SPC AC 181731
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN/HIGH PLAINS SEWD
ACROSS TO THE CAROLINAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY DEEP MID JUNE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE EWD
FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND INTO THE
PLAINS STATES BY EARLY MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...40-50 KT MID
LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO EXIST EAST OF THIS TROUGH AND EXTEND FROM THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...AND THEN SEWD INTO
THE CAROLINAS. WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COINCIDENT WITH AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER
DAY ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN EJECTING A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING MID/HIGH LEVEL SPEED MAX INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WITH 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF 30-60M.
WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET...SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM
AND DEEPEN NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER DURING THE DAY. AS THIS HAPPENS
...FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER PORTIONS OK/TX...WILL MOVE NWD AND
SHARPEN E-W ACROSS NRN KS AND INTO NRN MO AS A WARM FRONT. THE
COMBINATION OF SUSTAINED UPSLOPE FLOW...NORTH OF I-70 FROM NERN CO
INTO MT...AND APPROACHING UPPER IMPULSE SHOULD RESULT IN STORMS
FORMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS MID/LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG
INSTABILITY PLUS STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH
THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF THE FRONT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY
IN NEB AND EARLY ON WHEN STORMS ARE MORE DISCRETE. DURING THE
EVENING...LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 70 KT AND STORM OUTFLOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO AN INTENSE EWD MOVING LINEAR
MCS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NEB. THE MODELS INDICATE THESE
STORMS WILL MOVE NEWD WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW... THOUGH THE VEERING LOW
LEVEL JET SUGGESTS THE MCS/WIND THREAT SHOULD SPREAD MORE EWD INTO
PORTIONS OF NRN MO/IA OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALSO
RESULT IN STORMS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF MO/IL...
WITH SEVERE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS ALSO.
...TN/LOWER OH VALLEY SEWD INTO CAROLINAS...
MODELS HAVE A STRONG SIGNAL THAT AN OVERNIGHT MCS LIKELY WILL BE
ONGOING SOMEWHERE IN THE SERN MO/WRN KY/WRN TN AREA AT DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. GIVEN THE RIDGING TO THE WEST...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WNWLY
AND REMNANT STORMS ARE LIKELY TO TRACK ESEWD/SEWD THROUGH THE DAY.
WITH HEATING...VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND DEEP WNWLY FLOW THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE WOULD FAVOR THIS MCS INTENSIFYING...WITH A
THREAT OF PRIMARILY WIND DAMAGE UNTIL IT MOVES OFFSHORE.
ELSEWHERE...WITH HEATING...OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ON MORNING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WITH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS
STRUCTURES. THESES STORMS WOULD PRODUCE MAINLY HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.
...KS SWD INTO NWRN TX...
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...VERY HOT SFC TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE NOTED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KS...SWD INTO NWRN TX WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR UP TO 110F IN SOME AREAS. THE SRN PORTION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY BRUSH THE DRYLINE
LATE AFTERNOON AND AID IN STORMS DEVELOPING. ALTHOUGH 700 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 14-16C RANGE...THE WEAK FORCING AND
EXTREME HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED TO
500-600 MB TO BE LIFTED INTO HIGH BASED STORMS. ALTHOUGH STORMS
WOULD BE VERY SPARSE IN COVERAGE...PW VALUES ABOVE 1 INCH AND 50 DEG
SFC TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS INDICATE THAT ANY STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE
OF LOCAL SEVERE DOWNBURSTS.
..IMY.. 06/18/2011
Moderate Risk, NE, Sunday 6/19 & Monday 6/20
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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WeatherGuesser
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- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
Moderate Risk, NE, Sunday 6/19 & Monday 6/20
Last edited by WeatherGuesser on Sun Jun 19, 2011 2:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
Re: Moderate Risk, NE, Sunday 6/19 & Monday 6/20
SPC AC 190535
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN SD/ERN NEB INTO
EXTREME SRN MN AND MUCH OF WRN/NRN IA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY...
A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE MID MO/MID MS VALLEY REGION MONDAY...INCLUDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. THE REGION MOST
LIKELY TO RECEIVE SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXTEND FROM ERN NEB INTO NRN
IA.
...MID MO/MID MS VALLEY...
LATEST NAM/GFS DATA ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE
CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY. BOTH MODELS INSIST A STRONG
MID LEVEL SPEED MAX...H5 APPROACHING 70KT...WILL ROUND THE BASE OF
THE EJECTING TROUGH ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD THEN
RACE NEWD INTO SERN NEB BY 21/00Z. THIS FEATURE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY
ENHANCE A FOCUSED ZONE OF ASCENT AHEAD OF A SFC CYCLONE THAT WILL
MATURE ACROSS ERN NEB/SERN SD/NWRN IA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD.
WHILE A STRONG CAP WILL OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MID MS VALLEY LATE DAY1 INTO THE DAY2 PERIOD...STRONG ASCENT
WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET WILL REMOVE INHIBITION AHEAD OF SFC
LOW DURING FAVORABLE PEAK HEATING HOURS SUCH THAT INTENSE SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...SBCAPE AOA
4000 J/KG...CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50KT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STRONGLY FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WITH
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS AFTER 21Z AHEAD OF SFC LOW...EWD ALONG WARM
FRONT INTO NRN IA. IT APPEARS ACTIVITY MAY BE DELAYED EWD ALONG THE
WARM FRONT UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING HOURS. EVEN SO...STRONG
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS...COUPLED WITH DYNAMIC EJECTING SPEED MAX
SUGGEST TORNADIC SUPERCELLS COULD EASILY TRACK NEWD ACROSS ERN
NEB/EXTREME SERN SD INTO NRN IA WHERE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE
MAXIMIZED AFTER DARK. THUS SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE MAINTAINED
WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
...KS/OK...
VERY HOT SFC TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NOTED SOUTH OF I-70
ACROSS KS INTO OK WHERE READINGS WILL REBOUND ABOVE 100F IN MANY
PLACES. THIS DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER...COUPLED WITH SUPERCELL SHEAR
PROFILES...WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR HIGH BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CLOUD BASES MAY BE
SOMEWHAT LOWER NORTH OF I-70 WHICH MAY INCREASE THE TORNADO THREAT
FOR PORTIONS OF NERN KS...NWD. OTHERWISE...HAIL/WIND SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS ALONG SRN PORTIONS OF OUTLOOK.
...OH VALLEY SEWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS...
STRONG LLJ ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD PROVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF AN MCS THAT SHOULD TRACK EWD INTO
THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WHETHER THIS COMPLEX
COMPLETELY DIMINISHES PRIOR TO DIURNAL REJUVENATION IS YET TO BE
SEEN...EVEN SO REMNANT OUTFLOW AND ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
ENHANCE THE SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT MATERIALIZE ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW
VEERS MORE NWLY ALONG FRONT SIDE OF RIDGE AXIS. IT/S NOT COMPLETELY
CLEAR WHAT INFLUENCES LATE DAY1 CONVECTION WILL HAVE ACROSS THIS
REGION BUT LEFT OVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND REMNANT MCV/S COULD
CERTAINLY MODULATE TSTM ACTIVITY WITHIN NWLY FLOW REGIME.
..DARROW.. 06/19/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN SD/ERN NEB INTO
EXTREME SRN MN AND MUCH OF WRN/NRN IA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY...
A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE MID MO/MID MS VALLEY REGION MONDAY...INCLUDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. THE REGION MOST
LIKELY TO RECEIVE SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXTEND FROM ERN NEB INTO NRN
IA.
...MID MO/MID MS VALLEY...
LATEST NAM/GFS DATA ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE
CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY. BOTH MODELS INSIST A STRONG
MID LEVEL SPEED MAX...H5 APPROACHING 70KT...WILL ROUND THE BASE OF
THE EJECTING TROUGH ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD THEN
RACE NEWD INTO SERN NEB BY 21/00Z. THIS FEATURE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY
ENHANCE A FOCUSED ZONE OF ASCENT AHEAD OF A SFC CYCLONE THAT WILL
MATURE ACROSS ERN NEB/SERN SD/NWRN IA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD.
WHILE A STRONG CAP WILL OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MID MS VALLEY LATE DAY1 INTO THE DAY2 PERIOD...STRONG ASCENT
WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET WILL REMOVE INHIBITION AHEAD OF SFC
LOW DURING FAVORABLE PEAK HEATING HOURS SUCH THAT INTENSE SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...SBCAPE AOA
4000 J/KG...CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50KT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STRONGLY FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WITH
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS AFTER 21Z AHEAD OF SFC LOW...EWD ALONG WARM
FRONT INTO NRN IA. IT APPEARS ACTIVITY MAY BE DELAYED EWD ALONG THE
WARM FRONT UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING HOURS. EVEN SO...STRONG
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS...COUPLED WITH DYNAMIC EJECTING SPEED MAX
SUGGEST TORNADIC SUPERCELLS COULD EASILY TRACK NEWD ACROSS ERN
NEB/EXTREME SERN SD INTO NRN IA WHERE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE
MAXIMIZED AFTER DARK. THUS SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE MAINTAINED
WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
...KS/OK...
VERY HOT SFC TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NOTED SOUTH OF I-70
ACROSS KS INTO OK WHERE READINGS WILL REBOUND ABOVE 100F IN MANY
PLACES. THIS DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER...COUPLED WITH SUPERCELL SHEAR
PROFILES...WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR HIGH BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CLOUD BASES MAY BE
SOMEWHAT LOWER NORTH OF I-70 WHICH MAY INCREASE THE TORNADO THREAT
FOR PORTIONS OF NERN KS...NWD. OTHERWISE...HAIL/WIND SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS ALONG SRN PORTIONS OF OUTLOOK.
...OH VALLEY SEWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS...
STRONG LLJ ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD PROVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF AN MCS THAT SHOULD TRACK EWD INTO
THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WHETHER THIS COMPLEX
COMPLETELY DIMINISHES PRIOR TO DIURNAL REJUVENATION IS YET TO BE
SEEN...EVEN SO REMNANT OUTFLOW AND ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
ENHANCE THE SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT MATERIALIZE ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW
VEERS MORE NWLY ALONG FRONT SIDE OF RIDGE AXIS. IT/S NOT COMPLETELY
CLEAR WHAT INFLUENCES LATE DAY1 CONVECTION WILL HAVE ACROSS THIS
REGION BUT LEFT OVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND REMNANT MCV/S COULD
CERTAINLY MODULATE TSTM ACTIVITY WITHIN NWLY FLOW REGIME.
..DARROW.. 06/19/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
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This is strange.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
257 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
MNZ092-192030-
FARIBAULT-
257 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
...FUNNEL CLOUD OBSERVED IN THE AREA...
AT 254 PM CDT...A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS REPORTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA NEAR BRICELYN. A THUNDERSTORM WAS ALSO FORMING IN THAT
AREA. THE THUNDERSTORM WAS EITHER STATIONARY OR DRIFTING SLOWLY
EAST. IF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OR THE FUNNEL STARTS TO
DESCEND...A TORNADO WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
257 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
MNZ092-192030-
FARIBAULT-
257 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
...FUNNEL CLOUD OBSERVED IN THE AREA...
AT 254 PM CDT...A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS REPORTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA NEAR BRICELYN. A THUNDERSTORM WAS ALSO FORMING IN THAT
AREA. THE THUNDERSTORM WAS EITHER STATIONARY OR DRIFTING SLOWLY
EAST. IF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OR THE FUNNEL STARTS TO
DESCEND...A TORNADO WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.
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WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
-
WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
-
WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
EXTREME NORTHEAST COLORADO
SOUTHWEST IOWA
NORTHERN KANSAS
EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSOURI
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA
ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM...THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...INTO THE
CAROLINAS.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO
MISSOURI. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHER STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD OFF OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE STORMS WILL POSE A
RISK OF VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL...ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES.
STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A FAST-MOVING CLUSTER DURING THE EVENING
WITH A RISK OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI AFTER
DARK.
STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY
VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO
RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
..DIAL/HART.. 06/19/2011
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
EXTREME NORTHEAST COLORADO
SOUTHWEST IOWA
NORTHERN KANSAS
EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSOURI
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA
ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM...THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...INTO THE
CAROLINAS.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO
MISSOURI. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHER STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD OFF OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE STORMS WILL POSE A
RISK OF VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL...ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES.
STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A FAST-MOVING CLUSTER DURING THE EVENING
WITH A RISK OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI AFTER
DARK.
STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY
VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO
RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
..DIAL/HART.. 06/19/2011
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Moderate Risk, NE, Sunday 6/19 & Monday 6/20
(Remember: I only post strongly-worded or ground-confirmed warnings in most cases.)
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
548 PM MDT SUN JUN 19 2011
NEC057-087-200045-
/O.CON.KGLD.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-110620T0045Z/
DUNDY NE-HITCHCOCK NE-
548 PM MDT SUN JUN 19 2011
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN HITCHCOCK AND
NORTHEASTERN DUNDY COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM MDT/745 PM CDT/...
AT 545 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF MAX...AND WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING
PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME NORTHWESTERN HITCHCOCK AND
NORTHEASTERN DUNDY COUNTIES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TO REPEAT...A TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 4035 10118 4017 10118 4016 10162 4034 10169
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 231DEG 20KT 4023 10153
HAIL 1.50IN
$$
024
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
548 PM MDT SUN JUN 19 2011
NEC057-087-200045-
/O.CON.KGLD.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-110620T0045Z/
DUNDY NE-HITCHCOCK NE-
548 PM MDT SUN JUN 19 2011
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN HITCHCOCK AND
NORTHEASTERN DUNDY COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM MDT/745 PM CDT/...
AT 545 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF MAX...AND WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING
PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME NORTHWESTERN HITCHCOCK AND
NORTHEASTERN DUNDY COUNTIES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TO REPEAT...A TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 4035 10118 4017 10118 4016 10162 4034 10169
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 231DEG 20KT 4023 10153
HAIL 1.50IN
$$
024
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Moderate Risk, NE, Sunday 6/19 & Monday 6/20
And the first big-number watch. Probs are 70/30.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 515
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
610 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 610 PM UNTIL
100 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF ONEILL
NEBRASKA TO 15 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MCCOOK NEBRASKA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 511...WW 512...WW
513...WW 514...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/STRENGTH ALONG
LOW LVL CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM SW NEB NNE TO N CNTRL NEB.
INCREASINGLY MOIST SSELY LOW LVL FLOW E OF CONFLUENCE ZONE AND
PRESENCE OF 35-45 KT WSWLY TO SWLY DEEP SHEAR SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND TORNADOES. ACTIVITY SHOULD
EVOLVE INTO A COMPLEX MCS OR TWO BY MID TO LATE EVE...WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS CONTINUING TO POSE A RISK FOR SVR WEATHER AS UPR
DIFFLUENCE/LLJ CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER REGION DOWNSTREAM FROM
STRONG UPR TROUGH NOW OVER UT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23025.
...CORFIDI
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 515
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
610 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 610 PM UNTIL
100 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF ONEILL
NEBRASKA TO 15 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MCCOOK NEBRASKA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 511...WW 512...WW
513...WW 514...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/STRENGTH ALONG
LOW LVL CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM SW NEB NNE TO N CNTRL NEB.
INCREASINGLY MOIST SSELY LOW LVL FLOW E OF CONFLUENCE ZONE AND
PRESENCE OF 35-45 KT WSWLY TO SWLY DEEP SHEAR SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND TORNADOES. ACTIVITY SHOULD
EVOLVE INTO A COMPLEX MCS OR TWO BY MID TO LATE EVE...WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS CONTINUING TO POSE A RISK FOR SVR WEATHER AS UPR
DIFFLUENCE/LLJ CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER REGION DOWNSTREAM FROM
STRONG UPR TROUGH NOW OVER UT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23025.
...CORFIDI
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Moderate Risk, NE, Sunday 6/19 & Monday 6/20
40/30.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 516
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
655 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN IOWA
NORTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 655 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 125 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
SHENANDOAH IOWA TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF TOPEKA KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 511...WW 513...WW
514...WW 515...
DISCUSSION...TSTM RECENTLY FORMED NEAR INTERSECTION OF DRY LINE AND
WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT E OF SLN MAY CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS
LLJ/MOIST INFLOW INCREASE LATER THIS EVE. OTHER WDLY SCTD STORMS
MAY FORM EWD ALONG THE SAME FRONT...OR N OF THE FRONT...EWD INTO NRN
MO...LATER THIS EVE. WHILE CINH ASSOCIATED WITH NERN FRINGE OF
STRONG EML CAP MAY LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE...THOSE STORMS THAT DO
MANAGE TO BECOME SUSTAINED SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLS GIVEN
REGIONAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT /VERY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES
ATOP FAIRLY DEEP AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER/. BACKED LOW LVL
FLOW INVOF WARM FRONT...AND MAINTENANCE OF BACKED NEAR-SFC FLOW INTO
TONIGHT AS LEE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN IN WRN KS...FURTHER SUGGEST A
THREAT FOR TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22030.
...CORFIDI
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 516
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
655 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN IOWA
NORTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 655 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 125 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
SHENANDOAH IOWA TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF TOPEKA KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 511...WW 513...WW
514...WW 515...
DISCUSSION...TSTM RECENTLY FORMED NEAR INTERSECTION OF DRY LINE AND
WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT E OF SLN MAY CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS
LLJ/MOIST INFLOW INCREASE LATER THIS EVE. OTHER WDLY SCTD STORMS
MAY FORM EWD ALONG THE SAME FRONT...OR N OF THE FRONT...EWD INTO NRN
MO...LATER THIS EVE. WHILE CINH ASSOCIATED WITH NERN FRINGE OF
STRONG EML CAP MAY LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE...THOSE STORMS THAT DO
MANAGE TO BECOME SUSTAINED SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLS GIVEN
REGIONAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT /VERY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES
ATOP FAIRLY DEEP AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER/. BACKED LOW LVL
FLOW INVOF WARM FRONT...AND MAINTENANCE OF BACKED NEAR-SFC FLOW INTO
TONIGHT AS LEE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN IN WRN KS...FURTHER SUGGEST A
THREAT FOR TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22030.
...CORFIDI
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SPC AC 200100
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
VALID 200100Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NEB...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
TN VALLEY/CAROLINAS...
...PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
SHARPENING FRONTAL ZONE EARLY THIS EVENING EXTENDS GENERAL WEST-EAST
FROM NEAR THE NORTHERN KS/SOUTHERN NEB BORDER TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MO
VALLEY. REGIONAL 00Z OBSERVED RAOBS SAMPLE A MOIST/HIGHLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AS PER 00Z LBF/OAX/TOP/DVN/ILX SOUNDINGS. SUPERCELL AND
ASSOCIATED LARGE HAIL/TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN NEB/FAR NORTHEAST CO...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST KS/ADJACENT MO
VALLEY VICINITY THROUGH MID EVENING.
SUBSEQUENT UPSCALE MCS-TYPE DEVELOPMENT/ORGANIZATION SEEMS HIGHLY
PROBABLE ACROSS NEB...WITH FORWARD PROPAGATION LIKELY TO YIELD AN
INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AMID
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
INCREASE/EXPAND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM NORTHEAST KS/FAR
SOUTHEAST NEB INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO THROUGH LATE
EVENING...WITH AN INITIAL LARGE HAIL THREAT AND PERHAPS MCS
DEVELOPMENT WITH AN INCREASING WIND THREAT WITH AID OF A
DRAMATICALLY STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET.
...TN VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS...
EARLY/MID EVENING ONGOING STORMS /INCLUDING A SUPERCELL OR TWO/ WILL
LIKELY PERSIST AT LEAST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...WITH AID FROM A
VERY UNSTABLE FEED AS PER THE 00Z NASHVILLE OBSERVED RAOB. IT IS NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR AS TO WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IF UPSTREAM STORM
EXPANSION/ORGANIZATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR.
..GUYER.. 06/20/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0106Z (9:06PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
VALID 200100Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NEB...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
TN VALLEY/CAROLINAS...
...PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
SHARPENING FRONTAL ZONE EARLY THIS EVENING EXTENDS GENERAL WEST-EAST
FROM NEAR THE NORTHERN KS/SOUTHERN NEB BORDER TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MO
VALLEY. REGIONAL 00Z OBSERVED RAOBS SAMPLE A MOIST/HIGHLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AS PER 00Z LBF/OAX/TOP/DVN/ILX SOUNDINGS. SUPERCELL AND
ASSOCIATED LARGE HAIL/TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN NEB/FAR NORTHEAST CO...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST KS/ADJACENT MO
VALLEY VICINITY THROUGH MID EVENING.
SUBSEQUENT UPSCALE MCS-TYPE DEVELOPMENT/ORGANIZATION SEEMS HIGHLY
PROBABLE ACROSS NEB...WITH FORWARD PROPAGATION LIKELY TO YIELD AN
INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AMID
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
INCREASE/EXPAND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM NORTHEAST KS/FAR
SOUTHEAST NEB INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO THROUGH LATE
EVENING...WITH AN INITIAL LARGE HAIL THREAT AND PERHAPS MCS
DEVELOPMENT WITH AN INCREASING WIND THREAT WITH AID OF A
DRAMATICALLY STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET.
...TN VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS...
EARLY/MID EVENING ONGOING STORMS /INCLUDING A SUPERCELL OR TWO/ WILL
LIKELY PERSIST AT LEAST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...WITH AID FROM A
VERY UNSTABLE FEED AS PER THE 00Z NASHVILLE OBSERVED RAOB. IT IS NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR AS TO WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IF UPSTREAM STORM
EXPANSION/ORGANIZATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR.
..GUYER.. 06/20/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0106Z (9:06PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Moderate Risk, NE, Sunday 6/19 & Monday 6/20
Nastiest cell yet today.
WWUS53 KTOP 200123
SVSTOP
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
823 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
KSC061-127-200145-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-110620T0145Z/
MORRIS-GEARY-
823 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN GEARY AND NORTHWESTERN MORRIS COUNTIES...
AT 815 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF LATIMER...OR 11 MILES
NORTHEAST OF HERINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WHITE CITY...PARKERVILLE AND DWIGHT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR YOUR SAFETY...GO TO A STORM SHELTER OR BASEMENT NOW!
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.
&&
LAT...LON 3869 9690 3880 9691 3882 9689 3887 9686
3891 9685 3902 9652 3871 9652
TIME...MOT...LOC 0123Z 247DEG 15KT 3879 9680
HAIL 2.75IN
$$
WWUS53 KTOP 200123
SVSTOP
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
823 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
KSC061-127-200145-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-110620T0145Z/
MORRIS-GEARY-
823 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN GEARY AND NORTHWESTERN MORRIS COUNTIES...
AT 815 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF LATIMER...OR 11 MILES
NORTHEAST OF HERINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WHITE CITY...PARKERVILLE AND DWIGHT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR YOUR SAFETY...GO TO A STORM SHELTER OR BASEMENT NOW!
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.
&&
LAT...LON 3869 9690 3880 9691 3882 9689 3887 9686
3891 9685 3902 9652 3871 9652
TIME...MOT...LOC 0123Z 247DEG 15KT 3879 9680
HAIL 2.75IN
$$
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Moderate Risk, NE, Sunday 6/19 & Monday 6/20
Tornado threat increasing. Probs 90/40.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 518
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
945 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN IOWA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 945 PM UNTIL
400 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF TEKAMAH
NEBRASKA TO 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF BEATRICE NEBRASKA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 513...WW 515...WW
516...WW 517...
DISCUSSION...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN CNTRL NEB EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING/DEVELOPING GENERALLY ENEWD...WITH OTHER STORMS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FORMING ALONG W-E WARM FRONT IN SE NEB/SW IA. VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY /PER 00Z TOP SOUNDING/...BACKED NEAR-SFC WINDS
RESULTING FROM DEEPENING OPF W KS LEE CYCLONE...40+ KT 1 KM SLY
FLOW...AND VERY RICH MOISTURE /850 MB DEWPOINT 20C AT TOP/ SUGGEST
GOOD CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DMGG WIND
AS CONVECTION ULTIMATELY EVOLVES INTO ONE OR TWO COMPLEX MCSS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23030.
...CORFIDI
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 518
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
945 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN IOWA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 945 PM UNTIL
400 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF TEKAMAH
NEBRASKA TO 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF BEATRICE NEBRASKA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 513...WW 515...WW
516...WW 517...
DISCUSSION...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN CNTRL NEB EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING/DEVELOPING GENERALLY ENEWD...WITH OTHER STORMS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FORMING ALONG W-E WARM FRONT IN SE NEB/SW IA. VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY /PER 00Z TOP SOUNDING/...BACKED NEAR-SFC WINDS
RESULTING FROM DEEPENING OPF W KS LEE CYCLONE...40+ KT 1 KM SLY
FLOW...AND VERY RICH MOISTURE /850 MB DEWPOINT 20C AT TOP/ SUGGEST
GOOD CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DMGG WIND
AS CONVECTION ULTIMATELY EVOLVES INTO ONE OR TWO COMPLEX MCSS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23030.
...CORFIDI
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WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Moderate Risk, NE, Sunday 6/19 & Monday 6/20
I did NOT expect this.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 523
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
LARGE PART OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
ONEILL NEBRASKA TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HILL CITY KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 522...
DISCUSSION...INTENSE SURFACE LOW OVER NCENTRAL KS WITH RAPID
DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING INTO NEB WHERE SHEAR IS VERY FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WELL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES
INCREASING THRU THE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM MOVES NNE. VERY LARGE HAIL
ALSO LIKELY GIVEN MLCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG AND LARGE HODOGRAPHS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22030.
...HALES
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 523
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
LARGE PART OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
ONEILL NEBRASKA TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HILL CITY KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 522...
DISCUSSION...INTENSE SURFACE LOW OVER NCENTRAL KS WITH RAPID
DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING INTO NEB WHERE SHEAR IS VERY FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WELL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES
INCREASING THRU THE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM MOVES NNE. VERY LARGE HAIL
ALSO LIKELY GIVEN MLCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG AND LARGE HODOGRAPHS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22030.
...HALES
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Moderate Risk, NE, Sunday 6/19 & Monday 6/20
And we're off.
WFUS53 KGLD 201756
TORGLD
KSC063-065-179-201900-
/O.NEW.KGLD.TO.W.0032.110620T1756Z-110620T1900Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1256 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN GOVE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN GRAHAM COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...
* UNTIL 200 PM CDT
* AT 1254 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR QUINTER.
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAINT PETER AND STUDLEY.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 100 AND 110.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TO REPEAT...A TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY THE PUBLIC. TAKE COVER
NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 3912 10010 3912 10014 3909 10014 3899 10027
3906 10040 3940 10018 3926 9993
TIME...MOT...LOC 1756Z 217DEG 15KT 3910 10028
HAIL 1.25IN
$$
PMURRAY/LOCKHART
WFUS53 KGLD 201756
TORGLD
KSC063-065-179-201900-
/O.NEW.KGLD.TO.W.0032.110620T1756Z-110620T1900Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1256 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN GOVE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN GRAHAM COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...
* UNTIL 200 PM CDT
* AT 1254 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR QUINTER.
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAINT PETER AND STUDLEY.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 100 AND 110.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TO REPEAT...A TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY THE PUBLIC. TAKE COVER
NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 3912 10010 3912 10014 3909 10014 3899 10027
3906 10040 3940 10018 3926 9993
TIME...MOT...LOC 1756Z 217DEG 15KT 3910 10028
HAIL 1.25IN
$$
PMURRAY/LOCKHART
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