Caribbean - Central America Weather

[knotimpaired]

Vieques weather from our Weatherhawk system here on the north coast of Vieques where we live.

http://www.playacofi.com/weather/

[cycloneye]

Vieques weather from our Weatherhawk system here on the north coast of Vieques where we live.

http://www.playacofi.com/weather/

Welcome aboard my friend in Vieques to our tent.

[knotimpaired]

Thank you.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251851
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST SAT JUL 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS MOVED FROM CULEBRA VIEQUES AREA WEST
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE ISLAND DURING THE LATE
MORNING BUT BY AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE INTERIOR FROM VILLALBA WEST TO
SAN GERMAN AND NORTHWEST FROM YAUCO TO AGUADA. ALTHOUGH MORNING
SOUNDING STILL REFLECTED A DRY AIR IT WAS NOT AS DRY AS THE LAST
TWO PREVIOUS RUNS. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWED SOMEWHAT MOIST AIR AS
PUERTO RICO LIES ALONG BASE OF TUTT TROUGH.

ONCE THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION DRIFTS OFFSHORE ACROSS THE MONA
PASSAGE AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AND DISSIPATES...WEST HALF OF PR
SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. THE EAST HALF TONIGHT SHOULD
ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWERS. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY DRY THRU
MID AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT SUBSIDENT AIR PREVAILS AHEAD OF NEXT
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE. GFS SHOWS MOISTURE ARRIVING INTO LOCAL AREA
WITH THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WEATHER WHICH WAS LOCATED BETWEEN 50W-54W
FROM 10N-15N. HIGHEST MOISTURE VALUES SHOULD STAY SOUTH OVER CARIB
WATERS. THIS WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE SHOWERS A LITTLE BIT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MADE REFERENCE TO STRONG 700 MB WINDS DEPICTED
BY NAM AND GFS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT INITIALLY ACROSS CARIB WATERS
AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS ATLANTIC/CARIB. AT 1000
MB LATEST RUNS SHOW 25 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING.

AFTER WEDNESDAY DRIER AIR MOVES WEST ACROSS PR/USVI AND REMAINS THRU
THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST AIR AND DRIES UP
AGAIN NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR AND
AROUND TJMZ THROUGH 25/2100Z DUE TO SEABREEZE-INDUCED CEILINGS.
AFTERWARDS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER RELATED FLYING HAZARDS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY
TUESDAY...WITH WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET IN MANY
OUTER WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS
BEFORE RELAXING. NAM BRINGS 25 KTS INTO CARIB WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

[cycloneye]

Good morning fellow Caribbean friends.Less haze for today and some showers is the story.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 261030
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
630 AM AST SUN JUL 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST A
WEAK TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND DISSIPATE ON
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
WEEK...THEN TROUGHINESS WILL DIG BACK FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND SHIFT WEST NEXT WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BUILD
WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL CROSS INTO THE CARIBBEAN
EARLY IN THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK WAVE NEAR 56 WEST WILL CROSS THROUGH THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LONG STRETCH
OF AIR LIGHTLY LADENED WITH SAHARAN DUST. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
WAVES APPEARS TO DELAY UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS FORMED IN MOIST AIR THAT DROPPED IN FROM THE
NORTH PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO A TUTT THAT HAS BEEN JUST NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SHOWERS WILL CLEAR OUT AS A DRY
SLOT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE ENTERS THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL NOT
PRECLUDE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST PART OF PUERTO RICO. MOISTURE
THEN INCREASES LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
TONIGHT IN PUERTO RICO FOR AN INCREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT
WILL LIKELY LAST UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. SINCE THIS IS NOT A
PARTICULARLY VIGOROUS WAVE...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SCATTERED AND MODERATE. DRYER WEATHER BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT
HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO DRIVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO EACH DAY WITH EAST SOUTHEAST OR EAST WINDS
DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THE BEST CONVECTION FORMS. THESE SHOWERS
COULD GIVE THOSE AREAS 1 TO 2 INCHES EACH DAY...BUT MUCH LESS WILL
FALL ELSEWHERE AND FEW SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THIS TIME. SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT IF CURRENT MODELS ARE TRUE. NO SIGNIFICANT EVENTS ARE BEING
INDICATED BY THE MODELS AT THIS TIME. NO STRONG TROPICAL WAVES NOR
TROPICAL CYCLONES APPEAR LIKELY TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY AUGUST FOURTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL LOCAL TAF
SITES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER RELATED FLYING HAZARDS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHOWERS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY
FROM 26/15Z TO 27/02Z OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
OVER OUTER WATERS. WATERS EAST OF THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE
ALSO LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SEAS OF 7 FEET AT THAT TIME.

[cycloneye]

There is a interesting paragrafh almost at the end of discussion about the tropics.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
151 PM AST SUN JUL 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...
AS AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AND LIMITED MOISTURE AS PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INHIBITS SHOWER ACTIVITY
TODAY...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS...SUFFICIENT PRECIPITABLE WATER IS BEING PULLED NORTHWARD
FROM THE ITCZ IN RESPONSE TO THE TUTT LIFTING NORTH AS PER MIMIC TPW
TECHNIQUES. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BE IN PLACE FOR ENHANCED
AREAL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE ISLANDS ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS WEAK FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
ENHANCEMENT IN PRECIPITATION AS WAS THE CASE LAST MONDAY AS
ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE INHIBITS DEEP
CONVECTION. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT AREAL COVERAGE TO SCATTERED OVER
MOST OF THE ISLANDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF
THE PUERTO RICAN MAINLAND WHERE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER ISOLATED
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM.

BY TUESDAY AND BEYOND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...EXPECT A
RETURN TO THE TYPICAL MESOSCALE-DRIVEN NOCTURNAL/DIURNAL PATTERN
DOMINATING THE WEATHER REGIME. THIS INCLUDES MOSTLY BRIEF ISOLATED
PASSING OVERNIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND WINDWARD COAST
OF PUERTO RICO ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTING IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG SEABREEZE-INDUCED
FRONTS AND CONVERGENCE ZONES AROUND THE WESTERN TOPOGRAPHY OF THE
PUERTO RICAN MAINLAND. MINIMUM/MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT AT
MEX MOS GFS LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE.

IN THE TROPICS...THE ITCZ DEPICTED ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF 10N EAST
OF THE AREA CONTAINS SEVERAL WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW. AS
THE TUTT LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTH AND THE DEEP TROUGHS ACROSS THE
UNITED STATES MAINLAND RELAX...UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. CURRENT TJSJ 26/1200Z
RAOB...AS WELL AS OTHER PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS...SHOW VERY WEAK AND
VARIABLE WIND PROFILES STRAIGHT THROUGH THE COLUMN. HOWEVER...NO
SIGNS OF ANY INCREASED TROPICAL ACTIVITY HAVE BEEN SEEN AT THIS
TIME. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOW THE BULK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE WAVES SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS...HOWEVER THEY WILL
INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AS THEY APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...IT IS NOT UNTIL THE MONTH OF
AUGUST BEFORE THE ATLANTIC STARTS SEEING A SIGNIFICANT UPTICK IN
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. A SLOW START TO THE SEASON IN JUNE AND
JULY CAN BE QUITE NORMAL AS THE OCEANS CONTINUE TO WARM AND UPPER
LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THOUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
SCATTERED PASSING SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH
ABOUT 23Z.

[cycloneye]

A weak wave is moving thru the Eastern Caribbean with some scattered showers but nothing more.

[cycloneye]

Good morning fellow Caribbean friends.Some showers today as a weak wave moves thru.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
316 AM AST MON JUL 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
AND ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS LATER TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TODAY INCREASING THE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS AND GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
THE TROPICAL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA LATER
TONIGHT.

A TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN...WITH ONLY DIURNAL INDUCED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR
PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON...IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE FA
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EVENTS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THOUGH 18Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SCATTERED PASSING
SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO (TJMZ) 18-22Z.


&&

.MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE STARTING LATER TODAY AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE...THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAD BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE...CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC OFF SHORE
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

[Gustywind]

Hi Luis tkanks for posting all these updating infos, i'm glad to see that
000
AWCA82 TJSJ 270821
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 AM AST MON JUL 27 2009

PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. IT WAS BREEZY...WITH A GUSTY EAST WIND
OF 15 TO 20 MPH.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS MORNING.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT IN GENERAL A
QUIET MORNING IS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES. THE WIND WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE
MOVING WEST TODAY... PASSING ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS... SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 13
TO 21 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FEET. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST 0F THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
COASTAL WATERS AND ALL OF THE LOCAL PASSAGES.

$$

[Gustywind]

All seems quiet, let's enjoy it...

[cycloneye]

We have to start to watch what is going on to our east as August gets closer.

2 PM Discussion from TPC:

A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS FROM A 1010
MB LOW NEAR 18N21W TO 20N19W TO THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
22N16W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE SURFACE LOW
AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE LIKELY THE NORTHERN VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS LIKELY MOVED OFF THE W
COAST OF AFRICA...CURRENTLY ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 15N19W TO 8N17W. THIS SURFACE
TROUGH EMBEDDED IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT
FROM CIMSS...AND RECENTLY SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC
MOTION OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR THIS TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL
LIKELY BE ANALYZED AS A TROPICAL WAVE ONCE ADDITIONAL DATA
SUGGESTS ITS PRESENCE AS A TROPICAL WAVE.

$$
COHEN

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[cycloneye]

Interesting paragraph about the tropics from the San Juan afternoons discussion.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 271805
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
205 PM AST MON JUL 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS AND PUSH WEST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS IT DOES SO...LOOK FOR DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR TO BE USHERED INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...EXPECT ONLY
NOCTURNAL WINDWARD-FACING SHORES TO BE AFFECTED BY BRIEF PASSING
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...EXPECT A RETURN
TO THE TYPICAL MESOSCALE-DRIVEN NOCTURNAL/DIURNAL PATTERN DOMINATING
THE WEATHER REGIME. HPC QPF GUIDANCE SHOWS A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A LACK OF MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. AS SUCH...EXPECT MOSTLY BRIEF ISOLATED PASSING
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND WINDWARD COAST OF
PUERTO RICO ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ERUPTING IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG SEABREEZE-INDUCED FRONTS AND
CONVERGENCE ZONES AROUND THE WESTERN TOPOGRAPHY OF THE PUERTO RICAN
MAINLAND. MINIMUM/MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT AT MEX MOS GFS
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE.

IN THE TROPICS...THE ITCZ DEPICTED ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF 10N IN
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN CONTAINS TWO DISCERNIBLE WAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW. AS WE APPROACH A MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY ACTIVE
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERIOD...UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY
MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
AND WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC AS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES HAVE
RELAXED. CURRENT TJSJ 27/1200Z RAOB...AS WELL AS OTHER PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS...SHOW FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND PROFILES STRAIGHT
THROUGH THE COLUMN. CONVERSELY...THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/
CONTINUES TO HINT AT SUPPRESSED LIFT AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFLUENCE FOR AT LEAST TWO MORE WEEKS ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. MOREOVER...THE LATEST 24-MONTH RUNNING TROPICAL CYCLONE
ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY /ACE/ INDEX FOR THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
SHOWS THE LOWEST SUMS IN NEARLY 30 YEARS. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT
WHILE THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT MAY ALLOW FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF...THE OVERALL TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT HAS PRECLUDED
ONE FROM ACTUALLY FORMING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. EAST WINDS
AVERAGING 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS
ALONG COASTAL AREAS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL NOW THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[Gustywind]

Numerous strong showers have fallen here there's 2 hours ago. Weather is grey, chilly, sad and another round of showers is trying to approach my area. Things have calm down right now ..The atmosphere appears somewhat moist and a bit unstable...

[Gustywind]

Interesting paragraph about the tropics from the San Juan afternoons discussion.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 271805
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
205 PM AST MON JUL 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS AND PUSH WEST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS IT DOES SO...LOOK FOR DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR TO BE USHERED INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...EXPECT ONLY
NOCTURNAL WINDWARD-FACING SHORES TO BE AFFECTED BY BRIEF PASSING
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...EXPECT A RETURN
TO THE TYPICAL MESOSCALE-DRIVEN NOCTURNAL/DIURNAL PATTERN DOMINATING
THE WEATHER REGIME. HPC QPF GUIDANCE SHOWS A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A LACK OF MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. AS SUCH...EXPECT MOSTLY BRIEF ISOLATED PASSING
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND WINDWARD COAST OF
PUERTO RICO ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ERUPTING IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG SEABREEZE-INDUCED FRONTS AND
CONVERGENCE ZONES AROUND THE WESTERN TOPOGRAPHY OF THE PUERTO RICAN
MAINLAND. MINIMUM/MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT AT MEX MOS GFS
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE.

IN THE TROPICS...THE ITCZ DEPICTED ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF 10N IN
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN CONTAINS TWO DISCERNIBLE WAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW. AS WE APPROACH A MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY ACTIVE
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERIOD...UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY
MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
AND WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC AS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES HAVE
RELAXED. CURRENT TJSJ 27/1200Z RAOB...AS WELL AS OTHER PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS...SHOW FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND PROFILES STRAIGHT
THROUGH THE COLUMN. CONVERSELY...THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/
CONTINUES TO HINT AT SUPPRESSED LIFT AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFLUENCE FOR AT LEAST TWO MORE WEEKS ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. MOREOVER...THE LATEST 24-MONTH RUNNING TROPICAL CYCLONE
ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY /ACE/ INDEX FOR THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
SHOWS THE LOWEST SUMS IN NEARLY 30 YEARS. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT
WHILE THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT MAY ALLOW FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF...THE OVERALL TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT HAS PRECLUDED
ONE FROM ACTUALLY FORMING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. EAST WINDS
AVERAGING 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS
ALONG COASTAL AREAS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL NOW THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

You're right Cycloneye very informative paragrah, we should look carefully all the twaves coming and emerging from Africa as conditions appears to be much more conducive during the next couple of weeks...

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 271951
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
351 PM AST MON JUL 27 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTHEAST OF SAINT CROIX. NO RAINFALL DETECTED
OVER LAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS BREEZY AND GUSTY MAINLY
ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...IS STAYING WELL SOUTH OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE DISCUSSION AREA
TONIGHT...WHILE DRY AIR AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOW
BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TRAILING THE
WAVE...WILL BE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS EARLY THIS
EVENING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS.

AFTERWARD...EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMER NIGHT ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH AN EAST WIND FLOW AVERAGING 10 TO 20
MPH AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S.

RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA ON THURSDAY.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 13
TO 21 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 7 FEET. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS ALL LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS
AND ALL LOCAL PASSAGES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT MAINLY FOR THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OTHER LOCAL COASTAL
AREAS WILL BE UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LATER TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.
$$

[msbee]

It's very windy here. wind from the east at 18 MPH with gusts up to 31 mph.
no rain though

Thanks Luis for posting all the PR discussions. They are very informative.
Barbara

[cycloneye]

Here are the two waves that are east of the islands.

000
AXNT20 KNHC 272350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG 18W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR
20 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM
CIMSS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. AN
UNRELATED 1010 MB LOW HAPPENS TO BE W OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
18N22W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OR SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED
ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS.
ALSO...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC MOTION OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR THIS WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 42W-45W.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[caribsue]

Hello all from Barbados... which has not been so sunny. We are hoping for sunshine on Kadooment (carnival) day. Looks as though we might get a bit of rain though to cool things down. Today has been very windy with some showers..... nice relief from the heat, although I guess people who pay loads of money to come here on holiday for some sun aren't too happy. Looks as though the next week or so should be interesting with the coming waves.

Happy Crop Over to all my Bajan friends here

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 280251 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1051 PM AST MON JUL 27 2009

.UPDATE...THERE WILL BE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR...MAINLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES...THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND DID NOT SEND A ZFP UPDATE. FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS...MADE A COUPLE OF MINOR ALTERATIONS TO THE
PREVIOUS CWF...MAINLY TO THE SYNOPSIS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN OFF SHORE WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE OVERNIGHT AND
THERE IS A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR MOST OF THE REMAINING
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
PASSING SHRA.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to our fellow Caribbean friends.As Barbara said yesterday about the windy conditions,its windy here also.A few isolates showers for today here.Watching to our east to those waves out there.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 280837
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
437 AM AST TUE JUL 28 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY. BEHIND THIS FEATURE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL PATCHES OF MOISTURE CONTINUED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW AFFECTING THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MORE OF THESE SHOWERS COULD MOVE ON SHORE
AND AFFECT THE EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH SUNRISE. NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF OUR
LOCAL FORECAST AREA INCREASING THE CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. EAST
WINDS AVERAGING 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS
ALONG COASTAL AREAS 12Z-00Z.

&&

.MARINE...CHOPPY SEAS CONTINUE TO PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TODAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM MODERATE TO FRESH WITH
STRONGER GUSTS. MODELS SUGGEST A SLIGHT WIND INCREASE FOR TOMORROW
THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND EXTENDED
FOR THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN OFF SHORE WATERS AND THE ANEGADA
PASSAGE. CHOPPY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.