Disturbance moving into the Gulf

[Duddy]

Looks pretty

At this point I'll take ANYTHING!

[boca]

Its a shortwave which is supposed to lift out NE to the mid Atlantic states by tomorrow.I wish it would head east to Florida to ease the drought.

[RL3AO]

If it can deal with the 50-65kt shear and the 24C SST, then it might have a shot.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It is a piece of the big Southwestern positive tilt trough (that is eventually supposed to cut off a low per area forecast discussions that will retrograde to the Baja) interacting with a frontal boundary in the Gulf.


It'll be onshore in Lousiana, Mississippi, and Alabama later today, into tomorrow.


6Z GFS keeps in excess of 20 meters/second (over 40 knots) deep shear over the Gulf the next week, so I'm not too concerned.

It may slow down the slow creep of the 26ºC SST isotherm up the Texas coast, however.


But I do think blob watching, even hopeless blob watching, has more potential for an interesting thread than the "The 18Z GFS at 276 hours has a tropical depression in the Caribbean" type thread.


More pretty pictures can be posted.

[Duddy]

Yeah! I LIVE for blob watching!

Anyone know if the NHC is hiring professional blob watchers?

[StormspinnerD2]

This isn't even a blob. It's a developing cold front.

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ACROSS MEXICO AND S TEXAS INTO
THE W GULF. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW CONUS SUPPORTS COLD
FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE GULF NEAR ATCHAFALAYA BAY LOUISIANA AND
EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW GULF INLAND S OF BROWNSVILLE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW GULF AS FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM NEAR 26N94W TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO AND IS AIDING IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS WELL. THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY
15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF AHEAD OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE W ATLC
WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE
GULF IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER E OF 85W. THE FRONT CURRENTLY IN
THE NW GULF IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO NEAR
27N86W BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND BECOME STATIONARY WEAKENING ON
SATURDAY.

A word of advice - when blob-watching, make sure it's actually a blob and not something clearly non-tropical in nature. This is sad.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Well, a "blob" is an area of convection. In this case it's of non-tropical nature, but it's still a blob. If anyone wants to follow it, go ahead. But don't expect much to happen.

[Ed Mahmoud]

This isn't even a blob. It's a developing cold front.

Its both, a floor wax and a dessert topping!


A linear shaped blob isn't the best kind. Round blobs at least resemble tropical cyclones, and a round blob with a circulation at some level is even better.

[boca]

This isn't even a blob. It's a developing cold front.

Its both, a floor wax and a dessert topping!


A linear shaped blob isn't the best kind. Round blobs at least resemble tropical cyclones, and a round blob with a circulation at some level is even better.

It looks like mangled apple pie.

[tolakram]

I'm sitting in Gulf Shores Alabama, our last day, in the rain. Of course that blob is heading right for us.

[HURAKAN]

Of course that blob is heading right for us.

Run, run for your life!!!

[tolakram]

We're on the third floor, we're gonna ride it out!!!! If it wasn't for the lightning I would be on the beach watching the surf.

[Cyclone1]

We're on the third floor, we're gonna ride it out!!!! If it wasn't for the lightning I would be on the beach watching the surf.

Wanna trade weather conditions?

I need some rain, regardless of how much lightning it comes with.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Judging by reports at DW Hooks and Houston-Intercontinental, and radar totals, I think all the fun and games of the last 3 days dropped less than an inch of rain on my lawn, and it has already been a very dry Spring.

And the 0Z ECMWF shows the Florida ridge expanding to include South Texas next weekend.

By 240 hours, it shows the ridge moving West, with a possible weakness over Florida, with the ridge centered in the Gulf, and extending up the Mississippi Valley. Almost looks, with deep troughs East and West, and a big ridge poking up the middle, that the forecast rex block may become an omega block.

[Category 5]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_front

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_sheer

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May

[tolakram]

I don't know which is more sad. People having fun watching a cold front or people believing the people watching the cold front think it's something more.

[Category 5]

I don't know which is more sad. People having fun watching a cold front or people believing the people watching the cold front think it's something more.

Seriously, theres activity in the WPAC if you wanna track a tropical system.

[feederband]

In florida we track clouds...Nothing else to do......

[Ed Mahmoud]

:roll:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_front

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_sheer

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May

I think they used the wrong homonym of "shear" in that url.