Florida Weather

[Sanibel]

Upper 30's predicted at night here Thursday. Here it comes!

[psyclone]

where are you seeing that? NWS has lows in the low 50's around Ft Myers Thursday night.

[FireRat]

February can be such a grabbag

Looks like things are trending colder, the extended forecast on Wunderground for my zip code shows it dropping to 42 Friday night after a high of 67...and that's after lows near 50 from tomorrow onwards, brrr. Actual lows around here often dip lower than forecast, so this will be something interesting to watch, now that these forecasts are finally out of lala land.

Thanks for all the graphics btw gatorcane!

[gatorcane]

GEM is really trending colder. Do note the models are still struggling with when the brunt of the cold penetrates the FL peninsula. That could be a sign it's really not getting as cold as they say due to lack of consistency.

Notice the GFS and GEM pushed back the coldest temps until Sun. night now. ECMWF shows nothing this cold so I am a bit skeptical still:

[psyclone]

The GEM is a clown map

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like after possibly experiencing the coldest temperatures so far this season the end of this week and this weekend, the pattern will finally start to break down and ridging will slowly return which IMO could result in an above average end of the month.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z ECMWF has trended much colder with it's 850MB temps and a little farther south. Here we are at 144 hours and 168 hours where the core of the arctic air just missing peninsula Florida to the NE as it dives off the SE United States coastline. Just a couple of more shifts south like this run and we could be looking at a deep and damaging freezing to peninsula Florida:

[asd123]

The 12Z ECMWF has trended much colder with it's 850MB temps and a little farther south. Here we are at 144 hours and 168 hours where the core of the air just misses peninsula Florida to the NE as it dives off the SE United States coastline. Just a couple of more shifts south like this run and we could be looking at a deep and damaging freezing to peninsula Florida:

http://i62.tinypic.com/2e6fnv9.png

http://i59.tinypic.com/xcpqhe.png

The map does show -850mb temps for cfla nward on Sunday. But what the map doesn't show is 2m temps. On Tropical Tidbits 850 temps for 12z Monday are slightly above freezing for cfla. However due to temperature inversion (radiational cooling?), 2m temps will be in the mid 20s. On Weatherbell, it shows back to back freezes for cfla Saturday and Sunday night with a potential hard and damaging freeze Sunday night. Wunderground has free ECMWF 2m temp maps out to 180 hours (7 degree range of temps, while Weatherbell shows the temps to the nearest degree).

[gatorcane]

The 12Z ECMWF has trended much colder with it's 850MB temps and a little farther south. Here we are at 144 hours and 168 hours where the core of the air just misses peninsula Florida to the NE as it dives off the SE United States coastline. Just a couple of more shifts south like this run and we could be looking at a deep and damaging freezing to peninsula Florida:

http://i62.tinypic.com/2e6fnv9.png

http://i59.tinypic.com/xcpqhe.png

The map does show -850mb temps for cfla nward on Sunday. But what the map doesn't show is 2m temps. On Tropical Tidbits 850 temps for 12z Monday are slightly above freezing for cfla. However due to temperature inversion (radiational cooling?), 2m temps will be in the mid 20s. On Weatherbell, it shows back to back freezes for cfla Saturday and Sunday night with a potential hard and damaging freeze Sunday night. Wunderground has free ECMWF 2m temp maps out to 180 hours (7 degree range of temps, while Weatherbell shows the temps to the nearest degree).

Do you need a username/password for Weatherbell? I can't access the ECMWF 2m temps. Can you post some images? If the ECMWF is showing a freeze now for Central Florida that is certainly colder than the previous run and closer to the GFS. So maybe the GFS is not out to lunch with this freeze threat for the peninsula.

[asd123]

The 12Z ECMWF has trended much colder with it's 850MB temps and a little farther south. Here we are at 144 hours and 168 hours where the core of the air just misses peninsula Florida to the NE as it dives off the SE United States coastline. Just a couple of more shifts south like this run and we could be looking at a deep and damaging freezing to peninsula Florida:

http://i62.tinypic.com/2e6fnv9.png

http://i59.tinypic.com/xcpqhe.png

The map does show -850mb temps for cfla nward on Sunday. But what the map doesn't show is 2m temps. On Tropical Tidbits 850 temps for 12z Monday are slightly above freezing for cfla. However due to temperature inversion (radiational cooling?), 2m temps will be in the mid 20s. On Weatherbell, it shows back to back freezes for cfla Saturday and Sunday night with a potential hard and damaging freeze Sunday night. Wunderground has free ECMWF 2m temp maps out to 180 hours (7 degree range of temps, while Weatherbell shows the temps to the nearest degree).

Do you need a username/password for Weatherbell? I can't access the ECMWF 2m temps. Can you post some images? If the ECMWF is showing a freeze now for Central Florida that is certainly colder than the previous run and closer to the GFS.

And Yes, the Euro has trended towards the GFS for Saturday and Sunday nights.

It's a subscription website, I am not allowed to post those images. But I can post Wunderground, which shows the temps scale to the nearest 7th or 8th degree.
Just go to http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ Uncheck radar and weather stations box to clear up clutter. Zoom out map if needed, scroll down and go to model data. Check model data box, and click on the tool symbol next to model data. Select ECMWF, click under map type to select 2m temp. Scroll on time scale to appropriate hour.
Note that sometimes there might be gaps in data (hour168), but hey free is free.

Here is a sample:
Image Courtesy of Wunderground:

[gatorcane]

Yeah thanks it worked

Going to be an interesting next few days of watching these models as this could be some of the coldest temperatures peninsula Florida has seen in quite sometime.

[asd123]

Yeah thanks it worked

Going to be an interesting next few days of watching these models as this could be some of the coldest temperatures peninsula Florida has seen in quite sometime.

While you're at it, I encourage you to get a Weatherbell subscription, at least for the winter months. (I have one, only for the winter months). Weatherbell has 2m min temps which shows a true low temp. 12z (7am) temp can still drop a little.

[gatorcane]

NWS Miami snippet from a discussion just released:

WITH THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH STUCK AND REINFORCED BY NUMEROUS
CLIPPERS THIS LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS LIKELY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA TO END THE FORECAST.
BOTH THE NAEFS/GEFS ARE ALMOST 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
FOR SURFACE TEMPS NEAR 12Z SATURDAY. AS USUAL THE MEX MOS NUMBERS
ARE THE COLDEST OF THE ENTIRE GUIDANCE SUITE, WITH THE ECMWF MOS
WARMER. MUCH TOO EARLY TO LATCH ON TO ONE EXTREME RUN OF THE
OPERATIONAL GFS, ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN HAS POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY IF
A DECENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AS
THE GFS DEPICTS FOR 12Z SATURDAY. FOR NOW, WILL FOLLOW LOCAL BLENDS
WHICH ARE A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE MEDIAN OF THE GUIDANCE TEMPS. AT
THE VERY LEAST, MAX T IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S LOOK POSSIBLE
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA DURING AT LEAST ONE OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND DAYS.
THE LAKE REGION AND THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR COULD FALL INTO THE 30S
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY MORNING. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT NEITHER THE NAO
OR PNA ARE IN A FAVORABLE PHASE FOR THIS EVENT.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[northjaxpro]

0z GFS trended even colder for the weekend. It has low temps in the low 30s Friday morning all the way down to parts of Orlando and upper 20s all the way down to Orlando for Sunday morning. So is the GFS is crack? I guess we will see.
In the other hand the Euro has not been that aggressive with the upcoming Arctic blast, at least with the first wave coming through Thursday night. It has the coldest morning Saturday morning with temps in the mid to upper 30s across central and parts of southern FL, with lighter winds and clear skies forecasted that would mean a chance for a frosty morning. Instead of upper 20s for Sunday morning it shows lows in the low to mid 40s for Orlando but staying very chilly on the day Sunday. The Euro shows a potential light freezing event for next Monday morning but that's beyond its 168hr forecast which a lot could still change.

I am still sticking by my inclination that temps will go back sllightly to the warmer solution, similar to what EURO was indicating. Now, I could be wrong. I think it will be chilly, but I don't expect the freeze line to get no farther south than Ocala-Leesburg at the very most. I just don't see extreme cold aiming at the peninsula YET. Orlando and vicinities along the I-$ corridor I think will get no colder than the mid 30s at best, more like near 40 degrees. The coldest of that arctic blast will stay well north of the peninsula and I think the cold air mass will moderate significantly by the time it arrives to the Florida peninsula this weekend. I think my region will get a light freeze (30-32 degrees) on Saturday morning. A few pockets of the colder interior spots of North Florida may see the upper 20s.

GFS is indicating the Canadian HIGH to sink south to get closer to the peninsula this weekend, and that may be why the GFS is showing a colder bias. If that happens, winds would go light to calm and that situation would create a radiational cooling event for many, and that could cause temps to be a bit colder. We will have to see how that transpires with time.

Also, it was interesting to see how the Miami mets mentioned the teleconnections concerning the NAO and PNA. Yeah, I tell you, we here in state of Florida continues to live a charmed life with weather extremes. We would be looking potentially at some extreme cold air with this pattern currently if the NAO was negative. Now, this could change, and if EURO shows a trend of siding more with the GFS over the next few runs, then we may be in for some pretty cold

[psyclone]

NWS has trended down with temps in my neck of the woods with a Friday high of just 54. the coldest low at this point is Sunday night with 36. that's colder than we've been the entire winter.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS not budging on a freeze for Central Florida with threats Thu. night, Sat., and Sun nights. If this continues, expect NWS to lower temps for all 4 nights across Central Florida.

[northjaxpro]

Well, the NWS is jumping onboard at the moment with the GFS. They are calling for an arctic front to move through late Saturday into Sunday across North Florida. 850mb temps are down to -15 Celsius down to about the Florida-Georgia border, which is very cold any time of the winter season. NWS is projecting max temps only in the mid 40s for Jax on Sunday. If this verifies, we may be seeing some of the coldest weather, if not the coldest weather coming into the region late this weekend. A big change from last night's runs and even earlier today. Still five days away, and lots can still change. But, given the latest changes, Mother Nature may gives us a good solid shot of cold to the state after all.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS Freeze threat for 3 nights:

Thu night

Sat night:

Sun night:


Position of surface high for Sun night freeze. That spells trouble for sure, could lead to light winds and good radiational cooling conditions:

[psyclone]

32 Sunday night for Plant City. I don't think they've had to turn on the sprinklers (to protect the strawberries) this entire season. Looks like they may need to do it possibly on multiple nights.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, psyclone, for the first time this season, if the model runs keep trending the way they are now, Central Florida may get their first freeze of this winter season this weekend. They may get a couple as a matter of fact. Interesting week monitoring the runs. Latest GFS runs showing potential hard freeze across North Florida. BRR! GFS showing 18 degrees here in JAX on Sunday morning above on the 18Z run.