Texas Summer 2017

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS has a bullseye of over a foot of rain over DFW through 288 hours

Looks like a good bit falls Sunday/Monday, I don't come back from Seattle til Monday Night but it has more rain beyond that and constant fronts lol.

Not too far off from the 12z Euro, it had 5-8" across DFW with highest amounts north of I20. It had 10"+ up near the Red River. Now, we saw this in the Spring with the Euro - big rain totals for the DFW area but it almost always backed off when it got under 5 days. Did the upgrade fix that issue or will we see it again as we move into the wetter months?

[Ntxw]

Wrong or right heck for August we'll even take an inch, no less a foot. So it only has to be slightly right to be considered a win! I'm still befuddled this is actually happening. I certainly hope it is a sign for winter and August has a legit shot to finally end the above normal streak.


It could be worse as stated many times. Even you southern half of Texas folks should feel optimistic. This is the time of year it should probably be dry and hot with no chances of rain, the fact that there is a chance is in itself a miracle! This long duration cool spell just does not happen to start August..if ever...

Edit: Someone might want to check the start of August 1971

[Ntxw]

Also for DFW watch tomorrow closely. 88F might be optimistic if some guidance is right, it might rain during peak heating so don't be surprised if low 80s ends up being the case.

Record lowest max temps for the next 3 days at DFW are

78
84
84

[South Texas Storms]

Wrong or right heck for August we'll even take an inch, no less a foot. So it only has to be slightly right to be considered a win! I'm still befuddled this is actually happening. I certainly hope it is a sign for winter and August has a legit shot to finally end the above normal streak.


It could be worse as stated many times. Even you southern half of Texas folks should feel optimistic. This is the time of year it should probably be dry and hot with no chances of rain, the fact that there is a chance is in itself a miracle! This long duration cool spell just does not happen to start August..if ever...

Edit: Someone might want to check the start of August 1971

Yep, we're hopeful that DFW doesn't hog all the rain again. Please share some with us in south and central Texas this time...we need it more than yall!

But yes, any rain, especially in August, is always much appreciated. Bring it on!

[Brent]

Also for DFW watch tomorrow closely. 88F might be optimistic if some guidance is right, it might rain during peak heating so don't be surprised if low 80s ends up being the case.

Record lowest max temps for the next 3 days at DFW are

78
84
84

3km NAM looks like DFW struggles to hit 80... most of the rain does move out in the afternoon though

[TheProfessor]

Now in the forums I go to when I head back to school, whenever an op model run shows an insane amount of snow(one time the GFS main showed 40 inches of snow in Western and Central Ohio lol) Someone will make the model run their avatar. Now it's not often DFW see 8-10 inches of rain on even a model run(much less it actually happening.) So I believe this was avatar worthy, even if it doesn't pan out.

[Brent]

GFS again hinting at insane even in spring/fall rain totals Sunday/Monday between DFW and the Red River...

No sign of summer this run lol

Went from over 13" of rain on the 18z to a mere 6" this run officially at the big airport...

[srainhoutx]

Complicated and complex unsettled weather pattern shaping up across Texas including the Upper Texas Coast as a rather strong upper air disturbance located over N Texas drops South in the N to NW flow aloft colliding with deep tropical moisture that has pooled overnight with PW's in the 2 to 2.4 inch range. No real focusing mechanism to offer clues as to which locales will see the heaviest rainfall potential, but a general 1 to 2 inches looks favorable area wide with the possibility of an isolated 3 to 5 inches possible today into this evening.

On Friday will need to ramp up rainfall potential again as a cold front advances South across Texas before stalling somewhere near or just inland from the Coast. The unsettled pattern continues throughout the coming weekend as additional upper air disturbances drop S in the N to NW flow aloft along the Eastern periphery of that Heat Ridge now anchored over the West Coast States.

The guidance is suggesting another strong disturbance dropping S into our Region on Monday, but we'll need to 'fine tune' our sensible weather forecast regarding early next week and beyond. Hopefully everyone across the Lone Star State that needs the rainfall will receive it. Let's just hope it's not too much.

[Ntxw]

About 0.16" so far at the airport. Low mid 70s and raining. Still cannot believe this is August 2nd.

[Tireman4]

By the way bipolar wxman57 of winter 2013-2014 has been seen lurking. Check out his avatar in the winter thread or any tropical threads

Oh frickity frack, not this again. Ughh....Man, why can it not snow on him...?

[CaptinCrunch]

The light rain has been nice, however this forecast is a little over done.

TodayShowers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. High near 86. North northeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Tonight A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Calm wind becoming east northeast around 5 mph.

Thursday Night A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 73. East southeast wind around 5 mph.

Friday A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 91. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Friday Night A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. East southeast wind around 5 mph.

Saturday A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 92. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday Night A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. South wind around 10 mph.

Sunday A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 92. South wind around 10 mph.

Sunday Night A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75.

Monday A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 89.

Monday Night A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73.

Tuesday A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 89.

[gboudx]

From jeff for you SETX folks:

Unusually rare upper air pattern for early August will bring widespread rainfall to TX over the next several days.

Upper level ridge building into the NW US has carved out a large downstream trough across the central and eastern US. This pattern is resulting in unusually strong “cold” front for this time of year pushing into TX along with numerous disturbances moving southward down the plains and into the SE US. Old frontal zone from Sunday has washed out over the Gulf of Mexico allowing a tropical air mass to surge into the area this morning. Maximum influx of moisture has been aimed at areas east of a line from Palacios to Houston to Liberty where numerous showers and thunderstorms have developed. Leading edge of a slow moving complex of showers and thunderstorms extends from NC TX to WC LA and marks the southward advance of the lift associated with the short wave over NE TX. Expect moisture tongue to expand and spread inland over much of SE TX by late morning and with continued strong surface heating numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Lift will also become maximized over the region by late morning to early afternoon and favorable position of a rare jet stream aloft for this time of year may even add a little divergence aloft.

Main concern will be slow cell motions and very moist air mass in place with PWS pushing 2.0 inches and forecasted to rise to near 2.3 inches this afternoon. This will support a heavy to excessive rainfall threat with the stronger cells with 2-4 inch per hour rainfall rates possible. Appears some sort of convergence boundary may attempt to set up across our central tier counties (roughly near I-10) by early afternoon, but I see little evidence of any such feature at this time. A more plausible potential is for outflow boundaries to move southward from NE TX and the seabreeze to move northward from the coast and collide along/near US 59 this afternoon.

Grounds are fairly dry from the recent dry spell and high heat of late. However potential for high short duration rainfall rates may lead to rapid street flooding in urban areas. The other threat will be cloud to ground lightning….and there has been several instances of persons be struck by lightning recently across the US. As a rule of thumb, one should remain in a safe location for 30 minutes after you last hear thunder.

Unsettled pattern will remain in place for the rest of the week and into the weekend as yet another frontal boundary approaches by Saturday. Tomorrow may end up being drier than currently forecast depending on how worked over the air mass is after today’s events. Another disturbance will approach on Friday and work with the seabreeze to produce additional storms and a slow moving frontal boundary will sink into the area this weekend keeping at least 40-60% chances going.

Combination of clouds and rainfall will help keep temperatures below normal for what is typically the hottest time of year for SE TX.

[Ntxw]

Interesting rain forecast the next week or so. In the past in August when it rains, you can get very heavy downpours due to climo and high pwats. Doesn't take much forcing to dump rain when dews are consistently above 70 like this summer has been

[Brent]

77 degrees at DFW at lunchtime on August 2nd??? Heck to even see 77 at any time of day period is an accomplishment.

I'll just echo what the news anchor blurted out earlier "what month is it"

[Portastorm]

So far this alleged "rain" event has been comical here in Austin/Travis County. We got some spits and sprinkles for a little bit which I don't think amount to even 0.05" of precip. The AFD out of NWS Austin/San Antonio indicates rain chances best in North Texas and Southeast Texas. Looks like our drought will only worsen.

[Tejas89]

I guess DFW is winning again. Radar is interesting to follow... lots of boundaries swirling about.

Have we talked about the colossal rains in W. Texas the last few days? 10" plus west of Lubbock. Big totals through the Pecos/Guadalupe Mts region. Desert is in bloom in August.

[gboudx]

My area of DFW hasn't fared that well with the rain so far. A trace, maybe. But loving the clouds and cool'ish temps.

[South Texas Storms]

So far this alleged "rain" event has been comical here in Austin/Travis County. We got some spits and sprinkles for a little bit which I don't think amount to even 0.05" of precip. The AFD out of NWS Austin/San Antonio indicates rain chances best in North Texas and Southeast Texas. Looks like our drought will only worsen.

Be patient buddy. Several more chances in the next week at least. Plus, we will need to watch the BOC for possible tropical development next week. Could bring a nice surge of tropical moisture up here.

[Portastorm]

So far this alleged "rain" event has been comical here in Austin/Travis County. We got some spits and sprinkles for a little bit which I don't think amount to even 0.05" of precip. The AFD out of NWS Austin/San Antonio indicates rain chances best in North Texas and Southeast Texas. Looks like our drought will only worsen.

Be patient buddy. Several more chances in the next week at least. Plus, we will need to watch the BOC for possible tropical development next week. Could bring a nice surge of tropical moisture up here.

Yeah, yeah, yeah ... I've heard this before. Next thing you know, I'll be told that it is going to be cold and icy in Austin this coming winter.

[Ntxw]

Euro keeps it below normal still till about mid month. Summer cancel?