Texas Spring 2017

[Brent]

I was thinking given it's a 10 day forecast it could be Adrian moisture

That's our best shot at a widespread heavy rain.

[Brent]

0z Euro also has a big rain event next week... almost 5 inches of rain at DFW mid-week next week

The 0z GFS wasn't as prolific as the 18z... but has rain over multiple days starting around the same time.

[TheProfessor]

Haven't been keeping track of the weather much over the last week, but I looked at the latest Euro and it looks like we could be in for a good rain event. I'd love to see some tropical rain.

[1900hurricane]

Yep, looks like the deep western trough/EPac tropical cyclone combo could spell a wet medium range, especially with the subtropical jet becoming more active.

[bubba hotep]

Looks like things could get interesting in parts of Texas this afternoon, out near Vernon.

[Brent]

12z Euro again with a big rain event next Wednesday/Thursday and even Friday, almost 5 inches of rain at DFW again

[bubba hotep]

Looks like a tornado watch is coming for parts of Texas. If this was a lazy Saturday, I might have jumped in the car after lunch and headed out that way.



Mesoscale Discussion 0684
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017

Areas affected...portions of the TX Low Rolling Plains...southeast
TX Panhandle...southwest and west-central OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 101914Z - 102015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Convective initiation is expected initially near a triple
point near the Caprock 50 miles northeast of Lubbock. Additional
storms are forecast to develop and intensify to severe levels.
Large to very large hail will be possible with the discrete
supercells. A tornado risk will probably maximize during the 23-02Z
period.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar/satellite imagery indicates initial storm
development is occurring near a triple point 50 miles northeast of
Lubbock on the Caprock. Subjective surface analysis delineates an
outflow boundary from the triple point northeast through southwest
OK. A bulging dryline extends south into the Pecos River Valley. A
reservoir of 64-69 degrees F dewpoints resides east of the dryline
and south of the outflow boundary. Heating into the middle 80s
southwest to the upper 70s farther northeast into parts of central
OK will result in 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and a very unstable boundary
layer. Strong southwesterly mid- to high-level flow associated with
an approaching upper jet streak will strongly favor supercells (some
supercell splitting expected) atop generally modest low-level shear.


Very large CAPE in the hail growth layer (-10 to -30 degrees C) and
ample lofting of hydrometeors imply very large to giant hail (2-3.5
inches in diameter) is possible with the most intense supercells.
The risk for a tornado will probably be most favorable in a corridor
near the modifying outflow boundary. A strengthening in low-level
flow is expected towards the early evening and a corresponding
enlargement in the hodograph is forecast (0-1 km SRH 100-200 m2/s2)
from a minimum in hodograph size around 21Z.

Short-term models suggest isolated to widely scattered supercells
evolving and moving northeast into southwest OK from northwest TX.
Additional more isolated activity is possible farther northeast
along the outflow boundary in OK per models.

..Smith/Guyer.. 05/10/2017

[Yukon Cornelius]

Confirmed Tornado SSE of Childress per Reed Timmer FB.

[Portastorm]

12z Euro again with a big rain event next Wednesday/Thursday and even Friday, almost 5 inches of rain at DFW again

"big rain event" for North Texas, that is. Not so much for those of us in south Texas.

[Cpv17]

12z Euro again with a big rain event next Wednesday/Thursday and even Friday, almost 5 inches of rain at DFW again

"big rain event" for North Texas, that is. Not so much for those of us in south Texas.

Exactly! That's how it's been for over a month now. All the rain is staying north. Since the first week of April here we haven't gotten but maybe half an inch here. We need the jet to dip and a low pressure to dig south deep into Mexico and move across Texas, but that doesn't look to be happening anytime soon. And the subtropical jet is nowhere to be found as far as I'm concerned.

[bubba hotep]

It seems like each run of the Euro EPS just keeps getting wetter and wetter.

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro again with a big rain event next Wednesday/Thursday and even Friday, almost 5 inches of rain at DFW again

"big rain event" for North Texas, that is. Not so much for those of us in south Texas.

Actually the past few runs of the Euro ensemble have been indicating rainfall totals of 2-4 inches over the next 2 weeks. Not much south of IH-10 though.

[Brent]

GFS is also very unsettled starting next week through the end of the run

and the Euro again for the 3rd or 4th run in a row at least with a major rain event in parts of the state end of next week

[Yukon Cornelius]

Finally picked up a little bit of rain out of a hit or miss storm. Looks to be around 1/4". A few miles either side of me didn't seem to get enough to wet the ground so I must have gotten lucky. Every little bit helps.

[srainhoutx]

Thursday morning briefing from Jeff:

Omega block upper air pattern that has been in place for the last week is breaking down allowing a slow moving storm system over the SW US to eject across the plains today into Friday.

Low level moisture has returned to the region below a capping inversion while high level moisture spills across the state from the Pacific on the southeast flank of the upper air storm system over portions of NM and W TX this morning. A surface cool front will progress through TX today and off the coast sometime on Friday. Air mass will likely remain capped today with isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorms late this afternoon with enough surface heating. Overall rain chances look fairly low with the front (20-30%) tonight into early Friday as the main forcing for lift is aimed that the central plains with little to break the cap over our region.

Much drier air mass will filter into the area late Friday with weekend dewpoints falling into the 50’s which will result in overnight lows down into the lower 60’s by Saturday and Sunday mornings. High temperatures will still make the mid 80’s given the rapid heating of the dry air mass and clear skies.

Next Week:
Another upper level storm system drops into the SW US by early next week and once again moisture will begin to return off the western Gulf of Mexico. Will keep rain chances out Monday and maybe Tuesday then begin to raise chances on Wednesday. GFS and ECMWF are not in much agreement on how the upper air pattern will play out next week and just how much rainfall is possible over the region. ECMWF wants to develop a coastal trough and focus heavy rainfall along the coast and possibly into SE TX toward the end of next week while the GFS is mostly dry. Both of these completely opposite solutions appear possible at this time. One other item to keep an eye on is the pool of moisture associated now tropical depression Adrian south of Mexico. If this moisture pool remains in that area as expected for the next several days it could become entrained within the return flow early next week.

[gpsnowman]

Storms are blowing up near Greenville. Another DFW bust?

[Portastorm]

12z Euro again with a big rain event next Wednesday/Thursday and even Friday, almost 5 inches of rain at DFW again

"big rain event" for North Texas, that is. Not so much for those of us in south Texas.

Actually the past few runs of the Euro ensemble have been indicating rainfall totals of 2-4 inches over the next 2 weeks. Not much south of IH-10 though.

I have noticed that the last few Euro operational runs are progressively wetter for south central Texas late next week. But as we know, that is an "eternity" away when it comes to weather and model prediction. Nevertheless, we can hope the trend continues!

[Brent]

Storms are blowing up near Greenville. Another DFW bust?

I had a feeling this would happen. Blew up 5 miles east of me, just like the day the Canton tornadoes happened.

I really hope this rain event next week is legit. The Euro again has the monthly rainfall in a couple of days next Wednesday-Friday. Its been awhile since I've seen the Euro so consistent with a big rain.

[Ralph's Weather]

Sounds like we had a bit of hail mixed in here in downtown Tyler.

[Cpv17]

"big rain event" for North Texas, that is. Not so much for those of us in south Texas.

Actually the past few runs of the Euro ensemble have been indicating rainfall totals of 2-4 inches over the next 2 weeks. Not much south of IH-10 though.

I have noticed that the last few Euro operational runs are progressively wetter for south central Texas late next week. But as we know, that is an "eternity" away when it comes to weather and model prediction. Nevertheless, we can hope the trend continues!

It's definitely been trending south on the models. Hoping it trends down further south to cover areas between Houston & Victoria! Then I'll be a happy camper lol the CPC's forecast today was encouraging to see.