Florida Weather

[boca]

I wish this SE ridge would just disappear.I have to endure the heat 10 out of 12 months.A few months of cooler weather is all I'm asking for.I will this SE ridge away and bring on the cold fronts who is with me?

[northjaxpro]

I am with you boca. I only wish for a solid month of cold down here, which is this time of year right now from mid Dec into latter part of January. Living here in Jax, we do get spells of cold of course, but I can understand living in South Florida how some down there get weary of the heat for sure.

[boca]

I am with you boca. I only wish for a solid month of cold down here, which is this time of year right now from mid Dec into latter part of January. Living here in Jax, we do get spells of cold of course, but I can understand living in South Florida how some down there get weary of the heat for sure.

Last night I was in West Palm Beach and the car thermeter said 79 degrees.The pattern will change but how much and how drastically.Why is it so hard to get a negative NAO,is it more the norm for it too be positive or either way.It seems to be that positive is more of the norm and occasionally it slips negative just to be positive once again.Can you tell I'm frustrated.

[SouthFloridian92]

:uarrow: The NAO is going negative for a very brief period but according to NDG it will only affect the East Atlantic leaving us with this blasted SE Ridge.

SouthFloridian92, I understand how aggravating having to deal with this summer like heat and humidity during the middle of winter for a prolonged period can be. IMO it just feels plain disgusting and uncomfortable outside! After a slightly cool and less humid morning yesterday the humidity sky-rocketed by afternoon. Yuck! What a 180 degree flip from the cool/cold and much less humid conditions we were dealing with last week and the week before that.

Hopefully some good news involving cool/cold air will come sooner rather than later, or else it may be too late because as of this afternoon the latest CPC Outlooks just look downright horrible IMO.

Yep, the persistent warm weather is giving me serious thoughts about leaving the state. I'm eyeing eastern TN and western NC or northern GA. Just don't know anyone up there. I do have some family in South Carolina however, maybe that would be a possibility.

Right now in Knoxville, it is 49 degrees and rainy; perfect weather for me. Meanwhile, here in Sebring, it is 82 degrees and the feel like is 84. Next Saturday shows the high temp at 85!

[gatorcane]

Seems the global models are picking up on the possibility of a pretty decent cold front for Florida around Jan 6th-8th.

That said, I agree with psyclone about how great this weather is. I will take this warmth anyday over the cold. Just got back from a nice bar on the intracoastal where temps were in the low to mid 80s with SE winds off the Atlantic ocean and nothing but sunny skies with some cumulus clouds here and there blowing in from the ocean, looked and felt like early May.

You just can't beat this weather as we head into January this week!

[Sanibel]

Abnormally warm. Beaches crowded. Can't beat it when it is 82* here and 28* in Minneapolis. You almost feel guilty about cheating the winter.

[gatorcane]

If you want cold weather in Florida don't look at the latest GFS run - 18Z GFS keeps warmer than normal temperatures for the FL peninsula for the next two weeks as the stubborn SW Atlantic/Caribbean ridge flexes it's muscle similar to last winter. In fact much of this time the temperatures are about 8-10F above normal and sometimes as much as 15F degrees above normal, especially the next 9-10 days or so.

[northjaxpro]

If you want cold weather in Florida don't look at the latest GFS run - 18Z GFS keeps warmer than normal temperatures for the FL peninsula for the next two weeks as the stubborn SW Atlantic/Caribbean ridge flexes it's muscle similar to last winter. In fact much of this time the temperatures are about 8-10F above normal and sometimes as much as 15F degrees above normal, especially the next 9-10 days or so.

That is correct I won't even bother to look at the models for a few days as Old Man Winter will stay put out west and we stay warm at least into mid January as it appears for now.

[TheStormExpert]

The only bright side I can think of is how fortunate we are that this SE ridge does not setup shop for a prolonged period of time during hurricane season or else the SE U.S. especially the Gulf Coast would be under the gun!

[northjaxpro]

I responded to something similar to this on a post you placed on the Deep South Thread.

[FireRat]

To add to all the recent Heat talk, I must admit it's not that bad out there. Highs have been only in the low 80s with feels like values in that range too, 60s for lows except at the beaches where they're near 70. It's mostly comfortably warm daytime and nice at night...it only sucks when you enter your car after leaving it in the sun for a long time. I'm happy as long as its below 85 degrees and the humidity is moderate or low. We really can't compare this to the typical Summertime 90 degrees w/ 105 degree heat index! The heck with that

After such a cool November and early December, I can't complain about this "heat wave" and will patiently await the return of cooler weather to South Florida sometime between Late January and April. Let's face it, we really can't ask for too much down here in a place that's borderline tropical.

[gatorcane]

GFS and ECMWF bring no significant cold weather to Florida and instead continue to show above normal temperatures for the foreseeable future. Why you ask? Look at that anomalously strong high pressure dome anchored over the NW Caribbean, Bahamas, and Southern Florida as shown by the 00Z ECMWF at 168 hours which is basically acting as a protector shield to Florida from any cold fronts penetrating the area, similar to last winter. I also included the corresponding GFS graphic during the same timeframe which is similar to the ECMWF though the ridge is centered a bit further east. So both our reliable computer models are in pretty good agreement on this warm weather pattern for Florida for the next 7 days.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS shows mid 80s for South Florida for this Sunday and, no significant cold air into Florida for the next two weeks. Perhaps winter is over .

Just kidding on calling winter cancel here, but no winter in sight from what I can see. Let's see what the 12Z ECMWF shows.

[TheStormExpert]

Everytime the models hint at a possible front actually bringing colder air to Florida by the next run or two they jump off that solution. Just yesterday the models were hinting at strongish cold front moving through Jan. 6-7 timeframe bringing cooler conditions. Today they backed off that solution alltogether, go figure.

Hopefully sooner rather than later one of these fronts has a big enough punch to plow through that stubborn SE ridge and change the pattern for good.

[FireRat]

FL peninsula & Cuba are the same temp lol

[gatorcane]

This graphic from NWS Miami pretty much sums it up...and I looked at the global models and there is just no cold air in the cards for Florida for a while:

This weather is perfect!

[gatorcane]

interesting spin in the clouds just a little north of West Palm. Here is the animated saved GIF:

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah I saw that late this morning when it was just off the coast of Martin/Palm Beach County.

[gatorcane]

The cyclonic turning is visible on the radar loop. Center of the low looks a little south of West Palm Beach now drifting south. If anything it is bringing some light rain showers across the Palm Beaches this hour...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

NWS Miami is calling it a "meso low":

000
FXUS62 KMFL 312133
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
433 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014

.UPDATE...HAVE GONE AHEAD TO UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REFLECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THEREAFTER. A FEW SHOWERS, ALBEIT LIGHT,
ARE DEVELOPING AROUND A MESO LOW CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL PALM
BEACH COAST. BROKEN BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE
LOW AND EXTEND BACK INTO SOUTHERN COLLIER COUNTY. AS THIS SMALL
SCALE FEATURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD, BRIEF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THIS NEW YEARS EVE NIGHT, HOPEFULLY NOT INTERFERING TOO
MUCH WITH NEW YEARS FESTIVITIES. HAPPY NEW YEARS EVERYONE!
/GREGORIA

[northjaxpro]

Yeah that is a neat spin down there currently. At least there is something interesting to look at in our corner of the world uh?

We did get a cool down today here with 52.1 degrees currently at my locale. The front will lift back north as a warm front by Friday and we will be back into the 70s before the start of the weekend.

Long range still has that Caribbean ridge firmly in control at least for the next 7-10 days across the peninsula. I tell you Mother Nature once again is giving us in Florida reprieve after reprieve from Old Man Winter. It is just amazing our luck.

Happy New Year everyone!!!