Severe Weather May 29th-30th
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Severe Weather May 29th-30th
Looks like a possible Moderate risk day over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota. Probably not huge, but enough to get a thread.
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CrazyC83
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- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Derecho underway. Probs are 95/70. Watch should be PDS as a result.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 394
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
855 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST IOWA
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
NORTHWEST INDIANA
EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSOURI
LAKE MICHIGAN
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 855 AM UNTIL 400
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA TO 10 MILES NORTH OF VALPARAISO
INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...AN ORGANIZING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER IA IS FORECAST
TO ACCELERATE AND TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA
TODAY. RAPID LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE
STORMS...COUPLED WITH INCREASING MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION...WILL POSE
A RISK OF A LONG-LIVED BOW ECHO AND RESULTING DERECHO. STORMS MAY
AFFECT THE CHI METRO AREA AS EARLY AS 18Z.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25040.
...HART
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 394
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
855 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST IOWA
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
NORTHWEST INDIANA
EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSOURI
LAKE MICHIGAN
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 855 AM UNTIL 400
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA TO 10 MILES NORTH OF VALPARAISO
INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...AN ORGANIZING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER IA IS FORECAST
TO ACCELERATE AND TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA
TODAY. RAPID LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE
STORMS...COUPLED WITH INCREASING MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION...WILL POSE
A RISK OF A LONG-LIVED BOW ECHO AND RESULTING DERECHO. STORMS MAY
AFFECT THE CHI METRO AREA AS EARLY AS 18Z.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25040.
...HART
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather May 30th
Surprised the 45 is not hatched.
SPC AC 291619
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011
VALID 291630Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NORTHERN IL...NORTHERN
IND...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MI...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND EASTWARD TO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...
...IL TO LOWER MI...
A WELL-DEVELOPED BOW ECHO HAS FORMED THIS MORNING OVER NORTHEAST IL.
THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT INTO PORTIONS OF IND AND LOWER MI BY
EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A STRONG UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS...STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND AMPLE INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A LONG-LIVED
BOW AND RESULTING DERECHO EVENT. THEREFORE...HAVE UPGRADED TO
MODERATE RISK IN THIS REGION.
...NY INTO NEW ENGLAND...
FARTHER EAST...SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONG WESTERLIES EXTENDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. IT APPEARS LIKELY
THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NY/VT AND SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER REGION INTO
WESTERN ME. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS EVEN SOME
POTENTIAL THAT THE SEVERE MCS OVER IL WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY AND
MOVE INTO NY TONIGHT.
...TX/OK/KS/NEB...
THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON FROM
THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHEAST
NEB. STRONG HEATING WEST OF THE DRYLINE COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE BY EARLY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. CONCENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE
THE HIGHEST THREAT OF INITIATION WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST TX
PANHANDLE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KS...AND PERHAPS OVER NORTHEAST
KS/SOUTHEAST NEB. THESE STORMS MAY NOT MOVE VERY FAR AWAY FROM THE
DRYLINE DUE TO CAPPING OVER THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THOSE STORMS
THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
...SD/MN/IA/WI...
A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RESULTING IN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB/SD/IA. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER NORTHERN IA/SOUTHERN MN THIS
EVENING...AND FARTHER WEST OVER SD TONIGHT. THE STORMS THAT FORM
WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR TO POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL.
..HART/GRAMS.. 05/29/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1627Z (12:27PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
SPC AC 291619
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011
VALID 291630Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NORTHERN IL...NORTHERN
IND...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MI...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND EASTWARD TO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...
...IL TO LOWER MI...
A WELL-DEVELOPED BOW ECHO HAS FORMED THIS MORNING OVER NORTHEAST IL.
THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT INTO PORTIONS OF IND AND LOWER MI BY
EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A STRONG UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS...STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND AMPLE INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A LONG-LIVED
BOW AND RESULTING DERECHO EVENT. THEREFORE...HAVE UPGRADED TO
MODERATE RISK IN THIS REGION.
...NY INTO NEW ENGLAND...
FARTHER EAST...SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONG WESTERLIES EXTENDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. IT APPEARS LIKELY
THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NY/VT AND SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER REGION INTO
WESTERN ME. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS EVEN SOME
POTENTIAL THAT THE SEVERE MCS OVER IL WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY AND
MOVE INTO NY TONIGHT.
...TX/OK/KS/NEB...
THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON FROM
THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHEAST
NEB. STRONG HEATING WEST OF THE DRYLINE COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE BY EARLY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. CONCENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE
THE HIGHEST THREAT OF INITIATION WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST TX
PANHANDLE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KS...AND PERHAPS OVER NORTHEAST
KS/SOUTHEAST NEB. THESE STORMS MAY NOT MOVE VERY FAR AWAY FROM THE
DRYLINE DUE TO CAPPING OVER THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THOSE STORMS
THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
...SD/MN/IA/WI...
A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RESULTING IN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB/SD/IA. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER NORTHERN IA/SOUTHERN MN THIS
EVENING...AND FARTHER WEST OVER SD TONIGHT. THE STORMS THAT FORM
WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR TO POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL.
..HART/GRAMS.. 05/29/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1627Z (12:27PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather May 30th
New watch coming.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1014
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...NRN IND...SRN LOWER MI...NWRN OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 394...
VALID 291659Z - 291800Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 394
CONTINUES.
BOWING QLCS OVER N-CNTRL IL WILL LIKELY TRACK EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NRN IND...SRN LOWER MI AND NWRN OH THIS AFTERNOON. A DOWNSTREAM WW
WILL BE ISSUED BY 18Z.
RECENT FORWARD PROPAGATION SPEED OF 45-50 KT WITH THE BOWING SEGMENT
MOVING ACROSS N-CNTRL IL WOULD EXTRAPOLATE TO THE ERN EDGE OF WW 394
AROUND 19Z. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS CONTINUES TO HEAT AND DESTABILIZE
WITH WARM FRONT /ROUGHLY FROM 20 S VPZ TO DTW/ GRADUALLY SHIFTING
NWD . MODIFIED 12Z ILX RAOB SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE RISING AOA 2000 J/KG/ ALONG WITH 40-50 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MODEST...THE PRESENCE
OF A WELL-DEVELOPED BOWING STRUCTURE ALONG WITH THE WARM/MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER COULD FAVOR BRIEF TORNADOES AS WELL.
..GRAMS.. 05/29/2011
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...
LAT...LON 40488984 41258910 41858901 42498621 42698370 42508312
41828283 41418308 40998375 40658538 40528689 40488984
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1014
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...NRN IND...SRN LOWER MI...NWRN OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 394...
VALID 291659Z - 291800Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 394
CONTINUES.
BOWING QLCS OVER N-CNTRL IL WILL LIKELY TRACK EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NRN IND...SRN LOWER MI AND NWRN OH THIS AFTERNOON. A DOWNSTREAM WW
WILL BE ISSUED BY 18Z.
RECENT FORWARD PROPAGATION SPEED OF 45-50 KT WITH THE BOWING SEGMENT
MOVING ACROSS N-CNTRL IL WOULD EXTRAPOLATE TO THE ERN EDGE OF WW 394
AROUND 19Z. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS CONTINUES TO HEAT AND DESTABILIZE
WITH WARM FRONT /ROUGHLY FROM 20 S VPZ TO DTW/ GRADUALLY SHIFTING
NWD . MODIFIED 12Z ILX RAOB SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE RISING AOA 2000 J/KG/ ALONG WITH 40-50 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MODEST...THE PRESENCE
OF A WELL-DEVELOPED BOWING STRUCTURE ALONG WITH THE WARM/MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER COULD FAVOR BRIEF TORNADOES AS WELL.
..GRAMS.. 05/29/2011
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...
LAT...LON 40488984 41258910 41858901 42498621 42698370 42508312
41828283 41418308 40998375 40658538 40528689 40488984
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CrazyC83
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- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1015
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 291702Z - 291800Z
A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON FROM WRN NY
ENEWD INTO ERN NY AND VT. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS STORMS INITIATE AND INTENSIFY. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S F ACROSS MUCH OF WRN
AND CNTRL NY WHERE MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS INITIATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. AS
STORMS INITIATE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND TO THE EAST OF LAKE
ERIE...A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP DUE TO MODERATE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR PROFILES ALREADY IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES SHOULD INCREASE AS A WELL-DEFINED JET NEAR 700 MB MOVES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WNW. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WIND
DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE
ACTIVITY.
..BROYLES.. 05/29/2011
ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 43707663 43217834 42787899 42427919 42127885 42067808
42237690 42687459 43177314 44107312 43957515 43707663
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 291702Z - 291800Z
A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON FROM WRN NY
ENEWD INTO ERN NY AND VT. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS STORMS INITIATE AND INTENSIFY. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S F ACROSS MUCH OF WRN
AND CNTRL NY WHERE MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS INITIATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. AS
STORMS INITIATE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND TO THE EAST OF LAKE
ERIE...A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP DUE TO MODERATE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR PROFILES ALREADY IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES SHOULD INCREASE AS A WELL-DEFINED JET NEAR 700 MB MOVES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WNW. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WIND
DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE
ACTIVITY.
..BROYLES.. 05/29/2011
ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 43707663 43217834 42787899 42427919 42127885 42067808
42237690 42687459 43177314 44107312 43957515 43707663
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather May 30th
Getting serious now.
WWUS53 KLOT 291720
SVSLOT
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1220 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011
ILC037-043-053-063-089-091-093-099-103-105-141-197-291815-
/O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-110529T1815Z/
KANE IL-KANKAKEE IL-KENDALL IL-LA SALLE IL-LIVINGSTON IL-OGLE IL-
WILL IL-GRUNDY IL-DE KALB IL-DUPAGE IL-FORD IL-LEE IL-
1220 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
LEE...NORTHEASTERN FORD...WESTERN DUPAGE...DE KALB...GRUNDY...WESTERN
WILL...SOUTHERN OGLE...LIVINGSTON...EASTERN LA SALLE...KENDALL...
WESTERN KANKAKEE AND KANE COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM CDT...
AT 1214 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH.
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF STILLMAN VALLEY TO SENECA TO DANVERS...MOVING EAST AT 55
MPH.
IN ADDITION...AT 1140 AM CDT...75 MPH WINDS WERE REPORTED IN
GRANVILLE ILLINOIS IN PUTNAM COUNTY WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MORRIS...SANDWICH...DE KALB...LITTLE ROCK...PLANO...PONTIAC...
DWIGHT...YORKVILLE...SYCAMORE...MINOOKA...GENOA...CHANNAHON...
WILMINGTON...OSWEGO...FAIRBURY...PLAINFIELD...JOLIET...AURORA...
BATAVIA AND GENEVA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS STORM HAS EXHIBITED SOME WEAK ROTATION. TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP
QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE... SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.
&&
LAT...LON 4215 8834 4134 8784 4060 8846 4062 8858
4075 8859 4075 8894 4090 8894 4124 8873
4188 8909 4187 8964 4192 8963 4193 8969
4204 8969
TIME...MOT...LOC 1719Z 265DEG 47KT 4205 8902 4131 8847
4054 8910
WIND...HAIL 80MPH 1.00IN
$$
RATZER
WWUS53 KLOT 291720
SVSLOT
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1220 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011
ILC037-043-053-063-089-091-093-099-103-105-141-197-291815-
/O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-110529T1815Z/
KANE IL-KANKAKEE IL-KENDALL IL-LA SALLE IL-LIVINGSTON IL-OGLE IL-
WILL IL-GRUNDY IL-DE KALB IL-DUPAGE IL-FORD IL-LEE IL-
1220 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
LEE...NORTHEASTERN FORD...WESTERN DUPAGE...DE KALB...GRUNDY...WESTERN
WILL...SOUTHERN OGLE...LIVINGSTON...EASTERN LA SALLE...KENDALL...
WESTERN KANKAKEE AND KANE COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM CDT...
AT 1214 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH.
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF STILLMAN VALLEY TO SENECA TO DANVERS...MOVING EAST AT 55
MPH.
IN ADDITION...AT 1140 AM CDT...75 MPH WINDS WERE REPORTED IN
GRANVILLE ILLINOIS IN PUTNAM COUNTY WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MORRIS...SANDWICH...DE KALB...LITTLE ROCK...PLANO...PONTIAC...
DWIGHT...YORKVILLE...SYCAMORE...MINOOKA...GENOA...CHANNAHON...
WILMINGTON...OSWEGO...FAIRBURY...PLAINFIELD...JOLIET...AURORA...
BATAVIA AND GENEVA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS STORM HAS EXHIBITED SOME WEAK ROTATION. TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP
QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE... SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.
&&
LAT...LON 4215 8834 4134 8784 4060 8846 4062 8858
4075 8859 4075 8894 4090 8894 4124 8873
4188 8909 4187 8964 4192 8963 4193 8969
4204 8969
TIME...MOT...LOC 1719Z 265DEG 47KT 4205 8902 4131 8847
4054 8910
WIND...HAIL 80MPH 1.00IN
$$
RATZER
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather May 30th
Tornado probs 50/20. Wind 95/70. I guess the thought is shear will increase.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 395
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN INDIANA
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NORTHWEST OHIO
LAKE ERIE
LAKE HURON
LAKE MICHIGAN
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL 800
PM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
VALPARAISO INDIANA TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MOUNT CLEMENS
MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 394...
DISCUSSION...A FAST-MOVING BOW ECHO COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN IL WILL
TRACK RAPIDLY EASTWARD AT 45-50 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA TODAY.
A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT /DERECHO/ IS POSSIBLE. RAPID
DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED AHEAD OF THE BOW AS THE WARM FROM
RETREATS... SUGGESTING BOW MAY MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY OF WARM FRONT...
COUPLED WITH HIGH LEVEL OF MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF BOW SUPPORTS A
THREAT OF QLCS TORNADOES ALONG THE BOW...AS WELL AS ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE BOW.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.
...HART
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 395
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN INDIANA
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NORTHWEST OHIO
LAKE ERIE
LAKE HURON
LAKE MICHIGAN
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL 800
PM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
VALPARAISO INDIANA TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MOUNT CLEMENS
MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 394...
DISCUSSION...A FAST-MOVING BOW ECHO COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN IL WILL
TRACK RAPIDLY EASTWARD AT 45-50 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA TODAY.
A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT /DERECHO/ IS POSSIBLE. RAPID
DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED AHEAD OF THE BOW AS THE WARM FROM
RETREATS... SUGGESTING BOW MAY MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY OF WARM FRONT...
COUPLED WITH HIGH LEVEL OF MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF BOW SUPPORTS A
THREAT OF QLCS TORNADOES ALONG THE BOW...AS WELL AS ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE BOW.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.
...HART
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
TORNADO WARNING
ILC063-091-105-197-291815-
/O.NEW.KLOT.TO.W.0013.110529T1732Z-110529T1815Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1232 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN GRUNDY COUNTY...
KANKAKEE COUNTY...
NORTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY...
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN WILL COUNTY...
* UNTIL 115 PM CDT
* AT 1228 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DWIGHT...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOURBONNAIS...KANKAKEE...BRADLEY...MANTENO...MOMENCE...GARDNER...
BRACEVILLE...HERSCHER...AROMA PARK...ST. ANNE...GRANT PARK...
HOPKINS PARK...SOUTH WILMINGTON...EAST BROOKLYN...GODLEY...
REDDICK...ESSEX...BUCKINGHAM...UNION HILL AND BONFIELD.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.
&&
LAT...LON 4101 8771 4107 8848 4124 8844 4128 8753
4101 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 1732Z 274DEG 49KT 4115 8836
$$
RATZER
ILC063-091-105-197-291815-
/O.NEW.KLOT.TO.W.0013.110529T1732Z-110529T1815Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1232 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN GRUNDY COUNTY...
KANKAKEE COUNTY...
NORTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY...
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN WILL COUNTY...
* UNTIL 115 PM CDT
* AT 1228 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DWIGHT...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOURBONNAIS...KANKAKEE...BRADLEY...MANTENO...MOMENCE...GARDNER...
BRACEVILLE...HERSCHER...AROMA PARK...ST. ANNE...GRANT PARK...
HOPKINS PARK...SOUTH WILMINGTON...EAST BROOKLYN...GODLEY...
REDDICK...ESSEX...BUCKINGHAM...UNION HILL AND BONFIELD.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.
&&
LAT...LON 4101 8771 4107 8848 4124 8844 4128 8753
4101 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 1732Z 274DEG 49KT 4115 8836
$$
RATZER
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather May 30th
Most of Chicagoland in this one.
WUUS53 KLOT 291743
SVRLOT
ILC031-043-053-063-075-089-091-093-097-105-197-INC007-073-089-111-
127-291900-
/O.NEW.KLOT.SV.W.0070.110529T1743Z-110529T1900Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1243 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
FORD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
EASTERN GRUNDY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
IROQUOIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
EASTERN KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
KANKAKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
EASTERN KENDALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
EASTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
WESTERN BENTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...
JASPER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...
LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...
NEWTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...
PORTER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...
* UNTIL 200 PM CDT/300 PM EDT/
* AT 1237 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH.
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GENOA TO
WILMINGTON TO GARDNER TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FAIRBURY...AND MOVING
EAST AT 60 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PLAINFIELD...AURORA...JOLIET...BATAVIA...GENEVA...INGALLS PARK...
ST. CHARLES...GIBSON CITY...ROMEOVILLE...LOCKPORT...NAPERVILLE...
NEW LENOX...DUPAGE AIRPORT...WEST CHICAGO...BOLINGBROOK...ELGIN...
SLEEPY HOLLOW...PIPER CITY...LISLE AND CARPENTERSVILLE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...LARGE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS TO 75
MPH. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS! THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS ESPECIALLY HIGH ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80.
INTENSE SQUALL LINES CAN OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES IN
ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.
&&
LAT...LON 4040 8847 4061 8846 4062 8858 4075 8859
4076 8864 4135 8824 4215 8846 4215 8820
4221 8779 4208 8767 4184 8760 4170 8751
4169 8742 4165 8742 4163 8722 4171 8693
4108 8693 4047 8737 4048 8793 4040 8793
TIME...MOT...LOC 1741Z 270DEG 53KT 4209 8857 4135 8807
4114 8820 4069 8853
WIND...HAIL 80MPH 1.00IN
$$
RATZER
WUUS53 KLOT 291743
SVRLOT
ILC031-043-053-063-075-089-091-093-097-105-197-INC007-073-089-111-
127-291900-
/O.NEW.KLOT.SV.W.0070.110529T1743Z-110529T1900Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1243 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
FORD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
EASTERN GRUNDY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
IROQUOIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
EASTERN KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
KANKAKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
EASTERN KENDALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
EASTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
WESTERN BENTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...
JASPER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...
LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...
NEWTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...
PORTER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...
* UNTIL 200 PM CDT/300 PM EDT/
* AT 1237 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH.
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GENOA TO
WILMINGTON TO GARDNER TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FAIRBURY...AND MOVING
EAST AT 60 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PLAINFIELD...AURORA...JOLIET...BATAVIA...GENEVA...INGALLS PARK...
ST. CHARLES...GIBSON CITY...ROMEOVILLE...LOCKPORT...NAPERVILLE...
NEW LENOX...DUPAGE AIRPORT...WEST CHICAGO...BOLINGBROOK...ELGIN...
SLEEPY HOLLOW...PIPER CITY...LISLE AND CARPENTERSVILLE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...LARGE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS TO 75
MPH. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS! THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS ESPECIALLY HIGH ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80.
INTENSE SQUALL LINES CAN OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES IN
ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.
&&
LAT...LON 4040 8847 4061 8846 4062 8858 4075 8859
4076 8864 4135 8824 4215 8846 4215 8820
4221 8779 4208 8767 4184 8760 4170 8751
4169 8742 4165 8742 4163 8722 4171 8693
4108 8693 4047 8737 4048 8793 4040 8793
TIME...MOT...LOC 1741Z 270DEG 53KT 4209 8857 4135 8807
4114 8820 4069 8853
WIND...HAIL 80MPH 1.00IN
$$
RATZER
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather May 30th
MDT tomorrow now.
SPC AC 291739
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDS FROM FAR SERN ND...ERN
SD...FAR NERN NEB INTO MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL/SWRN MN AND FAR NWRN
IA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
AREA EXTENDING FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS/MN SWD TO THE SRN PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY WILL
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND DEEPEN ON MONDAY AS IT TRACKS TOWARD AND
INTO THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG JET STREAK AND ATTENDANT MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE WRN TROUGH BY 12Z MONDAY
WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
12Z TUESDAY. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW INITIALLY LOCATED OVER THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE NEWD THROUGH WRN ND TO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA...AND APPEARS TO EVOLVE INTO MORE OF AN OCCLUSION BY
LATE DAY 2/EARLY DAY 3. MEANWHILE...A DRY LINE WILL BECOME DEFINED
FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH CENTRAL KS/NEB TO ERN SD AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES NWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. A COLD FRONT
WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... OVERTAKING THE
DRY LINE AND PROGRESSING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATER MONDAY
NIGHT.
...ERN DAKOTAS/UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
NEGATIVE-TILT OF UPPER TROUGH INTO THE NRN PLAINS...STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELDS/SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SUPPORT AN UPGRADE TO A
MODERATE RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO AND
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS/MID MO VALLEY TO
UPPER MS VALLEY. SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL MAINTAIN
NWD MOISTURE RETURN WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S
REACHING THE NRN EXTENT OF THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE ERN
DAKOTAS/UPPER MS VALLEY MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. PLUME OF STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING NNEWD ALONG AND E OF THE DRY LINE
COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 2000-2500 J PER KG/. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER ASCENT AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...THE STRONG CAP ALONG THE DRY LINE
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY MID AFTERNOON SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /45-55
KT/ WITH VECTORS GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE DRY LINE/COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH A LINEAR MODE SHOULD BE
PREDOMINATE..SOME CROSSING OF THE SHEAR VECTORS TO THE INITIATING
BOUNDARIES SUGGESTS EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THESE FACTORS...ALL FACETS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRENGTHENING WIND
FIELDS AND GREATER LINEAR FORCING AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE
NEGATIVELY-TILTED SUGGESTS AN MCS WITH AN ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND
THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE INTO WRN MN AND NWRN IA.
...WRN OK AND WRN TX...
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN MOIST WARM SECTOR
ACROSS WRN OK AND WRN TX. A STRONG EML WILL CAP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...BUT A FEW STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SWD THROUGH WRN OK AND WRN
TX WITHIN ZONE OF MIXING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
BENEATH DIFFLUENT FLOW REGIME BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL
EXIST ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF STRONGER 700-500 MB FLOW WITH
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VECTORS /AROUND 40 KT/ CROSSING THE DRY LINE. THIS
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THE PRIMARY THREATS SHOULD BE LARGE
HAIL...SOME VERY LARGE...AND DAMAGING WINDS. LATEST MODELS DO
SUGGEST THAT A TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. GIVEN
GREATER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS FOR A SIMILAR THREAT WITH SWD
EXTENT INTO WRN TX...THIS OUTLOOK HAS EXTENDED THE SLIGHT RISK
FARTHER S.
..PETERS.. 05/29/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1748Z (1:48PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
SPC AC 291739
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDS FROM FAR SERN ND...ERN
SD...FAR NERN NEB INTO MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL/SWRN MN AND FAR NWRN
IA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
AREA EXTENDING FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS/MN SWD TO THE SRN PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY WILL
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND DEEPEN ON MONDAY AS IT TRACKS TOWARD AND
INTO THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG JET STREAK AND ATTENDANT MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE WRN TROUGH BY 12Z MONDAY
WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
12Z TUESDAY. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW INITIALLY LOCATED OVER THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE NEWD THROUGH WRN ND TO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA...AND APPEARS TO EVOLVE INTO MORE OF AN OCCLUSION BY
LATE DAY 2/EARLY DAY 3. MEANWHILE...A DRY LINE WILL BECOME DEFINED
FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH CENTRAL KS/NEB TO ERN SD AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES NWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. A COLD FRONT
WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... OVERTAKING THE
DRY LINE AND PROGRESSING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATER MONDAY
NIGHT.
...ERN DAKOTAS/UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
NEGATIVE-TILT OF UPPER TROUGH INTO THE NRN PLAINS...STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELDS/SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SUPPORT AN UPGRADE TO A
MODERATE RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO AND
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS/MID MO VALLEY TO
UPPER MS VALLEY. SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL MAINTAIN
NWD MOISTURE RETURN WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S
REACHING THE NRN EXTENT OF THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE ERN
DAKOTAS/UPPER MS VALLEY MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. PLUME OF STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING NNEWD ALONG AND E OF THE DRY LINE
COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 2000-2500 J PER KG/. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER ASCENT AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...THE STRONG CAP ALONG THE DRY LINE
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY MID AFTERNOON SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /45-55
KT/ WITH VECTORS GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE DRY LINE/COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH A LINEAR MODE SHOULD BE
PREDOMINATE..SOME CROSSING OF THE SHEAR VECTORS TO THE INITIATING
BOUNDARIES SUGGESTS EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THESE FACTORS...ALL FACETS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRENGTHENING WIND
FIELDS AND GREATER LINEAR FORCING AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE
NEGATIVELY-TILTED SUGGESTS AN MCS WITH AN ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND
THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE INTO WRN MN AND NWRN IA.
...WRN OK AND WRN TX...
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN MOIST WARM SECTOR
ACROSS WRN OK AND WRN TX. A STRONG EML WILL CAP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...BUT A FEW STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SWD THROUGH WRN OK AND WRN
TX WITHIN ZONE OF MIXING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
BENEATH DIFFLUENT FLOW REGIME BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL
EXIST ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF STRONGER 700-500 MB FLOW WITH
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VECTORS /AROUND 40 KT/ CROSSING THE DRY LINE. THIS
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THE PRIMARY THREATS SHOULD BE LARGE
HAIL...SOME VERY LARGE...AND DAMAGING WINDS. LATEST MODELS DO
SUGGEST THAT A TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. GIVEN
GREATER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS FOR A SIMILAR THREAT WITH SWD
EXTENT INTO WRN TX...THIS OUTLOOK HAS EXTENDED THE SLIGHT RISK
FARTHER S.
..PETERS.. 05/29/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1748Z (1:48PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SPC AC 292000
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011
VALID 292000Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR MUCH OF SRN LOWER MI...NERN
IND AND NWRN OH...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND EASTWARD TO WRN NEW ENGLAND...
...ERN IA/NRN IL TO SRN LOWER MI/NRN IND/NRN OH...
TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY OF WELL ORGANIZED FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS/BOW ECHO...NOW MOVING THROUGH SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN
IND...SUGGEST A CONTINUED ENEWD TRACK. DOWNSTREAM MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS SRN LOWER MI AND NRN OH WILL SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO AND HAVE EXPANDED THE MODERATE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS EWD.
MEANWHILE...THE WRN PART OF THE SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES AND
CORRESPONDING SLIGHT/MODERATE RISK AREAS HAVE BEEN DECREASED IN
AREAL EXTENT OVER ERN IA/NRN IL AND NWRN IND WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS
BEEN CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED. IN ADDITION...RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THIS LATTER REGION AND WARM EML SPREADING NNEWD ARE EFFECTIVELY
CAPPING MUCH OF THE MIDWEST TO NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
...CENTRAL KS TO WRN OK/TX PANHANDLE AND TX SOUTH PLAINS...
LATEST EXPERIMENTAL WRF-HRRR IS SUGGESTING TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE DRY LINE IN SRN KS TO SERN NEB WITH MODERATE TO VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS.
GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL AS WELL AS SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING A THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT...THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED EWD SOME AND SWD.
..PETERS.. 05/29/2011
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011
VALID 292000Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR MUCH OF SRN LOWER MI...NERN
IND AND NWRN OH...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND EASTWARD TO WRN NEW ENGLAND...
...ERN IA/NRN IL TO SRN LOWER MI/NRN IND/NRN OH...
TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY OF WELL ORGANIZED FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS/BOW ECHO...NOW MOVING THROUGH SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN
IND...SUGGEST A CONTINUED ENEWD TRACK. DOWNSTREAM MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS SRN LOWER MI AND NRN OH WILL SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO AND HAVE EXPANDED THE MODERATE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS EWD.
MEANWHILE...THE WRN PART OF THE SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES AND
CORRESPONDING SLIGHT/MODERATE RISK AREAS HAVE BEEN DECREASED IN
AREAL EXTENT OVER ERN IA/NRN IL AND NWRN IND WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS
BEEN CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED. IN ADDITION...RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THIS LATTER REGION AND WARM EML SPREADING NNEWD ARE EFFECTIVELY
CAPPING MUCH OF THE MIDWEST TO NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
...CENTRAL KS TO WRN OK/TX PANHANDLE AND TX SOUTH PLAINS...
LATEST EXPERIMENTAL WRF-HRRR IS SUGGESTING TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE DRY LINE IN SRN KS TO SERN NEB WITH MODERATE TO VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS.
GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL AS WELL AS SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING A THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT...THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED EWD SOME AND SWD.
..PETERS.. 05/29/2011
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather May 29th-30th
SPC AC 301239
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2011
VALID 301300Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL NEB TO ERN SD...WRN MN...AND EXTREME SE ND...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MN TO THE CENTRAL KS/OK
BORDER...
...NRN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...
A DEEP MIDLEVEL TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
EJECT NEWD TO THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A 70-90 KT
SSWLY 500 MB JET CORE. AN INITIAL REMNANT LEE CYCLONE NOW OVER
CENTRAL NEB WILL DEVELOP NNEWD TO THE ERN DAKOTAS...WHILE A
SECONDARY LEE CYCLONE IS MAINTAINED INVOF SW NEB THIS AFTERNOON. E
OF THE INITIAL CYCLONE...A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NWD...ALLOWING THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR TO SPREAD NWD INTO NRN MN/WI
BY LATE AFTERNOON. N OF THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING...ONGOING
ELEVATED STORMS OVER ERN ND/MN/NW WI WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD
WITH THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WAA...AND THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
AFTERNOON WARM SECTOR TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE OF
2500-3000 J/KG. A WARM EML ATOP THE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
CONFINE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO A NARROW ZONE ALONG THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL NEB NNEWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS.
STORMS WILL FIRST FORM AFTER 21Z IN CENTRAL NEB...JUST NE OF THE
WARMEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
CONVECTION WILL THEN DEVELOP NNEWD ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS
ERN SD AND SE ND/WRN MN THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE INITIAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR VECTORS LARGELY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND PERSISTENT FORCING FOR ASCENT BOTH SUGGEST
THAT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SQUALL LINE WILL OCCUR RATHER QUICKLY
AFTER STORM INITIATION. THUS...THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WILL
PEAK IN THE FIRST 2-3 HOURS AFTER INITIATION. THE THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE STORMS GROW UPSCALE INTO A
LINE...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR EMBEDDED BOWS MOVING QUICKLY NNEWD
ALONG THE LINE WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WIND
DAMAGE. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BOTH THE MORE
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EARLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEB...AS WELL AS WITH THE
BOWING SEGMENTS LATER IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FARTHER N INTO ERN
SD AND WRN MN THIS EVENING.
...CENTRAL KS/WRN OK/W TX AREA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT...
HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF 95-100 F ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND W OF A
DRYLINE TRAILING SWD FROM THE LEE CYCLONE IN SW NEB. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING
AS THE CAP IS REMOVED. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS CENTRAL KS/WRN OK
PORTIONS OF THE DRYLINE...WHILE FLOW ALOFT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WEAKEN
WITH SWD EXTENT INTO W TX. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE KS/OK PORTIONS OF THE DRYLINE AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES...BUT
RELATIVELY LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL TEMPER THIS
THREAT. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERNS.
...SRN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A RIDGE ALOFT...SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DRIFT SWWD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.
..THOMPSON/GARNER.. 05/30/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1529Z (11:29AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2011
VALID 301300Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL NEB TO ERN SD...WRN MN...AND EXTREME SE ND...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MN TO THE CENTRAL KS/OK
BORDER...
...NRN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...
A DEEP MIDLEVEL TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
EJECT NEWD TO THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A 70-90 KT
SSWLY 500 MB JET CORE. AN INITIAL REMNANT LEE CYCLONE NOW OVER
CENTRAL NEB WILL DEVELOP NNEWD TO THE ERN DAKOTAS...WHILE A
SECONDARY LEE CYCLONE IS MAINTAINED INVOF SW NEB THIS AFTERNOON. E
OF THE INITIAL CYCLONE...A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NWD...ALLOWING THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR TO SPREAD NWD INTO NRN MN/WI
BY LATE AFTERNOON. N OF THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING...ONGOING
ELEVATED STORMS OVER ERN ND/MN/NW WI WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD
WITH THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WAA...AND THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
AFTERNOON WARM SECTOR TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE OF
2500-3000 J/KG. A WARM EML ATOP THE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
CONFINE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO A NARROW ZONE ALONG THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL NEB NNEWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS.
STORMS WILL FIRST FORM AFTER 21Z IN CENTRAL NEB...JUST NE OF THE
WARMEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
CONVECTION WILL THEN DEVELOP NNEWD ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS
ERN SD AND SE ND/WRN MN THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE INITIAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR VECTORS LARGELY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND PERSISTENT FORCING FOR ASCENT BOTH SUGGEST
THAT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SQUALL LINE WILL OCCUR RATHER QUICKLY
AFTER STORM INITIATION. THUS...THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WILL
PEAK IN THE FIRST 2-3 HOURS AFTER INITIATION. THE THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE STORMS GROW UPSCALE INTO A
LINE...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR EMBEDDED BOWS MOVING QUICKLY NNEWD
ALONG THE LINE WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WIND
DAMAGE. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BOTH THE MORE
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EARLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEB...AS WELL AS WITH THE
BOWING SEGMENTS LATER IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FARTHER N INTO ERN
SD AND WRN MN THIS EVENING.
...CENTRAL KS/WRN OK/W TX AREA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT...
HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF 95-100 F ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND W OF A
DRYLINE TRAILING SWD FROM THE LEE CYCLONE IN SW NEB. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING
AS THE CAP IS REMOVED. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS CENTRAL KS/WRN OK
PORTIONS OF THE DRYLINE...WHILE FLOW ALOFT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WEAKEN
WITH SWD EXTENT INTO W TX. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE KS/OK PORTIONS OF THE DRYLINE AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES...BUT
RELATIVELY LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL TEMPER THIS
THREAT. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERNS.
...SRN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A RIDGE ALOFT...SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DRIFT SWWD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.
..THOMPSON/GARNER.. 05/30/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1529Z (11:29AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1025 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ANOKA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEASTERN CARVER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL CHISAGO COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHWESTERN DAKOTA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
HENNEPIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
RAMSEY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...
NORTHWESTERN ST. CROIX COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT
* AT 1024 AM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EDEN PRAIRIE...OR ABOUT 11 MILES SOUTH
OF PLYMOUTH...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
PLYMOUTH...
MINNEAPOLIS...
ST PAUL...
FOREST LAKE...
DEEPHAVEN...
BLOOMINGTON...
LONG LAKE...
WOODLAND...
THE LAKE MINNETONKA AREA...
WAYZATA...
EDINA...
HOPKINS...
RICHFIELD...
EAGAN...
Severe thunderstorm warning for 2 million people for quarter size hail and we wonder why people don't listen to warnings.
Even worse is the storm is already weakening and is going to impact about 15% of the polygon.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1025 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ANOKA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEASTERN CARVER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL CHISAGO COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHWESTERN DAKOTA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
HENNEPIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
RAMSEY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...
NORTHWESTERN ST. CROIX COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT
* AT 1024 AM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EDEN PRAIRIE...OR ABOUT 11 MILES SOUTH
OF PLYMOUTH...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
PLYMOUTH...
MINNEAPOLIS...
ST PAUL...
FOREST LAKE...
DEEPHAVEN...
BLOOMINGTON...
LONG LAKE...
WOODLAND...
THE LAKE MINNETONKA AREA...
WAYZATA...
EDINA...
HOPKINS...
RICHFIELD...
EAGAN...
Severe thunderstorm warning for 2 million people for quarter size hail and we wonder why people don't listen to warnings.
Even worse is the storm is already weakening and is going to impact about 15% of the polygon.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather May 29th-30th
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1029
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL NEB/EASTERN SD INTO SOUTHEAST ND/WESTERN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 301840Z - 302015Z
SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS INITIALLY ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL NEB INTO SOUTHEAST SD. ONE OR MORE
TORNADO WATCHES WILL BE NEEDED BY MID AFTERNOON /LIKELY BY 20Z/.
18Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS REFLECTS A 996 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS
EASTERN SD BETWEEN HURON AND ABERDEEN...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW INTO WESTERN NEB NEAR/WEST OF NORTH
PLATTE...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REFLECTING
AN INCREASING SURFACE BASED CU FIELD NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE COLD
FRONT /ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEB/. WITH STRONGER DPVA/IMPLIED ASCENT NOW
BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AN INCREASE
IN DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH AN ASSORTMENT OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
/INCLUDING EXPERIMENTAL HRRR/ INDICATIVE OF DEEP CONVECTION AS EARLY
AS 20-21Z.
AFOREMENTIONED ASCENT COUPLED WITH AMPLE PRE-FRONTAL HEATING AND
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING
CINH AMID MODERATE INSTABILITY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
STRENGTHENING/BUT LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD...INITIAL MODAL
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SOME TORNADOES/LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY. STORMS
SHOULD ULTIMATELY CONGEAL THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING...WITH MORE OF A
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT EVOLVING AS WELL.
..GUYER.. 05/30/2011
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 41320097 42809946 44969838 46039726 45889613 44649596
43879632 43109680 41709790 41059836 40479916 40630076
41320097
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL NEB/EASTERN SD INTO SOUTHEAST ND/WESTERN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 301840Z - 302015Z
SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS INITIALLY ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL NEB INTO SOUTHEAST SD. ONE OR MORE
TORNADO WATCHES WILL BE NEEDED BY MID AFTERNOON /LIKELY BY 20Z/.
18Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS REFLECTS A 996 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS
EASTERN SD BETWEEN HURON AND ABERDEEN...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW INTO WESTERN NEB NEAR/WEST OF NORTH
PLATTE...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REFLECTING
AN INCREASING SURFACE BASED CU FIELD NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE COLD
FRONT /ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEB/. WITH STRONGER DPVA/IMPLIED ASCENT NOW
BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AN INCREASE
IN DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH AN ASSORTMENT OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
/INCLUDING EXPERIMENTAL HRRR/ INDICATIVE OF DEEP CONVECTION AS EARLY
AS 20-21Z.
AFOREMENTIONED ASCENT COUPLED WITH AMPLE PRE-FRONTAL HEATING AND
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING
CINH AMID MODERATE INSTABILITY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
STRENGTHENING/BUT LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD...INITIAL MODAL
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SOME TORNADOES/LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY. STORMS
SHOULD ULTIMATELY CONGEAL THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING...WITH MORE OF A
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT EVOLVING AS WELL.
..GUYER.. 05/30/2011
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 41320097 42809946 44969838 46039726 45889613 44649596
43879632 43109680 41709790 41059836 40479916 40630076
41320097
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 402
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
BROOKINGS SOUTH DAKOTA TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MCCOOK
NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON ALONG THE
COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL NEB AND SOUTHEAST SD. THESE
STORMS WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS AHEAD OF THE STORMS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE A
FEW SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
OTHERWISE...EVOLUTION TO A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING
RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
...HART
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 402
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
BROOKINGS SOUTH DAKOTA TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MCCOOK
NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON ALONG THE
COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL NEB AND SOUTHEAST SD. THESE
STORMS WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS AHEAD OF THE STORMS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE A
FEW SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
OTHERWISE...EVOLUTION TO A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING
RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
...HART
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather May 29th-30th
SPC AC 301951
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011
VALID 302000Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...ERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST
IOWA...WESTERN MINNESOTA AND A PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
AREA...FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...
...20Z UPDATE...
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC LINES HAVE BEEN
MADE ...MOSTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE SURFACE
FRONT AND THE PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. THIS HAS GENERALLY RESULTED IN A
SOUTHEASTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF HIGHEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES RELATIVE
TO THE 1630Z OUTLOOK.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REASONING REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED FROM THAT
INDICATED IN THE PRIOR DISCUSSION AND APPENDED BELOW. AS A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH AND EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE ROCKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
...ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS LIKELY TO
WEAKEN INHIBITION IN SUCH A MANNER AS TO ALLOW RAPID WIDESPREAD
STORM FORMATION WITHIN THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AXIS.
IF STORMS MAINTAIN A DISCRETE NATURE AS THE SOUTHERLY PRE-FRONTAL
LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING /GUIDANCE INDICATES UP TO
AROUND 70+ KT AT 850 MB/...VERY LARGE CLOCKWISE-CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES. HOWEVER... IT
STILL APPEARS THAT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS MAY BE FAIRLY
SMALL...WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO A QUICK
UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG TO EXTREME SURFACE
GUSTS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MODERATE RISK
AREA.
..KERR.. 05/30/2011
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011
VALID 302000Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...ERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST
IOWA...WESTERN MINNESOTA AND A PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
AREA...FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...
...20Z UPDATE...
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC LINES HAVE BEEN
MADE ...MOSTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE SURFACE
FRONT AND THE PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. THIS HAS GENERALLY RESULTED IN A
SOUTHEASTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF HIGHEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES RELATIVE
TO THE 1630Z OUTLOOK.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REASONING REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED FROM THAT
INDICATED IN THE PRIOR DISCUSSION AND APPENDED BELOW. AS A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH AND EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE ROCKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
...ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS LIKELY TO
WEAKEN INHIBITION IN SUCH A MANNER AS TO ALLOW RAPID WIDESPREAD
STORM FORMATION WITHIN THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AXIS.
IF STORMS MAINTAIN A DISCRETE NATURE AS THE SOUTHERLY PRE-FRONTAL
LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING /GUIDANCE INDICATES UP TO
AROUND 70+ KT AT 850 MB/...VERY LARGE CLOCKWISE-CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES. HOWEVER... IT
STILL APPEARS THAT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS MAY BE FAIRLY
SMALL...WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO A QUICK
UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG TO EXTREME SURFACE
GUSTS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MODERATE RISK
AREA.
..KERR.. 05/30/2011
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather May 29th-30th
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 403
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
355 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
WATERTOWN SOUTH DAKOTA TO 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF BEMIDJI
MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 402...
DISCUSSION...SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN MN. IN THE WAKE OF A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM
FRONT...ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED
SEVERE TSTMS. INITIAL MODE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL/TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH A QUASI-LINEAR EVOLUTION
LIKELY TO OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING INCLUDING A POTENTIALLY MORE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.
...GUYER/HART
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 403
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
355 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
WATERTOWN SOUTH DAKOTA TO 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF BEMIDJI
MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 402...
DISCUSSION...SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN MN. IN THE WAKE OF A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM
FRONT...ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED
SEVERE TSTMS. INITIAL MODE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL/TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH A QUASI-LINEAR EVOLUTION
LIKELY TO OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING INCLUDING A POTENTIALLY MORE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.
...GUYER/HART
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather May 29th-30th
Very serious situation. Many tornadoes and wind gusts well over 90 mph. If a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, it is likely to be PDS (although this is a Tornado Watch situation IMO).
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1035
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0813 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NEB/KS.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 402...
VALID 310113Z - 310245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 402 CONTINUES.
PORTIONS WW OVER NEB MAY BE REPLACED BEFORE 02Z BY SVR TSTM WW THAT
ALSO WOULD EXTEND SWD INTO KS.
SVR POTENTIAL FCST TO PERSIST PAST SCHEDULED 02Z WW EXPIRATION
TIME...EVOLVING INTO WIND-DOMINANT THREAT...WITH OCCASIONAL HAIL AND
BRIEF/QLCS-TYPE TORNADO POSSIBLE. SVR THREAT ALSO IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND SWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS AS COLD FRONT OVERTAKES BOTH DRYLINE
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN KS...AND PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE LINE
EXTENDING SWWD TO SERN CO. EXTENSIVE/CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED COLD
POOL CONTINUES TO SURGE EWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL NEB AND SEWD INTO
NWRN KS...CHARACTERIZED BY PRONOUNCED SFC PRESSURE PERTURBATIONS.
78 KT GUST WAS MEASURES AT 0055Z AT LXN AS THIS INTERACTION OCCURRED
NEARBY. SWD CONVECTIVE BACKBUILDING INTO KS IS FCST...AS FORCED
ASCENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL OVERCOMES STG CINH. THIS
PROCESS SHOULD RATHER RAPIDLY RELEASE 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE...AMIDST
40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES. THIS WILL EXPAND ORGANIZED/SVR
WIND THREAT SWD OVER KS AS WELL AS MAINTAIN/SHIFT WIND RISK EWD OVER
CENTRAL NEB.
..EDWARDS.. 05/31/2011
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 37340011 39539996 41159969 42309877 42579738 41709669
40169702 39249750 37319795 37340011
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1035
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0813 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NEB/KS.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 402...
VALID 310113Z - 310245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 402 CONTINUES.
PORTIONS WW OVER NEB MAY BE REPLACED BEFORE 02Z BY SVR TSTM WW THAT
ALSO WOULD EXTEND SWD INTO KS.
SVR POTENTIAL FCST TO PERSIST PAST SCHEDULED 02Z WW EXPIRATION
TIME...EVOLVING INTO WIND-DOMINANT THREAT...WITH OCCASIONAL HAIL AND
BRIEF/QLCS-TYPE TORNADO POSSIBLE. SVR THREAT ALSO IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND SWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS AS COLD FRONT OVERTAKES BOTH DRYLINE
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN KS...AND PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE LINE
EXTENDING SWWD TO SERN CO. EXTENSIVE/CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED COLD
POOL CONTINUES TO SURGE EWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL NEB AND SEWD INTO
NWRN KS...CHARACTERIZED BY PRONOUNCED SFC PRESSURE PERTURBATIONS.
78 KT GUST WAS MEASURES AT 0055Z AT LXN AS THIS INTERACTION OCCURRED
NEARBY. SWD CONVECTIVE BACKBUILDING INTO KS IS FCST...AS FORCED
ASCENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL OVERCOMES STG CINH. THIS
PROCESS SHOULD RATHER RAPIDLY RELEASE 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE...AMIDST
40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES. THIS WILL EXPAND ORGANIZED/SVR
WIND THREAT SWD OVER KS AS WELL AS MAINTAIN/SHIFT WIND RISK EWD OVER
CENTRAL NEB.
..EDWARDS.. 05/31/2011
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 37340011 39539996 41159969 42309877 42579738 41709669
40169702 39249750 37319795 37340011
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