Enhanced severe outlooks/advisories

[Calasanjy]

It seems that at least during the past couple of years that there have been numerous SPC "high risk" convective outlooks issued. Although some bust, most result in at least an isolated tornado event in the area. With the common usage of the high risk designation, shouldn't the SPC upgrade to an even higher risk level (such as an "extreme risk") when an unusually disastrous outbreak is predicted? For example, if atmospheric conditions akin to those seen on April 3, 1974 or February 19, 1884 ("Enigma" outbreak) were to manifest themselves, wouldn't it be appropriate to use an advanced convective risk to designate extreme danger in the covered areas?

I also find some of the current watches and warning language to be too broad. Especially in regard to severe thunderstorm warnings, there is a great difference between a severe thunderstorm with dime-size hail, 55 mph gusts, and moderate rain squalls and one producing golf ball or larger-size hail, 75 mph gusts, and blinding rain squalls. I believe that one of the NWS offices in Minnesota will issue "very severe thunderstorm warnings" for such storms, but no other office uses this to my knowledge. In addition, with the increasingly liberal usage of the designation "tornado emergency" by certain NWS branches, shouldn't there be a universally accepted definition of what constitutes a "tornado emergency"? For example, perhaps it should apply when a tornado is confirmed to be producing damage in a high-density town or urban area. Also, maybe tornado emergencies should be issued separate from an ordinary tornado warning. What are your thoughts?

[Dionne]

Advance notice of an impending tornado would certainly be a nice tool to have....irregardless of the terminology being used. Unfortunately for us in rural south Mississippi the warning system has "glitches" ......which is just another way of saying there is a time delay in getting the information to the public. So basically, the NWS can used any terminology they desire....but if you receive that info when the tornado is on top of you.....it becomes useless.

[brunota2003]

I do not believe that "Tornado Emergency" is overused. Anyone look at the damage that was caused? Not to mention, another reason why those words were probably used is because of the lack of tornadoes, especially during Feb. I've heard statements from some residents saying "Tornadoes arent supposed to happen right now!" and such, so perhaps there was a good reason they used that line?

[CrazyC83]

"Extreme Risk" would require, at least, a 45% tornado risk in the SPC outlooks.

One thing I would do is change the "Extreme Wind Warning" hurricane product (basically, a fake Tornado Warning) to also apply to 110 mph or greater convective winds from derechos as well.

[btangy]

The predictability of large severe weather outbreak events is usually very hard to pin down until the event starts. I would think that adding an additional category to the SPC outlooks would only cause confusion and would not really add much value in terms of alerting the public. High risk is not used very often and when warranted sets things in motion at local WFOs (extra staff, etc.) and gets the alert out to local media reasonably well, IMO.

[Beam]

The predictability of large severe weather outbreak events is usually very hard to pin down until the event starts. I would think that adding an additional category to the SPC outlooks would only cause confusion and would not really add much value in terms of alerting the public. High risk is not used very often and when warranted sets things in motion at local WFOs (extra staff, etc.) and gets the alert out to local media reasonably well, IMO.

Agreed. We only see, on average, a couple of high risk areas per year, and while a few have busted in the past, the usual outcome is a large outbreak. That's really the point of the high-risk area: to essentially say "Hey folks, something wicked this way comes. No, seriously, this is gonna be bad news."

Events such as the Super Outbreak are so rare and hard to predict that an extra risk category would be pointless, not to mention it would subjugate the "High" category. making it seem less important. Oh, and if they issue this "Extreme Risk" and hype it up, and then it busts? Yeah, good luck getting the public to take you seriously next time. It's just a bad idea all around.

As for the "Tornado Emergency" bulletin, I think each office already does a fine job of using it where appropriate. Also, given the extremely time-sensitive nature of such a message, you can't bother making sure specific conditions have been met to warrant its broadcast. If there's a tornado in or approaching a population center, you don't have time to screw around.

I agree with Crazy however, it would be nice if the Extreme Wind Warning was expanded to cover all non-tornadic events. I think any Thunderstorm/Derecho event producing winds or wind gusts of 100+ mph should warrant something other than your garden-variety Severe Thunderstorm Warning.

[wall_cloud]

Advance notice of an impending tornado would certainly be a nice tool to have....irregardless of the terminology being used. Unfortunately for us in rural south Mississippi the warning system has "glitches" ......which is just another way of saying there is a time delay in getting the information to the public. So basically, the NWS can used any terminology they desire....but if you receive that info when the tornado is on top of you.....it becomes useless.

what would you say the glitch is? Mississippi (even the rural areas) has great NOAA weather radio coverage. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr/states/mississippi.html

How should you get the info? The NWS is not going to call you personally. There simply isn't the staffing or time to do such a thing. I would guess that there will eventually be a system that will call your phone with some type of a message about a warning/watch but that isn't available (at least on a national scale) at this time. The media has their own methods of dissimination of a watch/warning and the web is a powerful too for most. Ever use a radar, emails/texts from media outlets, monitor IEM chat? the problem is that most people aren't proactive. They wait for notification to come to them. The information is available. I'll be happy to help you out if you aren't familiar with some of these options. Just let me know via PM.

[HarlequinBoy]

I think some areas do have a system where your phone is called with an automated message. I think Coahoma County south of here does that.

I think the High Risk/PDS Watch/Tornado Emergency policy is really necessary and helpful. The only change I would make is introduce something for particularly severe non-tornado thunderstorms.