Florida Weather

[psyclone]

yeah, just a few days ago the Sunday arctic surge was supposed to be the second and more severe blast with frigid lows for Monday morning. what an absolute trainwreck these models are out more than a few days. Now we're expecting another big blast late week and while I'm inclined to believe it the sad reality is the event remains outside the timeframe for a believable forecast. It honestly feels like we're going backwards in the temp forecasting dept. And I've noticed this with temp forecasts in general this winter, not just during potential cold events. it is so unreliable going back to a 5 day forecast makes sense.

[northjaxpro]

Well, I touched on this earlier today regarding the minimums for this morning, and I will confirm that today has ended up being one of the biggest forecast busts this season, not only from the GFS of course, but to a lesser extent the EURO, but at least the EURO was still a bit warmer then GFS leading into the weekend. All week long both models were pointing for today being the coldest of this current spell, depicting only in the upper 40s(GFS) - to lower 50s(EURO) for max temps. We were no where close to that. The max temp reached 60 degrees at my locale, and just now as the winds are now veering to the northeast, we are seeing temps drop off a bit, now currently 53.7 degrees. The front was delayed significantly before it finally moved through the Jax area around 9 a.m. this morning. The core of the coldest air is well north of the peninsula as the 1040mb Arctic HP is centered up over the Great Lakes region currently. That arctic air air will wedge down the Lee of the Appalachians as the HP moves southeast toward the Mid Atlantic and stay well north of us. No freezes expected here in Jax by tomorrow morning as the flow is onshore and high clouds will be streaming in across the area in advance of the developing storm system, which will move across the Deep South region Monday through Tuesday.

The wind flow will come around to eventually southerly on Monday as the latest models are picking up the speed of the Low pressure area, now moving it through the Deep South and off the coast of the Carolinas by late Monday/early Tuesday time frame. A cold front trailing from the storm system is now indicated to move through North Florida early on Tuesday morning. Decent rain chances and possible thunderstorms across North Florida, especially late on Monday into Monday evening. The front will then move down through the rest of the Florida peninsula by late Tuesday.

Then, as NDG alluded to above, we will have one last cold spell coming in for the Wednesday - Friday period. As I have alluded to in recent days, I have expected the models to trend back to being a bit colder for this particular time frame and they are indeed starting to do that. Although the core of the coldest air will remain just north of us across New England and the Mid-Atlantic region later this week, the Arctic High for the upcoming cold spell will drop down into the TN Valley region, and closer to the Deep South later this week. Plus, with a potential fresh snowpack across the TN Valley region and over the Mid-Atlantic with this week's storm system, this may help to keep the arctic airmass from moderating very quickly.

Right now, the potential for hard freezes across the Big Bend area and Suwannee River Valley regions is there for both Thursday and Friday mornings, while at the moment upper 20s are possible across the Jax metro area on Thursday morning, but this could change. The 12Z Euro from earlier today really showed a very impressive deep upper air trough bringing Siberian air right down into the Mid Atlantic. Temperature profiles on the 12Z Euro are showing temps into possibly the single digits all the way down into NC and the Southern Appalachians. I can see that possibly materializing if the snowpack materializes in the Mid -Atlantic region. But, it it is not lost on me at all about the way the models have been this season, it seems like a wild tease for sure, like what happened here today with the busts with both the low and max temps.

[ronjon]

NorthJAX, temps are now forecast for 27 deg on Thursday morning for us in Hernando County just north of Tampa. This is shaping up to be the coldest night of the winter so far.

Form NWS Tampa Bay AFD today:

LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
50S AND 60S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEEKEND SHOULD SEE A WARMING
TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. OVERALL...THIS COLD SNAP CURRENTLY PROJECTS TO BE THE
COLDEST OF THE YEAR SO FAR WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NATURE COAST AND INLAND AREAS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
MODEL TRENDS AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES...GLOBAL GUIDANCE DIFFERS VERY
LITTLE ON THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES GRANTING INCREASING CONFIDENCE
ON THE SOLUTION THOUGH TIMING CAN BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR
IN ADVANCE

[northjaxpro]

Well, I am not surprised by that with the current trends, especially what the EURO indicated earlier today. Will watch it carefully, but the potential is there for the next cold spell top be the coldest of the winter season for the reasons I have touched on in my earler post on this page.

[psyclone]

it stands a good chance to be the coldest of the year. my point and click temp is 36. one of the reasons this could be the coldest of the year is that every other cold forecast this winter has busted...that's the irony. As long as it doesn't freeze I don't care. And it rebounds quickly so that's good.

[NDG]

I don't know about Wednesday-Friday time frame potentially being the coldest for the year, maybe as cold as previous times this winter so far. My reason, high pressure center will stay north of the Peninsula, the winds will not go calm during the night in most spots, the usual colder areas like the Nature Coast will see below freezing temps, nothing new.

[northjaxpro]

No doubt NDG, the orientation of the Arctic High later this week will remain north of us as has been the case for most of this winter. That situation will probably spare most areas from I-4 corridor and south a freeze. Hard freeze potential for areas of North Florida late this week however as discussed earlier.

It has been a freeze-free winter down in the central peninsula. If you all in Central Florida can get through this upcoming week without experiencing a freeze, the odds will really be in your favor the rest of the way.. That is, you can just about ring the bell that you would be in the all clear for the winter. Now, barring the peninsula getting a drastic and unsual cold snap in March, which can happen at times, but I don't anticipate happening as those occurances percentage wise are low for Central Florida to get freezes after March 1.

[FireRat]

Monster temperature gradient down here tonight thanks to light onshore flow!
Most locations along the immediate coast of Palm Beach, Broward and Dade are in the upper 60s, even 70 at Miami Beach, while the western suburbs are chilling in the low to mid 50s. Outside in my area it's 52, That's a 17 degree difference just 15 miles from the beach. Some parts of the Everglades nearby the western suburbs are in the mid 40s!

All this is obtained from wunderground and weatherbug.

It's amazing to see the microclimates that we have here, often hundreds of miles are needed for a 15 to 20 degree gradient and yet here you can drive through it in half an hour!

[ronjon]

NWS Tampa Bay still bullish on freeze.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT
EXITING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING
INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CLEAR SKIES AND DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GO FROM CHILLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING TO FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING COULD BE
THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PENINSULA OF
FLORIDA. WE ARE STILL QUITE FAR OUT IN TIME TO BE TOO CONFIDENT IN A
FREEZE FOR PORTIONS OF TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD...BUT THINGS CONTINUE TO
TREND IN THAT DIRECTION.

[gatorcane]

06Z GFS has trended a little colder with the freeze line intruding into the Tampa Bay area now - 34F in Ft. Myers . The 00Z ECMWF shows the 850MB freeze line passing through Central Florida again - look how far south the East Atlantic coast it makes it this run. The key is going to be the wind situation and how far south the surface high gets. If winds go light to calm and the vector sets up out of the N or NNE direction even if the winds or light, a freeze could certainly be possible across West-Central Florida:

[psyclone]

I'm thinking they're correct this time...the question is where does the freeze line stop...I wouldn't be surprised if KTPA hits freezing and KPIE does not.

[Sanibel]

71* here right now. 10* in New York City.


TWC showing 36* for Thursday night. (That's cold)

[gatorcane]

I'm thinking they're correct this time...the question is where does the freeze line stop...I wouldn't be surprised if KTPA hits freezing and KPIE does not.

Quite possibly. The 12Z GFS and GEFS runs are a repeat of the 06Z runs with the freeze line invading Hillsborough county and some of metro Tampa away from the bay. KPIE will likely see some modifying due to the fact there is water to the north. So for events like these KPIE is generally a couple degrees warmer than places further north in Pinellas such as where you live in Palm Harbor as drainage flow can sometimes make it down into Northern Pinellas with no water modification due to the geography of the coast and the N to NNE light wind vector. Microclimates kick-in big time especially further to the south across Southern Pinellas / St. Petersburg with the bay influence where often they escape freezes like this and can be significantly warmer than Tampa just a short drive up I-275 and across the bay.

[psyclone]

I'm thinking a light freeze is likely east of the bay southward to interior southwest fl. it is amazing how cold portions of eastern charlotte and all of glades/highlands/Desoto/hardee counties can get. colder than polk county to the north. Far western pasco and Pinellas probably escape unscathed... and a hard freeze looks like a good bet from the cold spots of eastern pasco and points north. should that pan out that would be the coldest of this season.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF 850MB temps shows the freeze line extending into Tampa Bay. Close call for Central Florida but this indeed looks like the coldest air of the season though the core of this arctic air appears to scoot by to the north sparing Central Florida from a hard freeze, at least that is they way it looks now.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF 2M temps at 96 hours - has trended a little colder this run for Florida. That looks like a freeze even south of I-4 and into the Tampa Bay area including Northern Pinellas (east of US 19). So psyclone, could be a close call for you up in Northern Pinellas. Clearwater/St. Pete looks to be spared this run:



Zoomed in on Tampa Bay area:

[SFLcane]

We shall see...

[gatorcane]

it's been a while since we have seen 30s for windchills across SE Florida. GFS may not be too out to lunch as the ECMWF has trended colder with the Thu. night Florida freeze. In fact the GFS now looks a tad warmer.

[SFLcane]

it's been a while since we have seen 30s for windchills across SE Florida. GFS may not be too out to lunch as the ECMWF has trended colder with the Thu. night Florida freeze. In fact the GFS now looks a tad warmer.

[SFLcane]

Euro has 38-40 for metro areas South Florida. Windchills could be a problem.