Florida Weather

[gatorcane]

Either way that is way below normal for Florida. Parallel GFS continues to show a very cold solution for much of Florida next week. Euro seems to be gradually moving towards the GFS though still warmer. Best bet is to go somewhere inbetween

[gatorcane]

Peninsula Florida still hanging on to the warmth. Glad to be here and not up north!

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like déjà vu all over again from last year.

[northjaxpro]

Well it is 47 degrees and the clouds have finally cleared out. Max temps today only in the mid 50s as cold advection on 15-20 mph northwest winds will continue up into tonight. This cold spell will be very brief as the modified Polar High over the mid-Mississippi Valley currently will moves due east. It will be postioned to be off the Mid-Atlantic coast by tomorrow afternoon.

Min temps tonight should stay above freezing across most areas of the northern peninsula. Since the High will stay well north of Florida during this event, the winds should stay up just enough to mix the air at the surface to not allow radiational cooling to be maximized. Lows will be primarily from 35-40 across the interior locations.

For everyone down the peninsula, lows will be generally in the 45-50 range down into the I-4 corridor region, and 50-55 across South Central peninsula region, and near 60 across SE FL coast region. So, most of the peninsula will escape the true cold blast this go round.

Enjoy the moderation trend this weekend as the peninsula most likely won't be so fortunate beginning Tueday. I still am really favoring the GFS solution for the arctic blast coming to invade the peninsula.

I'll check back later, but expect EURO to come back to GFS solution in future runs folks.

[TheStormExpert]

I have to ask is it normal to see all these cold fronts come through Florida this time of year in November and bring cool/cold air all the way down the peninsula?

I know last year we had a nice refreshing brief cool down on Thanksgiving Day.

[Bocadude85]

Well it is 47 degrees and the clouds have finally cleared out. Max temps today only in the mid 50s as cold advection on 15-20 mph northwest winds will continue up into tonight. This cold spell will be very brief as the modified Polar High over the mid-Mississippi Valley currently will moves due east. It will be postioned to be off the Mid-Atlantic coast by tomorrow afternoon.

Min temps tonight should stay above freezing across most areas of the northern peninsula. Since the High will stay well north of Florida during this event, the winds should stay up just enough to mix the air at the surface to not allow radiational cooling to be maximized. Lows will be primarily from 35-40 across the interior locations.

For everyone down the peninsula, lows will be generally in the 45-50 range down into the I-4 corridor region, and 50-55 across South Central peninsula region, and near 60 across SE FL coast region. So, most of the peninsula will escape the true cold blast this go round.

Enjoy the moderation trend this weekend as the peninsula most likely won't be so fortunate beginning Tueday. I still am really favoring the GFS solution for the arctic blast coming to invade the peninsula.

I'll check back later, but expect EURO to come back to GFS solution in future runs folks.

Forecast low tonight here in South Palm Beach County is 65. The coldest forecast low for us next week is 57 Wednesday morning.

[northjaxpro]

Well, the MIami NWS mets are doing the same as the other NWS WFOs are doing across the state, which is to use the MOS Guidance and side with the EURO for now. As I have explained in previous posts, I am being very assertive in siding the GFS solution. I am using the temp values based from GFS on my earlier post assessing Wednesday morning minimums. We will see if the GFS will be closer to verify on Wednesday morning.

[psyclone]

this does look like an impressive, albeit brief cold shot for mid November. I don't believe that we'll see a freeze in central florida with the possible exception of the normally frigid nature coast counties north of Tampa (interior Levy, Citrus, Hernando, Sumter). IIRC the earliest freeze on record at Tampa was November 16. In my neck of the woods (Pinellas county) I'd be surprised if we get mins under 45. For those who are not fans of the chilly weather the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks from the CPC show temps moderating back to normal by the latter period and just on the cool side of normal for the beginning period.

[TheStormExpert]

Well the 12z GFS, and Parallel GFS have backed off some on how cold it gets down here in S. FL Wednesday morning. This must just be the models flipping around though as usual.

[psyclone]

It's a tall order to get significant cold down into peninsular Florida this early. A month from now would be a different story.

[NDG]

12z euro is sticking to his guns, 12z GFS now only show low to mid 30s for lows around the I-4 corridor instead of upper 20s for Wednesday morning.

[gatorcane]

when in doubt go with the ECMWF. Been burned too many times going against it. 12Z ECMWF showing only cool anomalies for peninsula FL:

[psyclone]

when in doubt go with the ECMWF. Been burned too many times going against it.

especially when it makes more climo sense.

[northjaxpro]

Excellent AFD by the mets here at the NWS Jax office late this afternoon. It was a very comprehensive discussion, but for the sake of brevity, I provided the key excerpts below regarding the big chill next week. Compared to this time yesterday when the Jax mets were much more conservative with the arctic blast for the Tuesday-Thursday period, it definitely seems now they are agreeing much more with the GFS solution. NWS Jax is now jumping on board with the potential for hard freeze across the interior areas of North and Northeast Florida. They also are finally in line with the Arctic High axis diving down this time right into the Deep South region. The axis will get much closer to the peninsula with this next arctic surge.

excerpt for AFD late today:

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY

...COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE REGION
AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND A
COLD SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. HIGH TEMPS STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 50S MOST AREAS. A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF JACKSONVILLE AND
GAINESVILLE WHERE MIN TEMPS MAY FALL INTO THE MID 20S. WIND CHILLS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 20 DEGREES ACROSS INLAND SE GA.

THURSDAY...THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODIFY SOMEWHAT AS THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE REGION EXPECTING A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND COLD MORNINGS. ANOTHER HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF JACKSONVILLE AND
GAINESVILLE.

FRIDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH LIFTS TO THE NE OF THE AREA PROVIDING
AN ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE. A FEW AFTERNOON COASTAL
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER NE FL COAST. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
MODERATE BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

[gatorcane]

80s for South Florida with the rest of the Central and Eastern US very cold for this time of year. There is even a 14 degree difference between Melbourne and Miami with cooler air moving into Central FL but looks like South Florida escapes as the front washes out. Was outside today and it is a "Chamber of Commerce" day here across South Florida - just picture-perfect day. Weekend looking great with temps in the upper 70s to around 80 and lows in the upper 60s to around 70 with a wind off the warm Gulf stream current.



Mesoscale analysis of temps across the peninsula shows the temperature differences with that pocket of 80s across South Florida with cooler 60s north into Central Florida:

[northjaxpro]

12z euro is sticking to his guns, 12z GFS now only show low to mid 30s for lows around the I-4 corridor instead of upper 20s for Wednesday morning.

NDG, even if the temps reach the low-mid 30s in Orlando for Wednesday morning, it would still break or at least tie the record low there for Nov 19, which is 36 degrees.

[psyclone]

12z euro is sticking to his guns, 12z GFS now only show low to mid 30s for lows around the I-4 corridor instead of upper 20s for Wednesday morning.

NDG, even if the temps reach the low-mid 30s in Orlando for Wednesday morning, it would still break or at least tie the record low there for Nov 19, which is 36 degrees.

All the more reason to discount the more extreme solutions. The NWS has a current forecast low for Brooksville of 34 and around 40 to the low 40's for Orlando...both of which seem reasonable. For the GFS to suggest upper 20's were going to visit the I-4 corridor in mid November is an indication that its comedy is not confined to hurricane season.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS and Parallel GFS not backing down on some cold anomalies for peninsula Florida:





GFS shows mid 30s into Central Florida:

[northjaxpro]

Psyclone, let's wait and see. I respect your thoughts and definitely understand your skepticism with the GFS. But, I have seen the GFS at times in the past perform quite well with these arctic airmasses. The GFS may not be as consistent as EURO, but imo GFS is still very respectable with very large scale winter patterns or extreme anomulous patterns like this current situation evolving.

As for this being mid-November, it would be very unusual indeed to get a solid cold outbreak this time of year across the state. However, we have had November cold spells in the past. The extreme anomalies with the deep layered upper trough for next week will be in place and giving the trends, all I am stating here is that the GFS this particular time may have it right and could come close to verifying. We shall see.

[psyclone]

Psyclone, let's wait and see. I respect your thoughts and definitely understand your skepticism with the GFS. But, I have seen the GFS at times in the past perform quite well with these arctic airmasses. The GFS may not be as consistent as EURO, but imo GFS is still very respectable with very large scale winter patterns or extreme anomulous patterns like this current situation evolving.

As for this being mid-November, it would be very unusual indeed to get a solid cold outbreak this time of year across the state. However, we have had November cold spells in the past. The extreme anomalies with the deep layered upper trough for next week will be in place and giving the trends, all I am stating here is that the GFS this particular time may have it right and could come close to verifying. We shall see.

Well I'd be lying were I to state I'm a fan of cold weather so my commentary may be tinged with warm weather -removed- glasses. Having said that, in all weather my inclination is to bet against record breaking extremes until said event is imminent. I'm sure that's why the forecast lows aren't nearly as cold as some of the model runs...they have time to adjust as the event draws nearer should the need arise.