Florida Weather

[chaser1]

Yep.... I was fooled and would've bet the farm on the Orlando region getting close to 2" or a good deal more rain during the prior two days. Absolutely amazed that this front will have the support to clear the entire state, if even for only a couple days. Glad to see that drought stricken area's of far south Florida, at least received the heavy dose of rain they needed (minus the severe weather that some of you guys down south could have done without however).

[northjaxpro]

It is beautiful morning and the mercury is at 53.6 degrees at my locale. Just absolutely refreshing for May 1. As I mentioned above, enjoy this beautiful weather the next couple of days. Comfortable temps and lower humidity values is a real bonus for this time of the year for sure.

[NDG]

Yeah beautiful morning indeed, this is how the weather should had been for most of April with mild to cool mornings and warm afternoons, instead my A/C ran all month non stop. My electric bill was almost as high as the hottest month of last summer.
If a subtropical system does indeed form east of us that could mean dry air wrapping around on our, that would be nice to have an extended period of lower dewpoints

[FireRat]

Very glad to report the changes made it to the southern peninsula as well, woohoo!

Morning was 62 degrees and currently 76 with just 35% humidity and clear skies with a north breeze!

[northjaxpro]

It got down to 49.4 degrees at my locale this morning. Perfect, cool weather for early May. What a bonus that Mother Nature has given us this weekend! What a nice reprieve from the heat and humidity! Get out and enjoy it folks this weekend before the heat returns.

[gatorcane]

Wow 49.4F! Very chilly considering how warm April was.

After a gorgeous weekend across the peninsula with fresh NE breezes behind the front, it looks like moisture will be on the increase from the south starting tomorrow as a trough and surface low develops over the Bahamas. NWS office in Miami is indicating some impressive PWAT values for Tues. with the potential for some strong thunderstorms too, mainly for the eastern half of South Florida. Will be interesting to see what kind of impact this low will have on Florida's weather this week. Some of the models are trying to develop this low into a subtropical or tropical system off the east coast of Florida.

[TheStormExpert]

Could be a wet first part of the week here in SE FL! Thanks to the developing area of low pressure to the east and southeast of us in the Bahamas that also has a chance at becoming subtropical in nature off the SE U.S. Coast(as being discussed in Talkin' Tropics).

[psyclone]

a very solid easterly flow should make for a nice week as the atmospheric moisture rebounds. boating will be tough with choppy to rough conditions and a notable rip current hazard on the east coast.

[TheStormExpert]

Also the latest AFD this afternoon from NWS: Miami is very lengthy and interesting!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
252 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)...
LOOKS LIKE THE CRAZY WEATHER OF APRIL WILL BE EXTENDING INTO EARLY
MAY, BUT MORE ON THAT LATER. CURRENTLY, A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THIS HAS INCREASED OUR PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE SURFACE WIND
ALREADY GUSTING TO OVER 20 KNOTS ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE CRAZY WEATHER
POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON MONDAY, A WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF MONDAY NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH THE
SURFACE FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WILL BEGIN TO PULL MOISTURE
BACK TO THE NORTH WITH FORECAST PWAT CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.4"
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND 1.8" MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN REACH SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA DURING TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN ONLY
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PWAT`S
REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA WHILE AT THE SAME TIME INDUCING LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO THE EAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST BAHAMAS.
TEMPERATURES AT THE 500MB LEVEL ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BE NEAR
RECORD COLD FOR EARLY MAY BY TUESDAY MORNING BEING IN THE RANGE OF
-11 TO -12C. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN VERY CLOSE TO THIS SOLUTION
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION AND TIMING OF THE TWO
TROUGHS. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN GOOD MODEL AGGREEEMENT IN SHOWING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
ALL OF THIS ALONG WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL LEAD TO VERY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IN THE EXACT RAINFALL
TOTALS THAT COULD POSSIBLY UNFOLD. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS ALSO BEEN
SHOWING THE DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE TO REMAIN OFFSHORE SO FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS SET UP. HOWEVER, ANY LITTLE SHIFT
TO THE WEST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING ISSUES IS
CERTAINLY THERE.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)...
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE SURFACE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING
HIGH. BY FRIDAY, AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER SOUTH INTO THE AREA DRYING THINGS OUT
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BECOMES VERY SMALL. A MASSIVE
CUT-OFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WHICH WILL
AMPLIFY A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROUGH. THIS WILL PREVENT IT FROM MOVING MUCH AND IT BEGINS TO
MEANDER ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE LATEST 12Z RUN OF THE GFS
ACTUALLY NOW SHOWS THE LOW DRIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA. SO EVEN
THOUGH CURRENT THINKING IS FOR DRIER CONDITIONS, WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

[StormingB81]

AND our local met just said no significant rain or rainfall with the system and will remain mostly dry this week in Orlando and surrounding areas.

[psyclone]

AND our local met just said no significant rain or rainfall with the system and will remain mostly dry this week in Orlando and surrounding areas.

that's probably what will happen. we know how sharp the cutoff typically is on the western side. heavy rain potential is probably nominal for most of us except the east coast...especially southeast fl. of course if this thing eventually comes back to the southwest that could change but that is days away if it ever happens.

[TheStormExpert]

NWS: Miami(South Florida) 5-Day Forecast.

[psyclone]

getting some pretty vigorous thunderstorm development along the seabreeze meet and greet north of tampa bay. over the next couple of hours that collision should yield additional activity east of tampa and eventually east of Sarasota and port charlotte with a general southward movement

[psyclone]

the west coast seabreeze is getting feisty today with strong to severe thunderstorms erupting over the southwest counties (lee & collier)..meanwhile the stage is set for a collision east of Sarasota/brandenton and near I-75 in Hillsborough county a bit later with a brisk west/northwest movement thereafter...mariners should definitely be alert along the coast and over tampa bay as these storms will quickly advance that direction

[NDG]

So has the rainy season been officially declared yet? If not I think there is a good chance of getting declared if not this week next week. The sky looked and felt like our summer rainy season, high dewpoints are forecasted to stay for a while with our daily afternoon thunderstorms to develop somewhere on the Peninsula each day depending on where the seabreeze fronts set up.

[psyclone]

another day of fierce convection on the west coast. before that KTPA reached 94 degrees. big thunderstorm closing in on me right now.

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah I'd say it's beyond official that the famous Rainy Season here in Florida has begun!

Of course with Summer-like weather being present here in South Florida at least for nearly the past month and a half I'd say the rainy season started about mid-April here in S. Florida.

In the foreseeable future though it looks like the thunderstorm activity will be confined mostly to the West Coast and further Inland locations(around Lake-O).

[Hurricane Alexis]

Is a different person doing the NWS Miami discussion? When I read them they just sound very different from previous discussions.

[psyclone]

Yet another hot, humid day followed by a cooling thunderstorm. we usually don't start getting seabreeze driven storms until mid june so this is a real bonus.

[psyclone]

the stage is set for another round of hefty storms along the west coast this evening. liftoff soon.