Caribbean - Central America Weather

[msbee]

Thats good news for PR but i sure hope Haiti doesn't get hit with a lot of rain from this system. They sure don't need it.

[Gustywind]

Hi Luis and Barbara, looks like 91L is continuing to pose a threat for us but is hopefully not very well organized, that's the good news unless things evolves. People are not really prepared here, many talks reveals a lack of confidence concerning its credibilty, we shall see but for my part i'm keeping a close eye on this one. Hey Barbara, pretty informative message for the Northern Leewards.

From Stormcarib.com
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/stmartin.shtml

- SxmDCOMM - EOC recommends continued vigilance; System continues to show signs of development
•By Roddy Heyliger <roddyheyliger at gmail.com>
•Date: Mon, 1 Aug 2011 11:28:52 -0400

News Release

Department of Communication (DCOMM), Ennia Bldg., Longwall Rd., Philipsburg, Sint Maarten D.W.I. Tel. 00-599-543-1162, 542-4119, Fax: 543-1169; Email: gis at sintmaarten.net;

For Immediate Release: Monday, August 01, 2011/N209/ESF-8 – ANNOUNCEMENT 11.30AM

EOC recommends continued vigilance; System continues to show signs of development

GREAT BAY, Sint Maarten (DCOMM) – The Emergency Operations Center (EOC) on Monday morning continues to closely monitor the approaching tropical wave/low pressure system.

A recent hurricane center reconnaissance investigation on Monday morning revealed that the tropical wave does not have a closed surface circulation center, but did find winds of near tropical storm force.

The 10 Emergency Support Functions (ESFs) will remain on alert Monday and Tuesday.

The Department of Disaster Management (ODM) advises the population to continue to monitor the progress of the approaching Tropical Wave (TW)/low pressure system for possible further development.

According to the National Hurricane Center, if the system develops into a storm, tropical storm watches and warnings could be issued at very short notice for the Leeward Islands which includes Sint Maarten.

The ODM will continue to closely monitor this system for possible further development and the public will be duly informed.


# # #

Roddy Heyliger (roddyheyliger at gmail.com; 00 599 581-6323)

Department of Communication (DCOMM), Sint Maarten

Best regards,
Roddy Heyliger - BB pin 21437DBE

P.O.Box 945, Philipsburg, St. Maarten
Cell: 5204217-primary, 5816323-secondary

Public Relations & Communications
Secondary Email: roddyheyliger at yahoo.com

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

This system has been for sure a very interesting one to study in many aspects especially,how slow things evolve in systems that are in the Tropical Atlantic. Will this be the pattern for the rest of the season? Ok that is for a topic at Talking Tropics. When it started as a invest,it looked omminous how the models had the intensity as a cat 1 where it is now.But all is now good for the Lesser Antille islands,only showers and some winds,but compared to what it was on the tables 3 days ago,is nothing.

[Gustywind]

This system has been for sure a very interesting one to study in many aspects especially,how slow things evolve in systems that are in the Tropical Atlantic. Will this be the pattern for the rest of the season? Ok that is for a topic at Talking Tropics. When it started as a invest,it looked omminous how the models had the intensity as a cat 1 where it is now.But all is now good for the Lesser Antille islands,only showers and some winds,but compared to what it was on the tables 3 days ago,is nothing.

Right Luis, excellent analysis . Let's wait and see what pan's out from 91L but looks like things may not be too woorying that what the previous forecasts were showing. Keep us informed Luis, thanks for all.

[Macrocane]

High rainfall amounts have been registered since yesterday afternoon in most of El Salvador and unfortuanetly some flash floods were reported yesterday in western El Salvador killing to people. These are some of the accumulations in the 24 hours ending at 7 am today:

Saan Francisco Gotera 86 mm/3.39 inches
La Hachadura 82 mm/3.23 inches
Los Andes 65 mm/2.56 inches
Sensuntepeque 60 mm/2.36 inches
Santa Ana 57 mm/2.24 inches
San Salvador 57 mm/2.24 inches Highest 24 hours accumulation for 2011 in this station
Acajutla 50 mm/1.97 inches
Perquin 50 mm/1.97 inches

This map shows the rainfall (in mm) in the country for the same period:

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES EASTWARD
FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL
WAVE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE
THIS MORNING. THE WAVE IS PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM LATER TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A
TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY SHORT NOTICE. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[msbee]

hey Gusty
stay safe there. what do you think Guadeloupe will get from this system?

The uncertainty with this storm has caused most of us to be unprepared if it should suddenly strengthen. It doesn't look like it is going to do that right now, but still you are right..keep a close eye on it.

Our EOC is pretty much on the ball.... just don't know if anyone is paying attention.

wind has picked up here. 18 MPH from ENE

Barbara

[msbee]

FYI
Our local radar is working once again

http://www.meteo.an/SatRadarImages/Img_ ... i_Loop.asp

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
323 PM AST MON AUG 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
OFFSHORE WATERS TUE NIGHT. HEAVY RAINS AND SQUALLS WITH NEAR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PR/USVI TUE NIGHT-WED.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS TROPICAL WAVE TO THE
EAST OF THE ANTILLES. 18Z ANALYSIS FROM NHC SHOWS POSSIBLE LOW
LEVEL CENTER NEAR 15.3N AND 60.5W MOVING TO THE WNW OR 290 DEGS AT
18 KT. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 30 KT WHICH EXTEND AS FAR AS 60NM TO
THE NORTHEAST. 18Z EARLY TRACK GUIDANCE AND 12Z GLOBAL MODELS KEEP
THE SYSTEM ROUGHLY ABOUT 2 DEGS SOUTH OF PR TUE NIGHT. USED 12Z OP
GFS FOR WX AND WINDS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS
INTO A NAMED STORM OR NOT...SQUALLS WITH HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PR/USVI TUE NIGHT AND WED. SQUALLS
WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY TUE AND BECOME MORE
FREQ AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

ASSUMING SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP...WIND ADVISORIES AND A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WOULD NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR ALL LAND AREAS AT SOME
TIME EITHER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO HAPPEN
DURING THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING MAY ALSO BE
ISSUED FOR CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS.

MAIN IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE:

WINDS...GUSTS 35-40 MPH LOCALLY HIGHER OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN AND
OVER WATER ESPECIALLY IN RAINBANDS. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KT OR GREATER ASSUMING NO TS WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED.

HEAVY RAINS/FLASH FLOODING...WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 5
INCHES MAINLY EASTERN HALF OF PR AND THE SOUTHERN SLOPES. WEST AND
NORTHWEST AREAS WILL SEE LESSER AMOUNTS. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY
IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS AND RIVERS SUCH AS MARIN RIVER IN
PATILLAS...LA PLATA RIVER...LOIZA RIVER TRIBUTARIES AND ALL SMALL
RIVERS IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO AND OF COURSE URBAN
AREAS IN THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA.

TORNADOES/WATERSPOUTS....BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADOES OR WATERSPOUTS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY TUE EVENING.

DANGEROUS HIGH SURF CONDITIONS CARIBBEAN SHORES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH 12Z TUE. WX CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY TUE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS IN +RA. LLWS AND TURBULENCE
ALSO EXPECTED TUE FIRST LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS THEN SPREADING
WWD LATE TUE PR TERMINALS.


&&

.MARINE...SCA FOR ALL WATERS FOR 20-25 KT WATERS. GALE WARNINGS
MAY BE REQUIRED ASSUMING NO TS WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS MAY ALSO ISSUED AT ANY TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 90 78 83 / 30 90 90 90
STT 78 90 78 83 / 50 100 100 90

[Gustywind]

hey Gusty
stay safe there. what do you think Guadeloupe will get from this system?

The uncertainty with this storm has caused most of us to be unprepared if it should suddenly strengthen. It doesn't look like it is going to do that right now, but still you are right..keep a close eye on it.

Our EOC is pretty much on the ball.... just don't know if anyone is paying attention.

wind has picked up here. 18 MPH from ENE

Barbara

Thanks Barbara. Not much preparations here, but looks like that this thing could be a TD even a TS Emily given the west winds founds by the hunter aircraft unofficialy. We should pay attention on this feature as Martinica has requiered an orange cyclone like us (since yesterday 5PM). Be safe and dry.

[msbee]

Gusty, how are things there now?

[Gustywind]

Gusty, how are things there now?

Nothing in my locality for the moment Barbara. And you?

[msbee]

we're fine.. just breezy. looks like we dodged the bullet, as they say

[Gustywind]

we're fine.. just breezy. looks like we dodged the bullet, as they say

light showers wind si very calm.

[cycloneye]

I am glad the all in the Lesser Antilles dodged a bullet. Now is my turn to see what track takes before it reaches 66-67 west,but hopefully PR also dodges it.

[msbee]

good luck to PR Luis.
we all hope you dodge it too.

[cycloneye]

PR is now almost out of the cone at the 11 PM track.

[Macrocane]

Hopefully Puerto Rico will dodge the bullet but the cone shows the track of the center the outer bands may still produce heavy rains although I'm sure you will not let your guard down. Take care!

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
408 AM AST TUE AUG 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM EMILY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD TODAY
AND MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO SAINT CROIX THIS MORNING AND TO
PR THIS EVENING. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN PR
AND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EMILY CONTINUES TO RACE TO THE WEST THIS MORNING
AROUND 17 MPH. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW ANY SIG
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION TO EMILY. SHE SEEMS TO BE RUNNING OUT OF
TIME TO INTENSIFY INTO ANYTHING MORE THAN A MINIMAL TROPICAL
STORM. EMILY IS XPCD TO MAKE HER CLOSEST APPROACH TO ST. CROIX
THIS MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO PR
NEAR MAYAGUEZ LATE THIS EVENING.

THE 02/03Z NHC ADVISORY KEEPS THE 34-KT WIND RADII MAINLY OVER
WATER WHILE THE LATEST 06Z EARLY TRACK GUIDANCE PRETTY MUCH KEEPS
EMILY MOVING STEADILY WWD PASSING SOME 60+ NM SSW OF MAYAGUEZ AT
10 PM. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF EMILY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS WITH MAINLY OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING THE
ISLANDS. THESE RAINBANDS SHOULD BECOME MORE FREQUENT FROM MIDDAY
TODAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF INCH
AMOUNTS IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THESE RAINBANDS WILL ALSO
BE ACCOMPANIED WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. SINCE CORE OF EMILY
XPCD TO REMAIN OVER WATER AM INCLINED NOT TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCH
ATTM. LATEST ETRAP PRODUCT DOES NOT SHOW ENOUGH RAINFALL TO
WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH EITHER. WILL WAIT FOR NEW ETRAP AROUND 0930Z
TO SEE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THE 02/03Z SREF SHOWS THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST PR TONIGHT.

PERHAPS OF GREATER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TORNADOES OR
WATERSPOUTS TO MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.

WX CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PRETTY MOIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
EVEN AS EMILY MOVES OUT OF THE PICTURE WITH ESE FLOW KEEPING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.

MORNING FCST PACKAGE WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THE 09Z NHC ADVISORY ON
EMILY IS RELEASED.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS XPCD TODAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS WINDS TURN MORE EAST SOUTHEAST AS EMILY
PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF PR. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS REDUCING VSBYS TO ONE MILE OR LESS
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. LLWS AND TURBULENCE CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS XPCD TO BUILD POSSIBLY UP TO 12 FT ATLC WATERS
WHERE A LONG EASTERLY FETCH IS XPCD TO DEVELOP WHILE SEAS OF 7-9
FT SHOULD SUFFICE FOR CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS DUE TO A SHORTER
FETCH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 81 83 77 / 90 90 90 50
STT 83 79 83 75 / 90 90 90 50