Severe weather outbreak? March 30-31

[CrazyC83]

The SPC is somewhat downplaying it right now, but the models show screaming shear, considerable CAPE (especially on the 30th) and incredible helicity (especially on the 31st)...

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 280906
SPC AC 280906

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0406 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2008

VALID 311200Z - 051200Z

...SRN PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EWD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...AND EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOISTURE RETURN SUGGESTS MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS A LARGE WARM SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
/DAY 4/. MODEL FORECASTS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF
THE TROUGH SUGGESTING A MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IN
RESPONSE...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT ACROSS THE REGION.

BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
SUGGESTING UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH CONCERNING THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
AS A RESULT...WILL NOT OUTLOOK ANY SEVERE WEATHER AREAS FOR DAY 5 TO
8 ATTM.

..BROYLES.. 03/28/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z WRF shows only widely isolated storms Sunday South of the Red River, but if anything does go, the Wichita Falls sounding is pretty impressive.

[CrazyC83]

2,700 CAPE will sure fire them off in a hurry! How much will the cap hold up though?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hatched 30% over much of Oklahoma, although just a SLIGHT RISK for Oklahoma at this point. Maybe a MODERATE RISK tomorrow?

Relevant snip from SWODY2

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE NRN PART
OF THE SRN PLAINS. MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A LARGE AREA
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE WEST. THIS COMBINED WITH A STEADILY INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE EVENING AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR
PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. A FEW STRONG
AND/OR LONG-LIVED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR WITH PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS
THAT MOVE PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. THE CORRIDOR FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO SET UP FROM WRN AND CNTRL OK
NEWD INTO SE KS WITH THE THREAT INCREASING DURING THE EVENING AND
PERSISTENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

[CrazyC83]

That is very strong wording...maybe a MDT at the afternoon update even?

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 290733

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY...

...OZARK PLATEAU/SRN PLAINS AND LOWER OH VALLEY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY REGION. A LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD FROM OK NEWD
ACROSS MO INTO IL. THIS WILL AFFECT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PARTS OF
THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F FROM NE TX NEWD INTO SW MO SUGGESTING
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER A LARGE AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONG AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WHICH COMBINED WITH AN
UNCAPPED AIRMASS ACROSS MOST OF THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD PROMOTE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY.

CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...MODEL FORECASTS EJECT A 60 TO 70
KT MID-LEVEL JET EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP TO CREATE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS
THE REGION. THE STRONG SHEAR AND AMOUNT OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SUGGESTS A SQUALL-LINE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NRN MO SWWD INTO
SE KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
EMBEDDED IN THE LINE WITH MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS ERN OK AND WRN AR WHERE STORM COVERAGE MAY BE SLIGHTLY
LESS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE QUITE STRONG AND A TORNADO
THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND
OZARK PLATEAU. IN ADDITION...THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY BECOME
ENHANCED DURING THE EVENING DUE TO VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES
AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY FORECAST
ALSO SUGGESTS THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AS THE SQUALL-LINE MOVES INTO THE ERN PART OF THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA.

..BROYLES.. 03/29/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1507Z (11:07AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 291725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN OK AND VICINITY NEWD
INTO NRN MO AND ADJACENT AREAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE/AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED DAY 2...AS LARGE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. DIGS/MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES/TOWARD THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...SLY FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CONUS AND
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION...S OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO
EXTEND FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES/SRN KS EWD ACROSS MO INTO IL.
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...A LEE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...WHICH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT ENEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN OK AND
INTO ERN KS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...PARTS OF OK/ERN KS/MO AND VICINITY...
A WARMING/MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD...AS PERSISTENT SLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE S
CENTRAL CONUS AHEAD OF WRN UPPER TROUGH. WHILE STEEP LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THIS REGION FROM THE W/SW...ASSOCIATED CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY WARM SECTOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON.

BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES OR ADJACENT WRN
OK...WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /1500 TO 2000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER
CAPE/. MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE EVENING
NEAR AND N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...AS LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. THIS
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ONSET OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.

WITH MODERATE /NEAR 40 KT/ WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO PERSIST
FROM AFTERNOON ONWARD...INCREASINGLY-FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS IS FORECAST AS SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON -- AND PARTICULARLY AFTER SUNSET. GIVEN DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY EXPECTED...LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY -- PARTICULARLY
WITHIN A ZONE FROM SWRN OK NEWD ACROSS S CENTRAL AND SERN KS.
LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AS WILL A FEW
TORNADOES -- PARTICULARLY DURING THE EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS INCREASING THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND A NEWD SHIFT OF THE STRONGER
WARM ADVECTION INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION. WITH A TENDENCY
FOR MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH NEWD EXTENT...PRIMARY THREAT
ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD BE HAIL.

..GOSS.. 03/29/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1845Z (2:45PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Ed Mahmoud]

NWS Tulsa AFD relevant snip

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON
MONDAY AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS/JET STREAK SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE EXACT TIMING OF
SURFACE FEATURES AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE MORNING PRECIP/CLOUDS HAVE
ON SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS DRY LINE PUSHES INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA MONDAY AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE
WEATHER IS LIKELY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF DRY LINE/COLD
FRONT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING THE SEVERE THREAT ALONG
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AS BOTH GFS/NAM MODELS HINT THAT THE MAIN
CONVECTION MAY TRY TO SHIFT EAST BY THAT TIME WITH THE STRONGER
FORCING/DYNAMICS...STAY TUNED.

[Bunkertor]

2,700 CAPE will sure fire them off in a hurry! How much will the cap hold up though?

With 2700 CAPE nearly nothing.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Monday late afternoon Tulsa- impressive shear, decent instability



12Z WRF shows no precip tomorrow near Wichita Falls. I'm guessing because the mid-levels are so dry, they'd evaporate any parcels trying to rise. But look at the forecast instability and shear, if a storm could pop.

[CrazyC83]

Today's threat has decreased some, and it looks like a late one too:

SPC AC 300554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEARING THE CA COAST
/AND SEVERAL LEAD IMPULSES/ TRANSITION EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL GRADUALLY TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...WITH THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE SHARPENING ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER INTO MO/IL.

...OK/NORTH TX INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND MO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...
WITH A RELATIVELY MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TX THIS EVENING...AS EVIDENCED BY UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND A 15.1 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIO SAMPLED VIA
CORPUS CHRISTI 00Z RAOB...60S F DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD INTO OK/SOUTHERN KS/SOUTHERN MO THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE
LATER ARRIVAL OF LARGE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT
FALLS...THE LIKLIHOOD/EXTENT OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED
SEVERE RISK IS QUITE QUESTIONABLE BEFORE DARK. A MORE LIKELY SEVERE
RISK WITH GREATER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSOURI
VALLEY REGION.

INITIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...IN SPITE OF WEAK LARGE
SCALE FORCING...THE COMBINATION OF MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE
/ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE INTERSECTION/ AND/OR
STRONG HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS BEFORE DARK ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KS/WESTERN OK AND
PERHAPS NORTHWEST TX. GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY AND
MODERATE DEEP LAYER/LOW LEVEL SHEAR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...THESE
STORMS WOULD CONDITIONALLY HAVE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES. PROVIDED DEVELOPMENT...THESE STORMS COULD POSE A SEVERE
THREAT WELL THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH RELATIVELY RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND THE LATE NIGHT APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
OFFSETTING A TENDENCY FOR NOCTURNAL DECOUPLING/SURFACE INHIBITION.

OTHERWISE...THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
SEVERE RISK WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG/NORTH OF THE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NORTHWEST OK INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
AND MO DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AMPLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR/MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THE GREATEST
RISK WILL LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE/TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE FRONT WITHIN A HIGHER SRH ENVIRONMENT.

...WEST TX...
WITH SOUTH EXTENT...THE SEVERE RISK APPEARS VERY CONDITIONAL ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AMPLE
INSOLATION/HEATING MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A ROGUE SUPERCELL/SEVERE
THREAT BEFORE SUNSET. WITH THE DRYLINE LIKELY TO RETREAT THIS
EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE ONSET OF WAKE LARGE SCALE HEIGHT
FALLS...A SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AS WELL.

..GUYER/SMITH.. 03/30/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1235Z (8:35AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

Tomorrow, on the other hand:

SPC AC 300559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...OZARK
PLATEAU...MID MO VALLEY...

...OZARK PLATEAU/SRN PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE
ROCKIES BY MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY BY
MONDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU DURING THE DAY WITH A SFC LOW MOVING
EWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. THE GFS AND NAMKF MODEL FORECASTS ARE
IN AGREEMENT DEVELOPING AN MCS WITH PRIMARILY ELEVATED CONVECTION
ONGOING 12Z MONDAY IN NEB AND IA. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE
ONGOING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN OK AND KS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE
LARGELY UNDISTURBED ACROSS OK...ERN KS AND WRN MO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE DESTABILIZATION OVER A LARGE AREA BY
MIDDAY SUGGESTING A RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL
TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO EJECT A 60 TO 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET ENEWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
TO CREATE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR MONDAYS EVENT IS STORM MODE. SFC WINDS
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY VEERED AHEAD OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WHICH WOULD FAVOR SQUALL-LINE
DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE NAMKF SOLUTION WHICH DEVELOPS
A LINEAR MCS FROM NRN MO EXTENDING SWWD INTO SE KS AND NE OK LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF WIND DAMAGE WITH SCATTERED LARGE
HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS THE SQUALL-LINE MOVES SEWD INTO THE MID-MS
VALLEY DURING THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
WOULD BE IN ERN OK AND NW AR WHERE THE SQUALL-LINE MAY HAVE GAPS AND
STORM COVERAGE MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS. IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOP
ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE SQUALL-LINE...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG
TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA FROM SPRINGFIELD MO SWD TO
NEAR FORT SMITH AR AND WWD TO THE VICINITY OF TULSA OK. ONCE
CERTAINTY INCREASES CONCERNING STORM MODE AND SQUALL-LINE
DEVELOPMENT...AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK MAY BECOME NECESSARY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

FURTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS NE TX...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE
IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTH AND
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED FROM THE RED RIVER SWD.
STILL...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA AT 00Z TUESDAY SUGGEST
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AND SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT AND/OR LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE.

..BROYLES.. 03/30/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1236Z (8:36AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

This looks to be one of those SPC nightmares - high shear, low instability...which means anything can be tornadic, but can they get to the surface? Today it might be difficult, but tomorrow could very well be a surprise...

SPC AC 301631

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO IA/MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF TX/LA...

...PLAINS STATES...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES...WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING
THROUGH TROUGH INTO PARTS OF CO/NM/AZ. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVE
FEATURES IS NOW OVER WESTERN CO/NM AND WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS EVENING. MODELS AND TIMING OF SATELLITE FEATURES
SUGGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL NOT
AFFECT MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER KS/OK UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER DARK.
THIS LESSENS CONFIDENCE THAT MANY STORMS CAN BREACH CAPPING
INVERSION AND MAY LIMIT COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS.
NEVERTHELESS...IT APPEARS THERE IS A RISK OF SUPERCELLS AND
ASSOCIATED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER A PORTION OF
NORTHWEST OK AND SOUTHERN KS THIS EVENING.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE DRYLINE WILL BE BECOME SHARPLY
DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN OK. MLCAPE VALUES ALONG AND
EAST OF DRYLINE WILL EXCEED 2000 J/KG DUE TO POCKETS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND INCREASING MOISTURE. HOWEVER...A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE THREAT TO IMMEDIATE DRYLINE AREA
WHERE DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN DRY AIR WILL HELP TO DEEPEN
MIXING AND ELIMINATE CAP. SEVERAL MODEL RUNS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN OK...MAINLY AFTER
00Z. IF THIS CAN OCCUR...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFTER DARK...APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG SAGGING
COLD FRONT WILL AID IN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS NEAR THE KS/OK
BORDER. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO POSE A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER AREA OF SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS AND PROMOTES THUNDERSTORMS.
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS.

FINALLY...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF
NORTHERN MO AND FAR SOUTHERN IA. HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT IN
THIS REGION AS WELL.

...TX/LA...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS OVER FAR EAST TX AND WESTERN LA.
THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME
HEATING DESTABILIZES AIR MASS. STRONGER CELLS IN THIS AREA WILL
POSE A THREAT OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

..HART/JEWELL.. 03/30/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1643Z (12:43PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 301730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NERN QUARTER OF TX
NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO
FLATTEN WITH TIME THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS LEAD SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES ENEWD ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...AND THEN ACROSS
THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
STATES LATE.

AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY LOW -- ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LEAD SHORT-WAVE
FEATURE -- SHOULD MOVE FROM KS NEWD ACROSS NRN MO/SERN IA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN ON NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TRAILING SURFACE FRONT WILL
PROGRESS SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
LOW...MOVING FROM NWRN MO/SERN KS/NRN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON TO A
POSITION FROM ROUGHLY LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS INDIANA/SRN IL/SERN MO/AR
AND INTO CENTRAL TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...NERN TX NNEWD ACROSS MO/IL/WRN INDIANA...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...MAINLY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST AND
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION NEAR
AND N OF SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE.

MEANWHILE...WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS SE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN FROM S-N WITH TIME...WHICH
IN CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INVOF THE FRONT BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...FROM SRN
IA/MO/ERN KS SWWD ACROSS OK AND INTO N TX. THE CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE/SPREAD EWD WITH TIME AS THE FRONT ADVANCES...EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION/MID MS AND LOWER OH
VALLEYS.

STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE A COMBINATION OF LINEAR AND CELLULAR --
WITH LINEAR MODE EXPECTED TO BECOME DOMINANT OVERNIGHT AS FRONT
STRENGTHENS/ADVANCES EWD/SEWD. WITH A STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD
-- INCLUDING 50 TO 70 KT WLY/SWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS -- EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR ABOVE 40 TO 60 KT SSWLY FLOW AT LOW
LEVELS...SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINE/LINE
SEGMENTS WILL EXIST. THUS...EXPECT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. IN ADDITION...DEGREE OF SHEAR
ANTICIPATED WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TORNADOES. GREATEST TORNADO
THREAT MAY EXIST ACROSS ERN OK AND VICINITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHERE MORE SLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND FIELD MAY
EXIST INVOF A SECONDARY LOW EXPECTED OVER OK. SEVERE THREAT WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS STORMS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 03/30/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1748Z (1:48PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Ed Mahmoud]

Radar indicated tornado in Sabine County, Texas.

[Ed Mahmoud]

TORNADO WARNING
LAC085-TXC403-302200-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0019.080330T2120Z-080330T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
420 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN SABINE COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
SABINE PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 418 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ZWOLLE...OR ABOUT 29 MILES NORTH OF TOLEDO BEND DAM...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ZWOLLE BY 430 PM CDT...

[Ed Mahmoud]

TORNADO WARNING
LAC069-127-310000-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0023.080330T2312Z-080331T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
612 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WINN PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WINNFIELD...
CENTRAL NATCHITOCHES PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 609 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 25 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WINNFIELD...OR NEAR NATCHITOCHES...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WINNFIELD BY 645 PM CDT...

DO NOT USE YOUR CAR TO TRY TO OUTRUN A TORNADO. CARS ARE EASILY
TOSSED AROUND BY TORNADO WINDS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN THE PATH OF A
TORNADO...LEAVE THE CAR AND GO TO A STRONG BUILDING. IF NO SAFE
STRUCTURE IS NEARBY...SEEK SHELTER IN A DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER
YOUR HEAD.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3165 9306 3183 9312 3208 9245 3183 9244
3180 9257 3181 9261 3178 9262 3171 9288
3171 9294 3168 9296
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 255DEG 35KT 3177 9298

$$

VII




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORNADO WARNING
LAC115-302345-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0011.080330T2310Z-080330T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
610 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL VERNON PARISH IN WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES SLAGLE...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 603 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 12 MILES
NORTHWEST OF SLAGLE...OR ABOUT 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF ANACOCO...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 23 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SLAGLE BY 630 PM CDT...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE...SEEK
SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR
ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND
ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3137 9315 3127 9287 3107 9301 3125 9332
3138 9324 3137 9317
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 301DEG 20KT 3131 9322

$$

KK





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORNADO WARNING
LAC069-085-302345-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0022.080330T2255Z-080330T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
555 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL NATCHITOCHES PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
EAST CENTRAL SABINE PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 552 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MOUNT
CARMEL...OR ABOUT 12 MILES NORTH OF ANACOCO...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
KISATCHIE BY 600 PM CDT...
BELLWOOD BY 610 PM CDT...

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3133 9342 3151 9346 3158 9297 3137 9295
3135 9321 3136 9322 3136 9336 3134 9339
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 259DEG 54KT 3144 9332

$$

VII





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Ed Mahmoud]

Possible tornado approaching hometown of corrupt communist former governor (and FDR supporter, obviously) of Louisiana. I have been in Winn Parish on US 84...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
648 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

LAC127-310000-
/O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-080331T0000Z/
WINN LA-
648 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR WINN
PARISH...

AT 643 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
WINNFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
8 MILES SOUTH OF RINGWOOD BY 655 PM CDT...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

[Ed Mahmoud]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
902 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 945 PM CDT

* AT 902 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES WEST
OF FORT COBB RESERVOIR...NEAR ALFALFA MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ALBERT AND FORT COBB RESERVOIR.

TAKE COVER NOW. LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. IF POSSIBLE...MOVE
TO A BASEMENT OR STORM SHELTER. OTHERWISE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR
HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND OUTSIDE
WALLS.

Radar loop

[RL3AO]

Nice looking hook.