Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
452 AM AST SAT JUN 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SINKS SOUTH AND THEN MOVES WEST
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...KEEPING PUERTO RICO IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH MID WEEK AND IN GENERALLY
DIVERGENT FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC MOVES WEST
TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TUESDAY AND HOLDS
THERE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVES THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY MINOR BANDS OF MOISTURE AND THEN DRYING BY LATER IN
THE WEEK. A SECOND WAVE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND THROUGH PUERTO RICO ON SUNDAY OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE NUMEROUS BUT NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY
OVERNIGHT AS MOST OF THE WATERS NORTH...SOUTH AND EAST OF PUERTO
RICO RECEIVED AT LEAST SOME RAIN. SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN QUARTER OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL. THE
GFS IS KEEPING PUERTO RICO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DIVERGENT
EASTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HOLDS SWAY OVER
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
JUST EAST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ALSO INFLUENCING THE AREA TO THE
NORTH FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT WAVE...HOWEVER...IS NOT BEING
DEPICTED AS PARTICULARLY WET...HENCE NEXT WEEK WILL COMMENCE WITH A
MODERATE EVENT THAT MAY BE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED THOUGH INFLUENCED
IN PASSING BY THE TUTT WEST OF THE AREA . THEN THE TUTT THAT
DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS IN
THE AREA WITH HELP FROM NORMAL MOISTURE PRESENT. WOULD EXPECT
SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO
THIS WAVE. THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY NEAR 42 WEST AT 18
NORTH IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY 3 JULY. VISIBLE PICTURES
INDICATE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DUST BEHIND THIS WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE EASTERN THIRD OF
PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH ABOUT
25/13Z...AND THEN IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO... INCLUDING NEAR TJMZ...FROM 25/17Z
THROUGH ABOUT 25/21Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE DROPPED OVER MOST WATERS AND ARE NOW 4 TO 5
FEET. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AGAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FIRST WAVE NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NECESSARY...ESPECIALLY IN ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 79 / 30 30 30 40
STT 89 80 89 81 / 30 40 40 60

[WeatherGuesser]

Any thoughts on Barbados for the next 30 days or so?

[cycloneye]

Any thoughts on Barbados for the next 30 days or so?

The long range GFS shows a few waves moving thru,but no cyclone formation is seen as of today.Let's see in the next runs,if that changes.

[cycloneye]

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...GUAYNABO...SAN JUAN...TRUJILLO ALTO...DORADO...TOA
ALTA...TOA BAJA...CAROLINA...CATANO AND LOIZA

* UNTIL 1215 PM AST

* AT 1021 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH
ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE MUNICIPALITIES DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1847 6617 1846 6617 1847 6616 1845 6597
1832 6593 1830 6612 1831 6618 1837 6630
1848 6629

$$

ER
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
215 PM AST SAT JUN 25 2011

PRC021-033-051-061-127-137-143-145-252015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0249.110625T1815Z-110625T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-GUAYNABO PR-SAN JUAN PR-VEGA ALTA PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
DORADO PR-TOA BAJA PR-CATANO PR-
215 PM AST SAT JUN 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...GUAYNABO...SAN JUAN...VEGA ALTA...VEGA BAJA...
DORADO...TOA BAJA AND CATANO

* UNTIL 415 PM AST

* AT 213 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THESE MUNICIPALITIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1848 6629 1849 6625 1848 6624 1849 6618
1846 6617 1848 6614 1846 6606 1836 6607
1840 6622 1838 6643 1850 6644 1850 6642

$$

ER
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
329 PM AST SAT JUN 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ASSOCIATED MID TO UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE
TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTH SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY AS IT BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN THE
LOCAL REGION IN A GENERAL UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT PATTERN THROUGH
THE REGION.SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. AS A RESULT THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE NOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 48/49 WEST
AFTERNOON...WILL APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE SUNDAY...THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FAIRLY MOIST MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PATCHES OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLANDS
AND SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AIDED BY DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOCAL INFLUENCES WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER
LAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON SUNDAY...SIMILAR CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED...WITH SOME EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS TO BRUSH PARTS
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ...THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME EXPLOSIVE
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IN ISOLATED AREAS...BUT MAINLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO.
SO FAR BASED ON LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE...THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE PSBL IN ISOLD TO SCT PASSING SHWRS ACROSS THE USVI...CULEBRA...
VIEQUES...AND PARTS OF PR THROUGH AT LEAST 25/22Z. THEN...SCT PASSING
SHWRS AND AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...AND
MAY AFFECT TIST/TISX AND TNCM/TKPK BTWN 25/22Z THROUGH ABOUT 26/12Z.
LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS NEAR +SHRA/+TSRA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 79 89 / 30 30 40 50
STT 79 89 81 87 / 40 40 60 60

[Macrocane]

Good afternoon! It has been a cloudy day in Central America. In El Salvador light drizzle has been registered all day but since a few minutes ago moderate rains have been falling over San Salvador. It's important to mention that a low pressure has formed south of El Salvador. This is an excerpt from the latest Pacific TWD:

UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW S OF THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 21N107W
CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH ADDITIONAL
STRONGER CONVECTION RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE ALSO MOVING WESTWARD. OTHER CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA
BEING ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
HONDURAS AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE WAVE AXIS EXTENDS S TO
FAR NW NICARAGUA. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IN COMBINATION WITH
ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THIS PART OF
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION
TO CONTINUE ON THE UPWARD TREND OVER THOSE GEOGRAPHIC AREAS
STATED ABOVE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. EXPECT VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A
SMALL VORT MAX ALONG THE EASTERN END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS
RECENTLY MATERIALIZED INTO A WEAK 1009 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
12N90W MOVING SLOWLY NW...BUT WITH MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE N AND NE OF THE AREA OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...EXPECTED THE LOW
TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE 24-30 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

For our friend BZSTORM in Belize.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA. TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IS UNLIKELY WHILE THE WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...AND WITH CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND ADJACENT
CARIBBEAN WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
329 PM AST SAT JUN 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ASSOCIATED MID TO UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE
TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTH SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY AS IT BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN THE
LOCAL REGION IN A GENERAL UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT PATTERN THROUGH
THE REGION.SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. AS A RESULT THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE NOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 48/49 WEST
AFTERNOON...WILL APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE SUNDAY...THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FAIRLY MOIST MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PATCHES OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLANDS
AND SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AIDED BY DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOCAL INFLUENCES WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER
LAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON SUNDAY...SIMILAR CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED...WITH SOME EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS TO BRUSH PARTS
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ...THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME EXPLOSIVE
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IN ISOLATED AREAS...BUT MAINLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO.
SO FAR BASED ON LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE...THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE PSBL IN ISOLD TO SCT PASSING SHWRS ACROSS THE USVI...CULEBRA...
VIEQUES...AND PARTS OF PR THROUGH AT LEAST 25/22Z. THEN...SCT PASSING
SHWRS AND AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...AND
MAY AFFECT TIST/TISX AND TNCM/TKPK BTWN 25/22Z THROUGH ABOUT 26/12Z.
LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS NEAR +SHRA/+TSRA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 79 89 / 30 30 40 50
STT 79 89 81 87 / 40 40 60 60

[cycloneye]

Good morning.Rain is in the forecast for today thru tuesday in the NE Caribbean.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
556 AM AST SUN JUN 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE MONA
CHANNEL WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY WEST TO HAITI BY TUESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEAKLY DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 22N 37 WEST WILL MIGRATE WEST
TO NORTH OF PUERTO RICO BY WEDNESDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY. GOOD
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT ONLY ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY THE
FOLLOWING SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE THROUGH FLORIDA NEXT 10 DAYS.
THIS HOLDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THAT TIME. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ON
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE SEEN IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS WERE ALSO
OBSERVED IN THE CARIBBEAN AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS AT BOTH SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT CROIX.

THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE IS MOST NOTABLE IN MIMIC PRODUCT
WHERE A FINGER OF PRECIPITABLE WATER GREATER THAN 1.8 INCHES POKES
UP THROUGH 20 DEGREES LATITUDE NEAR 52 WEST. THIS FINGER HAS BEEN
MOVING ABOUT 6 AND TWO THIRDS DEGREES PER DAY AND WOULD BE EXACTLY
WHERE NAM AND UKMET PAINT IT BY 27/12Z AT THIS RATE. WINDS AT 850
MB ARE SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE ALSO
INCREASES OVERNIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE MODELS DIVERGE
GREATLY IN HANDLING WAVE PASSAGE. THE MOST PROFOUND DIFFERENCE IS
THE DRIER AIR THAT THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING IN AT 27/18Z. FOR SOME
REASON BOTH OF THESE SHOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 850 MB BELOW 50
PERCENT. SINCE ALL MODELS SHOW HIGH RH VALUES FOR MID AND UPPER
LEVELS ON MONDAY WOULD EXPECT CLOUDY DAY DYNAMICS TO APPLY. WITH
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN PLACE...AND EXPECTED TO GET A LITTLE CLOSER
WITH ITS SOUTHWARD MIGRATION DURING NEXT 48 HOURS...WOULD EXPECT
THE WAVE THAT CURRENTLY HAS NO DEEP CONVECTION TO EXHIBIT BETTER
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT APPROACHES THE DESTABILIZING INFLUENCE OF
THE TROUGH...THEREFORE WILL GO WITH THE NAM AND UKMET
INTERPRETATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE MONDAY MORNING WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THEN PUERTO
RICO...WHICH IS A CONTINUATION OF THE INHERITED FORECAST. WOULD
EXPECT DRYING BEHIND THE BAND OF CONVECTION BEHIND THE AXIS OF THE
WAVE LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ALL MODELS APPEAR TO BRING
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE ON TUESDAY THAT MAY BRING MORE RAIN THAN
THAT OF MONDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST. DUE TO THE WEAK
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE APPARENT AT THIS TIME AND THE EXPECTED
FRAGMENTATION OF THE MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE MODELS DURING
ITS PASSAGE DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING WITH THIS WAVE. MOISTURE THEN DIMINISHES SLOWLY ALONG
WITH THE DIMINISHING INFLUENCE OF THE TUTT LOW TO THE
WEST...REACHING A NADIR AROUND FRIDAY BEFORE RISING RAPIDLY AGAIN
FOR THE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT PASSAGE OF THE NEXT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 26/16Z. BETWEEN 26/16Z THROUGH 26/22Z...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS...TJMZ...AND TJBQ IN
SHRA/TSRA. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 15 KTS...EXCEPT GUSTY NEAR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...AS WINDS BEHIND THE WAVE INCREASE SEAS WILL ALSO
RISE...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS. HENCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY PERSIST FOR MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 79 / 40 50 50 30
STT 90 80 89 82 / 40 60 60 30

[Macrocane]

VERY HEAVY RAINS REGSTERED IN THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR

The low pressure in the Pacific and the tropical wave in the Caribbean have been producing rains since yesterday but they were particulary heavy in the coast line, actually some of the accumulations are the highest in 9 months I have no doubt that these rains are going to bring the monthly rainfall to normal and maybe above normal levels, these are some of yesterday's rainfall amounts:

La Union 212 mm/8.35 inches Highest 24 hours rainfall in the country since September 29 2010.
Acajutla 100 mm/3.94 inches Wetetst day in Acajutla since September 25 2010.
La Hachadura 80 mm/3.15 inches
Santiago de Maria 70 mm/2.76 inches
San Salvador 20 mm/0.79 inches

This map shows the rainfall between 7 am yesterday and 7 am today:

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST SUN JUN 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH/TUTT DIPS SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS FEATURE IS PRESENTLY CREATING A GOOD
DIVERGENT FIELD ALOFT WHICH IS AIDING IN THE ENHANCEMENT OF THE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND REGIONAL WATERS. EXPECT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A TROPICAL WAVE
CROSSES THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER THIS EVENING AND MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO
RICO AND REST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE LOCAL WATERS
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW NOW NORTH OF HISPANIOLA CUTS OFF AND SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY LATE MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
VERY UNSTABLE AND DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WHICH IN TURN
WOULD LEAD TO VERY EXPLOSIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH OF
THE ACTIVE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME ESPECIALLY
DURING THE TIME OF MAX HEATING ON MONDAY AND ON TUESDAY... AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
THE REGION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK GFS MODEL GUIDANCE AND PRESENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST HOT
AND SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS WITH GOOD CHANGE OF THE EXTENSIVE
AREA OF SAHARAN DUST FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST AND ENCOMPASSING
THE LOCAL AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY PRESENTLY SHOWED LEADING EDGE OF
SAHARAN AIR LAYER NOW NEARING 58 WEST AND TRAILING THE ABOVE MENTIONED
TROPICAL WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAILED ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ACROSS
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...AND PUERTO RICO
THROUGH AT LEAST 26/22Z. LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE
ESE AT 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS NEAR TSRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 88 79 / 40 40 50 30
STT 90 80 89 81 / 40 60 60 30

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall (rain is 8pmET Sat-8pmET Sun) for
Sun Jun 26 2011

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 31.6C 89F 8.3mm
Maraval, NW Trinidad 29.6C 85F 1.3mm
Crown Point, Tobago 31.8C 89F trace

Point Salines, Grenada 29.8C 86F 3.0mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 30.0C 86F 9.4mm
Rockley, S Barbados 31.8C 89F 18.8mm

Arnos Vale, St Vincent 29.6C 85F 5.1mm
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 29.3C 85F 14.0mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 31.8C 89F trace

Golden Rock, St Kitts 32.4C 90F 0.5mm
VC Bird, Antigua 31.1C 88F 0.9mm
San Juan, PR 31.7C 89F 0.3mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 32.1C 90F 7.3mm
Kingston, Jamaica 31.9C 90F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 33.7C 93F
Havana, Cuba 33.8C 93F 40.0mm
Key West, FL 31.7C 89F
Miami, FL 32.8C 91F 12.0mm
Nassau, Bahamas 31.7C 89F trace
Hamilton, Bermuda 29.0C 84F

Hato Airport, Curacao 31.3C 88F trace
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 32.7C 91F
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 31.5C 89F 0.5mm

INTERNATIONAL CITIES

New York City NY 26.1C 79F
Toronto, ON 22.9C 73F
Niagara Falls, ON 23.1C 74F
Ottawa, ON 25.3C 77F trace
Montreal, QC 24.7C 77F trace
London, UK 28.4C 83F
Paris, FR 29.1C 84F

-justin-

[Macrocane]

COOLER THAN NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPS IN CENTRAL AMERICA

Cooler than normal highs were registered today in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica, in El Salvador some places registered their coolest low in 9 months. Near normal highs occurred in the rest of the region. The lows were close to average in all the region as well.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16°C (61°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 11.8°C (53.2°F) Warmest since May 26.
Zacapa, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.1°C (68.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 13.8°C (56.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.9°C (73.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 19°C (66.2°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.2°C (64.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.1°C (71.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.5°C (74.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 14°C (57.2°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 27.7°C (81.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 18.7°C (65.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 24.8°C (76.6°F) Coolest since September 29 2010.
Las Pilas, El Salvador 16.8°C (62.2°F) Coolest since March 22.
San Miguel, El Salvador 25.5°C (77.9°F) Coolest since September 27 2010.
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 24°C (75°F) Coolest since January 13.
La Esperanza, Honduras 19°C (66°F) Coolest since April 23.
Choluteca, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 29°C (84°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.5°C (79.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 29.2°C (84.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.9°C (89.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.0°C (71.6°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Active weather is expected today as wave combines with trough.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
455 AM AST MON JUN 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. TODAY...A TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND THE PROXIMITY
OF AN UPPER LOW WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BRUSHED THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE SAN
JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA. THE ASOS AT THE LMM AIRPORT REPORTED .08
OF AN INCH FROM THESE SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SHOWERS MOVED
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS OR DISSIPATED...THE DOPPLER RADAR IS
SHOWING ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS
THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. THEREFORE EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AFFECTING THE USVI THROUGH SUNRISE AND LATER ON AFFECTING
THE CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA IS FORECAST TO
CUT OFF AND SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW
LOCATED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL HELP IN THE INFLUX OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. EXPECT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH SOME AFFECTING
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 27/16Z. BETWEEN 27/16Z THROUGH 27/22Z...MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS...TJMZ...AND TJBQ
IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 15 KTS...EXCEPT GUSTY
NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
A MODERATE CHOP ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. MARINERS SHOULD MONITORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL EASTERN ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
GENERATE WINDS OF ABOVE 30 KNOTS.





&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 91 80 / 50 30 30 30
STT 88 80 90 82 / 60 30 40 40

[knotimpaired]

We just got slammed.

Tuna Point is next.

I am back, hurricane season always has a way of dragging me in.

[cycloneye]

We just got slammed.

Tuna Point is next.

I am back, hurricane season always has a way of dragging me in.

Welcome back! That same first band that moved thru Vieques,passed thru here but was less strong with only a moderate shower. But more is comming later.

[knotimpaired]

It has been wild here on Vieques.

I Iam pleased to see my fellow buddies here.

K

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
205 PM AST MON JUN 27 2011

PRC015-025-029-035-037-053-057-063-069-077-085-089-095-103-109-119-
123-129-133-147-151-272100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0252.110627T1805Z-110627T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAGUAS PR-CAYEY PR-JUNCOS PR-GURABO PR-SAN LORENZO PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-
ARROYO PR-LUQUILLO PR-PATILLAS PR-MAUNABO PR-NAGUABO PR-CEIBA PR-
CANOVANAS PR-GUAYAMA PR-FAJARDO PR-HUMACAO PR-SALINAS PR-
SANTA ISABEL PR-RIO GRANDE PR-YABUCOA PR-VIEQUES PR-
205 PM AST MON JUN 27 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS...CAYEY...JUNCOS...GURABO...SAN LORENZO...LAS PIEDRAS...
ARROYO...LUQUILLO...PATILLAS...MAUNABO...NAGUABO...CEIBA...
CANOVANAS...GUAYAMA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...SALINAS...SANTA
ISABEL...RIO GRANDE...YABUCOA AND VIEQUES

* UNTIL 500 PM AST

* AT 159 PM AST...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITHIN A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA AS THEY
MOVE NORTHWEST FROM YABUCOA AND NAGUABO INTO GURABO AND LUQUILLO.
RADAR ESTIMATES CURRENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE INCH WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ANOTHER INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS NEAR 30 TO 40 MPH... INTENSE
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND EMBEDDED VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR
WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT PASSES.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1791 6638 1842 6571 1841 6563 1832 6553
1816 6556 1814 6570 1796 6584 1790 6603

$$

AAS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[msbee]

That "blob" looks like it is right over PR Luis.
is it expected to develop into anything?