One of the worst forecast busts I've seen!

[otowntiger]

Yesterday all the mets around here were warning of flash floods, severe weather, 2-4 inches of rain, high winds people were running around getting sand bags from their homes Public Works Departments were out clearing ditches and live media reports from canal/river banks all over town. The forecast called for 100% chance of rain. Well after all that we got .01 inches of rain, nary a puff of wind and sunshine off and on all day. I know misses like this happen in the long term (5+ days out) but how in the world can they miss it so bad on the same day?

[wxman57]

I'd say that's far from the worst forecast ever. Orlando did report 0.16" of rain, so the 100% chance of rain did verify. A higher chance of rain doesn't necessarily mean heavier rain. But such busts can happen when one just goes by the model guidance vs. "looking out the window". The models kept developing 95L into a storm and moving it right into Tampa. They (models) assume there would be considerable lifting associated with the storm center and, thus, heavy rain.

A look at what was actually happening yesterday morning told a different story. A couple of weak swirls in the eastern Gulf with the convection becoming linear and shifting southward. A pre-frontal trof formed well out in advance of the front, limiting convergence along the frontal boundary in central Florida.

Sandbags for 2-4" of rain forecast in Florida? You're kidding, right? That's an afternoon shower rainfall total.

[otowntiger]

I'd say that's far from the worst forecast ever. Orlando did report 0.16" of rain, so the 100% chance of rain did verify. A higher chance of rain doesn't necessarily mean heavier rain. But such busts can happen when one just goes by the model guidance vs. "looking out the window". The models kept developing 95L into a storm and moving it right into Tampa. They (models) assume there would be considerable lifting associated with the storm center and, thus, heavy rain.

A look at what was actually happening yesterday morning told a different story. A couple of weak swirls in the eastern Gulf with the convection becoming linear and shifting southward. A pre-frontal trof formed well out in advance of the front, limiting convergence along the frontal boundary in central Florida.

Sandbags for 2-4" of rain forecast in Florida? You're kidding, right? That's an afternoon shower rainfall total.

The sandbags were for people dealing with higher than normal river and lake levels due to the 10-12" of rain received for the no-name storm weekend before last. I still say it was a pretty big bust when everyone was preparing for severe weather and heavy rains. They should have consulted with you because you were the first to say that we here in Central Florida shouldn't expect much.

And you and I both know that when they put 100% chance of rain they are expecting a deluge. So technically you are correct in that Orlando did get some (very little) rain the forecast verified, but FAR less than 100% of the area got any rain so I still say this was a mega bust.

[StormingB81]

better to be safe then sorry..what if it did happen to do soemthing...

[gsytch]

Barely 1/10" fell here. It was windy on the Saturday, but nothing out of the ordinary. I had to break out the hose and water some of the landscape. They missed it big time!

[CajunMama]

I can only imagine the complaining if they hadn't issued warnings and y'all did flood. I'm so tired of people getting thrills out of saying the NWS busted. They're human too..and we ALL make mistakes. If y'all can do better, go back to school and do their job.

Ok, my rant is over.

[Florida1118]

I can only imagine the complaining if they hadn't issued warnings and y'all did flood. I'm so tired of people getting thrills out of saying the NWS busted. They're human too..and we ALL make mistakes. If y'all can do better, go back to school and do their job.

Ok, my rant is over.

It was the same with Charley. The mets were sure it was going up to Tampa, and lone and behold it went to Punta Gordia. BUT uf they had not issued warnings and it did come to us, thats a Category 4 mistake, compared to not getting ruined. If meteorology was perfect, we wouldnt need people to do so. If we let models run the show...well the US would be struck with 39 hurricanes. So, we need people to do it, and people are not perfect. So, CM, I agree. Ill get off my soap box now.

[jerry0503222]

better to be safe then sorry..what if it did happen to do soemthing...







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[CrazyC83]

I can only imagine the complaining if they hadn't issued warnings and y'all did flood. I'm so tired of people getting thrills out of saying the NWS busted. They're human too..and we ALL make mistakes. If y'all can do better, go back to school and do their job.

Ok, my rant is over.

It was the same with Charley. The mets were sure it was going up to Tampa, and lone and behold it went to Punta Gordia. BUT uf they had not issued warnings and it did come to us, thats a Category 4 mistake, compared to not getting ruined. If meteorology was perfect, we wouldnt need people to do so. If we let models run the show...well the US would be struck with 39 hurricanes. So, we need people to do it, and people are not perfect. So, CM, I agree. Ill get off my soap box now.

In the case of Charley, that "bust" was within the margin of error. The angle of approach and the tiny size was killer for forecasts, but it was never outside the cone.

[somethingfunny]

I didn't see any meteorologists who were sure Charley was going to Tampa on August 13 2004. If you misinterpreted them as saying that, that's very unfortunate.

[Florida1118]

I didn't see any meteorologists who were sure Charley was going to Tampa on August 13 2004. If you misinterpreted them as saying that, that's very unfortunate.

Yeah bad example. I do remember they were fairly certain though. For you enjoyment, heres videos of which I say they were fairly certain Tampa would recieve at least Hurricane force winds; and well, there were no Tropical Storm force winds period.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1tnIFtD56M&feature=BFa&list=PLFB4057A3E9B04E1C&lf=results_main

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lr9hdbUpgL8&feature=BFa&list=PLFB4057A3E9B04E1C&lf=results_main

So no, they werent certain of direct landfall, but you cannot tell me after seeing the videos that they werent certain on impacts, which we got none. But I dont really care either way, it was 7 years ago.

[psyclone]

I didn't see any meteorologists who were sure Charley was going to Tampa on August 13 2004. If you misinterpreted them as saying that, that's very unfortunate.

Yeah bad example. I do remember they were fairly certain though. For you enjoyment, heres videos of which I say they were fairly certain Tampa would recieve at least Hurricane force winds; and well, there were no Tropical Storm force winds period.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1tnIFtD56M&feature=BFa&list=PLFB4057A3E9B04E1C&lf=results_main

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lr9hdbUpgL8&feature=BFa&list=PLFB4057A3E9B04E1C&lf=results_main

So no, they werent certain of direct landfall, but you cannot tell me after seeing the videos that they werent certain on impacts, which we got none. But I dont really care either way, it was 7 years ago.

Great vids. the charley event really emboldened the complacency crowd. thank goodness we missed that one.