Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

That "blob" looks like it is right over PR Luis.
is it expected to develop into anything?

No,because the wave is interacting with an upper low located near Hispanola.But I just clocked 37 mph in a gust on my anemometer in my house.

[msbee]

That "blob" looks like it is right over PR Luis.
is it expected to develop into anything?

No,because the wave is interacting with an upper low located near Hispanola.But I just clocked 37 mph in a gust on my anemometer in my house.

wow, that's amazing. have you had much rain?

[cycloneye]

That "blob" looks like it is right over PR Luis.
is it expected to develop into anything?

No,because the wave is interacting with an upper low located near Hispanola.But I just clocked 37 mph in a gust on my anemometer in my house.

wow, that's amazing. have you had much rain?

Not much here,but in other parts of the island, it is raining a lot.

[Macrocane]

It has been another cloudy day in El Salvador, with nice and cool temperatures and light rains. Yesterday was more rainy than today, some places registered again more than 4 inches of rain in just 24 hours, the highest accumulation was 142.9 mm/5.63 inches in La Hachadura, here's the map with the rainfall from 7 am yesterday to 7 am today:

[cycloneye]

Better weather is comming starting on Wednesday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
502 PM AST MON JUN 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE JUST SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...AND
THEN MOVE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE TOMORROW MORNING. AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A DIFFLUENT PATTERN
ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BEFORE IT SLOWLY MOVES
SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY MID-WEEK. WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR...ACCOMPANYING A LARGE
AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A VERY ACTIVE DAY HAS BEEN SEEN ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A SERIES OF
SQUALL LINES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...MOVED THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL THIRD OF PUERTO RICO. SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS
OUTFLOWS AT AROUND 8 AM AST AND 2 PM AST GENERATED WINDS BETWEEN
35 AND 50 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAGUAS...GUAYNABO..AGUAS
BUENAS...LUQUILLO WERE SEVERAL TREES WENT DOWN. DUE TO THE RAPID
MOVEMENT OF THESE THUNDERS TOMS...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE
GENERALLY BETWEEN ONE TO TWO INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN YABUCOA.

LINGERING INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL HELP TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL START TO STABILIZE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW ALOFT SLOWLY MOVES AWAY AND RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE ISLANDS. OVERALL...BETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR WITH EMBEDDED SAHARAN DUST
MOVES OVER THE LOCAL REGION

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT MOST TAF SITES TONIGHT...
HOWEVER THE EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS...MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL BRING TEMPO MVFR/IFR DUE TO LOW
CIGS AND SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY TO THE FLYING AREA...AS WELL AS MOST
TAF SITES AT LEAST TIL 27/23Z. IN ADDITION...LOCAL WND GUST OF
25-35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONG TSTM ACTIVITY AND EN
ROUTE BETWEEN PR AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS INCLUDING THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 91 80 91 / 30 30 30 30
STT 80 90 82 91 / 30 40 40 40

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall (rain is 8pmET Sun-8pmET Mon) for
Mon Jun 27 2011

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 32.4C 90F 0.4mm HAZE
Crown Point, Tobago 32.2C 90F 0.3mm HAZE
Point Salines, Grenada 31.9C 90F 0.2mm HAZE
Grantley Adams, Barbados 31.2C 88F trace HAZE

Arnos Vale, St Vincent 32.0C 90F HAZE
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 31.3C 88F 4.9mm HAZE
Melville Hall, Dominica 32.0C 90F 14.3mm
LeLamentin, Martinique 31.9C 90F 18.8mm

Golden Rock, St Kitts 31.1C 88F 5.0mm HAZE
VC Bird, Antigua 30.8C 88F 9.1mm HAZE
San Juan, PR 27.8C 82F 5.0mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 31.8C 90F trace
Kingston, Jamaica 33.0C 91F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 33.3C 92F
Havana, Cuba 32.9C 91F 10.0mm
Key West, FL 32.2C 90F
Miami, FL 32.8C 91F
Nassau, Bahamas 32.0C 90F
Hamilton, Bermuda 29.2C 85F trace

Hato Airport, Curacao 31.2C 88F
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 32.5C 91F 1.2mm
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 31.5C 89F

INTERNATIONAL SPOTS
HEAT WAVE GRIPS PARTS OF EUROPE

New York City NY 27.8C 82F
Toronto ON 24.6C 76F
Niagara Falls, ON 25.3C 77F
Ottawa, ON 26.5C 80F
Montreal, QC 26.8C 80F
London, UK 31.2C 88F
Paris, FR 36.5C 98F

-justin-

[Macrocane]

-Nice and cooler than normal highs were registered again today in Guatemala and parts of El Salvador.
-Warmer than normal highs were registered in Nicaragua and Costa Rica, in the rest of the region they were near normal.
-Near normal lows occurred in most of the region, except for Belize that experienced warmer than normal lows.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 28°C (82°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 23.2°C (73.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 10.7°C (51.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.9°C (69.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 13.8°C (56.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.3°C (63.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.2°C (72.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.8°C (73.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.0°C (59.0°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 29.4°C (84.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 20°C (68°F) Coolest since January 14.
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 17.0°C (62.6°F) Coolest since January 13.
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 26.6°C (79.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 16.8°C (62.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 33.4°C (92.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 32°C (90°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 29.7°C (85.5°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.9°C (91.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.4°C (88.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.3°C (72.1°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1109 PM AST MON JUN 27 2011

.UPDATE...TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE LATE THIS
MONDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY
AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS
FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE SOUTH...EAST AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. INHERITED
SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO BOTH TO ALTER
THE WEATHER...SK COVER...POPS AND WINDS IN SEVERAL ZONES AND TO
JUST KEEP THE FORECAST CURRENT WITH OBSERVED CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING ADDING IN SOME HAZE TO THE GRIDS FOR TUESDAY AS AREA OF
SAL ENCOMPASSES THE LOCAL AREA.

FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...MADE A COUPLE OF MINOR ALTERATIONS TO
THE PREVIOUS CWF...MAINLY TO THE SYNOPSIS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.
SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS MONDAY.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Better weather than yesterday is expected today as the wave moves away. Another one will move thru the area by next Saturday.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
544 AM AST TUE JUN 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
REGION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL AREA AND DISSIPATED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ANOTHER
ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGIONAL WATERS
SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED A BIG AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWEST. DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT LITTLE RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS LAND AREAS. THIS BAD WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH CONTINUES WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA...AND AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH PASSED OVER PUERTO
RICO MONDAY. THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL AREA THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...A SLOWLY IMPROVEMENT IN
THE WEATHER LOCALLY IS EXPECT TO OCCUR...AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE EAST. IN FACT...MODELS INDICATED DRY AIR AT
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES...SHOWS A BIG AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH SOME ALREADY
AFFECTING THE ISLANDS. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE ISLAND
OF BARBADOS SHOWED HAZE CONDITIONS OVER THE ISLAND. NAAPS AEROSOL
LOOPER...SHOWS SAHARAN AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION STARTING
TODAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WHICH WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA IS A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
LOCAL REGION BY SATURDAY...INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE LOCAL AREA. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
WAVE...WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE DETERMINE
MAINLY BY DAYTIME HEATING...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND OROGRPAHIC EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 28/16Z. BETWEEN 28/16Z THROUGH 28/22Z...MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS...TJMZ...AND TJBQ
IN SH RA/TSRA. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 15 KTS...EXCEPT GUSTY
NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 91 80 / 40 30 30 20
STT 90 81 89 82 / 20 40 40 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
320 PM AST TUE JUN 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF HISPANOLA WILL CONTINUE TO
RETROGRESS AND MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AT MID LEVELS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC
WILL PRODUCE A STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. A RELATIVELY DRIER AIR AND A LARGE PULSE OF
SAHARAN DUST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS DURING THE 24 TO 36 HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS DRIER AIR MOVES
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A SUBSIDENT/DRY PATTERN THAT WILL LIMIT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION...A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING SURFACE
RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN NIGHT TIME/EARLY
MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH AND EAST PUERTO RICO. ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE LIMITED AND MOSTLY
SHALLOW AND DEVELOP FARTHER DOWNWIND DUE TO THE STRONGER FLOW.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EMBEDDED
IN THE LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND WILL RESULT IN
INCREASINGLY HAZY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. THIS
HAZY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...TO PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER BTW 28/18-28/22Z...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ALONG PARTS OF CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PR...AND MAINLY
OVR OR AROUND TJSJ...TJMZ...AND TJBQ IN PASSING SHRA/TSRA. SFC WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 15-20 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER. SAHARAN
AIR LAYER AND SUSPENDED DUST PARTICULATES APPROX BTW 050-160 KFT
WITH GENERAL WIND FLO E-SE 20-30 KTS BLO 200 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...SMALL BOAT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.
THEN...THE WINDS IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 79 90 / 30 30 40 40
STT 81 90 82 91 / 40 40 20 20

[msbee]

Crown Weather Services


Issued: Tuesday, June 28, 2011 645 pm EDT/545 pm CDT

If you cannot see the maps, images and weather related graphics in your e-mail, you can view the entire forecast with the maps, images and weather related graphics at:
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557 .

Looking More Likely That A Tropical Depression Or Tropical Storm Will Develop In The Bay Of Campeche Tonight Or Wednesday:
Reconnaissance aircraft investigated an area of low pressure in the Bay Of Campeche, designated Invest 95-L, and was able to find a low-level center of circulation. Shower and thunderstorm activity, however, is not very well organized as of late this afternoon and this system is not yet a tropical depression.

Environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable tonight and Wednesday and it will not take much for Invest 95-L to be upgraded to a tropical depression.

All interests along the eastern coast of Mexico in the states of Tamaulipas and Veracruz should closely monitor the progress of this system. Tropical Storm Warnings may be issued for these areas either tonight or during Wednesday morning. The main threat from this system, however, will be heavy rainfall with the threat for flash flooding and mudslides across eastern Mexico tonight through Wednesday.

[cycloneye]

Crown Weather Services


Issued: Tuesday, June 28, 2011 645 pm EDT/545 pm CDT

If you cannot see the maps, images and weather related graphics in your e-mail, you can view the entire forecast with the maps, images and weather related graphics at:
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557 .

Looking More Likely That A Tropical Depression Or Tropical Storm Will Develop In The Bay Of Campeche Tonight Or Wednesday:
Reconnaissance aircraft investigated an area of low pressure in the Bay Of Campeche, designated Invest 95-L, and was able to find a low-level center of circulation. Shower and thunderstorm activity, however, is not very well organized as of late this afternoon and this system is not yet a tropical depression.

Environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable tonight and Wednesday and it will not take much for Invest 95-L to be upgraded to a tropical depression.

All interests along the eastern coast of Mexico in the states of Tamaulipas and Veracruz should closely monitor the progress of this system. Tropical Storm Warnings may be issued for these areas either tonight or during Wednesday morning. The main threat from this system, however, will be heavy rainfall with the threat for flash flooding and mudslides across eastern Mexico tonight through Wednesday.

Is now Tropical Storm Arlene.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
553 AM AST WED JUN 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE EAST
AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION. THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES ON FRIDAY AND MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A QUIET NIGHT PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER THE
ISLANDS OF SAINT CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL DETECTED. A RELATIVELY DRIER AND STABLE
AIR MASS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. ALSO...LATEST
SATELITE IMAGES INDICATED DENSE SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXIT THE LOCAL AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. HAZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...WITH
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
REGION. THEREFORE...MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION SATURDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 29/16Z. BETWEEN 29/16Z THROUGH 29/22Z...MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS...TJMZ...AND
TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 15 TO 20
KTS. HAZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST TERMINAL TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 79 / 20 40 40 10
STT 90 81 90 82 / 30 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
337 PM AST WED JUN 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY...AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. AREAS OF SAHARAN DUST
EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE LOCAL AREA EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONLY A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATED STREAMERS IN THE LEEWARD SIDE OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES. MOST OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STREAMERS REMAIN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

NAAPS AEROSOL MODELING AND AEROSOL OPTICAL THICKNESS PRODUCTS
SHOW ADDITIONAL PULSES OF DRIER AIR AND SAHARAN DUST MOVING
THROUGHOUT THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS COINCIDE WITH ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS
SUGGEST A DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE
SPIKE AGAIN SATURDAY...WHEN THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...EXPECT HAZY AND LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE LIMITED AND MOSTLY
SHALLOW AND DEVELOP FARTHER DOWNWIND DUE TO THE STRONGER FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND ISOLD MTN OBSCURATIONS IN
PASSING SHRA/TSRA WILL BE PRESENT IN NORTHERN PUERTO RICO TIL
29/21Z...THEN VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 30/16Z. SFC WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY EAST AT 10-20 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. SAHARAN
AIR LAYER AND SUSPENDED DUST PARTICULATES APPROX BTW 050-160 KFT
WILL LIMIT VSBYS AS LOW AS 6 MILES UNDER CERTAIN LIGHTING CONDITIONS
WITH GENERAL WIND FLO E-SE 20-30 KTS BELOW 20 KFT.


&&

.MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH WILL INDUCE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS WILL
CREATE SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR
THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 79 90 / 20 20 10 20
STT 81 91 82 90 / 20 20 10 30

[Gustywind]

That's amazing to see how often i have suffered from these internet troubles to connect on S2K! Glad to see you my friends, are you in shape?
Arlene is already there, the season has begun early, let's continue to track all these twaves now...

Gustywind

[Gustywind]

[Macrocane]

It was a very average day in Central America today as the highs and lows were pretty normal for this time of year, only parts of Panama had cooler than normal highs.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 23.0°C (73.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 11°C (52.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.9°C (69.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 14.9°C (58.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 24.0°C (75.2F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.5°C (65.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.8°C (73.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.9°C (75.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.8°C (58.6°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 30.8°C (87.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.9°C (69.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 36°C (97°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 28.7°C (83.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.3°C (68.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.1°C (95.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 33°C (91°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.1°C (82.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.7°C (92.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 28.9°C (84.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 24.2°C (75.6°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1000 PM AST WED JUN 29 2011

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY...HAZY SKIES WITH LIMITED SHOWERS ACTIVITY
PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS EVENING. THE DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR DETECTED ONLY FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...
VIEQUES...THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THE LIMITED AVAILABLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAL TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53 WEST LATE
THIS EVENING...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES ON
FRIDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...MAINLY ON SATURDAY.
CWF AND ZFP HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...BUT SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO BOTH TO ALTER THE
WEATHER...SKY COVER...POPS AND WINDS IN SEVERAL ZONES AND TO JUST
KEEP THE FORECAST CURRENT WITH OBSERVED CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT AND IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
504 AM AST THU JUN 30 2011

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE EAST
AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION. THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES ON FRIDAY AND MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. LITTLE ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER
LAND AREAS. SOME PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE MAIN FEATURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LATE TOMORROW AND SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL REGION IN THE LONG TERM AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 10-20 KTS...WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND SUSPENDED DUST
PARTICULATES APPROX BTW 050-160 KFT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR THAT WILL GENERATE BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TJMZ BETWEEN 17Z TO 21Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 90 78 / 20 10 20 30
STT 90 81 90 80 / 20 10 30 30