Florida Weather

[NDG]

0z Euro run back to a colder solution from previous 12z run.
It shows low temps in the mid to upper 30s Thursday morning across the I-4 corridor with highs only going up into the upper 40s to near 50 because of low cloud cover off the Atlantic.
Hard to tell low temps for Friday morning, but I would imagine that the usual colder spots in central FL will see freezing temps.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS in and cold front still looks like a "go" for the FL peninsula for mid to late this week.

By the way, the past couple of runs of the GFS are starting to show an even more intense cold shot for mid January. Obviously it's long-range and subject to change but something to keep an eye on. Those are 7AM temps across Florida folks, so needless to say this could become a widespread freeze event for the peninsula if it verifies.

[SeGaBob]

If you look at 312 hours it's even colder than that. (Well for some areas anyway)

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF show the center of the Arctic High passing Florida well to the north, though the FL peninsula looks to get scraped by the Artic air. That is some arctic blast for the Mid-Atlantic that is for sure.

[NDG]

Most of central & southern FL may once again luck out, but areas like from Brooksville through Ocala and into north FL will be in the deep freeze. 12z Euro shows highs only in the upper 30s for most of north FL on Thursday.

[northjaxpro]

Thursday indeed potentially may be the coldest day of the winter season, especially since both the EURO and GFS since yesterday have gone considerably colder.

This is quite a massive Arctic High forercast to drop down into the Central Plains come the middle of next week. Both models are depicting 1050+ mb High, very strong and massive. Should this verify, very cold arctic air will drain all the way to the GOM and into North Florida.

Latest indications show the potential of hard freezes Thursday and Friday mornings of this upcoming week across North Florida with lows well down into the 20s.

It does appear that the massive Arctic High will stay far enough north of the peninsula to spare South Florida as the axis of the High should bring about an onshore flow down there if the forecast holds true for now. But, nevertheless, a very signifcant cold spell is coming for the northern portions of the state for the latter portions of next week.

I am sure along with me that NDG, Gatorcane, StormExpert, asd123 and the rest of the gang will be closely watching this situation next week. It appears Old Man Winter will give some of us a decent dose of cold next week.

[TheStormExpert]

Just checked the 18z GFS and it has trended colder for all of Florida.

[asd123]

Thursday indeed potentially may be the coldest day of the winter season, especially since both the EURO and GFS since yesterday have gone considerably colder.

This is quite a massive Arctic High forercast to drop down into the Central Plains come the middle of next week. Both models are depicting 1050+ mb High, very strong and massive. Should this verify, very cold arctic air will drain all the way to the GOM and into North Florida.

Latest indications show the potential of hard freezes Thursday and Friday mornings of this upcoming week across North Florida with lows well down into the 20s.

It does appear that the massive Arctic High will stay far enough north of the peninsula to spare South Florida as the axis of the High should bring about an onshore flow down there if the forecast holds true for now. But, nevertheless, a very signifcant cold spell is coming for the northern portions of the state for the latter portions of next week.

I am sure along with me that NDG, Gatorcane, StormExpert, asd123 and the rest of the gang will be closely watching this situation next week. It appears Old Man Winter will give some of us a decent dose of cold next week.

This seems to be a potent cold snap for Florida. For cfla though it will only last for 2 days. But for those two days for cfla: Model consensus shows between -3 and 0 850 mb temps for cfla. For the two days temps are forecasted to range from the lower to mid 30s for lows and low to mid 50s to low 60s for highs. After that quick warmup for cfla!!!

Beyond that there were hints in the long range beyond 10 days that the GFS was forecasting persistently (18z dropped) major cold for Florida.

There is a SSW developing and that means possibly even more cold further in the long range.

Over the next two weeks, the teleconnections seem to be morphing towards a more -AO, -NAO, -EPO and positive PNA. Maybe colder weather will be more favorable and frequent soon?

[TheStormExpert]

Thursday indeed potentially may be the coldest day of the winter season, especially since both the EURO and GFS since yesterday have gone considerably colder.

This is quite a massive Arctic High forercast to drop down into the Central Plains come the middle of next week. Both models are depicting 1050+ mb High, very strong and massive. Should this verify, very cold arctic air will drain all the way to the GOM and into North Florida.

Latest indications show the potential of hard freezes Thursday and Friday mornings of this upcoming week across North Florida with lows well down into the 20s.

It does appear that the massive Arctic High will stay far enough north of the peninsula to spare South Florida as the axis of the High should bring about an onshore flow down there if the forecast holds true for now. But, nevertheless, a very signifcant cold spell is coming for the northern portions of the state for the latter portions of next week.

I am sure along with me that NDG, Gatorcane, StormExpert, asd123 and the rest of the gang will be closely watching this situation next week. It appears Old Man Winter will give some of us a decent dose of cold next week.

This seems to be a potent cold snap for Florida. For cfla though it will only last for 2 days. But for those two days for cfla: Model consensus shows between -3 and 0 850 mb temps for cfla. For the two days temps are forecasted to range from the lower to mid 30s for lows and low to mid 50s to low 60s for highs. After that quick warmup for cfla!!!

Beyond that there were hints in the long range beyond 10 days that the GFS was forecasting persistently (18z dropped) major cold for Florida.

There is a SSW developing and that means possibly even more cold further in the long range.

Over the next two weeks, the teleconnections seem to be morphing towards a more -AO, -NAO, -EPO and positive PNA. Maybe colder weather will be more favorable and frequent soon?

What does SSW stand for?

[psyclone]

sudden stratospheric warming

[NDG]

The good news for central and south FL is that the Euro and GFS have not trended colder, if anything they both came in a tad warmer on its 0z runs. MOS guidance is still not biting on the cold air. The positive NAO doing its magic for us

BTW, woke up this morning to the birds outside singing as if it was a Spring morning after a low of only 70 degrees.

[NDG]

Thursday indeed potentially may be the coldest day of the winter season, especially since both the EURO and GFS since yesterday have gone considerably colder.

This is quite a massive Arctic High forercast to drop down into the Central Plains come the middle of next week. Both models are depicting 1050+ mb High, very strong and massive. Should this verify, very cold arctic air will drain all the way to the GOM and into North Florida.

Latest indications show the potential of hard freezes Thursday and Friday mornings of this upcoming week across North Florida with lows well down into the 20s.

It does appear that the massive Arctic High will stay far enough north of the peninsula to spare South Florida as the axis of the High should bring about an onshore flow down there if the forecast holds true for now. But, nevertheless, a very signifcant cold spell is coming for the northern portions of the state for the latter portions of next week.

I am sure along with me that NDG, Gatorcane, StormExpert, asd123 and the rest of the gang will be closely watching this situation next week. It appears Old Man Winter will give some of us a decent dose of cold next week.

This seems to be a potent cold snap for Florida. For cfla though it will only last for 2 days. But for those two days for cfla: Model consensus shows between -3 and 0 850 mb temps for cfla. For the two days temps are forecasted to range from the lower to mid 30s for lows and low to mid 50s to low 60s for highs. After that quick warmup for cfla!!!

Beyond that there were hints in the long range beyond 10 days that the GFS was forecasting persistently (18z dropped) major cold for Florida.

There is a SSW developing and that means possibly even more cold further in the long range.

Over the next two weeks, the teleconnections seem to be morphing towards a more -AO, -NAO, -EPO and positive PNA. Maybe colder weather will be more favorable and frequent soon?

Like I have mentioned for the past month or so regarding the NAO going into a negative regime, I believe it when I see it, and so far I have been right

[northjaxpro]

A lot NDG is going to depend on the positioning of the massive Arctic High later this week. If the High sinks a bit farther south, toward the Deep South, a good chance Central Florida may see lows in the lower 30s and low-to mid 20s will be widespread across North Florida, with upper teens possible over the panhandle.

This is what happened back in November. The High axis did get close enough to the SE US to give North Florida record breaking cold. Yes, the NAO was neutral/positive during the arctic outbreak back in November, but the difference this time is we will be likely dealing with an even stronger High Pressure (1050+mb) on this occasion later this week. If the High moves due east, then onshore flow from the Atlantic will set in much faster and that will protect the peninsula from the blount of the coldest aira except for the northern peninsula.

So, pay attention to see any deviations which may occur with the positioning of the massive Arctic High in the model runs as a very important factor. Right now, the models have the HP to sink out of Canada and be centered across the Central Plains by Thursday morning. If the HP axis shifts south and east into the Tennessee Valley area, the axis, albeit still north of the peninsula, would still get close enough to drain some of that extreme arctic air into the North Florida and bring the freeze line deep down into the North-Central peninsula by Friday morning.

There will be the typical tweaks of the models, but I personally don't expect any major deviations with them now that we are inside of 96 hours of this event.

[NDG]

Very true northjax pro, but keep in mind that both the Euro and GFS also show that winds at H925 start shifting very fast from the Atlantic as early as Thursday morning bringing in some moisture at that level, that will not be ideal conditions for radiational cooling. I also noticed how by Thursday morning the isobars become almost parallel to the mid and upper level winds from west to east, something that I have always heard is not a good set up for cold air advection.
But like I said yesterday, I would not be surprised that the usual colder spots of central FL from the Brooksville area northward towards the Ocala area where we usually see the cold air drain down without a problem for them to see freezing temps Thursday morning and possibly Friday morning just like it happened back in November and a couple of days in December.
By the way, the 0z Euro showed low temps in the upper 30s to low 40s for central FL, mid 50s to near 60 for S FL for Thursday morning, even warmer for Friday morning.

[gatorcane]

Well certainly looks like an impressive cold outbreak for Florida especially Central and Northern Florida, where based on the latest 06Z GFS, temps in the 30s dig down into West-Central Florida away from the coast, with widespread 20s across northern Florida. That freezeline is approaching the northern areas of Tampa on this run.

But based on these temp graphics, it would appear the east coast of Florida from Central Florida south will benefit from some kind of mixing/onshore flow as NDG and northjaxpro mention above.

[NDG]

Time to start posting the MOS guidance, we are within 4 days of the event now. Compared to GFS and Euro raw numbers these are still higher so most likely these numbers will come down at least a couple of degrees over the next few days.

12z GFSX MOS:

Jacksonville (JAX)
Thursday: low 31, high 48
Friday: low 31, high 51

Tallahassee
Thursday: low 22, high 50
Friday: low 26, high 57

Pensacola
Thursday: low 24, high 44
Friday: low 28, high 57

Ocala
Thursday: low 33, high 55
Friday: low 33, high 65

Tampa (TPA)
Thursday: low 47, high 60
Friday: low 44, high 69

Orlando (MCO)
Thursday: low 42, high 62
Friday: low 44, high 70

Naples
Thursday: low 53, high 71
Friday: low 54, high 76

Miami
Thursday: low 62, high 72
Friday: low 64, high 77

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/get ... H&sta=KTPA

[NDG]

One thing that is limiting how cold the FL Peninsula will be getting is the very limited snow cover across the eastern US, non-existing in the SE US. IMO.

[NDG]

Updated 0z GFSX MOS:

Jacksonville (JAX)
Thursday: low 29, high 48
Friday: low 31, high 58

Tallahassee
Thursday: low 24, high 47
Friday: low 27, high 55

Pensacola
Thursday: low 21, high 45
Friday: low 29, high 52

Ocala
Thursday: low 31, high 56
Friday: low 36, high 64

Tampa (TPA)
Thursday: low 47, high 60
Friday: low 44, high 69

Orlando (MCO)
Thursday: low 42, high 62
Friday: low 46, high 72

Naples
Thursday: low 51, high 60
Friday: low 55, high 77

Miami
Thursday: low 60, high 72
Friday: low 65, high 77

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/get ... H&sta=KTPA

Not much change from yesterday's Euro and GFS runs, upper 30s to low 40s across for the I-4 corridor for Thursday morning.

[gatorcane]

GFS 06Z map of Temps for overnight Wed/Thu., morning which looks to be the coldest night for this cold snap:



It's interesting to note the 850MB temps from the Euro have warmed considerably for this cold snap:

[FireRat]

Local Mets are calling Thursday's cool-down just a little one for those of us in Southeast Florida, keeping highs in the 70s for the Miami metro region on that day, meaning just a 10 degree drop at most, with lows not falling below 60 except in the western suburbs. Looks like temps will be back in the 80s by the weekend, along with humidity. Looks like a big miss for South Florida if you hope for cold weather, any thoughts y'all?

Was 84 today in several spots with hot sunshine, so 74 will feel great nonetheless!