Texas Spring 2019

[Haris]

Intersting how the latest wrf has the 2nd swath of heaviest precip now in SCTX. Expect surprises.

[South Texas Storms]

A big storm cluster is moving into DFW right now and we have no posts about it? Man I guess most people here really are only interested in snow and cold. It's a shame because we can get exciting weather at all other times of the year as well!

I'm really curious to see how things play out in south central TX tomorrow. Hoping for another good widespread soaking rain event!

[Ntxw]

The area in southern Collin County around Wylie radar estimates are about 2". That area might see around 4-5" tonight alone! But yeah cluster is moving into DFW and a long way to go.

[rwfromkansas]

Is it my imagination or does the cell going into Tarrant have a spin on it? Is that an MCV? It is pouring like nuts in the cell that fired up in north FW ahead of that line.

[Ntxw]

Is it my imagination or does the cell going into Tarrant have a spin on it? Is that an MCV? It is pouring like nuts in the cell that fired up in north FW ahead of that line.

Looks like it. Really it's impulses waving through along the boundary. Training.

[bubba hotep]

Can confirming that the bottom has fallen out here in Collin County! Also, some 3"+ totals already showing up west of Ft. Worth with storms lining up along I20 all the way out into West Texas. We could see some 7-9" totals with this system.

[Ntxw]

Can confirming that the bottom has fallen out here in Collin County! Also, some 3"+ totals already showing up west of Ft. Worth with storms lining up along I20 all the way out into West Texas. We could see some 7-9" totals with this system.

Somebody's going to get some crazy totals. Some extra on-top of that once the ULL spins through and backside rains. This was well seen about a week ago starting with the big SOI crash.

From last Wednesday.

The models are advertising a slow moving trough next week. I think that will be a good shot at significant heavy rains across the state. The recent SOI crash is a good indicator of a slow moving SW-SC trough.

[Haris]

Ntxw, do you think we cash in tom down here? I see an outflow pushing S near San Saba tonight

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, do you think we cash in tom down here? I see an outflow pushing S near San Saba tonight

You guys will do well. Tonight and early tomorrow is mostly driven by the boundary and impulses moving through. Flooding risk in North Texas. As the ULL comes out it will be more concentrated to Central Texas tomorrow afternoon and evening.

[Cerlin]

Sorry I haven’t been too active—April has been such a busy month for me—but loving the rain and thunder around me tonight. Wouldn’t be surprised to surpass 3 inches before midnight here.

[rwfromkansas]

Already .83, and .20 of that came in about 10 minutes here in N FW. Station says 2 inches per hour rainfall rate.

Edit to add the total is now .98 just a few minutes later!

[Cerlin]

Heavy downpour now in West Frisco.

[funster]

70 mph winds possible and very heavy rain likely with storm moving into Dallas county. Should add at least a quick inch of rain with this.

[Ntxw]

Storm moving into Erath County (Stephenville) is taking the same path slowly NE. Will cross DFW same way as this first one.

Pouring buckets and wind at DFW airport.

[rwfromkansas]

The front is almost to Tarrant per SPC, so I may not get much more if it moves faster than expected.

But, already got 1.25. Even a few more storms and will easily get 3 inches. I think 2 inches is a given as more stuff is moving up from the southwest.

I think DFW has a bit of a higher shot of 3-4 inches being slightly further away from the front.

[bubba hotep]

[bubba hotep]

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0154
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1123 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

Areas affected...North Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240322Z - 240645Z

Summary...Several clusters of thunderstorms should move across
North Texas tonight. The tracks of these storms may overlap,
providing several rounds of heavy rainfall. This may lead to
localized flash flooding, with hourly rain rates in the strongest
storms approaching 2 inches.

Discussion...At 03Z, regional radars showed two convective
clusters with a similar overall mesoscale structure.
Forward-propagating clusters (compact bow echoes) were located
over Comanche and Tarrant Counties. Each cluster had a distinct,
broad and strong mesovortex on the northern half of the cluster,
and a wing of convection extended east from each. And finally,
trailing convection was noted on the upshear flank of both
clusters, likely forming on the periphery of some weak boundary
layer cold pools. The potential tracks of each cluster and its
associated convective elements do create some opportunities for
overlap. For example, the preceding wing of convection from the
Comanche County cluster was actually north of the trailing
convection associated with the Tarrant County cluster. And the
wing of convection on the northeast side of the DFW metro area has
already produced very heavy rain over southern Collin County, and
upstream convection may track over the same area. Therefore, some
locations could conceivably receive 1-2 hours of training
convection, which could lead to flash flooding, particularly if it
occurs over an urbanized area.

The environment will remain favorable for organized convection
over the next few hours. RAP analyzed MUCAPE exceeds 1000 j/kg and
the 00Z FWD sounding showed around 1700 j/kg of CAPE rooted near
the surface. When combined with precipitable water values around
1.5 inches (GPS-PW; 00Z FWD sounding), hourly rain rates
approaching 2 inches seems reasonable. One limiting factor will be
the forward propagating nature of the dominant convective
clusters. Forecast forward-propagating storm motions are nearly
west-to-east, while the deep layer mean wind is more southwesterly
(roughly parallel to the surface front and thetae gradient). The
result should be a tendency to move off the surface boundary,
which typically reduces the time frame for training. Nevertheless,
as described above, there should still be opportunities for
training in more focused areas, which could yield some localized
flash flooding. Upstream convection over the Concho Valley region
of Central Texas will be monitored for potential additional
rainfall layer in the night, beyond 06Z. This could maintain a
flash flood threat into the early morning hours in some parts of
North Texas.

Lamers

[Ntxw]

60mph wind gust recorded at DFW airport. Oncor is also showing power outages in the urban core areas that the winds blew through. Nearing 2" at the airport too.

[bubba hotep]

[bubba hotep]