Texas Spring-2014

[Ntxw]

Amanda omega 140 mph winds that's 25 mph more than it was last night There aren't many storms that intensify that fast.

135kts or 155mph just a hair shy of Cat 5.

EP, 01, 2014052512, , BEST, 0, 117N, 1111W, 135, 932, HU

[Ntxw]

Back on topic, meandering low this weak is going to put down a lot of water. And any given day could have localized flooding especially the deeper into the week. Previously models have projected ridging but it appears it may anchor to our west thus we are on the peripheral. Good region for pop up thunderstorms once the low passes and we may see another weak meandering low on the eastern edge of the ridge. Awhile ago I mentioned how late May and June often sets the tone for the summer, we may be starting to settle into a pattern not dislike other wet summers.

[srainhoutx]

The Global guidance continues to paint a very wet forecast across our Region. The shorter range High Resolution models have done rather poorly as they have initiated the heaviest rainfall too far N. The latest QPF suggest anywhere from 4-6 inches of rainfall may be possible over the next 7 days with isolated higher amounts possible where slow moving training storms develop. The long wave trough and upper low is expected to meander E into Texas on Monday and begin a slow trek SE from N Texas toward Eastern Texas and Western Louisiana by Friday before filling in and finally weakening next Saturday into Sunday. With multiple outflow boundaries present almost daily and repeating Mesoscale Convective Systems as well as the potential for a Mesoscale Convection Vortex situation developing as the upper low warms or become warmed core, the potential for heavy rainfall increases and therefore the Weather Prediction Center has placed a large portion of Central and SE Texas mainly along and N of I-10 in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall.

To further complicate the forecast for the coming work week, Major Hurricane Amanda in the Eastern Pacific is now a CAT 4 and may become CAT 5 later today as it turns N and begins to finally weaken. The latest track suggests Amanda and its deep tropical moisture will move towards the NE and the SW Coast of Mexico by day 5 and could further aggravate and complicate the forecast and QPF amounts. I would not be surprised to see current Flash Flood Watches across West Central Texas and the Southern Edwards Plateau extended eastward into the San Antonio/Austin area later today and possibly shifting E into portions of SE Texas on Memorial Day and continue into Tuesday. Keep an eye to the skies as everyone is enjoying the Holiday weekend and may not be aware of the current weather situation developing.

[Ntxw]

Suspect within each day there will probably be some upgraded risks within the slights

[ravyrn]

That cell west of Del Rio across the border looks intense. Pretty pronounced hook echo and looks to have rotation. I wonder if it'll go tornadic.

[hriverajr]

It has multiple TVS signatures. Lets hope it passes just to the south of my city (Del Rio, TX), as the storms in this location often do.

[aggiecutter]

That cell west of Del Rio across the border looks intense. Pretty pronounced hook echo and looks to have rotation. I wonder if it'll go tornadic.

It has a pretty nice couplet on it:

[Ntxw]

I've picked up 1.54 inches of rain today at the NTX PWC branch. DFW officially recorded 1.75 inches so far.

[Texas Snowman]

Two days ago, Lake Nasworthy was at 50% capacity.

Today it is 100% capacity and the dam is releasing water!!!

[Ntxw]

That is very good news, I'm very happy for them. All of Texas really, this is what the doctor ordered. Those hot and dry summer forecasts may be taking a hit.

[South Texas Storms]

Flash Flood Warnings (green polygons) are in effect for areas west of San Antonio as slow moving thunderstorms are producing heavy rainfall across the region. Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches are possible across the area tonight.



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[weatherdude1108]

Reports from the Austin and San Antonio region watersheds may be benefitting as the hydrological "pumps" are being primed.

One of rivers that feeds Lake Buchanan:
http://hydromet.lcra.org/chron.aspx?snu ... San%20Saba

One of rivers that feeds Lake Travis:
http://hydromet.lcra.org/chron.aspx?snu ... r+at+Llano

Medina Lake watershed:

"FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
954 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014

TXC019-265-325-463-260500-
/O.CON.KEWX.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-140526T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KERR TX-MEDINA TX-UVALDE TX-BANDERA TX-
954 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR
BANDERA...NORTHEASTERN UVALDE...NORTHWESTERN MEDINA AND SOUTHERN KERR
COUNTIES...

AT 946 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS FROM KERRVILLE TO BANDERA TO CONCAN. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE RAINS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WARNING AREA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES BETWEEN
HUNT...LOST MAPLES STATE PARK AND MEDINA. MUCH OF THE RAIN HAS
FALLEN IN THE MEDINA RIVER BASIN AND NEARBY PARTS OF THE SABINAL AND
SOUTH FORK OF THE GUADALUPE BASINS.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WALTONIA...
GARNER STATE PARK AND INGRAM

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. IT IS IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHERE
YOU ARE RELATIVE TO STREAMS...RIVERS...OR CREEKS WHICH CAN BECOME
KILLERS IN HEAVY RAINS. CAMPERS AND HIKERS SHOULD AVOID STREAMS OR
CREEKS.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 2961 9975 2962 9960 2987 9959 3008 9957
3010 9893 2937 9901 2937 9976

$$"

[gboudx]

I've picked up 1.54 inches of rain today at the NTX PWC branch. DFW officially recorded 1.75 inches so far.

Wow really? We got nothing in Rockwall.

[Ntxw]

Wow really? We got nothing in Rockwall.

There was a very localized heavy rain band that moved from NE Tarrant/NW Dallas counties (along and near the airport) up towards Denton/Collin county line anywhere from 0.75-2 inches mid afternoon. 1.88 inches is the final tally for DFW Airport.

[opticsguy]

Far North Dallas (near Addison), 0.5 inches in less than 20 minutes. Nothing since.

[TheProfessor]

Got about 1-1.5 inches here in Southlake yesterday

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Increasing potential for heavy to excessive rainfall starting Tuesday and lasting through much of the week.

Slow moving upper level low pressure system located over the SW US which has been responsible for heavy rainfall across much of the drought plagued west TX this weekend will meander eastward and be located near Sabine Pass by late this week. Deep tropical moisture axis connected to Hurricane Amanda in the eastern Pacific is edging closer to SE TX this morning and as the upper low moves eastward should become situated across the region starting Tuesday.


Thus far slow moving thunderstorm complexes have remained west of our region, but this should change tonight into Tuesday as the moisture axis over central TX moves eastward along with dynamics with the upper level low. The past few days have shown very slow storm motions and cell training in a very moist “tropical” environment which has led to heavy rainfall amounts in a short period of time.

Rainfall Amounts:

Since this system is slow moving and has the potential to produce multiple heavy rainfall episodes over a 24-72 hour period the threat for flooding will be gradually increasing through the week as the ground saturates. The air mass is expected to become nearly saturated and tropical with moisture levels increasing to near +2 SD above normal for late May. This combined with slow storm motions and potential cell training points toward some heavy rainfall amounts.


Amounts will average 2-4 inches across the region with isolated totals significantly higher…possibly as much as 6-8 inches by the end of the week. This is the type of weather set up that can produce a lot of rainfall in a very short period of time. It is nearly impossible to predict where the heaviest rainfall amounts may occur especially when multiple rounds of heavy rains will occur.


Will also need to watch for the current “cold” core upper level system to attempt to transition toward a “warm” core feature as it slowly moves across a very tropical like environment. This transition would change the daily rainfall pattern away from daytime heating induced storms to more nocturnal development near/around the center of the system…or it will begin to behave very much like a dying tropical system.

[South Texas Storms]

Another cluster of showers and thunderstorms is moving eastward across central Texas. Flash flooding is the main threat from these storms.



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[Portastorm]

As of 10:56 am, we have very heavy rain, a lot of lightning/thunder, and skies as dark as night here at the Portastorm Weather Center. Good thing yesterday was the day we did our ribs and brisket.

[weatherdude1108]

Coming down in torrents at the Weatherdude Center with lightning and thunder/gusty winds. Will check rain gauge later. Looks like nighttime out there!