MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0232
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0631 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN AZ INTO SRN UT
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 111231Z - 111830Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD TODAY.
   LOCALIZED SNOW RATES APPROACHING 2-3 INCHES/HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.  ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING
   GRADIENT FLOW WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
   DRIFTING.
   
   TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN EXPANDING PRECIPITATION
   SHIELD FROM SERN CA/NRN BAJA NEWD INTO SWRN AND CNTRL AZ...IN
   ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE SRN CA COAST. THUS
   FAR...WINTER PRECIPITATION ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND PLATEAU REGION
   HAS BEEN DRIVEN BY OROGRAPHIC FORCING OWING TO RELATIVELY STRONG
   SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW /PER AREA VWPS/.  HOWEVER...WITH THE APPROACH OF
   THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...INCREASED DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED
   WITH THIS OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SNOW
   COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  MOREOVER...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A
   CONTINUATION OF EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WHICH WILL
   SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES.
   
   EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW RATES /PRIMARILY ABOVE 3000 FT MSL/ TO
   BEGIN AROUND 15Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  HOURLY SNOW
   RATES OF 1-2 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED BURSTS EXCEEDING 3
   INCHES POSSIBLE.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GJT...TWC...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...
   
   32681040 34251332 34841446 35931460 37031375 37611305
   37981234 37811074 36710926 34260915 33090908 32410941

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0233
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0754 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/FAR NW MN
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 111354Z - 111800Z
   
   BANDED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY N THIS
   MORNING ACROSS ERN ND/FAR NW MN. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 IN/HR
   ARE LIKELY.
   
   MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ALONG AN AREA OF STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS ZONE NOW STRETCHES
   INTO ERN ND/FAR NW MN CO-LOCATED WITH CURRENT SNOW BAND SEEN ON KMVX
   RADAR. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ALOFT IN ERN SD HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT
   DARKENING TREND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN WV IMAGERY...INDICATING A
   SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE WAVE. SURFACE LOW IN W-CNTRL MN IS
   PROGGED TO LIFT ALMOST DUE N TO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION BY 21Z
   THIS AFTERNOON. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP THE DEFORMATION ZONE AXIS
   ALIGNED ROUGHLY NORTH-TO-SOUTH ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND WILL
   SUPPORT HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 IN/HR OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. RUC/NAM-ETA INDICATE WEAKENING OF THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
   LATER THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD DIMINISH THEREAFTER AS THE
   HEAVIEST SNOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 03/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
   
   48909554 47009621 46009729 46189861 47449826 48999797

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0234
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0936 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...AR
   
   CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE
   
   VALID 111536Z - 111630Z
   
   ...MODERATE RISK WILL BE EXTENDED NWD INTO PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN MO
   AND SRN IL ON THE 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK...
   
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING NEWD THROUGH TX THIS MORNING WITH
   MOISTURE ADVECTING NWD INTO MO/SRN IL. INTENSE CONVECTION IS
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER NWD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO MO/IL
   AND THE MODERATE RISK WILL BE EXTENDED INTO THESE AREA ON THE
   UPCOMING DAY 1 OUTLOOK. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL
   ...THOUGH TORNADOES ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
   
   ..IMY.. 03/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...
   
   33599307 34069478 35999490 37489371 39089185 39389035
   38918841 36908900 35149017 34339141

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0235
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1021 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...HEAVY SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN CA
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 111621Z - 112115Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER
   ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN CA...INCLUDING THE SAN GABRIEL/SAN
   BERNARDINO/SAN JACINTO/LAGUNA MOUNTAINS...MAINLY ABOVE 2000-2500 FT.
   SNOW RATES OF 2 IN/HR WILL BE COMMON...WITH 3 IN/HR POSSIBLE WITH
   THE MORE INTENSE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.
   
   IN PRESENCE OF STRONG/DEEP UPPER TROUGH PER WV IMAGERY...RATHER COLD
   VERTICAL PROFILES EXIST ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AS EVIDENCED BY 12Z RAOBS
   FROM VANDENBERG/EDWARDS AFB/SAN DIEGO THIS MORNING. MESONET
   OBSERVATIONS/REPORTS ARE ALREADY INDICATIVE OF SNOW LEVELS AS LOW AS
   2000-2500 FT...WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE FLUCTUATION EXPECTED PER
   LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. STRONG JET DYNAMICS/OROGRAPHIC ASCENT
   WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN
   CA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FURTHERMORE...EVIDENCED VIA 12Z OBSERVED
   RAOBS AND CG LIGHTNING FOCUSED ALONG THE SOUTHERN CA COAST...STEEP
   LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SNOW RATES WITH
   LOCALLY LOWER SNOW LEVELS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...VEF...SGX...LOX...
   
   33921653 33681640 33251642 32671635 32701675 33331698
   33861729 34031756 34101782 34431777 34341678

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0236
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1159 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NWRN AR...WRN MO...AND EXTREME SERN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 111759Z - 112000Z
   
   SURFACE BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN OK...AND THEN SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD INTO
   EXTREME SERN KS...SWRN MO AND NWRN AR. MONITORING AREA FOR A WW.
   ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL..TORNADOES ARE ALSO
   POSSIBLE.
   
   WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NWRN MO AND SWWD INTO EXTREME SERN KS
   AND CENTRAL OK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ALSO MOVING NEWD THROUGH NRN
   TX AND MID LEVEL CONVECTION...INCLUDING ISOLATED LIGHTNING
   STRIKES...WAS LOCATED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTH AND EAST
   CENTRAL OK. THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CAP HAS WEAKENED
   ACROSS ERN OK...WHERE MID 70S TEMPERATURES AND 61-64 DEGREE
   DEWPOINTS WERE RESULTING IN MLCAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY
   PLUS DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 60-70 KT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS...ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CAN BE TAPPED. CURRENT
   THINKING IS SURFACE BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY 20Z...AT WHICH TIME
   A WW WOULD BE NEEDED.
   
   ..IMY.. 03/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN...
   
   38259406 37939325 37449242 34729515 35689675 36269622
   37679457

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0237
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1250 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SRN CA...
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 111850Z - 112045Z
   
   BRIEF SEVERE HAIL/WINDS AND EVEN WATERSPOUT/TORNADO THREAT WILL
   EXIST THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SRN CA COASTAL AREA...BUT THE THREAT
   IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND WW NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   COLD TROUGH ALOFT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG MID/HIGH LEVEL
   WINDS ARE RESULTING IN FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES FOR ROTATING STORMS.
   STRONGER CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED 30-60 MILES OFFSHORE AND
   OTHER STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
   THESE STORMS LIKELY WILL BE STRONGER OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...WHERE
   TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN INLAND...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
   INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AREAS...
   THE INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL/WIND EVENT AND POSSIBLY A
   BRIEF WATERSPOUT/TORNADO. IF A WATERSPOUT/TORNADO DOES DEVELOP NEAR
   THE COAST... THEY SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INLAND AND ENCOUNTER A
   COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   ..IMY.. 03/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGX...
   
   32551711 33321744 33491775 33581748 33181707 32631688

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0238
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0125 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST/EASTERN MO INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN IL AND
   EXTREME EASTERN IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 111925Z - 112100Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST/EASTERN
   MO INTO EXTREME EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL IL THROUGH MID
   AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY BY 20Z.
   
   OWING TO STEADY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX/INSOLATION...AIRMASS
   CONTINUES TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
   AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM FAR EASTERN IA INTO CENTRAL MO...AND WEST
   OF EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN IL. DEEPENING CU
   FIELD IS ALREADY EVIDENT ACROSS EASTERN MO ROUGHLY BETWEEN COLUMBIA
   AND QUINCY IL...WHERE ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NEGLIGIBLE
   SURFACE BASED INHIBITION EXISTS.
   
   GIVEN DEVELOPMENT...MODERATE INSTABILITY VIA 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE
   AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH
   LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLD TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED AND/OR
   INTERACTS WITH EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT ACROSS IL.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...
   
   42039019 41698859 41178803 39848866 38469020 38449140
   38659310 39859224 40659140

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0239
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0330 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...MO...NWRN AR...SERN IA AND CENTRAL IL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 62...
   
   VALID 112130Z - 112300Z
   
   TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 02Z FOR PORTIONS OF ERN OK...NWRN AR
   AND SWRN MO.
   
   SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS...WERE LOCATED ACROSS
   EXTREME NWRN AR AND SWRN MO. THESE STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE NEWD THROUGH NERN OK. THE STORMS SHOULD SPREAD
   NEWD DURING THE EVENING AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. THE MAIN THREAT
   WILL BE LARGE HAIL...THOUGH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR INDICATES TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
   
   WITH CONTINUED HEATING...OTHER STORMS MAY REDEVELOP IN ERN OK ALONG
   A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT/DRYLINE THAT STRETCHED FROM NEAR TUL SWWD
   TO GAINESVILLE TX. AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   APPEARS TO BE LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT THE
   SUBSIDENCE SHOULD WEAKEN TOWARD 00Z AS THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER NEWD
   INTO MO.
   
   ..IMY.. 03/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...
   
   33949686 37039521 39269266 38949170 38689142 37849130
   37379131 35649354 33839472

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0240
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0352 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 63...
   
   VALID 112152Z - 112315Z
   
   VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH #63 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z.
   
   DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY OCCUR LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON FROM ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL MO TO
   NEAR COLD FRONT/WARM FRONT CONFLUENCE IN WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWEST IL.
   THIS ACTIVITY WAS ROUGHLY LOCATED ALONG A COLUMBIA MO-QUINCY
   IL-MACOMB IL AXIS AS OF 2145Z. SIMILAR TO CURRENT TRENDS...SHORT
   TERM NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN ENE EXPANSION OF ONGOING
   ACTIVITY INTO EASTERN MO AND WEST CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL IL OVER THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MEAN STORM MOTIONS TO THE NORTHEAST AT
   40-45 MPH.
   
   LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD OWING TO 1000-1500
   J/KG MLCAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATE/STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
   LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN
   COLUMBIA MO. ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL
   MAINLY EXIST WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN BACKED AROUND TO THE
   SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND/OR IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF WARM FRONT ACROSS
   WEST CENTRAL IL.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...
   
   38149232 39039237 39829204 41009078 41478980 41478869
   41248791 40238812 39478847 38538931 38058987 38019072

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0241
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0546 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 112346Z - 120115Z
   
   THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP/SPREAD
   ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN WI OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...WITH A PRIMARY HAZARD OF LARGE HAIL. WILL MONITOR
   DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH.
   
   SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
   IL EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY
   HIGHLIGHTED BY SEVERE LEFT MOVING SUPERCELL IN HENRY COUNTY IL /EAST
   OF MOLINE/ AS OF 2345Z. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THIS CELL AND/OR
   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO BREACH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF TORNADO
   WATCH 63 ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI OVER THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS. STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES/AMPLE
   BUOYANCY WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...WITH LATEST RUC
   GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO
   SOUTH CENTRAL WI.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...
   
   43158816 41748842 41758923 41988999 43078996 43728972
   43878912 43738834 43728836

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0242
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0611 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NRN AR THROUGH SRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 62...
   
   VALID 120011Z - 120215Z
   
   LARGE HAIL REMAINS LIKELY WITH LINE OF SCATTERED SUPERCELLS FROM
   EXTREME NERN OK THROUGH SRN MO. ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO REMAIN
   POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. MOST LIKELY ZONE FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE
   DEVELOPING REMAINS OVER SRN MO NEXT FEW HOURS. DEVELOPMENT FARTHER
   SWD INTO AR APPEARS LESS CERTAIN. ANOTHER WW WILL LIKELY NEEDED FOR
   PARTS OF SRN MO AND EXTREME NRN AR WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
   
   EARLY THIS EVENING A FEW SUPERCELLS CONTINUE FROM SWRN THROUGH S
   CNTRL MO. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN MO NEWD INTO THE
   OH VALLEY THIS EVENING. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND SPREAD
   ENEWD AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND MAINTAINS INFLUX OF
   HIGHER THETA-E AIR FROM THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES. SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWEST 2 KM HAS NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY
   STRONG. THIS ALONG WITH HIGHER THAN OPTIMUM LCL HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN
   LIMITING FACTORS FOR MORE PROLIFIC TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.
   HOWEVER...THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN A WINDOW FOR
   ISOLATED TORNADOES THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   DECOUPLES. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CUMULUS DEVELOPING
   ALONG CLOUDS STREETS ACROSS PARTS OF AR. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR
   ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO DECREASE WITH SWD
   EXTENT INTO AR DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND STRONGER CAP. NEVERTHELESS
   THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF FUTURE
   DEVELOPMENT.
   
   ..DIAL.. 03/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
   
   35819484 37599355 37748973 36748989

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0243
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0639 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL INTO EASTERN MO
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 63...
   
   VALID 120039Z - 120145Z
   
   VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 63 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z.
   
   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 63...PRIMARY POTENTIAL
   FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO PERSISTS ROUGHLY FROM THE ST LOUIS METRO
   AREA SOUTHWARD...WITH LARGE HAIL OTHERWISE THE PREDOMINANT HAZARD.
   FURTHER NORTH...WELL DEVELOPED LINEAR MCS/BOWING SEGMENT HAS TAKEN
   SHAPE ACROSS CENTRAL IL OVER THE PAST 45 MINUTES...JUST WEST OF THE
   THE SPRINGFIELD AREA AS OF 0030Z. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   STABILIZES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT...ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL
   SHEAR/SUFFICIENT DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FAVOR
   ORGANIZED COLD POOL MAINTENENCE. AS SUCH...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
   MAY INCREASE IN VICINITY OF SPRINGFIELD/LINCOLN/DECATUR IN THE SHORT
   TERM AS MCS SPREADS EASTWARD. FURTHER NORTH...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
   ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST IL APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
   
   41088992 41588914 41418775 40818778 39248839 37988953
   37899019 38009115 38339129 39069104 39569035 40158999

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0244
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0739 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MOUNTAINS OF EAST CENTRAL AZ
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 120139Z - 120545Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE/GRADUALLY FOCUS PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD
   THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF EAST CENTRAL AZ...WITH
   SNOW RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2500 FT.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR DIAGNOSTICS FEATURE DEEP/COLD UPPER
   TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
   JET WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVERSPREADING SOUTHERN CA INTO THE
   SOUTHWEST DESERTS. IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS...STEEP
   LAPSE RATES AND PRONOUNCED OROGRAPHIC ASCENT VIA STRONG MID LEVEL SW
   JET -- 60 KTS AT 700 MB IN TUCSON RAOB -- WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD
   HEAVY SNOW INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF AZ...WITH A GRADUAL
   EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW
   RATES OF 2 IN/HR WILL BE COMMON...WITH 3 IN/HR RATES POSSIBLE IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE
   RATES...FURTHER EVIDENCED BY PERSISTENT LIGHTNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
   AZ.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
   
   35131217 35261138 34820989 34440915 33270848 33110909
   33341014 33521079 34021203 34281237 34641246

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0245
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0748 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...SERN OK THROUGH W CNTRL AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 120148Z - 120315Z
   
   RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A RECENT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
   SERN OK AND NERN TX. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THE ENVIRONMENT CAN
   SUPPORT PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...IF THIS
   ACTIVITY BEGINS TO INTENSIFY...A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED FROM PARTS OF
   EXTREME NERN TX...SERN OK INTO W CNTRL AR.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS EVIDENCE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER
   NERN OK THAT EXTENDS WWD AND INTERSECTS A DRYLINE OVER E CNTRL OK.
   THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING FROM
   ERN TX INTO SERN OK AND AR. THE STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
   FEATURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALONG AND N OF THE E-W ORIENTED OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY ACROSS NERN OK INTO NWRN AR. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN
   ASCENT AND WARM ADVECTION IS ALSO LIKELY FARTHER SWD. THE 00Z RAOB
   AND RUC SOUNDING DATA SHOW PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL INVERSION BETWEEN
   2.5 AND 3 KM. THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING FROM NERN TX INTO
   SERN OK IS LIKELY SHALLOW AND MAY STRUGGLE TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE
   INVERSION. THIS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...IF
   TRENDS SUGGEST DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OR IS IMMINENT...A WW
   WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER THROUGH 6 KM WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL WITH ANY STORM THAT INITIATES WITHIN THE
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
   
   ..DIAL.. 03/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...
   
   33319452 33319568 35089532 35299473 35509402 34259396

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0246
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0806 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN IL INTO WESTERN INDIANA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 63...
   
   VALID 120206Z - 120330Z
   
   VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 63...NAMELY THE ORIGINAL
   EASTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS...CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH
   ISSUANCE INTO INDIANA IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL
   CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
   
   RELATIVELY ORGANIZED STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO
   PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL IL OVER THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS. CIRCULATION/VORTEX EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY NEAR THE
   PONTIAC/BLOOMINGTON IL AREAS AS OF 02Z...WITH REMAINING PORTION OF
   MCS EXTENDING ALONG A BLOOMINGTON-TAYLORVILLE-TO NEAR ST LOUIS AXIS.
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS VIA THIS MCS...IN ADDITION TO
   THE POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE HAIL...WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM.
   WITH EASTWARD EXTENT...WARM FRONT ACROSS IL HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP
   EASTWARD EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH A RATHER STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
   LINGER FROM FAR EASTERN IL INTO INDIANA...IT APPEARS AN ADDITIONAL
   WATCH ISSUANCE MAY NOT BE NEEDED EAST OF WW 63...WITH A DIMINISHING
   SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...
   
   41478830 41278697 40458675 39388700 38708803 38708834
   38738936 38898977

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0247
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0911 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN THROUGH E CNTRL IL AND EXTREME WRN IND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 120311Z - 120445Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP EWD INTO SRN AND E CNTRL IL BY 04Z.
   SUPERCELLS AND LINES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY THREATS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AREA
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED IF TRENDS
   SUGGEST STORMS WILL MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD.
   
   AN AREA OF SCATTERED SUPERCELLS EXTENDS FROM SERN MO SWWD THROUGH
   SWRN MO AND NWRN AR. LEAD SUPERCELL CURRENTLY OVER EXTREME SERN MO
   IN MADISON AND PERRY COUNTY WILL MOVE OUT OF WW 62 BY 04Z IF IT
   SURVIVES BEYOND THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS STORMS HAS RECENTLY SHOWN
   A WEAKENING TREND. SQUALL LINE ALSO CONTINUES OVER ERN IL. THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER IS LESS UNSTABLE WITH EWD EXTENT INTO IL/IND AND IS
   IN THE PROCESS OF DECOUPLING WHICH COULD POSE SOME LIMITING FACTORS.
   HOWEVER...STRONG SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN FEED OF HIGHER
   THETA-E AIR AND SUPPORT SOME NEWD DESTABILIZATION... ESPECIALLY
   ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
   PROMOTE ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINES WITH
   LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.
   
   ..DIAL.. 03/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
   
   37468968 39608826 39948693 37928771 37058916

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0248
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1050 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IL INTO SRN IND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 120450Z - 120545Z
   
   CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES
   MAY PERSIST INTO SRN IND. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA SHORTLY.
   
   STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NEWD DESTABILIZATION
   WITH TIME INTO SRN IND AS WARM FRONT SHIFTS NEWD. STRONG LOW LEVEL
   AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
   
   ..DIAL.. 03/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...
   
   37648821 38528794 38598650 38118628 37638726

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0249
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1113 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...CNTRL AND NRN AR...SRN MO...AND SRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 64...65...66...
   
   VALID 120513Z - 120645Z
   
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
   TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FROM ERN OK
   THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL AR...SRN MO AND SRN IL.
   
   LATEST VWP DATA SHOW 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 300 TO 400
   M2/S2 OVER THIS REGION. DESPITE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...MIXING
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET HAS APPARENTLY
   LIMITED THE DEGREE OF DECOUPLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS HAS
   MAINTAINED THE ABILITY OF SOME STORMS TO REMAIN SURFACE BASED WITH
   TORNADOES RECENTLY BEING REPORTED FROM PARTS OF SRN MO INTO SRN IL.
   THETA-E ADVECTION AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG 50+ KT LOW
   LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM ERN
   OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 03/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...
   
   37768840 36939034 34809248 34019428 35889516 37809338
   38578888

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0250
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0339 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO / NRN AR / SRN IL / SWRN IND / WRN KY
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 68...
   
   VALID 120939Z - 121115Z
   
   THROUGH 11-12Z THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST
   ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM APPROXIMATELY 20 NW POF TO S OF EVV.
   ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST
   STORMS.
   
   AS OF 0925Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A QUASI-LINEAR
   CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM NERN OH SWWD INTO SRN MO WITH A
   GENERAL ENEWD CELL MOTION.  WITHIN THE PAST HALF HOUR...TSTM OVER
   SERN MO /WAYNE CO/ HAS INTENSIFIED WHILE MOVING 255/35-40 KTS.
   MESOANALYSIS AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT DOWNSTREAM
   ENVIRONMENT OVER FAR SERN MO...FAR SRN IL INTO WRN KY REMAINS QUITE
   FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH MLCAPES OF 1000
   J/KG...50-60 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 200-300 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH. 
   
   
   ELSEWHERE...MERGING OUTFLOWS HAVE RESULTED IN A CONSOLIDATED
   TRAINING LINE OF TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
   WITH HOURLY RATES OF 1-1.5 INCHES.  IT APPEARS THE BEST POTENTIAL
   FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EXIST ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA /NAMELY
   SWRN MO/ WHERE STRONG WAA IS ONGOING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO PRIMARY
   LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS SITUATED OVER OK AND N TX.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
   
   37309471 39008655 36838648 35069475

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0251
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0432 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 121032Z - 121200Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL IS
   EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   10Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN CO WITH AN
   ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS NRN OK INTO NRN AR.
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO FALLING HEIGHTS AND PRESSURES OVER
   THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IS RESULTING IN THE BACKING AND
   INTENSIFICATION OF NOCTURNAL LLJ FROM OK INTO CNTRL AND WRN KS.
   THIS PROCESS IS EFFECTIVELY ENHANCING THE TRANSPORT OF A MOIST
   LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS /I.E. AROUND 850 MB/ BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM.  THIS DESTABILIZATION /CURRENTLY THE
   STRONGEST OVER S-CNTRL AND SERN KS WHERE MUCAPES ARE INCREASING TO
   1000-1500 J/KG/ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NWD THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN KS
   THIS MORNING.
   
   REGIONAL RADAR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE COOLING CLOUD TOPS
   AND AN ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER N-CNTRL OK/S-CNTRL
   KS...AND LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE RUC AND GFS SUGGEST
   ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY
   THROUGH 12Z.  GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 50-60 KTS OF EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS
   WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
   
   37049790 37629848 38269868 39199804 39519687 39149551
   37939472 37289488 36989618