Texas Summer 2018

[Cpv17]

The significant changes were beyond D7 on the operational run. Run-to-run changes at that range are to be expected. The EPS trended slightly towards the Op beyond D7.

Yeah I know, but the CPC are Euro huggers and their updated forecast shows it lol yesterdays CPC forecast looked much better. I’m not buying it cuz it’s just one run and the CPC has been wrong many times before.

[FunNestlé]

This fantastic article by the Washington Post just underscores how unusual the jet-stream pattern has been in the US recently:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/cap ... affd42f6d8

Which brings back to the point that this July/August dryness is not a phenomenon that is supposed to be happening in much of Texas as far as "expected" climate patterns are concerned.

[bubba hotep]

Euro Weeklies say there might be a warm up or two but summer is basically over, if you believe this run.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Euro Weeklies say there might be a warm up or two but summer is basically over, if you believe this run.

Oh my heart be still

[Brent]

Euro Weeklies say there might be a warm up or two but summer is basically over, if you believe this run.

one can only hope

Had my phone reading 122 in downtown Vegas this afternoon It was a pretty dry heat but still

Be back in Dallas tomorrow afternoon

[weatherdude1108]

025
FXUS64 KEWX 270843
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
343 AM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
The Subtropical Ridge remains the dominant influence extending from
California to Texas. Above normal high temperatures (within a
category of 100) continue. Heat indices near the temperature this
afternoon become slightly elevated Saturday into Sunday afternoons
with less mixing of dewpoints as a lower level flow off the Gulf of
Mexico becomes more prevalent. Some CAMS models show a few showers
over Central Texas this afternoon into evening and near the Coastal
Plains on Saturday afternoon. However, for now, will keep mention out
of forecast as expect mixing to make for a shallow moisture depth.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Thursday)...
An an upper level shortwave and cold front drop south over the
Plains on Monday eroding the portion of the Ridge over Texas. The
models have continued to slow the frontal passage until overnight
Monday night into Tuesday. As a result, have pared back POPs to only
Llano and Burnet Counties for Monday during the day. An upper level
trough develops along the Mississippi Valley to the Central Gulf
Coast by Tuesday and remains there through Thursday. While the ECMWF
has trended drier with respect to QPF, decent moisture convergence
and upward forcing with the front are indicated by all models and
still expect scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday night into
Tuesday. In the wake of the frontal passage, moisture convergence and
upward forcing lingers across the Rio Grande Plains and western Hill
Country with isolated to possibly scattered showers and
thunderstorms those areas going into Wednesday. Drier air due to a
northerly flow aloft ends all POPs by Thursday. "Cooler", near normal
temperatures are expected on Tuesday, then a slow rise on Wednesday
and Thursday.

Beyond this forecast, looking ahead to next weekend, the GFS pinches
off the southern end of the upper level trough and brings it west
across Texas leading to a possibility of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

[weatherdude1108]

[srainhoutx]

I wouldn't worry too much about the coming week regarding rain chances, particularly across S, S Central and SE Texas. A weakness develops as the frontal boundary stalls along the Coast and pushes back inland before washing out. There is a surge of tropical moisture expected to move N out of the Bay of Campeche later next week as well. For you folks in N Texas, you'll need to monitor for any MCS development to your N pushing into your area along the periphery of the Western Ridge and the trough to the East. Models will struggle with this setup and the sensible weather will be driven by mesoscale features that cannot be determined beyond 6 to 12 hours.

[Portastorm]

This fantastic article by the Washington Post just underscores how unusual the jet-stream pattern has been in the US recently:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/cap ... affd42f6d8

Which brings back to the point that this July/August dryness is not a phenomenon that is supposed to be happening in much of Texas as far as "expected" climate patterns are concerned.

I couldn't disagree more with you on this. The pattern we have seen in Texas for the last month with the subtropical high centered over the state is a classic summer weather pattern. The article you reference is mainly focused on the deep trough which has been over the eastern US. Summer and dryness in Texas is standard operating procedure. The only areas which traditionally get breaks may be the Gulf Coast due to tropical influences and the Panhandle once the late summer "monsoon" starts up and they get diurnal convection. Early in summer we sometimes see a northwest flow and MCS systems ride SE through the state but that's about it. Otherwise it is hot and dry in Texas in summer.

[FunNestlé]

I couldn't disagree more with you on this. The pattern we have seen in Texas for the last month with the subtropical high centered over the state is a classic summer weather pattern. The article you reference is mainly focused on the deep trough which has been over the eastern US. Summer and dryness in Texas is standard operating procedure. The only areas which traditionally get breaks may be the Gulf Coast due to tropical influences and the Panhandle once the late summer "monsoon" starts up and they get diurnal convection. Early in summer we sometimes see a northwest flow and MCS systems ride SE through the state but that's about it. Otherwise it is hot and dry in Texas in summer.

No, you aren't reading me right. I've described the details of my position numerous times already on this thread, simply because it can't be stressed enough. The subtropical high being centered over Texas is a "classic summer pattern" only in the sense that it just so happens to be the pattern that has prevailed over the state for many years on average. That I am not disputing.

But the reality is that such a pattern is actually deviant, an aberration from what one would from the area given the latitude and location. Basically, the type of situation that geographer Glenn Trewartha identified as a "problem climate:"
https://books.google.com/books?id=bV3C5 ... es&f=false

The only reason that high pressure ridge influences Texas as much as it does during summer is because of the constant tendency towards troughing in the Eastern US (centered somewhere in the Great Lakes/MS River Valley longitude). That is courtesy of frequent high amplitude jet stream patterns across North America, in turn caused by the deflections of the Westerlies by the Rocky Mountains. If you looked at model runs throughout the month, you would have seen that the ridge only started getting into positions that were subsident over Texas once those troughs started diving deep in the East.

It's part of the same "warm West, cold East" dipole pattern that has been talked about numerous times this past winter by climatologists, and has been quite frequent across the country since Hurricane Ike, responsible for the "hurricane drought". In the case of summer, it means that westerly influence extends farther south into the Eastern US, which causes the high pressure to be shaped in a way that drags dry, subsident air into Texas. That, in turn, signals that such a pattern of dryness over Texas is really more of a spring/fall pattern that just so happens to be in occurrence during summer months. But put in a real summer pattern, when those westerlies are locked up in Canada and replaced with tropical easterlies, and Texas gets just as much rain as Florida, and in many cases even steals the show.

[Texas Snowman]

If you looked at model runs throughout the month, you would have seen that the ridge only started getting into positions that were subsident over Texas once those troughs started diving deep in the East.

A little friendly moderator advice here. Portastorm is one of our longest running members and he’s very, very knowledgeable too. I can assure you that he has looked at numerous model runs this month, not to mention that he is highly knowledgeable about Texas weather in all seasons including summertime.

He’s also a longtime moderator here. While he isn’t a professional meteorologist, I’d suggest treating him with a good deal of respect (failure to do so with our pro Mets earns a timeout in the corner). Perhaps I’m misreading your tone and intentions here. Healthy, friendly debate is certainly welcome here. But disrespect isn’t, particularly with our pro Mets and likewise, our moderators.

Now back to regular programming.

[Ntxw]

FW is forecasting low 90s for highs and low 70s for lows early week. That will feel rather pleasant given the recent heat. Past few days dew points up here have been in the 50s and low 60s so actually the 95-100F isn't actually that bad.

I just want a nice cool fall for once, it's been awhile since one of those after top warmest of the past several years. It can be hot in early August, just bring those good fronts by the Equinox. Rain would be nice too.

[FunNestlé]

A little friendly moderator advice here. Portastorm is one of our longest running members and he’s very, very knowledgeable too. I can assure you that he has looked at numerous model runs this month, not to mention that he is highly knowledgeable about Texas weather in all seasons including summertime.

He’s also a longtime moderator here. While he isn’t a professional meteorologist, I’d suggest treating him with a good deal of respect (failure to do so with our pro Mets earns a timeout in the corner). Perhaps I’m misreading your tone and intentions here. Healthy, friendly debate is certainly welcome here. But disrespect isn’t, particularly with our pro Mets and likewise, our moderators.

Now back to regular programming.

I'm well aware of that. But it doesn't change any of those facts I presented. All I did was explain them as is, but I apologize if that came off as disrespectful.

not to mention that he is highly knowledgeable about Texas weather in all seasons including summertime.

As am I.

[Ntxw]

I couldn't disagree more with you on this. The pattern we have seen in Texas for the last month with the subtropical high centered over the state is a classic summer weather pattern. The article you reference is mainly focused on the deep trough which has been over the eastern US. Summer and dryness in Texas is standard operating procedure. The only areas which traditionally get breaks may be the Gulf Coast due to tropical influences and the Panhandle once the late summer "monsoon" starts up and they get diurnal convection. Early in summer we sometimes see a northwest flow and MCS systems ride SE through the state but that's about it. Otherwise it is hot and dry in Texas in summer.

No, you aren't reading me right. I've described the details of my position numerous times already on this thread, simply because it can't be stressed enough. The subtropical high being centered over Texas is a "classic summer pattern" only in the sense that it just so happens to be the pattern that has prevailed over the state for many years on average. That I am not disputing.

But the reality is that such a pattern is actually deviant, an aberration from what one would from the area given the latitude and location. Basically, the type of situation that geographer Glenn Trewartha identified as a "problem climate:"
https://books.google.com/books?id=bV3C5 ... es&f=false

The only reason that high pressure ridge influences Texas as much as it does during summer is because of the constant tendency towards troughing in the Eastern US (centered somewhere in the Great Lakes/MS River Valley longitude). That is courtesy of frequent high amplitude jet stream patterns across North America, in turn caused by the deflections of the Westerlies by the Rocky Mountains. If you looked at model runs throughout the month, you would have seen that the ridge only started getting into positions that were subsident over Texas once those troughs started diving deep in the East.

It's part of the same "warm West, cold East" dipole pattern that has been talked about numerous times this past winter by climatologists, and has been quite frequent across the country since Hurricane Ike, responsible for the "hurricane drought". In the case of summer, it means that westerly influence extends farther south into the Eastern US, which causes the high pressure to be shaped in a way that drags dry, subsident air into Texas. That, in turn, signals that such a pattern of dryness over Texas is really more of a spring/fall pattern that just so happens to be in occurrence during summer months. But put in a real summer pattern, when those westerlies are locked up in Canada and replaced with tropical easterlies, and Texas gets just as much rain as Florida, and in many cases even steals the show.

There is more to a summer pattern than just wind flow and jet stream. There are also feedback mechanisms and proximity relative to elevation. Texas is a huge state, and broad brushing a large scale weather pattern for the whole state doesn't do justice to the diversity of biome across the state. This diversity is unique for weather enthusiast. If you wanted a more stable climate the options would be to move to the southeast or far west. Florida is surrounded 3 sides by water, south, east, and west where it is overall a much more humid climate. Comparing apples to oranges.

[weatherdude1108]

If you looked at model runs throughout the month, you would have seen that the ridge only started getting into positions that were subsident over Texas once those troughs started diving deep in the East.

A little friendly moderator advice here. Portastorm is one of our longest running members and he’s very, very knowledgeable too. I can assure you that he has looked at numerous model runs this month, not to mention that he is highly knowledgeable about Texas weather in all seasons including summertime.

He’s also a longtime moderator here. While he isn’t a professional meteorologist, I’d suggest treating him with a good deal of respect (failure to do so with our pro Mets earns a timeout in the corner). Perhaps I’m misreading your tone and intentions here. Healthy, friendly debate is certainly welcome here. But disrespect isn’t, particularly with our pro Mets and likewise, our moderators.

Now back to regular programming.

Portastorm is a great resource for Texas weather, and goes way back before I joined this, which wasn't very long ago. He's awesome! I'm not sure I got a "tone" from this post(?). FunNestlé may be trying to explain it, kind of like a professor would (I am assuming(?)). I can see how it looks disrespectful, but at the same time, it's hard to read between the lines sometimes with what is typed, and how it really is.

This is based on my own experience with emails and texts I get from colleagues and friends/neighbors. I have noticed in some emails and texts that I come across are very short and terse in their typings, with an almost disrespectful tone.

But when I talk with the emailers and texters on the phone, and/or meet them face to face, I get the true tone and body language intended, which in most cases was sincere and not disrespectful, at least in my case, and I got apologies about misunderstandings, etc.

That's why I (and other people) need to be really careful in their word choices and delivery through different mediums, so they don't convey a message that could get wrongly interpreted and send out the wrong message.

Anyway, I've probably typed too much already . But I'm not taking sides here.

I'm not a moderator -- just an observer, playing the diplomat.

Now, back to our regularly schedule Texas Summer Weather, with rain hopefully!

[Texas Snowman]

Very true. As I said, perhaps I was mistaken. We’re all passionate about the weather, that’s why we’re here. And many, including Portastorm and FunNestle, are very knowledgeable about Texas weather even if they don’t always agree on certain ideas.

Now back to summertime in Texas...

[FunNestlé]

There is more to a summer pattern than just wind flow and jet stream. There are also feedback mechanisms and proximity relative to elevation.

I'm well aware of that. But when talking about why patterns even take form in the first place, it comes down mainly to atmospheric dynamics, as well as SST anomalies. While feedback mechanisms certain can contribute (sort of a given, to be honest), they are more of perpetrators rather than initiators. And yes, the geography of North America, with the N-S Rocky mountains and huge landmass at northern latitudes, certainly assists in enhancing the "dry tongue" of subsident air that formulates the ridge over Texas, as described by meteorologist Jerome Namias in the article I linked in my first post on this forum.

Texas is a huge state, and broad brushing a large scale weather pattern for the whole state doesn't do justice to the diversity of biome across the state. This diversity is unique for weather enthusiast.

A given biome/climate often just comes down to how much of a specific weather pattern predominates in an area. A humid subtropical climate and a desert climate can both experience the same circulation patterns (i.e. winter time fronts followed by summer wet seasons), the only difference being that the desert gets far less rain out of it.

If you wanted a more stable climate the options would be to move to the southeast or far west. Florida is surrounded 3 sides by water, south, east, and west where it is overall a much more humid climate. Comparing apples to oranges.

Well aware of that. But the truth is that Texas (and pretty much the entire country in general) would have much more stability in climate if it weren't for the wavy jet stream.

[Haris]

Now back to regular programming.

Portastorm is a great resource for Texas weather, and goes way back before I joined this, which wasn't very long ago. He's awesome! I'm not sure I got a "tone" from this post(?). FunNestlé may be trying to explain it, kind of like a professor would (I am assuming(?)). I can see how it looks disrespectful, but at the same time, it's hard to read between the lines sometimes with what is typed, and how it really is.

This is based on my own experience with emails and texts I get from colleagues and friends/neighbors. I have noticed in some emails and texts that I come across are very short and terse in their typings, with an almost disrespectful tone.

But when I talk with the emailers and texters on the phone, and/or meet them face to face, I get the true tone and body language intended, which in most cases was sincere and not disrespectful, at least in my case, and I got apologies about misunderstandings, etc.

That's why I (and other people) need to be really careful in their word choices and delivery through different mediums, so they don't convey a message that could get wrongly interpreted and send out the wrong message.

Strongly agree... It is tricky and can cause misconceptions. Anyways , I respect everyone on here and it is just amazing how much I have learned over the past 5 months from all the posters on here! It is AMAZING! And I want to thank portastorm for adding me on here. He is definitely a great person along with many others on here. Keep up the great work yall

[FunNestlé]

Now back to regular programming.

Just had to liven up things a bit in these "doldrums."

[Brent]

FW is forecasting low 90s for highs and low 70s for lows early week. That will feel rather pleasant given the recent heat. Past few days dew points up here have been in the 50s and low 60s so actually the 95-100F isn't actually that bad.

I just want a nice cool fall for once, it's been awhile since one of those after top warmest of the past several years. It can be hot in early August, just bring those good fronts by the Equinox. Rain would be nice too.

Indeed I'd gladly trade a hot August for a real fall havent had one since I've been here