Florida Weather

[Sanibel]

I believe it. And now this one has settled in with that sickly cold.

[gatorcane]

How often do you see a headline like this (taken from weather.com homepage)?



link to article:
http://www.weather.com/forecast/nationa ... ming-trend

[TheStormExpert]

How often do you see a headline like this (taken from weather.com homepage)?



link to article:
http://www.weather.com/forecast/nationa ... ming-trend

Complete opposite from last December. Where it would have said "Cold Everywhere... Except Florida".

[NDG]

39 degrees at my neighborhood this morning with light frost on rooftops. The Euro was once again correct about well below average morning low temps staying through the weekend.
Finally a pattern change for next week as heights begin to rise across the SE US and we go into a more progressive pattern across the southern US with this persistent NW flow coming to an end. Little by little average temps will be back into the picture but it will take a while for chilly morning lows to end as a pocket of surface dry air stays in place over the interior of the Peninsula making temps fall below average in the mornings through at least early next week.

[northjaxpro]

Good morning! Measured 31.3 degrees at 7:12 a.m., so after several mornings this week in the 30s, finally reached the freezing mark at my locale this morning. This is the fourth freeze of the Fall/Winter season here at my locale and the first for this month. Upper level cirrus clouds the past couple of days kept temps up just enough to prevent freezes.

This morning had perfect radiational cooling conditions with clear skies and calm winds. Heavy frost widespread here as well.

It is like a broken record and more of the same weather will continue through this weekend. Long range models are hinting that a potential pattern change may arrive for the Eastern CONUS during Christmas into the start of 2015. It is far out right now, but something to monitor and discuss in the next 10-14 days.

Have a great weekend everyone and I'll check in later.

[Sanibel]

A second clear air wave has descended reinforcing the front. This one is long lasting and chilly down here. The clear air should allow the sun to warm things up to 71* today. Slow moderation over the next week to mid 70's. This one bellied down but wasn't the worst that winter can offer.

[asd123]

Good evening everyone, been enjoying a few good cool days and nights for cfla (highs mid to upper 60s, lows upper 30s to low 40s). Pattern looks to remain near to slightly below average beyond 5 days.

I have been looking at the longer range, models:

JMA: Nothing interesting, boring weather (near to slightly above average temps, no real big storms)

ECMWF: no major cold, maybe a storm next Saturday 12/20

ECMWF Ensemble: No major cold, maybe a weak storm next Saturday 12/20

GFS: No real cold air, except towards the end of the run of 12z 12/13, big storm around Christmas

GFS Parallel: Big storm forming in Gulf towards end of run but no real cold air forecasted at all.

GFS Ensemble: Colder pattern starting in about 2 weeks.

GEM: BOORING WEATHER

GEM Ensemble: Potentially colder weather pattern in about 12 days.

Bottom line, some models are hinting toward a much colder pattern in around 12 days and beyond. But strangely I'm afraid it won't happen as the teleconnections seem very hostile. Utterly disappointed.

[asd123]

18z GFS towards the end bitterly cold: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... F&hour=384 (This map is 204-306 total ) Single digits for north Fla and up to 6 in snow: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... I&hour=384 BRR.

Towards the end of the run, GFS bitterly cold temps, rain and snow for Florida, (http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... I&hour=384)
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... F&hour=384

1 inch of snow for Orlando too!!!: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

Sample: All images courtesy of Tropical Tidbits:

Deja Vu January 2010?


1pm temps same day



1pm temps next day



The teleconnections are forecasted to be very hostile, how can this come true?

[gatorcane]

Here is the map of the CONUS as the BIG arctic outbreak dives south out of Canada starting just after Christmas, -20s over Southern Canada with teens into Northern Florida The past several runs of the long-range GFS have shown this:

[TheStormExpert]

Even outside of Hurricane Season the GFS never fails to amuse and entertain. I'm at least 90% sure this will not happen on that date.

18z GFS Hr. 372.


18z GFS Hr. 384. (Entire U.S.)

[TheStormExpert]

Here is the map of the CONUS as the BIG arctic outbreak dives south out of Canada starting just after Christmas, -20s over Southern Canada with teens into Northern Florida The past several runs of the long-range GFS have shown this:

http://i58.tinypic.com/dh8ep5.png

Yeah but every run it keeps pushing it back, just like with the phantom storms during Hurricane Season. Once it gets up to 240hrs. or below and the Euro shows it then I will believe it.

[gatorcane]

No doubt we'll need the ECMWF to come on board and see if the GFS shows it within the 10 day timeframe. But notice the GFS shows the arctic air starting to build and dive out of Canada around Christmas or just a little after and is not pushing that back.

That seems consistent with some of the indicators including the long-range CFS of a pattern change starting around Christmas. Will it get as cold as the GFS is showing? Maybe not but this stretch of above normal temps across much of the CONUS looks like it could come to an abrupt end in a couple of weeks and winter could start with a big bang.

[Sanibel]

That clear air is a High that is channeling north winds for today and tomorrow keeping it cool.

[northjaxpro]

Good discussion gatorcane and StormExpert about the possible pattern change around the period of Christmas leading into New Year's Day. I have been checking the long range models as well and they have been showing a potential massive arctic airmass invading the CONUS.

As mentioned by both of you, I am waiting until we get inside of 10 days and for EURO to jump on board with similar solutions with what the GFS is showing. But, it is interesting nonetheless and we all will be monitoring the runs in the days to come.

Well, another frosty morning and currently 32.6 degrees here. It looks like the mercury will likely get to the freeze during this hour. Moderation is slowly taking shape and may see max temp of 70 degrees today for the first time in over a week here. Mornings will stay chilly, but after today, 500 mb heights rise enough where low temps early this week will be more from the upper 30s to the lower 40s.

Rain finally enters the picture late this week with the approach of a cold front, but at this time, precip does not look to be a widespread late this week. It is getting very dry and brush fires are occuring across areas of North Florida, so we really need some rain for sure.

EDIT: The temperature dropped to 31.8 degrees at 7:24 a.m., so managed to get another very brief freeze at my locale for the second straight morning, which makes it 5 total freezes observed for the season thus far.

[Sanibel]

Not looking forward to it.

[gigabite]

I'll get a swim in today, but it looks like bowling season is right around the corner.

[asd123]

According to the Weatherbell Team I am allowed to verbally describe all models but I know I can't post them, so here is what I saw: According to all the models, the teleconnections look very favorable for some Arctic air. All models show a negative NAO, AO, strongly negative EPO, and a negative PNA (warm). Hopefully we'll get some Arctic air!!!

[gatorcane]

ECMWF at 240 hours, the flood gates have opened!

Though the core of this arctic blast looks to stay north of Florida on this run.

[StormingB81]

I say we get that fantasy snow and make it a reality. However, if we get an inch in Orlando..This guy is staying home and not leaving the house. LOL BUT can we be cold on Christmas...just saying!

[asd123]

I say we get that fantasy snow and make it a reality. However, if we get an inch in Orlando..This guy is staying home and not leaving the house. LOL BUT can we be cold on Christmas...just saying!

Let's make it a reality yeah I'm all for it!!! Tell the stratosphere to make it roast to make the polar vortex break apart. Tell the teleconnections to bring the polar vortex far south. And finally tell the subtropical jet to juice up the atmosphere