2011 SE TX/SW LA Weather: Nice weather next several days

[vbhoutex]

This mornings email from Jeff. Is there real COLD on the horizon?

Warming Trend‏

After a cold morning across the area, much warmer conditions will be place this weekend into the middle of next week along with additional chances for rainfall.

Cold surface high NE of the region this morning did not produce calm winds overnight as winds have already swung around to the E/SE at 5-10mph and so temperatures have only fallen into the upper 30’s and low 40’s. As this high moves east today, winds will turn to the SE and the return of moisture will be underway. Expect a deck of clouds to develop and begin to push inland later today with skies going mostly cloudy this evening. Humidity will increase overnight along with lower level clouds and by late Saturday a few showers may even develop especially west of I-45. Slightly better chances of rainfall look possible on Sunday as a weak short wave crosses the area along with warm air advection and increasing Gulf moisture. Air mass actually starts to become unstable Sunday afternoon with LI’s of -2 to -4 and trigger temperatures in the low 80’s so incoming streamer showers off the Gulf Saturday night may be able to grow into heavier convective showers or even a thunderstorm or two on Sunday. For now will throw in 30% across the entire area for Sunday, but these chances may need to be raised on Saturday.

Long wave trough developing over the western US late this weekend will help expand the downstream sub-tropical ridge over the Gulf of Mexico into TX Monday (especially the coastal sections) helping to lower rains chances although warm and humid conditions will prevail. Trough and its associated cold front will move eastward into TX starting late Monday and slowly move across the state. Moisture values increase to very high levels (PWS 1.8-2.0 inches) next Tuesday pointing strongly toward an excessive rainfall potential over the upper TX coastal plain and parts of SE TX where a slow moving frontal boundary will be found. These moisture values are nearly 200% of mid-late November standards and with a slow moving boundary in place training excessive rainfall will be possible. Severe threat looks more marginal with this system than the last system, so only a few isolated severe reports are expected.

Storm system should clear SE TX by Wednesday with improving conditions for the holiday part of next week into next weekend. Temperatures should be seasonal (40’s to 70’s) under mostly clear skies.

Note: Record breaking cold air has built into Alaska this week with lows of -40 to -50 below zero in much of the interior part of the state. To this point there has been no favorable upper air delivery pattern of this air southward into the US, but long range models have been and continue to hint at the potential for a significant cold air intrusion into the US just beyond the Thanksgiving time period. When that time arrives, will have to see if this bitter cold air mass is still lurking over Alaska.

[vbhoutex]

We are going the wrong way temp wise here in Houston, at least for this time of year. Looks like we are hitting record highs today with 84f so far today. AC is on and blowing. By Thursday we should be back to "normal" temps, whatever that is anymore. Tuesday looks to be rainy and that is a good thing just about any way you paint it.

[vbhoutex]

Awakened by thunder and torrential rain this am. End result of that storm was 0.77" of rain. There is some more coming down now, but it is not anything to talk about, just some "normal" rain and then it looks like we will be done with it for the day. Looks like the pattern change will be coming over the weekend after a very nice Thanksgiving with temps running from the 40's to the 70's. By early next week we will probably be close to or at freezing for lows. Could be time to move over to the winter thread if the "winter weather" persists.

[vbhoutex]

Jeff Lindner's morning email tells it.

Cold front crossing SE TX this morning with ongoing showers and thunderstorms across the region.

At 600am a cold front extended from near Tyler to College Station to San Antonio moving ESE at 15-20mph. Numerous thunderstorms have developed along the boundary from Lufkin to Brenham. A secondary band of thunderstorms is rapidly developing over Wharton and Matagorda Counties and this band will be moving toward Fort Bend and Harris Counties shortly. While the air mass is unstable, frontal timing (early morning) and weak shear will support on a very marginal severe weather threat for the morning hours as the front crosses the area. Most severe modes will be isolated wind damage and this threat will be mainly north of I-10.

Faster frontal movement and rapid forward cell motion is helping to mitigate the heavy rainfall in this highly tropical air mass over the region. Could see a period of cell training along and just N of the US 59 corridor this morning for a few hours as radar shows this is where cells are developing ahead of the main line, but incoming front will shift this activity E/S in a few hours. Rainfall amounts will average .5-1.0 inch with a few isolated totals up to 1.5 inches especially north of I-10 and east of I-45. Front should be reaching the coast early this afternoon or several hours faster than what models were showing yesterday. Rain will end quickly from NW to SE post front with clearing skies by late afternoon.

Dry weather on tap for Wednesday and Thursday with weak high pressure in control before rapid changes Friday-Sunday. Lows in the 40’s and 50’s and highs in the 70’s both days under mostly sunny skies.

Next very strong storm system will begin to approach the area Friday with a rapid influx of moisture starting very late Thursday night. Deep moisture with PWS progged to rise again toward 1.8 inches by Friday afternoon will support the formation of showers and thunderstorms. Strong deep layer lift from the trough moves into the area late Friday night into Saturday with widespread thunderstorms expected. System does support some severe potential along with heavy rainfall, but as with the last several looks fast moving.

Strong high pressure will build southward behind this system with low pressure deepening over the lower MS valley Saturday and Sunday. Impressive pressure rising over TX will support very strong post frontal winds Saturday into Sunday with sustained speeds of 20-30mph and gust over 35-40mph. This system will also tap some cold air over the northern US and expect falling temperatures on Saturday under strong cold air advection regime (highs in the 70’s early falling into the 50’s during the afternoon). Cold high pressure will settle over the region Sunday evening with freezing temperatures possible in some areas Monday morning. Another strong front with modified arctic air appears possible just beyond this weekend (early next week) with even colder conditions and the threat of a more widespread freeze.

[vbhoutex]

Awakened by thunder and torrential rain this am. End result of that storm was 0.77" of rain. There is some more coming down now, but it is not anything to talk about, just some "normal" rain and then it looks like we will be done with it for the day. Looks like the pattern change will be coming over the weekend after a very nice Thanksgiving with temps running from the 40's to the 70's. By early next week we will probably be close to or at freezing for lows. Could be time to move over to the winter thread if the "winter weather" persists.

Just an update to yesterday's rain event. Final total for the event was 1". A nice cool seasonal 52F this am. AH!!!

[jasons2k]

I just had .41" from the rain a few days ago, but today I'm already up to 1/2" with more to come

[vbhoutex]

We're approaching 1" for today so far. Currently have very heavy rains with some almost torrential. Radar is saying there isn't a whole lot more to our West, but we may be in a training situation here in W Houston. Even the rate it is coming down right now I could take for several hours as it would do wonders for our drought situation even though it would not come close to relieving it. A little side note. Our yard is greener now than it has been all year due to the recent showers we've had. Too bad we are in the dormant season now. Current temp is 59F down from 69F earlier today.

[Flyinman]

Ended up with just over 2.5". This is in addition to the .5" Earlier in the week. I will take 3" in one week!

[Tireman4]

Still raining here, but clearing is coming. Woo Hoo.

[vbhoutex]

Haven't made my final measurement yet as I don't report to CoCoRahs till the morning, but experience tells me I have at least 1.5" in my gauge. Winds are now gusting in the 30 mph range so it is now raw outside with the current 56F outside.

[southerngale]

It rained much of the day and now there's puddles and water in the ditches. It's a beautiful thing!

Looks to be quite chilly for the foreseeable future.

[vbhoutex]

Haven't made my final measurement yet as I don't report to CoCoRahs till the morning, but experience tells me I have at least 1.5" in my gauge. Winds are now gusting in the 30 mph range so it is now raw outside with the current 56F outside.

Woke up to 45F with winds still gusting 25-30mph so it is raw outside. Final rain total was 1.35" so I guess I have to hone my observation skills a little more. Looking at this weeks forecast, it may be time to move to the Winter thread.

[jasons2k]

I got 1.17" which is pretty decent. Things are starting to look a little more normal again around here

[JenBayles]

Bear Creek saw over an inch last weekend. Wondering if miracles can happen and we'll actually see more wet stuff this weekend? Got my food shopping done so I'll be happily cooking away while the weather turns nasty. What a change - bring on the holiday weather!

[southerngale]

Wow... I can't remember the last time I saw a forecast like this. Bring on the rain!!

[jasons2k]

I have exactly 1.00" in the bucket - this is starting from Fri Night. I only had .32" up to last night, so I had almost 7/10" overnight.

[jasons2k]

.69" from yesterday/overnight. Hoping for more later this week

[jasons2k]

I had 1.68" here - best rain in a long time

[PTrackerLA]

With just hours to go in 2011 and .02" needed to not have the driest year ever what do you know there's a mass of unexpected rain heading this way.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... H&loop=yes

May not set the record after all! Happy New Year everyone.

[vbhoutex]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
758 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WESTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 900 AM CST

* AT 754 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BROOKSHIRE TO WALLIS TO 11
MILES SOUTHWEST OF EAST BERNARD...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
BROOKSHIRE TO 13 MILES SOUTH OF BROOKSHIRE TO 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF
WHARTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO TOWN WEST...SIMONTON...ROSENBERG...RICHMOND...PLEAK...
PECAN GROVE...NEEDVILLE...MISSION BEND AND KATY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
811 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 900 AM CST

* AT 806 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR ORCHARD... MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TOWN WEST...RICHMOND...PECAN GROVE AND FULSHEAR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN THE INTERIOR HALLWAY OR
A ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A STURDY BUILDING. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF YOU ARE INSIDE A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...EVACUATE THEM
IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST
RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR
HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.