South Texas Drought Watch

[Ed Mahmoud]

I see the 'bear watch' thread on a single line in a single area forecast discussion, with little to suggest Texas will be visited by tropical cyclones anytime soon.

6Z GFS MOS shows 0.10 inches of rain predicted at IAH during the next two weeks, GLS had 0.02 inches of rain for all of May.

Texas South of I-10 is in a moderate to severe drought, with no signs of relief. That is the bear that needs watching.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Snip from NWS HGX AFD

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING AND THIS
WILL YIELD WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS AND HIGHER DAYTIME HEAT
INDEX VALUES. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 100 AND 106 DEGREES. LOW
LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES MID- WEEK. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME A BIT
BREEZY WED/THU WITH NOCTURNAL CLOUDINESS. THIS SHOULD KEEP MIN
TEMPS QUITE WARM THIS WEEK. THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT ON THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ANOTHER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RETROGRADES INTO TEXAS NEXT WEEKEND SO THE
HEAT SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
GFS BRINGS AN UPPER LOW TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS DON`T REALLY SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION AND THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE RIDGE IN PLACE SHUNTING THE UPPER LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH.
PREFER THE ECMWF FOR NOW. THE AREA COULD REALLY USE THE RAIN. GLS
HAS NOT RECEIVED RAIN IN 17 DAYS AND THE LAST TIME RAINFALL
TALLIED A TENTH OF AN INCH OR GREATER IN 24 HOURS WAS BACK ON
APRIL 27TH. 43

[gboudx]

My family down south of New Orleans tell me it's been dry down there as well. Up here, we got meaningful rainfall last Tuesday when an MCS held together crossing the Red River.

[Ptarmigan]

I don't like it one bit.

[Ed Mahmoud]

18Z GFS predicts 0.13 inches of rain next Saturday, and 0.06 inches of rain on Sunday, but generally predicts a dry week ahead.