Easter Miracle for DFW area?????

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just went back and checked an old post on the busted severe weather thread.

Both FWD and HGX discusions suggesting instability will be reduced by lack of mid-level dry air, and this will be more of a flooding threat.


The Dallas sounding isn't super-bad tornado wise, but with that combination of shear and CAPE, at least isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out.


But with this much shear/helicity Tuesday morning around HOU, any discrete cell has an excellent chance of being tornadic, in my amateur opinion.





12Z GFS shows light wintry precip in North Texas next weekend,but I'll hold off on that until the severe wx/flood threat has passed.

New GFS still suggests some wintry precip for parts of North Texas on Easter.

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z Canadian plays the grinch, keeping cold air and precip far apart.

[somethingfunny]

Correction: GFS predicted snow on St. Patricks Day, not Easter!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Correction: GFS predicted snow on St. Patricks Day, not Easter!

The GFS predicts snow for Dallas on all major holidays, except Labor Day.

[Ed Mahmoud]

18Z GFS is a little slower, but still suggests some winter precip Sunday near/North of DFW.

[Ed Mahmoud]

New 0Z WRF has 850 mb freezing line heading South from Red River at tau=84 hours, while precip approaches DFW from the West.



Just sayin...

[Ed Mahmoud]

0Z Canadian still keeps precip and cold air apart (but a nice Northeast snow that could cancel school in Massapequa, NY on Tuesday) in DFW area.

More tragically, the 0Z GFS seems to have backed off a miracle.


Note also GFS doesn't cancel school on Long Island on Tuesday.


Euro looks half way in between, and may cancel school Tuesday.