Severe weather outbreak? February 18 - Southeast
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CrazyC83
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- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
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Severe weather outbreak? February 18 - Southeast
I started a new thread since we are up to a Moderate Risk. Although the wind may be a greater threat.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SPC AC 181615
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM CST WED FEB 18 2009
VALID 181630Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF LA...MS...AL...GA
AND THE FL PANHANDLE...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM LA INTO PARTS OF TN...KY...GA..NRN FL AND THE S ATLANTIC CST...
...SYNOPSIS...
FAST WSW FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE S CNTRL AND SE U.S. TODAY/
TONIGHT...ON SRN FRINGE OF NRN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING SE ACROSS
THE UPR GRT LKS/MID MS VLY. S OF THE TROUGH...EXISTING SRN BRANCH
JET...NOW EXTENDING FROM NM TO AR...WILL DEVELOP ESEWD. THIS WILL
ENHANCE MID LVL FLOW OVER THE SERN STATES TODAY...WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.
AT THE SFC...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM IMPULSE SHOULD TRACK NE
TO NEAR LK HURON THIS EVE AS TRAILING COLD FRONT CONSOLIDATES AND
ACCELERATES SE ACROSS THE OH...TN...AND LWR MS VLYS. LARGE SURFACE
LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO SWRN ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD THRU GULF
STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AREA OF CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT FROM WRN KY SWWD INTO NRN MS PROVIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW.
...TN VLY TO CNTRL GULF CST/GA/N FL...
REF MCD #119
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SVR STORMS THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND CONFLUENCE ZONE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD RAPIDLY NEWD THRU GULF STATES
INTO TN VALLEY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. VERY STRONG WESTERLIES
OVERLAY THE RETURNING MOISTURE WHICH COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY COLD
MID LEVEL TEMPS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SURFACE BASED
STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF CONFLUENCE ZONE. WITH MLCAPES
RISING TO 1000 J/KG WITH HEATING SPREADING EWD ACROSS MS INTO AL
COUPLED WITH STRONG SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN
NUMBER AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND EXTENDING FURTHER S
THRU ERN MS AND AL THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE HAIL/WIND WILL INITIALLY
BE THE CONCERN GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...INCREASING THREAT OF
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL DEVELOP AS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
SPREAD EWD DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE VERY STRONG SHEAR
PROFILES CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND TN VALLEY.
AS THE COLD FRONT CATCHES UP WITH ONGOING STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON A MORE LINEAR MODE IS LIKELY INCREASING THE THREAT OF AN
ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE AND WIND DAMAGE. IN ADDITION ANY STORM AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE POTENTIALLY A SUPERCELL. GIVEN THE VERY
STRONG SHEAR...TORNADOS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL WITH
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO FROM CENTRAL AL S AND SE INTO
SWRN GA/FL PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DIMINISH UPON
ENCOUNTERING LESS FAVORABLE LOW LVL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN THE
SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS...THOSE THAT FORM ALONG PRE-FRONTAL
CONFLUENCE BAND COULD STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE EVE AS /1/ MORE
SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD REGION AND /2/ LOW LVL MOISTURE
INFLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG THE CNTRL/ERN GULF CST. SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD MOVE/DEVELOP E ACROSS CNTRL/SRN GA AND N FL GIVEN
DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW.
..HALES.. 02/18/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1635Z (11:35AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM CST WED FEB 18 2009
VALID 181630Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF LA...MS...AL...GA
AND THE FL PANHANDLE...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM LA INTO PARTS OF TN...KY...GA..NRN FL AND THE S ATLANTIC CST...
...SYNOPSIS...
FAST WSW FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE S CNTRL AND SE U.S. TODAY/
TONIGHT...ON SRN FRINGE OF NRN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING SE ACROSS
THE UPR GRT LKS/MID MS VLY. S OF THE TROUGH...EXISTING SRN BRANCH
JET...NOW EXTENDING FROM NM TO AR...WILL DEVELOP ESEWD. THIS WILL
ENHANCE MID LVL FLOW OVER THE SERN STATES TODAY...WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.
AT THE SFC...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM IMPULSE SHOULD TRACK NE
TO NEAR LK HURON THIS EVE AS TRAILING COLD FRONT CONSOLIDATES AND
ACCELERATES SE ACROSS THE OH...TN...AND LWR MS VLYS. LARGE SURFACE
LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO SWRN ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD THRU GULF
STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AREA OF CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT FROM WRN KY SWWD INTO NRN MS PROVIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW.
...TN VLY TO CNTRL GULF CST/GA/N FL...
REF MCD #119
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SVR STORMS THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND CONFLUENCE ZONE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD RAPIDLY NEWD THRU GULF STATES
INTO TN VALLEY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. VERY STRONG WESTERLIES
OVERLAY THE RETURNING MOISTURE WHICH COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY COLD
MID LEVEL TEMPS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SURFACE BASED
STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF CONFLUENCE ZONE. WITH MLCAPES
RISING TO 1000 J/KG WITH HEATING SPREADING EWD ACROSS MS INTO AL
COUPLED WITH STRONG SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN
NUMBER AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND EXTENDING FURTHER S
THRU ERN MS AND AL THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE HAIL/WIND WILL INITIALLY
BE THE CONCERN GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...INCREASING THREAT OF
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL DEVELOP AS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
SPREAD EWD DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE VERY STRONG SHEAR
PROFILES CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND TN VALLEY.
AS THE COLD FRONT CATCHES UP WITH ONGOING STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON A MORE LINEAR MODE IS LIKELY INCREASING THE THREAT OF AN
ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE AND WIND DAMAGE. IN ADDITION ANY STORM AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE POTENTIALLY A SUPERCELL. GIVEN THE VERY
STRONG SHEAR...TORNADOS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL WITH
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO FROM CENTRAL AL S AND SE INTO
SWRN GA/FL PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DIMINISH UPON
ENCOUNTERING LESS FAVORABLE LOW LVL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN THE
SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS...THOSE THAT FORM ALONG PRE-FRONTAL
CONFLUENCE BAND COULD STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE EVE AS /1/ MORE
SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD REGION AND /2/ LOW LVL MOISTURE
INFLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG THE CNTRL/ERN GULF CST. SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD MOVE/DEVELOP E ACROSS CNTRL/SRN GA AND N FL GIVEN
DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW.
..HALES.. 02/18/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1635Z (11:35AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0119
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0953 AM CST WED FEB 18 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL KY INTO MIDDLE TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 181553Z - 181730Z
THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR A WW.
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE DEEPENING CUMULUS/TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IN SHORT WSW-ENE ORIENTED BANDS OVER WRN KY
INTO NWRN TN AS OF 1540Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF
SURFACE COLD FRONT WITHIN A ZONE OF FAIRLY RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING/MOISTENING PER 3-HR CHANGE FIELDS. MOREOVER...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA IS ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF A BAND OF
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH IL/IND.
BASED ON 12Z LIT SOUNDING...ENVIRONMENT IS ALREADY UNCAPPED WITH
MLCAPE OF 500-700 J/KG. CONTINUED HEATING/MOISTENING IN ADVANCE OF
COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION TODAY
WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG
/EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 70 KT/ WITH GENERALLY
LONG...STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS. AS SUCH...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE INTENSE
CYCLONIC UPDRAFTS. AS SUCH...1630Z OUTLOOK WILL BE EXPANDED FARTHER
NWD IN KY AND A WW MAY BE NECESSARY.
..MEAD.. 02/18/2009
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0953 AM CST WED FEB 18 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL KY INTO MIDDLE TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 181553Z - 181730Z
THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR A WW.
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE DEEPENING CUMULUS/TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IN SHORT WSW-ENE ORIENTED BANDS OVER WRN KY
INTO NWRN TN AS OF 1540Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF
SURFACE COLD FRONT WITHIN A ZONE OF FAIRLY RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING/MOISTENING PER 3-HR CHANGE FIELDS. MOREOVER...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA IS ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF A BAND OF
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH IL/IND.
BASED ON 12Z LIT SOUNDING...ENVIRONMENT IS ALREADY UNCAPPED WITH
MLCAPE OF 500-700 J/KG. CONTINUED HEATING/MOISTENING IN ADVANCE OF
COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION TODAY
WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG
/EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 70 KT/ WITH GENERALLY
LONG...STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS. AS SUCH...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE INTENSE
CYCLONIC UPDRAFTS. AS SUCH...1630Z OUTLOOK WILL BE EXPANDED FARTHER
NWD IN KY AND A WW MAY BE NECESSARY.
..MEAD.. 02/18/2009
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Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 23
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CST WED FEB 18 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
LARGE PART OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1110 AM UNTIL
500 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF JACKSON
KENTUCKY TO 80 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF NASHVILLE TENNESSEE. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WRN KY/TN. VERY STRONG SHEAR AND
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUPPORTS DEVELOPMENT OF BOTH
SUPERCELLS AND SHORT LINE SEGMENTS. TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SUPERCELL AS THEY MOVE VERY RAPIDLY EWD. DAMAGING WINDS ALSO
LIKELY IN STRONGER STORMS...PARTICULARLY LINE SEGMENTS GIVEN THE
INTENSITY OF THE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26050.
...HALES
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 23
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CST WED FEB 18 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
LARGE PART OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1110 AM UNTIL
500 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF JACKSON
KENTUCKY TO 80 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF NASHVILLE TENNESSEE. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WRN KY/TN. VERY STRONG SHEAR AND
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUPPORTS DEVELOPMENT OF BOTH
SUPERCELLS AND SHORT LINE SEGMENTS. TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SUPERCELL AS THEY MOVE VERY RAPIDLY EWD. DAMAGING WINDS ALSO
LIKELY IN STRONGER STORMS...PARTICULARLY LINE SEGMENTS GIVEN THE
INTENSITY OF THE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26050.
...HALES
Last edited by Dave on Wed Feb 18, 2009 12:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
This thunderstorm warning is north of the tornado watch box - just to my southwest...looks to be travelling up the ohio river basin.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1141 AM CST WED FEB 18 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN DAVIESS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
SOUTHERN SPENCER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
SOUTHWESTERN WARRICK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
* UNTIL 1215 PM CST.
* AT 1140 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF NEWBURGH...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
NEWBURGH...
OWENSBORO...
ROCKPORT...
GRANDVIEW...
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS. STAY TUNED TO
WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER
INFORMATION.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1141 AM CST WED FEB 18 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN DAVIESS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
SOUTHERN SPENCER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
SOUTHWESTERN WARRICK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
* UNTIL 1215 PM CST.
* AT 1140 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF NEWBURGH...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
NEWBURGH...
OWENSBORO...
ROCKPORT...
GRANDVIEW...
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS. STAY TUNED TO
WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER
INFORMATION.
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AirNik
Re: Severe weather outbreak? February 18 - Southeast
Several counties in south-central Kentucky now under Tornado warnings.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 24
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
PARTS OF NORTHWEST GEORGIA
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1245 PM UNTIL
800 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 23...
DISCUSSION...AIR MASS HAS CONTINUED TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA AND 18Z SOUNDINGS AT JAN/BHM INDICATE STRONG SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. STORMS WILL
INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY EWD ACROSS THE WATCH WITH
SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH A TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED. STORMS WILL EVOLVE
ALSO INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS DURING AFTERNOON INCREASING THE WIND
DAMAGE THREAT UNDER A VERY STRONG WIND PROFILE.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26045.
...HALES
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 24
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
PARTS OF NORTHWEST GEORGIA
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1245 PM UNTIL
800 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 23...
DISCUSSION...AIR MASS HAS CONTINUED TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA AND 18Z SOUNDINGS AT JAN/BHM INDICATE STRONG SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. STORMS WILL
INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY EWD ACROSS THE WATCH WITH
SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH A TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED. STORMS WILL EVOLVE
ALSO INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS DURING AFTERNOON INCREASING THE WIND
DAMAGE THREAT UNDER A VERY STRONG WIND PROFILE.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26045.
...HALES
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AirNik
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0122
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OH INTO NRN KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 181909Z - 182000Z
CORRECTED FOR SITE ID ERROR
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD W-E ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DEEPENING CUMULUS AND LOW-TOPPED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT FROM THE IND/KY BORDER W OF DAY TO
SW OF SDF AS OF 1850Z. COMPARISON OF 12 AND 18Z ILN SOUNDINGS
INDICATES THAT SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTIONS /BOTH ALOFT AND
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER/ ARE CONTRIBUTING TO RAPID DESTABILIZATION
WITHIN MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT ATTENDING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY. MODIFICATION OF 18Z ILN SOUNDING FOR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S AND A DEWPOINTS OF AROUND 50 F YIELDS
MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG AND RELATIVELY STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES.
GIVEN THE STRONG LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A FEW LOW-TOPPED
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
..MEAD.. 02/18/2009
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...
LAT...LON 38288546 39828458 40588384 40708317 40678250 40308203
39528209 38798270 38378319 38208387 38288546
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OH INTO NRN KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 181909Z - 182000Z
CORRECTED FOR SITE ID ERROR
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD W-E ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DEEPENING CUMULUS AND LOW-TOPPED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT FROM THE IND/KY BORDER W OF DAY TO
SW OF SDF AS OF 1850Z. COMPARISON OF 12 AND 18Z ILN SOUNDINGS
INDICATES THAT SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTIONS /BOTH ALOFT AND
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER/ ARE CONTRIBUTING TO RAPID DESTABILIZATION
WITHIN MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT ATTENDING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY. MODIFICATION OF 18Z ILN SOUNDING FOR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S AND A DEWPOINTS OF AROUND 50 F YIELDS
MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG AND RELATIVELY STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES.
GIVEN THE STRONG LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A FEW LOW-TOPPED
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
..MEAD.. 02/18/2009
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...
LAT...LON 38288546 39828458 40588384 40708317 40678250 40308203
39528209 38798270 38378319 38208387 38288546
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37991
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Severe weather outbreak? February 18 - Southeast
This event still looks marginal to me and not a classic outbreak. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 50's is not sufficient though it is more impressive than last night.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
147 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...
* UNTIL 215 PM CST
* AT 145 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR ARAB...
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
* LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
HYATT.
MOUNTAIN VIEW.
GUNTERSVILLE.
ALBERTVILLE.
HUSTLEVILLE.
WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
147 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...
* UNTIL 215 PM CST
* AT 145 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR ARAB...
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
* LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
HYATT.
MOUNTAIN VIEW.
GUNTERSVILLE.
ALBERTVILLE.
HUSTLEVILLE.
WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA.
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-
AirNik
Re: Severe weather outbreak? February 18 - Southeast
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
145 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CULLMAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
CENTRAL MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...
* UNTIL 230 PM CST
* AT 145 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
EVA...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LOCATED
NEAR ARAB...AND JUST SOUTH OF BATTLEGROUND...ALL OF WHICH ARE
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HULACO...BAILEYTON...
JOPPA...
ARAB...EDDY...
UNION GROVE...
MOUNTAIN VIEW...GUNTERSVILLE...
RABBIT TOWN...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
145 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CULLMAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
CENTRAL MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...
* UNTIL 230 PM CST
* AT 145 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
EVA...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LOCATED
NEAR ARAB...AND JUST SOUTH OF BATTLEGROUND...ALL OF WHICH ARE
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HULACO...BAILEYTON...
JOPPA...
ARAB...EDDY...
UNION GROVE...
MOUNTAIN VIEW...GUNTERSVILLE...
RABBIT TOWN...
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Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KY INTO MIDDLE/ERN TN
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 23...
VALID 181933Z - 182100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 23 CONTINUES.
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT /I.E. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS
A TORNADO OR TWO/ IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS ERN HALF OF WW AREA
THROUGH 21Z. BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT STORM MOTIONS...ERN
EXTENSION OF THIS THREAT MAY DEVELOP E OF WW AREA BY 2000-2030Z AND
AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
AS OF 1920Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A BAND OF SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS FROM KNOX COUNTY KY WSWWD TO WAYNE COUNTY KY
AND THEN MORE SWD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. THE MOST INTENSE STORM /A
SUPERCELL/ WAS LOCATED AT THE INTERSECTION OF WHITE...PUTNAM AND
CUMBERLAND COUNTIES TN WITH AN ESTIMATED STORM MOTION OF 265/45 KT.
18Z BNA SOUNDING INDICATED THAT CONSIDERABLE WARMING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER HAD DESTABILIZED AIR MASS DESPITE THE MARGINAL MOISTURE
CONTENT WITH MLCAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. THIS SAME
DESTABILIZATION PROCESS IS NOW OCCURRING FURTHER E OVER THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WHERE NOTABLE INCREASES IN BOUNDARY LAYER HEAT
AND MOISTURE ARE OCCURRING PER 3-HR CHANGE FIELDS. VERTICAL SHEAR
REMAINS QUITE STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS ASSUMING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS TO MAINTAIN
ONGOING STORMS. WHILE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE
WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KY INTO MIDDLE/ERN TN
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 23...
VALID 181933Z - 182100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 23 CONTINUES.
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT /I.E. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS
A TORNADO OR TWO/ IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS ERN HALF OF WW AREA
THROUGH 21Z. BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT STORM MOTIONS...ERN
EXTENSION OF THIS THREAT MAY DEVELOP E OF WW AREA BY 2000-2030Z AND
AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
AS OF 1920Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A BAND OF SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS FROM KNOX COUNTY KY WSWWD TO WAYNE COUNTY KY
AND THEN MORE SWD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. THE MOST INTENSE STORM /A
SUPERCELL/ WAS LOCATED AT THE INTERSECTION OF WHITE...PUTNAM AND
CUMBERLAND COUNTIES TN WITH AN ESTIMATED STORM MOTION OF 265/45 KT.
18Z BNA SOUNDING INDICATED THAT CONSIDERABLE WARMING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER HAD DESTABILIZED AIR MASS DESPITE THE MARGINAL MOISTURE
CONTENT WITH MLCAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. THIS SAME
DESTABILIZATION PROCESS IS NOW OCCURRING FURTHER E OVER THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WHERE NOTABLE INCREASES IN BOUNDARY LAYER HEAT
AND MOISTURE ARE OCCURRING PER 3-HR CHANGE FIELDS. VERTICAL SHEAR
REMAINS QUITE STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS ASSUMING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS TO MAINTAIN
ONGOING STORMS. WHILE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE
WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS.
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