Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

Also, I want to take this moment to express to my fellow Storm2K Floridians on this forum a very Merry Christmas to all of you and your loved ones! Please be safe and good tidings hopefully will be experienced by everyone this holiday season!

[NDG]

Merry Christmas Northjaxpro and to everyone else, stay cool

[northjaxpro]

Thanks NDG! Merry Christmas to you and your family!

BTW, the big winner of this current rain event was Tallahassee, where the NWS office there has received 8 inches over these past two days.

The total rainfall received here at my locale including this afternoon is approaching 2.5 inches.

[SeGaBob]

We received about 5 inches up here since it started on Saturday. (I think that's when it started anyway)

[gatorcane]

Latest 12Z model runs:

EC: no significant cold weather for Florida. Temps above normal through the next 10 days.
GFS: some cooler than normal weather for Florida between hours 168 and 192 but mainly for northern Florida.

Seems these models are converging on a solution where the arctic air dives south down the Rockies or a little east...but the very cold air does not advance east.

Merry Christmas everyone!

[northjaxpro]

Well gatorcane, the cold will not advance eastward because the latest long range models are now strongly hinting that the Southeast U.S. Ridge will establish itself to start 2015. The arctic air will essentially stay in place and be locked in across the Intermountain West and the Plains down into Texas as the ridge will deflect the arctic air from moving east and southward. The NAO for the time being will not dip negative for a prolonged time and above normal temps likely will occur over the Florida peninsula and the Southeast U.S., should this verify going into at least the first week of January. NOAA's very latest 8-14 day temp outlook also lends credence with the SE US ridge getting established showing above normal temps for our region.

So, it looks liike our tremendous luck of escaping Old Man Winter's cold will continue, which is reminiscent of the start of last year's winter, when we had the persistent SE ridge around. So, unless the models drastically change, those who love the warm weather will love this for awhile. We may go until mid January before we see cold weather head our way.

Hope everyone had a great Christmas yesterday with your families.

[NDG]

Yeap, the Caribbean ridge is not going anywhere, according to models, in fact the Euro shows the ridge strengthening up to 594+dm by next weekend, incredible!

[Sanibel]

Chilly last night but a quick warm up today. Overcast and humid.

[northjaxpro]

The SE US ridge indeed would be very potent if this verifies. This would keep not only Florida and the Southeast US well above normal but much of the U.S. Eastern seaboard as well in the 10 day long range.

[SouthFloridian92]

When is it going to get cold????????? I can't take this warm weather anymore. The ten day forecast shows high temps into the 80s everyday. It's sickening.

[FireRat]

DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT, EARLY SAT AM.

Inland areas and even the Palm Beach, Broward and Dade metro areas are in on this advisory, which is in effect until 8 AM Saturday. Just got home and can say it's pretty foggy out there. Drive safe y'all.

got this info off weatherbug

[NDG]

Vegetation is taking advantage of the rain earlier this week and now very warm temps, there is a nice coat of pollen on my car, way too early for this, pollen allergies is already killing me.

Sounding this morning showed mid level heights of 591-592 dm, impressive for this time of the year! 594dm in Key West!

[northjaxpro]

Vegetation is taking advantage of the rain earlier this week and now very warm temps, there is a nice coat of pollen on my car, way too early for this, pollen allergies is already killing me.

Sounding this morning showed mid level heights of 591-592 dm, impressive for this time of the year! 594dm in Key West!

Yeah, I noticed pollen on my black Corolla yesterday. As you said, even for here, it is way, way too early for this. In the coming days, we may approach temperatures as much as 20 degrees or so above the normal for this time of year. I expect to see record highs going into the start of 2015.

When is it going to get cold????????? I can't take this warm weather anymore. The ten day forecast shows high temps into the 80s everyday. It's sickening.

Well, SouthFloridian, just like last year this time, the old pesky Southeast United States ridge has come back to establish itself across our region. It is discouraging for some folks like me who would like to get in just a little bit of winter in these parts. This ridge on the models, especially the EURO as NDG showed above, looks very strong and it is not going away anytime soon. It looks certain that the ridge will be established right into through the first week in January at least. The NAO simply will not go negative South Floridian, and unfortunately for those wanting a colder pattern here, the upper trough will remain well entrenched across the Western U.S. and through the Intermountain West and Plains down into Texas through the next 10 days. The SE ridge will effectively block or deflect the cold air away from not only this region, but much of the U.S. Eastern seaboard as well.

So, as I mentioned earlier, we may not see the cold air into at least North Florida for about a couple of weeks, or into mid January at the least. I remember last winter the pesky SE ridge gave us one of the warmest December(s) ever on record across the peninsula and finally we saw a pattern change for colder weather as we got into the second week of January 2014. Bottom line, we will have to wait quite awhile before we see the colder air reach the peninsula. There is an incredible amount of arctic air that is being indicated on EURO going out long range across Canada, so eventually some of that will make it south and east, just not at least for the next 10 days in the Southeast U.S.

[TheStormExpert]

The NAO is going negative for a very brief period but according to NDG it will only affect the East Atlantic leaving us with this blasted SE Ridge.

SouthFloridian92, I understand how aggravating having to deal with this summer like heat and humidity during the middle of winter for a prolonged period can be. IMO it just feels plain disgusting and uncomfortable outside! After a slightly cool and less humid morning yesterday the humidity sky-rocketed by afternoon. Yuck! What a 180 degree flip from the cool/cold and much less humid conditions we were dealing with last week and the week before that.

Hopefully some good news involving cool/cold air will come sooner rather than later, or else it may be too late because as of this afternoon the latest CPC Outlooks just look downright horrible IMO.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, the NAO refuses to dip negative for any prolonged period of time in winter is what I was pointing out. It is remarkable and just extreme luck that this trend continues and that the NAO just hasn't gone negative enough to have arctic cold to really impact the peninsula in several years now.

[asd123]

Very hostile teleconnections for Florida cold as far as the eye can see. Cfla is forecasted to have well above average temps as far as the eye can see. Cfla forecast is generally going to be in the upper 70s low 80s for highs and low to upper 60s lows as far as the forecast sees. As others have noted, this is disgusting! I want the cold!

Just take a look at the weather forecast: http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/l/USFL0547:1:US
This isn't normal for winter; when is this gonna end?

northjaxpro talked about the se ridge; it's definitely not good. While the west experienced Arctic cold, it didn't come this way. Teleconnections aren't really favorable.

[TheStormExpert]

You know it's that bad when the GFS isn't even showing any of it's crazy ideas of bringing cold air into Florida in the long range like it has been almost every run so far this fall/winter season.

[asd123]

:uarrow: You know it's that bad when the GFS isn't even showing any of it's crazy ideas of bringing cold air into Florida in the long range like it has been almost every run so far this fall/winter season.

Yeah it was supposed to be cold and snowy tomorrow and early in the day after tomorrow according to the GFS:

18z GFS towards the end bitterly cold: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... F&hour=384 (This map is 204-306 total ) Single digits for north Fla and up to 6 in snow: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... I&hour=384 BRR.

Towards the end of the run, GFS bitterly cold temps, rain and snow for Florida, (http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... I&hour=384)
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... F&hour=384

1 inch of snow for Orlando too!!!: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

Sample: All images courtesy of Tropical Tidbits:

Deja Vu January 2010?


1pm temps same day



1pm temps next day



The teleconnections are forecasted to be very hostile, how can this come true?

[NDG]

Very hostile teleconnections for Florida cold as far as the eye can see. Cfla is forecasted to have well above average temps as far as the eye can see. Cfla forecast is generally going to be in the upper 70s low 80s for highs and low to upper 60s lows as far as the forecast sees. As others have noted, this is disgusting! I want the cold!

Just take a look at the weather forecast: http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/l/USFL0547:1:US
This isn't normal for winter; when is this gonna end?

northjaxpro talked about the se ridge; it's definitely not good. While the west experienced Arctic cold, it didn't come this way. Teleconnections aren't really favorable.

As I always preach, there's no such thing as normal weather

[psyclone]

I think this weather is perfect. there are very few places you can go in the US at this time of the year and have a decent shot @ warm weather and I can assure you that all of the tourists crowding our fine state didn't come down here to hope for cold. Agriculture and tourism are kicking butt so far this winter. Last night I washed the car in shorts and 70+ temps after 9pm. the beach bar across the street was packed with an outdoor band entertaining the crowd. Every warm day now is one less day of potential miserable cold/economically destructive freeze potential. Keep it coming.