numbers, as time gets closer so will the MOS guidance if the GFS persists with its current solution.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KMCO

What exactly is the MOS (Model Output Statistics)? I know the GFS has a control run, a regular operational run, and an ensemble run (control + operational+ ens members). Where does MOS guidance come in here?

Here is good link to read about MOS.

In fact, just about every forecaster will use MOS to help with their forecast. Forecasters that do not use MOS are at a huge disadvantage to those that do.

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints2/431/

From my experience of looking at the MOS guidance for the Orlando area, I have seen it be fairly conservative 4-5 days before the arctic air mass is forecasted by the global models then go very aggressive with forecast lows for this area 2-3 days prior to the event. In fact most times the MOS guidance is then too cold bias in the very short range most times, at least for this area.

[NDG]

Still some big discrepancy between the GFS and Euro this morning, with the GFS showing upper 20s reaching the I-4 corridor for Wednesday morning while the ECMWF only shows upper 30s at the most reaching this area.
The GFS is also more progressive with the cold front showing it to come through the area Monday night while the Euro has it moving through 12 hrs later Tuesday morning, might be the reason why such a difference in the forecast lows for Wednesday morning between the two.