Mid Atlantic Weather 2011

[Stephanie]

Dare I say it? Punxatawy Phil may have been right? We certainly have been enjoying warmer temperatures fluctuating from mid 40's to almost 70! This coming week will bring the 50's and two heavy rain storms, one today and another Thursday. Daffodils are poking through the soil and there's a hint of green on the shrubs on the side of the roads.

C'MON SPRING!!!

[angelwing]

Suuurrrreeeeeeeeee...5AM today went out, jeep was iced over and it was snowing!!!!!

[Stephanie]

Suuurrrreeeeeeeeee...5AM today went out, jeep was iced over and it was snowing!!!!!

It was??? OMG!

[angelwing]

At least by the time I got to work in NJ it was all gone but boy it was cold those first couple of hours!!

Now we start with these:
(I heard they evacuated some folks yesterday in NJ, think it was Pompton?)

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
418 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2011
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...NEWTON...
WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...TRENTON...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...
CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...
WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
418 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...NEW JERSEY AND PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN DELAWARE...NEW CASTLE. IN
NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CECIL. IN NEW JERSEY...CAMDEN...
GLOUCESTER...HUNTERDON...MERCER...MIDDLESEX...MORRIS...
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON...SOMERSET...SUSSEX...WARREN AND
WESTERN MONMOUTH. IN PENNSYLVANIA...BERKS...BUCKS...CARBON...
CHESTER...DELAWARE...LEHIGH...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
NORTHAMPTON AND PHILADELPHIA.

* FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

* HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY AGAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. BEST TIMING
ESTIMATE IS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS
COULD AVERAGE ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. THESE AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE VIEWED AS PRELIMINARY. PLEASE LOOK FOR FURTHER
UPDATES IN THE COMING DAYS.

* THE ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS...AS WELL AS CAUSE SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS TO
RISE OUT OF THEIR BANKS. THE RUNOFF COULD ALSO CAUSE FLOODING
ALONG MAIN STEM RIVERS SUCH AS THE RARITAN, DELAWARE AND
SCHUYLKILL WITH THE PASSAIC RIVER BASIN THE MOST VULNERABLE TO
ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

* WHILE THE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER BY FRIDAY MORNING, THE
EFFECTS FROM THE FLOODING COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING
BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. IF YOU HAVE OR ARE
EXPERIENCING FLOODING WITH THE LAST EVENT THE COURSE OF LEAST REGRET
WOULD BE TO PREPARE FOR IT AGAIN. BECAUSE OF THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS EVENT TO AFFECT MORE WATERWAYS AND
CAUSE POSSIBLY HIGHER CRESTS.

[Stephanie]

This statement is scary:

STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS
COULD AVERAGE ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. THESE AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE VIEWED AS PRELIMINARY.

[angelwing]

Not looking forward to this, where we moved to at the very back of our property is where the shed is on rocks. We were going to bury Digger there, when we started digging, the amount of water that kept coming into the hole was unbelievable!
Needless to say we put him somewhere else, but now I know what the shed is on a rock foundation.

Now our sump pump in our basement has been going off maybe every half hour. We had dug the hole a foot and a half deeper as that's what the house inspector had told us and put in a liner(i never lived in a home where there is an active sump pump but that's what all the houses have here..i have never seen so much red clay)and it seemed to stop the constant running. Now I am worried that this might not be enough, the ground at home is absolutely saturated!

[angelwing]

Still active...anyone have a site where there the water levels are listed? I drive over the Delaware and the Surekill every day and work near the Raritan.


FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 AM EST WED MAR 9 2011
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...NEWTON...
WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...TRENTON...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...
CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...
WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
341 AM EST WED MAR 9 2011

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...NEW JERSEY AND PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN DELAWARE...NEW CASTLE. IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CECIL.
IN NEW JERSEY...CAMDEN...GLOUCESTER...HUNTERDON...MERCER...
MIDDLESEX...MORRIS...NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON...SOMERSET...
SUSSEX...WARREN AND WESTERN MONMOUTH. IN PENNSYLVANIA...
BERKS...BUCKS...CARBON...CHESTER...DELAWARE...LEHIGH...
MONROE...MONTGOMERY...NORTHAMPTON AND PHILADELPHIA.

* FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

* HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. RAIN SHOULD
BEGIN TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR DURING THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS SHOULD AVERAGE TWO TO THREE AND A HALF INCHES WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS. THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE UPDATED AS THE LATEST MODEL
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

* THE ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS...AS WELL AS CAUSE SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS TO RISE OUT
OF THEIR BANKS. THE RUNOFF SHOULD ALSO CAUSE FLOODING ALONG MAIN
STEM RIVERS. THE PASSAIC RIVER IS THE MOST VULNERABLE DUE TO
ONGOING FLOODING. THE RARITAN...DELAWARE AND SCHUYLKILL RIVERS
ALSO ARE VULNERABLE. MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS REMAIN AT HIGHER
THAN NORMAL LEVELS AND WILL NOT RETURN TO NORMAL FLOW BEFORE THIS
NEXT RAIN STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. PLEASE MAKE ALL THE NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TODAY. IF YOU EXPERIENCED FLOODING WITH THE LAST EVENT THE COURSE OF LEAST REGRET WOULD BE TO PREPARE FOR IT AGAIN. BECAUSE OF THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN THE LIKELIHOOD EXISTS FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT TO AFFECT EVEN MORE WATERWAYS AND CAUSE POSSIBLY HIGHER CRESTS.

[angelwing]

*Flood Watch Thurs-Fri. Flash flooding-small streams Thurs PM. Schuylkill & Delaware flooding poss Thurs PM-Fri*

The Managing Director's Office of Emergency Management is closely monitoring the possibility of flooding in the Philadelphia area this Thursday and Friday.

According to the National Weather Service, Two to four inches of rain is currently expected in the Philadelphia region with higher amounts possible. Light rain is expected to begin Wednesday evening (3/9), becoming heavy Thursday morning (3/10) then lasting into Friday morning (3/11). The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for the entire Delaware Valley based on this forecast.

This rainfall may cause flash flooding of low lying areas, streams, creeks and moderate flooding on the Schuykill River.

A Coastal Flood Watch is also in effect for the Delaware River from 1 am to 7 am Friday morning. A nearly 3 foot surge is forecast near the time of the high tide late Thursday night and early Friday, which would result in moderate flooding.

Philadelphia has many flood prone areas, including but not limited to:
- Cobbs Creek and the marsh lands in the southwest sector of the City;
- Portions of the Philadelphia Naval Base;
- Delaware River which is usually first observed along Delaware Ave & Ben Franklin Bridge;
- In the Northeast where Linden Avenue meets the Delaware;
- Main Street Manayunk;
- Kelly and Lincoln Drives;
- City brooks, creeks & streams to include the Pennypack, Poquessing and Cobbs Creeks, as well as Tacony, Frankford, and Wissahickon Creeks.

Flooding may involve numerous hazardous conditions, including moving water, washed-out roads, damage to utility systems, and damage to structures.

Residents and businesses in low lying areas with a history of flooding during storms should prepare immediately!!! Be prepared to evacuate if needed, and if an evacuation order is given, leave as quickly as possible for your own safety.

It is strongly recommended that Philadelphians living in flood prone areas make alternative arrangements to stay with family or friends whose homes are not prone to flooding for the course of this event and until the flooding threat subsides.

If you are driving and encounter flood waters or standing water, do not attempt to drive your vehicle through the water. Try to find an alternate route or wait until the water recedes.

Before flooding occurs, the Office of Emergency Management recommends the following preparation tips:

- Sign up for ReadyNotifyPA, the region's emergency text and email alert system at http://www.phila.gov/ready or texting PHILA to 411911 from your cell phone. Future updates on flooding will be sent to the Weather Warnings groups and the River - Schuylkill at Philadelphia groups.
- Monitor National Weather Service forecasts at http://weather.gov/phi
- Know your area's flood risk. To estimate your flood risk and flood insurance premium, visit http://www.floodsmart.gov.
- Make an itemized list of personal property, including furnishings, clothing, and valuables.
- Fill out an Emergency Plan Card containing important emergency information and contacts for you and your family. A template can be found at http://www.phila.gov/ready.
- If you live in a flood-susceptible area, keep materials, such as sandbags, plywood, plastic sheeting, and lumber, on hand to help protect your home.
- Consider getting flood insurance. Protection against loss due to floods is not covered under a homeowner's policy. Flood insurance is offered through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).
- Listen to local news for critical updates

If your home is susceptible to basement flooding you should:

- If possible, seal any floor drains in your basement, as they are the lowest points of entry of sewer backup.
- Do not store anything of value in your basement. If you have time before the next heavy rainfall, relocate your valuables prior to flooding.
- To prevent sewer blockages never pour grease, paint or other thick liquids into sinks or drains. Avoid flushing items that are not suitable for sanitary sewer disposal such as paper towels, diaper wipes, contraceptive and feminine products.
- Verify with your insurance company if you have flood and sewer backup coverage, especially if your basement is finished. This will usually require a separate rider to your policy.
- Never enter a flooded basement the risk of electrocution is present. Wait for the water to subside.

For information about Flood Insurance or further Flood Preparation Tips, visit the Floods page of the Office of Emergency Management's web site at http://www.phila.gov/ready or call 3-1-1.

When you change your clocks this weekend, remember to check your stock of emergency supply items in your household emergency kits and Go Bags to make sure your supplies of water, food, and batteries have not reach their expiration dates. For a complete list of emergency supplies, visit http://www.phila.gov/ready

Sent through Philadelphia ReadyNotifyPA.
... powered by RSAN dba Cooper Notification.
--

[angelwing]

http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/cities-prepare-for-flooding_2011-03-09

*snip* The Governor of New Jersey signed an emergency declaration Wednesday. He says record flooding is possible. The state says it's very concerned about the Passaic, Ramapo, Delaware, and Raritan rivers. New Jersey's Emergency Operations headquarters will be staffed beginning Thursday morning.*snip*

Rest at above link

[angelwing]

(between the Japan eq news and the news I am getting for the flooding in work in NJ, sheesh)

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
723 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011
MORRIS NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-SOMERSET NJ-MERCER NJ-DELAWARE PA-
PHILADELPHIA PA-MONTGOMERY PA-BUCKS PA-
723 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...
SOUTHWESTERN MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
HUNTERDON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
WESTERN SOMERSET COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
WESTERN MERCER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...
EASTERN DELAWARE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
PHILADELPHIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 1145 AM EST

* AT 722 AM EST SMALL STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH FROM HEAVY RAIN
LAST NIGHT. THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENED UNTIL LATER THIS
MORNING TO GIVE THESE SMALL STREAMS TIME TO DRAIN.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

[angelwing]

Now this is interesting...



SPC AC 220536

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER NORTH AMERICA
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITHIN BROAD UPPER TROUGHING NEAR THE
PACIFIC COAST...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SERIES OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES WILL STILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DIGGING OFFSHORE...BUT
ONE IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST...INTO
THE GREAT BASIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
LATTER FEATURE...COUPLED WITH A ANOTHER IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE
NORTHERN/WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF HUDSON BAY...APPEAR LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF A CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY
OVER THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS THIS
IMPULSE IS FORCED INTO AN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT REGIME...AN
ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY /90-100+ KT
AT 500 MB/ AND GRADUALLY VEER FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AS IT
NOSES EAST OF THE OZARK PLATEAU TOWARD THE SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

AT LOWER LEVELS...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SUB-1000 MB SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK ALONG A STALLED SURFACE FRONT SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE STRONGER SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TRAILING
TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST OF THE INITIAL LOW...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AS SURFACE
RIDGING WEAKENS AND RETREATS AWAY FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
BENEATH THE REMNANTS OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR EMANATING FROM THE
MEXICAN/U.S. PLATEAU REGION...THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK
TO MODERATE CONDITIONAL AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...WHICH LIKELY
WILL PROMOTE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING THE RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS.

...OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...
INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FOCUSED IN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR THE
LOW...AND ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE
LOW...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS MID DAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN
INDIANA INTO OHIO. THIS MAY INCLUDE SUPERCELLS...BUT UPSCALE GROWTH
INTO AN EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS
POSSIBLE...WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

AS THIS OCCURS...AND AN AREA OF STRONG MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER JET STREAK...ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG AN EFFECTIVE DRY LINE TYPE STRUCTURE NEAR AND TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO REMAIN
DISCRETE IN THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.

TORNADIC POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY WITH THE DISCRETE STORMS...
REMAINS THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS FORECAST...AND APPEARS
LIKELY TO HINGE ON THE CHARACTER OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN GENERAL MAY NOT BECOME PARTICULARLY LARGE
AND CLOCKWISE CURVED...THE SHEAR STILL APPEARS SUFFICIENT.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AMONG THE MODELS DO EXHIBIT SOME
VARIABILITY CONCERNING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT. IF
SURFACE DEW POINTS APPROACH 60F...AND THE SURFACE DOES NOT HEAT TOO
STRONGLY AND SUPPORT DEEPER MIXING...THE TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE
HIGHER...AND THE SEVERE THREAT PERHAPS GREATER THAN REFLECTED BY THE
CURRENT SLIGHT RISK. CURRENTLY...IT SEEMS MORE PROBABLE THAT
SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...PROMOTING
PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

MODEST DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT COULD ALSO
PROMOTE STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY LATE AFTERNOON. BUT IT ALSO SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY MAINTAIN STRENGTH ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS...WITH A CONTINUING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. COOL/COLD AIR
TO THE NORTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE MAY MITIGATE THE SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL NEAR CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA.

..KERR.. 03/22/2011

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1400Z (10:00AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[angelwing]

(JUst heard about the tornado up in Greensburg PA, 3.25 inch hail in Pgh, sheesh, I think this is that storm0:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
653 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-
CAPE MAY NJ-CARBON PA-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-
DELAWARE BEACHES DE-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-
INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-
MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-
SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-TALBOT MD-
WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
653 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

[Stephanie]

I've had the thunder and lightning hanging around for the last half hour. Possibility of snow this weekend. Welcome to March!!

[tomboudreau]

I have 2 inch hail in the freezer that I picked up on my way home. After arriving home, we got a second storm that dropped 1 to 1.25 inch hail. It was an interesting evening. News coverage is all about the possible tornado in Westmoreland County. Some houses are totally destroyed out that way.

[Stephanie]

I have 2 inch hail in the freezer that I picked up on my way home. After arriving home, we got a second storm that dropped 1 to 1.25 inch hail. It was an interesting evening. News coverage is all about the possible tornado in Westmoreland County. Some houses are totally destroyed out that way.

That hail could've really hurt someone, not to mention the damage!

I saw the pictures of the tornado and damage. They're saying it was an EF2. That looked like a new development it hit.

[angelwing]

(April Fool's-------NOT...and it was sleeting when I got to work this am)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
744 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2011
BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...
EASTON...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN
744 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2011

...HEAVIER SNOW BANDS MOVING THROUGH NOW...

AN AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD FROM CHESTER COUNTY PA THROUGH THE LEIGH VALLEY. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED A FEW DEGREES ALLOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE GRASSY SURFACES WHILE A SLUSHY MESS IS EXPECTED ON THE ROADS GENERATING NUMEROUS SLICK SPOTS. PLEASE USE EXTRA CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING THIS MORNING ALONG AREA ROADWAYS AND ALLOW EXTRA BREAKING DISTANCE.

[Stephanie]

(April Fool's-------NOT...and it was sleeting when I got to work this am)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
744 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2011
BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...
EASTON...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN
744 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2011

...HEAVIER SNOW BANDS MOVING THROUGH NOW...

AN AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD FROM CHESTER COUNTY PA THROUGH THE LEIGH VALLEY. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED A FEW DEGREES ALLOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE GRASSY SURFACES WHILE A SLUSHY MESS IS EXPECTED ON THE ROADS GENERATING NUMEROUS SLICK SPOTS. PLEASE USE EXTRA CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING THIS MORNING ALONG AREA ROADWAYS AND ALLOW EXTRA BREAKING DISTANCE.

Yeah, there was snow mixing in with the rain on the way to work in Philadelphia this morning. I was listening to the traffic reports about the snow in Chester County. BIZARRE!

[angelwing]

SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 101
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
DELAWARE
EASTERN MARYLAND
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 220 AM UNTIL 1000 AM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ROANOKE RAPIDS NORTH CAROLINA
TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF BALTIMORE MARYLAND. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 99. WATCH NUMBER 99 WILL NOT BE IN
EFFECT AFTER 220 AM EDT. CONTINUE...WW 97...WW 98...WW 100...

DISCUSSION...BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS EMERGING FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SUPERCELL AND LEWP CHARACTERISTICS AS IT RACES
NEWD ACROSS THE WW AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED BY
AMBIENT STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND INTERACTION OF CONVECTIVE BAND
WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RETREATING NWD THROUGH THE REGION.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25050.


...MEAD

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Very Low Very Low


Note: See the experimental Public Watch (SEL) product with explicit hazard information section below. The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 101 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
DELAWARE
EASTERN MARYLAND
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 220 AM UNTIL 1000 AM EDT.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ROANOKE RAPIDS NORTH CAROLINA
TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF BALTIMORE MARYLAND. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 99. WATCH NUMBER 99 WILL NOT BE IN
EFFECT AFTER 220 AM EDT. CONTINUE...WW 97...WW 98...WW 100...

DISCUSSION...BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS EMERGING FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SUPERCELL AND LEWP CHARACTERISTICS AS IT RACES
NEWD ACROSS THE WW AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED BY
AMBIENT STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND INTERACTION OF CONVECTIVE BAND
WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RETREATING NWD THROUGH THE REGION.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25050.


...MEAD

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Very Low Very Low


SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 101
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
DELAWARE
EASTERN MARYLAND
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 220 AM UNTIL 1000 AM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ROANOKE RAPIDS NORTH CAROLINA
TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF BALTIMORE MARYLAND. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 99. WATCH NUMBER 99 WILL NOT BE IN
EFFECT AFTER 220 AM EDT. CONTINUE...WW 97...WW 98...WW 100...

DISCUSSION...BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS EMERGING FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SUPERCELL AND LEWP CHARACTERISTICS AS IT RACES
NEWD ACROSS THE WW AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED BY
AMBIENT STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND INTERACTION OF CONVECTIVE BAND
WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RETREATING NWD THROUGH THE REGION.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25050.


...MEAD

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Very Low Very Low


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 050615
WOU1

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 101
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

TORNADO WATCH 101 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

DCC001-051400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0101.110405T0620Z-110405T1400Z/

DC
. DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA


DEC001-003-005-051400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0101.110405T0620Z-110405T1400Z/

DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX


MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035-
037-039-041-045-047-510-051400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0101.110405T0620Z-110405T1400Z/

MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT
CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL
CHARLES DORCHESTER FREDERICK
HARFORD HOWARD KENT
MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES QUEEN ANNE'S
SOMERSET ST. MARYS TALBOT
WICOMICO WORCESTER


MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

BALTIMORE CITY


NCC015-029-033-041-053-073-091-131-139-143-157-051400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0101.110405T0620Z-110405T1400Z/

NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERTIE CAMDEN CASWELL
CHOWAN CURRITUCK GATES
HERTFORD NORTHAMPTON PASQUOTANK
PERQUIMANS ROCKINGHAM


VAC001-003-007-009-011-013-019-025-029-031-033-036-037-041-047-
049-053-057-059-061-065-067-073-075-079-081-083-085-087-089-093-
095-097-099-101-103-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-125-127-131-133-
135-137-143-145-147-149-153-157-159-175-177-179-181-183-193-199-
510-515-540-550-570-590-595-600-610-620-630-650-670-680-683-685-
690-700-710-730-735-740-760-800-810-830-051400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0101.110405T0620Z-110405T1400Z/

VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ACCOMACK ALBEMARLE AMELIA
AMHERST APPOMATTOX ARLINGTON
BEDFORD BRUNSWICK BUCKINGHAM
CAMPBELL CAROLINE CHARLES CITY
CHARLOTTE CHESTERFIELD CULPEPER
CUMBERLAND DINWIDDIE ESSEX
FAIRFAX FAUQUIER FLUVANNA
FRANKLIN GLOUCESTER GOOCHLAND
GREENE GREENSVILLE HALIFAX
HANOVER HENRICO HENRY
ISLE OF WIGHT JAMES CITY KING AND QUEEN
KING GEORGE KING WILLIAM LANCASTER
LOUDOUN LOUISA LUNENBURG
MADISON MATHEWS MECKLENBURG
MIDDLESEX NELSON NEW KENT
NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND NOTTOWAY
ORANGE PITTSYLVANIA POWHATAN
PRINCE EDWARD PRINCE GEORGE PRINCE WILLIAM
RAPPAHANNOCK RICHMOND SOUTHAMPTON
SPOTSYLVANIA STAFFORD SURRY
SUSSEX WESTMORELAND YORK


VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

ALEXANDRIA BEDFORD CHARLOTTESVILLE
CHESAPEAKE COLONIAL HEIGHTS DANVILLE
EMPORIA FAIRFAX FALLS CHURCH
FRANKLIN FREDERICKSBURG HAMPTON
HOPEWELL LYNCHBURG MANASSAS
MANASSAS PARK MARTINSVILLE NEWPORT NEWS
NORFOLK PETERSBURG POQUOSON
PORTSMOUTH RICHMOND SUFFOLK
VIRGINIA BEACH WILLIAMSBURG


ANZ430-530-531-532-533-534-535-536-537-538-539-540-541-542-543-
630-631-632-633-051400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0101.110405T0620Z-110405T1400Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE

CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA

TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD

TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD

TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA

PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR

CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD

EASTERN BAY

CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER

PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD

TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA

CURRITUCK SOUND

ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ...PHI...RNK...




Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Very Low Very Low


Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW1
WW 101 TORNADO DC DE MD NC VA CW 050620Z - 051400Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
RZZ/ROANOKE RAPIDS NC/ - 35NNE BWI/BALTIMORE MD/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /62ENE RDU - 27ENE EMI/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25050.

REPLACES WW 99..NC VA

LAT...LON 36437923 39637801 39637481 36437618

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.


Watch 101 Status Report Messages:

STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 101

VALID 051035Z - 051140Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW ECG
TO 20 W SBY TO 5 ENE ILG.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 354.

..EDWARDS..04/05/11

ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...RNK...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WT 101

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

DEC001-005-051140-

DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

KENT SUSSEX
$$


MDC011-039-045-047-051140-

MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CAROLINE SOMERSET WICOMICO
WORCESTER
$$


NCC015-029-041-053-073-139-143-051140-

NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERTIE CAMDEN CHOWAN
CURRITUCK GATES PASQUOTANK
PERQUIMANS
$$


VAC001-131-550-710-740-810-051140-

VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ACCOMACK NORTHAMPTON


VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

CHESAPEAKE NORFOLK PORTSMOUTH
VIRGINIA BEACH
$$


ANZ630-631-632-633-051140-

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA

CURRITUCK SOUND

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 101

VALID 050940Z - 051040Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E RZZ TO
20 SE RIC TO 30 SSE BWI TO 35 W ILG.

..SMITH..04/05/11

ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...RNK...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WT 101

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

DEC001-003-005-051040-

DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX
$$


MDC009-011-019-029-035-039-041-045-047-051040-

MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CALVERT CAROLINE DORCHESTER
KENT QUEEN ANNE'S SOMERSET
TALBOT WICOMICO WORCESTER
$$


NCC015-029-041-053-073-091-131-139-143-051040-

NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERTIE CAMDEN CHOWAN
CURRITUCK GATES HERTFORD
NORTHAMPTON PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS
$$


VAC001-073-093-095-103-115-119-131-133-175-181-193-199-550-620-
650-700-710-735-740-800-810-830-051040-

VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ACCOMACK GLOUCESTER ISLE OF WIGHT
JAMES CITY LANCASTER MATHEWS
MIDDLESEX NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND
SOUTHAMPTON SURRY WESTMORELAND
YORK


VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

CHESAPEAKE FRANKLIN HAMPTON
NEWPORT NEWS NORFOLK POQUOSON
PORTSMOUTH SUFFOLK VIRGINIA BEACH
WILLIAMSBURG
$$


ANZ430-533-539-540-541-542-543-630-631-632-633-051040-

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD

CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD

EASTERN BAY

CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER

PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD

TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA

CURRITUCK SOUND

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 101

VALID 050835Z - 050940Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW AVC
TO 35 W RIC TO 30 NW DCA TO 35 S CXY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 361.

..EDWARDS..04/05/11

ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...RNK...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WT 101

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

DEC001-003-005-050940-

DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX
$$


DCC001-050940-

DC
. DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
$$


MDC003-005-009-011-015-017-019-025-027-029-031-033-035-037-039-
041-045-047-510-050940-

MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT
CAROLINE CECIL CHARLES
DORCHESTER HARFORD HOWARD
KENT MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES
QUEEN ANNE'S ST. MARYS SOMERSET
TALBOT WICOMICO WORCESTER




MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

BALTIMORE CITY
$$


NCC015-029-041-053-073-091-131-139-143-050940-

NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERTIE CAMDEN CHOWAN
CURRITUCK GATES HERTFORD
NORTHAMPTON PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS
$$


VAC001-007-013-025-033-036-041-053-057-059-073-081-085-087-093-
095-097-099-101-103-111-115-117-119-127-131-133-135-145-149-153-
159-175-177-179-181-183-193-199-510-550-570-595-600-610-620-630-
650-670-683-685-700-710-730-735-740-760-800-810-830-050940-

VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ACCOMACK AMELIA ARLINGTON
BRUNSWICK CAROLINE CHARLES CITY
CHESTERFIELD DINWIDDIE ESSEX
FAIRFAX GLOUCESTER GREENSVILLE
HANOVER HENRICO ISLE OF WIGHT
JAMES CITY KING AND QUEEN KING GEORGE
KING WILLIAM LANCASTER LUNENBURG
MATHEWS MECKLENBURG MIDDLESEX
NEW KENT NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND
NOTTOWAY POWHATAN PRINCE GEORGE
PRINCE WILLIAM RICHMOND SOUTHAMPTON
SPOTSYLVANIA STAFFORD SURRY
SUSSEX WESTMORELAND YORK




VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

ALEXANDRIA CHESAPEAKE COLONIAL HEIGHTS
EMPORIA FAIRFAX FALLS CHURCH
FRANKLIN FREDERICKSBURG HAMPTON
HOPEWELL MANASSAS MANASSAS PARK
NEWPORT NEWS NORFOLK PETERSBURG
POQUOSON PORTSMOUTH RICHMOND
SUFFOLK VIRGINIA BEACH WILLIAMSBURG
$$


ANZ430-530-531-532-533-534-535-536-537-538-539-540-541-542-543-
630-631-632-633-050940-

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE

CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA

TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD

TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD

TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA

PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR

CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD

EASTERN BAY

CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER

PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD

TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA

CURRITUCK SOUND

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 101

VALID 050730Z - 050840Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SSE DAN TO
35 E LYH TO 10 SSW CHO TO 30 SSE MRB TO 15 E HGR.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 361.

..EDWARDS..04/05/11

ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...RNK...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WT 101

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

DEC001-003-005-050840-

DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX
$$


DCC001-050840-

DC
. DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
$$


MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035-
037-039-041-045-047-510-050840-

MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT
CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL
CHARLES DORCHESTER FREDERICK
HARFORD HOWARD KENT
MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES QUEEN ANNE'S
ST. MARYS SOMERSET TALBOT
WICOMICO WORCESTER


MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

BALTIMORE CITY
$$


NCC015-029-033-041-053-073-091-131-139-143-050840-

NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERTIE CAMDEN CASWELL
CHOWAN CURRITUCK GATES
HERTFORD NORTHAMPTON PASQUOTANK
PERQUIMANS
$$


VAC001-003-007-011-013-025-029-033-036-037-041-047-049-053-057-
059-061-065-073-075-079-081-083-085-087-093-095-097-099-101-103-
107-109-111-113-115-117-119-127-131-133-135-137-145-147-149-153-
157-159-175-177-179-181-183-193-199-510-540-550-570-595-600-610-
620-630-650-670-683-685-700-710-730-735-740-760-800-810-830-
050840-

VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ACCOMACK ALBEMARLE AMELIA
APPOMATTOX ARLINGTON BRUNSWICK
BUCKINGHAM CAROLINE CHARLES CITY
CHARLOTTE CHESTERFIELD CULPEPER
CUMBERLAND DINWIDDIE ESSEX
FAIRFAX FAUQUIER FLUVANNA
GLOUCESTER GOOCHLAND GREENE
GREENSVILLE HALIFAX HANOVER
HENRICO ISLE OF WIGHT JAMES CITY
KING AND QUEEN KING GEORGE KING WILLIAM
LANCASTER LOUDOUN LOUISA
LUNENBURG MADISON MATHEWS
MECKLENBURG MIDDLESEX NEW KENT
NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND NOTTOWAY
ORANGE POWHATAN PRINCE EDWARD
PRINCE GEORGE PRINCE WILLIAM RAPPAHANNOCK
RICHMOND SOUTHAMPTON SPOTSYLVANIA
STAFFORD SURRY SUSSEX
WESTMORELAND YORK


VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

ALEXANDRIA CHARLOTTESVILLE CHESAPEAKE
COLONIAL HEIGHTS EMPORIA FAIRFAX
FALLS CHURCH FRANKLIN FREDERICKSBURG
HAMPTON HOPEWELL MANASSAS
MANASSAS PARK NEWPORT NEWS NORFOLK
PETERSBURG POQUOSON PORTSMOUTH
RICHMOND SUFFOLK VIRGINIA BEACH
WILLIAMSBURG
$$


ANZ430-530-531-532-533-534-535-536-537-538-539-540-541-542-543-
630-631-632-633-050840-

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE

CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA

TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD

TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD

TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA

PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR

CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD

EASTERN BAY

CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER

PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD

TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA

CURRITUCK SOUND

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$


Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Very Low Very Low


Please visit the National Weather Service Interactive Weather Information Network (IWIN) for more information on the warnings.

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Very Low Very Low


Note: Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (40%)


Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (20%)


Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (60%)


Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (30%)


Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Low (<5%)


Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Low (<5%)


Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (80%)



For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.



Go to md0361 discussion

[angelwing]

Mesoscale Discussion 364
< Previous MD Next MD >



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0364
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0525 AM CDT TUE APR 05 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME ERN PA...NJ...SERN NY...SWRN CT.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104...

VALID 051025Z - 051230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104
CONTINUES.

WW MAY BE CLEARED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTION.

NRN PORTION OF EXTENSIVE/DAMAGING QLCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING ENEWD 30-35 KT...THROUGH NARROW CORRIDOR OF MRGLLY FAVORABLE
MOISTURE/THETAE OVER DE RIVER REGION. MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE DAMAGING GUSTS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SMALL-SCALE BOW/LEWP
SURGES...UNTIL ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS RELATIVELY COLD/STABLE MARINE
LAYER FROM NEAR NYC NNWWD ALONG JERSEY SHORE. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
IS WEAK...WITH LAPSE RATES ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOIST-ADIABATIC IN
LOW-MIDDLE LEVELS...EVEN 50-100 J/KG MUCAPE EVIDENT IN FCST
SOUNDINGS WILL SUPPORT MAINTENANCE OF CONVECTION AMIDST REGIME OF
STG FORCED ASCENT. MOMENTUM FROM VERY STG WINDS JUST ABOVE SFC --
I.E. 50-80 KT IN 700-925 MB LAYER -- MAY BE TRANSPORTED TO SFC IN
DOWNDRAFTS.

CONVECTIVE BAND MAY PERSIST EWD OVER RELATIVELY COLD BOUNDARY LAYER
AND ACROSS SERN NY/SERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH ELEVATED INFLOW OF
NEUTRALLY TO WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR ATOP MARINE LAYER. WHILE
STG-DAMAGING GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THIS REGION...POTENTIAL
IS MUCH MORE CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED THAN WITHIN WW...GIVEN STG STATIC
STABILITY OF MARINE LAYER THAT DEEPENS WITH EWD EXTENT.

..EDWARDS.. 04/05/2011


ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...

LAT...LON 38917495 39497548 40847526 41297410 41287319 40687298
40577360 40577381 40537389 40607397 40477422 40447395
39687411 39167466 38917495

[angelwing]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 101
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
DELAWARE
EASTERN MARYLAND
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 220 AM UNTIL 1000 AM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ROANOKE RAPIDS NORTH CAROLINA
TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF BALTIMORE MARYLAND. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 99. WATCH NUMBER 99 WILL NOT BE IN
EFFECT AFTER 220 AM EDT. CONTINUE...WW 97...WW 98...WW 100...

DISCUSSION...BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS EMERGING FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SUPERCELL AND LEWP CHARACTERISTICS AS IT RACES
NEWD ACROSS THE WW AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED BY
AMBIENT STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND INTERACTION OF CONVECTIVE BAND
WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RETREATING NWD THROUGH THE REGION.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25050.