Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 280846
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
446 AM AST TUE JUL 28 2009

SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA
REMAINED DRY WITH ONLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WATERS TO OUR
WEST. WINDS CONTINUED BREEZY FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20
MPH.

DRY...HAZY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EXPECT MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN DURING
THE MORNING AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
WATER BETWEEN THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DRY AIR AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ALSO FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND SEAS WILL BE
CHOPPY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND ALL PASSAGES. THROUGHOUT ALL OTHER
WATERS...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO FRESH WINDS
AND CHOPPY SEAS.


$$

[Gustywind]

Good morning all
The tropical wave at 48West continues to race towards the East carib...

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 281048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED
ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 43W-52W.
$$
HUFFMAN

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest about the two waves that are east of us.

000
AXNT20 KNHC 281736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 24N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
ROTATION WITH A WEAKENING 1012 MB LOW SW OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 15N27W AS INDICATED BY QUIKSCAT. THIS WAVE IS AT
THE LEADING EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED BY TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ANY CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-20 KT.
THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A APEX OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM BASED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
11N-15N BETWEEN 49W-53W.

[Gustywind]

Here is the latest about the two waves that are east of us.

000
AXNT20 KNHC 281736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 24N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
ROTATION WITH A WEAKENING 1012 MB LOW SW OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 15N27W AS INDICATED BY QUIKSCAT. THIS WAVE IS AT
THE LEADING EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED BY TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ANY CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-20 KT.
THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A APEX OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM BASED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
11N-15N BETWEEN 49W-53W.

Tkanks Luis and good job as...usual

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
348 PM AST TUE JUL 28 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW WITH HAZE/DUST AND
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHRA ACTIVITY. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50W THIS
AFTERNOON TO PASS MAINLY S OF THE LOCAL AREA ON THU. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...REALLY NOT MUCH TO TALK ABT IN THE TROPICS. SAHARAN
AIR LAYER CONTINUES TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH ONE
CONCENTRATED AREA OF DUST/HAZE OVR THE NRN LEEWARD ISLES AND ANOTHER
ONE BETWEEN 25W AND 40W LONGITUDE BASED ON SAL ANALYSIS FROM CIMSS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A VERY DRY ATMS WITH A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE FOR TOMORROW SO AM ANTICIPATING PRETTY MUCH NOTHING JUST HAZE
AND WINDY CONDITIONS.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50W THIS AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO PASS
MAINLY S OF THE AREA ON THU WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT. SEASONABLE WX FOR THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLD/SCT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION ACROSS THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND ISOLD MORNING
SHRAS IN THE EAST BUT WITH A NOTICEABLE DROP IN WINDS.

LATEST MJO PROGNOSIS FROM THE CPC WEB SITE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF AUGUST. SO IT APPEARS THE HURRICANE SEASON WILL CONTINUE
TO BE PUT ON HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION...HAZE WITH 6-8SM VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KTS ARE
THE MAIN CONCERN THE NEXT 24 HRS. SOME INCREASE IN SHRA ACTIVITY
EXPECTED ON THU AS A TROPICAL WAVES PASSES TO THE SOUTH. WINDS
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN AOA 20 KT ESPECIALLY ACROSS CARIBBEAN
WATERS THROUGH THU EVENING THEN DECREASE BELOW SCA. WAVES XPCD AT
5-7 FT OVER UNPROTECTED WATERS.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

I'd like to ask whether you think the Windward Islands are at significant risk the full first week of August? Maybe from the new big wave off Africa?

Just finalizing some plans and sure could use some input. I realize of course no one can predict the future. TIA.

WLD.

[Gustywind]

waouw, i tkink that you have the answer..."I realize of course no one can predict the future" . Humm more seriously, it's difficult to anticipate that (and especially a part of the Carib, so say Windwards ok, and why not Leewards too?), some models do show better conditions, more conducive during the next couple days or weeks...neverthless it's maybe a difficult challenge to tkink that Windwards Islands are at significant risk the full first week of August than the Leewards for example, the islands are so close each other and consequently the cone of incertitudes (impact of a cane) is so wide in my humble opinion of amateur WeatherLovingDoc.
I don't know if you have understand my reasonning but one tkink for sure the chances to see a TD, a TS or a cane are much higher next week than this week climatologically. Whereas in my opinion it's pretty hard to have a good idea on this type of risk 7 days or 10 days before something form in the Atlantic.
Us in the carib have to monitor carefully all these waves as we're more vulnerable...For more infos ask Cycloneye, he will be able to answer you with better precisions than me, i tkink
Nice regards
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 281940
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
340 PM AST TUE JUL 28 2009

SKIES WERE PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF
THE LOCAL AREA REMAINED DRY WITH ONLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS CONTINUED BREEZY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO
20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT DRY...HAZY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

DRY AIR AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY. THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA ON
THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...WINDS WILL BE FROM MODERATE TO FRESH AND
SEAS WILL BE CHOPPY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND ALL PASSAGES FOR AT
LEAST THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Seem to have lost some posts. Thanks Gustywind. I'm just wired towards specifics. I did see this above too:

"LATEST MJO PROGNOSIS FROM THE CPC WEB SITE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF AUGUST. SO IT APPEARS THE HURRICANE SEASON WILL CONTINUE
TO BE PUT ON HOLD."

WLD

[Gustywind]

The weak twave around the 50W is always churning near the east carib without much convection...

000
AXNT20 KNHC 281736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-20 KT.
THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A APEX OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM BASED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
11N-15N BETWEEN 49W-53W.

[Gustywind]

Seem to have lost some posts. Thanks Gustywind. I'm just wired towards specifics. I did see this above too:

"LATEST MJO PROGNOSIS FROM THE CPC WEB SITE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF AUGUST. SO IT APPEARS THE HURRICANE SEASON WILL CONTINUE
TO BE PUT ON HOLD."

WLD

No problem my friend i'm glad to help you, we're here to be the more informative as possible. So seems that the first weel of August does not show an iminnent feature in organization and that's good news for you and our neighbours from the Carib islands

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 282330
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
So my carib friends we could enjoy the sea the sun and the s...MILE

[expat2carib]

Here in Scotts Head on Dominica the "usual" gusty winds became more gusty right now.

I looked at the radar but nothing much extraordinary is happening.

For some days ago, Dannyboy's (the local boatbuilder in Soufriere) galvanized roof was blown off.

Not even the local weather prediction was mentioning and/or reporting anything to watch.

I guess it's small micro-like systems passing.

That's the way it is here I assume.

[Gustywind]

Here in Scotts Head on Dominica the "usual" gusty winds became more gusty right now.

I looked at the radar but nothing much extraordinary is happening.

For some days ago, Dannyboy's (the local boatbuilder in Soufriere) galvanized roof was blown off.

Not even the local weather prediction was mentioning and/or reporting anything to watch.

I guess it's small micro-like systems passing.

That's the way it is here I assume.

Pretty interresting info expat2carib, maybe as you said "it's small micro-like systems passing" and should i add orographic effects maybe, who knows? But i appreciate this informative reply, and ours neighbours from Dominica are not forgotten!

[expat2carib]

Thanks Gusty,

I really appreciate your posts. Especially because you have the Meteo France info which I can't really understand.

[Gustywind]

Thanks Gusty,

I really appreciate your posts. Especially because you have the Meteo France info which I can't really understand.

Tkanks a lot, yours too for sure, very interresting post! . I try to put a kind atmosphere here with my sense of humor, hope i have some . Whereas, I'm glad to have infos from Dominica , i never came back in your beautiful island since 1991, waouw i will try this summer or during the next summer 2010 i love nature and the rivers 365 in your island if i'm not wrong . If you have any infos from your island you can send PM too .
Nice regards Gustywind

[cycloneye]

Gusty,you provide us with humor that is good to have. Its a bit breezy tonight but with no showers.

[Gustywind]

Gusty,you provide us with humor that is good to have. Its a bit breezy tonight but with no showers.

Ohhh tkanks LUIS, i'm glad to read that, you too, you're "el talento de la casa", i personnaly appreciate your brigthness, you seem pretty openminded, your points of views well developped, your calm and many others qualities you know that. I'm happy to see that you're here tonight, on this thread, i try to help you and the others by posting the forecasts, sat pics concerning the Carib as possible, i tkink that you have noticied that too... especially today We make a good job
Nothing here in Guadeloupe, it's pretty calm!
Good night Expat2Carib and you Cycloneye, msbee too and the others...

[expat2carib]

Thanks.... All you others as well.

This is becoming like a kind of family thread LOL I appreciate it.