Texas Summer 2019

[DFW Stormwatcher]

No reason why Austin is having 27 days of 100+ weather, given the wet Spring and June we had, and DFW just up the road, nine days(??).

The Mabry weather station sensor is really close to the Mopac asphalt jungle, which has expanded. It has to get some radiant heat influences(?). I mean, common sense.

If you remember there were a couple of strong cold fronts passed through dfw and stalled or fizzled our before they got to Houston and central Texas. Most of the summer has been pretty pleasant this summer up here until Aug. 1. I’ll take that as long as it cools off in September.

[CaptinCrunch]

Ahhhh yeaaa

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019081706/gfs_T2ma_namer_39.png

Ooooh, weather stuff, nice

[Haris]

I hate summer.

[South Texas Storms]

I hate summer.

I do too, but it's almost over! The light is starting to appear at the end of the tunnel. Longer range models are showing increasingly unsettled conditions returning for the end of August and into September. I feel like we just have a week or so left of this miserable hot and dry weather.

[bubba hotep]

Only 99F yesterday at DFW with a forecast of 101F. The GFS, which has shown a significant warm bias only shows a few more 100s. Heading forward, extremely warm anomalies in the NPAC have me feeling a repeat of previous winters that we have seen recently.

[CaptinCrunch]

Only 99F yesterday at DFW with a forecast of 101F. The GFS, which has shown a significant warm bias only shows a few more 100s. Heading forward, extremely warm anomalies in the NPAC have me feeling a repeat of previous winters that we have seen recently.

I expect DFW will hit the 100 mark either today or tomorrow or both, but yes the highs look to be backing down to the mid and upper 90's over the next 10 days. The average high for Sept 1st is 93, and Oct 31st is 73.

OH, and let's here it for our local Walmart's, Target's, and other types stores on getting the Halloween decor out before the start of School, good job over achivers!!

[weatherdude1108]

I'm really hoping/praying the GFS comes true, and not the ECMWF.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
404 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
Subtropical Ridge settles over the Southern Plains/Rockies area.
Thermal ridge backs away slightly enabling high temperatures to ease
off a degree or two each day, though remaining well above normal.
Similar to the last few days, the usual spots could reach Heat
Advisory levels for an hour or so today. There is less of a threat of
Heat Advisory levels on Tuesday. Slightly deeper moisture moves back
into our area allowing the seabreeze to generate isolated showers
and thunderstorms near the Coastal Plains in the afternoon hours each
day.

&&

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
The pattern mid to late week is similar to the short term and will
maintain above normal temperatures all areas and isolated showers
and thunderstorms near the Coastal Plains each afternoon. The
passage of several shortwaves across the Western States into the
Plains gradually breaks down the Ridge late week leaving a general
weakness in the pattern by next weekend. Enough consistency and
consensus has developed to bring isolated showers and thunderstorms
west to the I-35 corridor on Saturday, and most areas on Sunday.
Temperatures will remain above normal on Saturday and closer to
normal on Sunday. Just beyond this forecast, for Sunday night into
next Monday, the GFS gives some hope of more widespread showers and
thunderstorms. However, the ECMWF is much drier.

[Tejas89]

Not to start talking fall yet, but the latest climate forecast for SON has most of the lower 48 at 40%+ chance of above average temps. All of Texas except a sliver of west Texas (50%+).

Equal chances on the precip.

[weatherdude1108]

Temperatures aside, this would be a nice change from the rut.

[ColdFusion]

Pretty hot outside for 7PM, but those 478 mph wind gusts take the edge off.

[TarrantWx]

Pretty hot outside for 7PM, but those 478 mph wind gusts take the edge off.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/WvwfwJZ/dallas.png [/url]

I've noticed that Addison has these false extreme wind measurements pretty regularly. They really need to fix what's going on there.

[gpsnowman]

Pretty hot outside for 7PM, but those 478 mph wind gusts take the edge off.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/WvwfwJZ/dallas.png [/url]

That made me laugh. It was a little breezy earlier but I didn't realize it was that windy.

[Ntxw]

There is now ensemble support as well as both GEFS and EPS of a season changing front at the end of the month (1.5 weeks). Stepping stone to Fall? It would be the first signal to move threads!

[weatherdude1108]

Pretty hot outside for 7PM, but those 478 mph wind gusts take the edge off.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/WvwfwJZ/dallas.png [/url]

Reminds me of the KXAN app that said it was going to be a LOW of 798 degrees on Aug 24th.

[bubba hotep]

That is a powerful 5-day for the GEFS in August!

[Brent]

big front coming south on the 240 hour Euro

Come to papa

[bubba hotep]

big front coming south on the 240 hour Euro

Come to papa

https://i.ibb.co/WzYyJPn/ecmwf-T850a-us-11.png

It's D10 but I like how there is more ridging across the NE and not a giant Great Lakes Low like last winter. If we can get that look this winter then the cold will dive more down the Rockies into the Southern Plains vs bleeding off to our NE. Just say No to Glancing Blows of Cold in Winter '19/20!

[SoupBone]

There is now ensemble support as well as both GEFS and EPS of a season changing front at the end of the month (1.5 weeks). Stepping stone to Fall? It would be the first signal to move threads!

https://i.imgur.com/qrPjI1C.png

Man that would be great. And that could also signal Texas beginning to shut its doors for hurricanes. If this ends up being a back-loaded season, I hope we keep getting fronts.

[Cpv17]

The 12z GFS has me down for 3” over the next 384 hours. Yes please! Need this burn ban to be lifted already.

[weatherdude1108]

I am so ready! Can't ever come soon enough.