Jan 20 - 21 Severe Weather

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
236 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN EVANGELINE PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...VILLE PLATTE...MAMOU...
NORTHWESTERN ST. LANDRY PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 330 PM CST

* AT 232 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
SOUTHWEST OF MAMOU...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MAMOU BY 240 PM CST...
VILLE PLATTE BY 255 PM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY
TIME. TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0024
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX INTO PARTS OF SRN/CNTRL LA AND SWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 202022Z - 202145Z

THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS APPEARS
TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

RECENT TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OF TSTMS N OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. INSPECTION OF
LOCAL VWP DATA SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY
LOW-LEVEL WAA WITH STORMS LIKELY STILL SLIGHTLY ELEVATED BASED ON
OBSERVED MOTIONS. AMBIENT AIR MASS HAS WARMED INTO THE LOWER 70S AS
OF 20Z...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
60S...ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF
1500-2000 J/KG.

WHILE THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
SRN HIGH PLAINS VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE
W OF REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...IT APPEARS THE PERSISTENT
WAA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM SUSTAINING THIS
STORM ACTIVITY.

CONTINUED HEATING/MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER MAY EVENTUALLY
SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SURFACE-BASED STORMS WITHIN A WIND PROFILE
CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KT AND 0-1 KM SRH OF
100-200 M2/S2. AS SUCH...THE PROBABILITY OF SUPERCELL FORMATION IS
INCREASING WITH ATTENDANT THREATS FOR HAIL...LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.

..MEAD.. 01/20/2010


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0023
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 201949Z - 202115Z

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW
ISSUANCE.

SURFACE FRONT WHICH STALLED FROM S-CNTRL OK INTO W-CNTRL TX EARLIER
TODAY HAS SINCE RETREATED NWD TO VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER IN
RESPONSE TO THE EWD DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW INTO FAR SERN CO.
AT THE SAME TIME...INCREASING WLY WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOW MOVING INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IS RESULTING
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DRYLINE FROM THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS INTO WRN
EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION AS OF 19Z.

DEEPER PBL MIXING INVOF AND IMMEDIATELY E OF DRYLINE HAS ALLOWED FOR
THE EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 60S
INTO LOWER 70S. BASED ON 18Z FWD SOUNDING...TEMPERATURES OF
MID/UPPER 70S WOULD ELIMINATE MUCH OF THE REMAINING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1500-2000 J/KG. LATEST RUC/SREF
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING COUPLED
WITH INCREASING DYNAMIC COOLING/FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF STORM INITIATION
AFTER 21-23Z.

BOTH FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AND CURRENTLY OBSERVED VWP/PROFILER DATA
INDICATE SUFFICIENT /40-50 KT/ DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING WHEN LLJ IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN.

..MEAD.. 01/20/2010


ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

[srainhoutx]

Looks like a long night David. FWD did a special sounding at 18Z.

[RL3AO]

Have our first watch of the year. Took 20 days.

[Dave]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
315 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF LOUISIANA
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
SOUTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 315 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES WEST OF FORT POLK
LOUISIANA TO 60 MILES EAST OF MC COMB MISSISSIPPI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...DRIVEN BY BROAD LOW-LEVEL
WAA REGIME. AMBIENT AIR MASS HAS BECOME WARM...MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH 40-45 KT
OF DEEP-LAYER LAYER AND STEADILY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG
LLJ AXIS...ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...MEAD/WEISS

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Moderate Moderate

[Dave]

sure does look like a long night, setup and ready to go for awhile here.

[srainhoutx]

The Ville Platte Cell looked impressive earlier before my power surge here. Argh...

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
327 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN AVOYELLES PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SIMMESPORT...
NORTH CENTRAL ST. LANDRY PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 430 PM CST

* AT 325 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 19 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SIMMESPORT...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF PALMETTO...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SIMMESPORT BY 425 PM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY
TIME. TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

[Dave]

JAN 20 155500 EST
TORNADO
1 NW VILLE PLATTE
EVANGELINE
LA
BROADCAST MEDIA
CARS BLOWN INTO A DITCH

[Dave]

AVOYELLES LA-ST. LANDRY LA-
336 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CST FOR NORTH
CENTRAL ST. LANDRY AND SOUTHEASTERN AVOYELLES PARISHES...

AT 333 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BIG CANE...OR 10
MILES NORTHWEST OF PALMETTO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
DUPONT BY 400 PM CST...
SIMMESPORT BY 430 PM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
342 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 415 PM CST

* AT 342 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
INDEPENDENCE...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF AMITE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WILMER

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

[Dave]

AVOYELLES LA-ST. LANDRY LA-
343 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CST FOR NORTH
CENTRAL ST. LANDRY AND SOUTHEASTERN AVOYELLES PARISHES...

AT 342 PM CST...A TORNADO WAS. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF DUPONT...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF PALMETTO...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SIMMESPORT BY 355 PM CST...

[Dave]

AVOYELLES LA-
348 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN AVOYELLES PARISH...

AT 347 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF
SIMMESPORT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
8 MILES SOUTH OF SIMMESPORT BY 355 PM CST...

[srainhoutx]

Looks like the dryline is about to fire up W of Dallas/Ft Worth.

[Dave]

Looks like the dryline is about to fire up W of Dallas/Ft Worth.

Tornado Watch #2 is coming out now..

[Dave]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 2
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
355 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
FORT WORTH TEXAS TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF TEXARKANA ARKANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 1...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY
ACROSS PART OF NORTH CENTRAL TX/SOUTH CENTRAL OK ALONG WARM FRONT IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. RELATIVELY STEEP
LAPSE RATES ABOVE MOIST PBL ARE CONTRIBUTING TO UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR CURRENTLY IN THE
35-45 KT RANGE IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...AND LOW LCL
HEIGHTS AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH WILL ENHANCE THREAT FOR A
FEW TORNADOES WITH DISCRETE CELLS THAT FORM.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.


...WEISS

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Low
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Moderate Low

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
401 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
WEST CENTRAL WASHINGTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FRANKLINTON...

* UNTIL 445 PM CST

* AT 401 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
INDEPENDENCE...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF HAMMOND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WILMER

[Dave]

Ok staying with tornado warnings only tonight unless there are thunderstorm warnings with winds over 80+ issued. In and around each tornado warning are numerous thunderstorm warnings, if you live in or near the current tornado warning check your local weather/noaa for thunderstorm warnings also.

[Dave]

JAN 20 16:40:00 EST
HAIL
INDEPENDENCE
E1.75 INCH
TANGIPAHOA
LA
EMERGENCY MNGR