Severe weather outbreak possible? November 7-9

[CrazyC83]

We've been on a quiet run for severe weather lately (other than a destructive winter storm), but this may break that trend next week, and it could be shaping up to be big:

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 030855
SPC AC 030855

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT THU NOV 03 2011

VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ON SUN/D4...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A BROAD BELT OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT
EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE SWRN STATES INTO THE BASE OF THE NEXT
TROUGH. WITH SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...SWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
OVER THE PLAINS HELPING TO BRING GULF MOISTURE NWD OVERNIGHT.

BY MON/D5...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE UPPER TROUGH
AND LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES AND
INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY MON AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DEEPEN OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AREA...WITH SLY FLOW INTENSIFYING
THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WITH A 50+ KT LLJ AND AT LEAST LOWER
60S F DEWPOINTS INTO OK. THE GFS SHOWS A WARM FRONT ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER...BUT THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL BE MUCH FARTHER N
INTO NRN KS/SRN NEB. WHILE THE NRN EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE THREAT MAY
BE IN QUESTION...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR
OVER PORTIONS OF WRN OK AND NWRN TX NEAR THE DRYLINE. HERE...STEEP
LAPSE RATE PROFILES SHOULD EXIST. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY LARGE WITH ONLY NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS...SHEAR PROFILES WILL
BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A FEW TORNADOES ALONG WITH HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE.
OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO CNTRL OK AND TX.
IT IS POSSIBLE MORE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ALONG THIS FRONT...BUT THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL LIKELY BE WITH DIURNAL SUPERCELLS.

BY TUE/D6...MODELS START TO DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF LIFTING THE UPPER
LOW/JET MAX NEWD MUCH QUICKER THAN MANY OF THE MREF MEMBERS. EVEN
WITH THESE DIFFERENCES...STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST ATOP MID
TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS AND FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
DRYLINE. THUS...SOME RESIDUAL SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY FROM E TX INTO
AR AND LA WITH THE MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

SOME THREAT MAY LINGER INTO WED/D7 MAINLY ACROSS LA AND MS...BUT THE
MOIST AXIS WILL BEGIN TO NARROW WITH STORMS DRIVEN MAINLY BY THE
COLD FRONT AS PERHAPS THE LOW DEPARTS TOWARD THE N.

..JEWELL.. 11/03/2011

[CrazyC83]

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... tbreak.asp

AccuWeather is much more bullish, thinking this could rival the spring outbreaks.

[PTrackerLA]

Although we certainly don't want the tornadoes, I'm hoping we can get some good rain out of this system.

[RL3AO]

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/57232/south-severe-weather-outbreak.asp

AccuWeather is much more bullish, thinking this could rival the spring outbreaks.

Could be interesting. It seems recently fall has been quiet after a big spring and vice versa.

[RL3AO]

Hmm. GFS tracks the low right over Northern Illinois late next week. "S" word for the Twin Cities?

[CrazyC83]

Hmm. GFS tracks the low right over Northern Illinois late next week. "S" word for the Twin Cities?

Is the system cold enough for that?

[RL3AO]

GFS says so. Puts the 0C 850mb line down near the IA/IL/WI border.

[CrazyC83]

Looking at the long-range GFS, the shear is downright scary but instability might be lacking. Typical November setup. Dewpoints are plenty capable as well.

[Ptarmigan]

Fall has produced some big severe weather outbreaks in the past. Fall is a transition period between summer to winter as cold fronts come and interact with warm and moist air, like spring.

[CrazyC83]

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 040821
SPC AC 040821

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 AM CDT FRI NOV 04 2011

VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

MON/D4...WHILE SEVERE WEATHER STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN TX/OK...HIGHER END THREAT APPEARS LOWER THAN
WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT NEUTRAL
TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT ENEWD FROM
SRN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...
RESULTING IN ONLY WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. ALSO...ALTHOUGH
DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE OK/TX REGION...
STRONG DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PCPN...AND CONSEQUENT WEAK SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. WHILE SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE TX PANHANDLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE BEST FORCING WILL BE LOCATED AND MORE
HEATING IS POSSIBLE...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR A 30% SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AREA.

TUE/D5...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS MORE LIKELY AS THE UPPER WAVE BEGINS
TO LIFT NEWD...BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED...AND AIDS IN DEEPENING OF
SURFACE LOW. THE SPEED AND INTENSITY OF THE UPPER WAVE VARIES ON THE
MREF RUNS AND DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND GFS. USED A COMPROMISE AMONGST
THE VARIOUS MODELS FOR INCLUDING A 30% SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA.
THE MAGNITUDE AND INTENSITY OF THE EVENT IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE
WAVE EVENTUALLY LIFTS OUT AND SHOULD BE BETTER RESOLVED IN FUTURE
OUTLOOKS.

WED/D6...UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO LIFT
NEWD INTO THE OH/WRN TN VALLEYS. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK...
SHEAR/WIND FIELDS MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT.
HOWEVER...TOO MUCH VARIANCE IN THE MODELS TO CONSIDER A SEVERE AREA
ATTM.

THU/D7 AND FRI/D8...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY INTO A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS. WHILE SOME CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SYSTEM SHIFTS
EWD...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT.

..IMY.. 11/04/2011

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

[CrazyC83]

Still the instability is the critical factor, since it may be too low.

[CrazyC83]

30% threat area for Monday.

SPC AC 050649

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 AM CDT SAT NOV 05 2011

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK AND
TX....

..SYNOPSIS...
IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM AZ/UT INTO THE
ERN NM/TX PANHANDLE AND BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR FOR SEVERE CONVECTION
THIS PERIOD. WHILE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN...00Z NAM/ECMWF CYCLOGENESIS IS
SLOWER...AS IS THE EWD MOTION OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...AS COMPARED TO
THE 00Z GFS. LATEST NAM/ECMWF ARE PREFERRED GIVEN THAT THE STRONGER
FORCING/JET MAX WILL BE LOCATED ON THE SRN BASE OF THE TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT WEAKENING FRONT TO EXTEND FROM NEAR CNU SWWD TO A
WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR CDS...WITH A DRYLINE STRETCHING SWD FROM THE
LOW ACROSS WRN TX. SURFACE LOW/FRONT/DRYLINE SHOULD EDGE ONLY SLOWLY
EWD OVERNIGHT.

...TX/OK...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE....BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL
JETS...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REGION MUCH OF THE DAY...LIMITING HEATING AND CONSEQUENT
SURFACE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...AS THE STRONGER DIFFLUENCE SHIFTS
EWD...PCPN/CLOUDS MAY DECREASE SUFFICIENTLY FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWRN OK AND NWRN TX. THESE READINGS
COMBINED WITH 60-65 DEGREE DEWPOINTS AND STEEP MID/HIGH LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WOULD YIELD MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY PLUS
VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT...YIELDING 50-60
KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. WHILE
LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
20-30 KT OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALSO FAVOR TORNADOES. ATTM...THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR THE MORE INTENSE STORMS APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS
SWRN OK/NWRN TX AND IS DEPICTED BY THE 30% SEVERE PROBABILITY LINE
ON THE PROBABILITY GRAPHIC. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING AS THE STORMS SPREAD NEWD INTO CENTRAL OK/NRN
TX...WEAKER INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS THE STORMS WILL NOT BE
AS INTENSE OR AS NUMEROUS AS THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE
AFTERNOON.

..IMY.. 11/05/2011

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1417Z (10:17AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 050804
SPC AC 050804

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 AM CDT SAT NOV 05 2011

VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

TUE/D4...
DETERMINISTIC AND MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF
UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE AREA NEWD INTO IA... THOUGH
AT VARIOUS SPEEDS AND INTENSITY. THE FORCING...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE...ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE IN THE MID MS VALLEY WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF
STRONGER FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. MODELS ARE
HIGHLY SUGGESTIVE OF A FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORM LINE...WITH WIND
DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT. NORTH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...FORCING AND WIND
FIELDS WILL BE VERY STRONG AND FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT
UNCERTAINTY ON INSTABILITY PREVENTED THE RISK AREA FROM BEING
EXTENDED FARTHER NWD. SOUTH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA IN ERN TX/FAR SRN AR
AND LA...STORMS ARE LIKELY AS FRONT/TROUGH SHIFTS EWD. HOWEVER...
SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED AS MAIN FORCING PASSES
WELL NORTH OF AREA WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HEIGHT CHANGES.

WED/D5...UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO LIFT
NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE A LOW END SEVERE
WIND THREAT MAY STILL EXIST IN THE MORNING...GIVEN THE STRONG
FORCING/WIND FIELDS...MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
NEWD INTO AN AREA WHERE NO APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST.

THU/D6 - SAT/D8...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY AND SHIFT EWD
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST
FRI. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY PCPN AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE ERN CONUS...BUT VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT.

..IMY.. 11/05/2011

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

[cycloneye]

[CrazyC83]

The scary thing is - this year has had 14 billion dollar disasters. Every month except March has had at least one this year. Is this the 15th?

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 060555

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SUN NOV 06 2011

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
A FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY AS A 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS NEWD
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. WELL TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...A SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TX DURING THE DAY AS LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW
INCREASES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
BRING SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S F ACROSS NORTH TX INTO CNTRL
OK WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN THE REGION OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION. THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET FROM
THE TX HILL COUNTRY NWD ACROSS NW TX INTO WCNTRL OK. FURTHER TO THE
WEST OF THE MIDDAY STORMS ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET...THE
MODELS FORECAST MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WITH SBCAPE VALUES POSSIBLY
REACHING THE 1000 TO 1500 J/K RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVING OUT INTO THE SRN
PLAINS...DISCRETE CELL INITIATION SHOULD TAKE PLACE DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A RAPID INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS ALL DEVELOP STORMS...THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
CONCERNING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE.
AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS A SQUALL-LINE WILL DEVELOP IN WRN OK AND
NW TX AND MOVE EWD INTO WCNTRL OK AND ACROSS NORTH TX SIMILAR TO THE
GFS SOLUTION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WCNTRL OK AND NORTHWEST TX ON TUESDAY
GRADUALLY INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AS THE EXIT REGION OF
THE MID-LEVEL JET MOVES OUT INTO THE SRN PLAINS. WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES AS HIGH AS 50 KT COMBINED WITH SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH
HEIGHT FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION IS STORM MODE. THE CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP EARLY IN THE EVENT WITH A FAIRLY
QUICK TRANSITION TO A LINEAR STRUCTURED MCS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ON
THE SRN END OF THE LINE FROM NORTHWEST SWD INTO WCNTRL TX WHERE MORE
DISCRETE CONVECTION MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELL THREAT FROM FAR SW OK SWD TO
AROUND SAN ANGELO WITH SEVERAL TORNADOES AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WHERE A HATCHED AREA FOR
SIGNIFICANT HAIL HAS BEEN ADDED. A STRONG TORNADO ALSO CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY
ALSO EXIST FURTHER NORTH INTO CNTRL OK...THE MORE PREDOMINANT THREAT
COULD BECOME WIND DAMAGE AS A SQUALL-LINE MOVES EWD INTO ECNTRL OK
AND ACROSS NORTH TX DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 11/06/2011

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1529Z (10:29AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 060732

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2011

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN
PLAINS...ARKLATEX...OZARKS AND LOWER TO MID-MS VALLEY...

...EAST TX/LA/OZARK PLATEAU/LOWER TO MID-MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS TUESDAY AS 70 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE OZARK
REGION. TO THE EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL JET AXIS...THE REMNANTS OF A
SQUALL-LINE SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM THE ARKLATEX SWWD INTO ECNTRL TX
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE IN EAST TX AND FAR WRN LA. ALTHOUGH THE
LINE OF STORMS MAY BE DISORGANIZED LATE TUESDAY MORNING...MODEL
FORECASTS REDEVELOP A WELL-DEFINED SQUALL-LINE ACROSS THE SRN OZARKS
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BECOMES MAXIMIZED
ACROSS THE REGION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE OZARKS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY SHOW STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE WIND DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SQUALL-LINE. AN ISOLATED HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST
ESPECIALLY IF SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP WITHIN THE LINE ITSELF. A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT
FOR THE TUESDAY EVENT. MODEL FORECASTS ARE VERY DIFFERENT CONCERNING
THE SPEED OF THE SQUALL-LINE WITH THE NAM FURTHEST WEST AND THE GFS
FURTHEST EAST. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL JET COUPLET WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE NRN END OF THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA WITH THE MID 60S F DEWPOINTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
LOCATED ON THE SRN END OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR A WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THREAT AND HAVE REDUCED
THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY. FOR THE
POSITION OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...HAVE SOMEWHAT FAVORED THE ECMWF
AND GFS SOLUTIONS WHICH MOVE THE SQUALL-LINE FASTER AND FOCUS THE
STRONGER DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH.

..BROYLES.. 11/06/2011

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1529Z (10:29AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

No upgrade to Moderate Risk yet.

AC 061730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2011

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
WITH THE POLAR JET/SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY AMPLIFYING/DIGGING
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CA COAST...THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO TURN MORE EAST/EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS IT TAKES ON A MORE NEUTRAL TILT WHILE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS TO THE
EAST OF A SHARPENING WEST TX DRYLINE...AND TO THE SOUTH OF
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST/MIDDLE MS VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ON
MONDAY /AND INTO TUESDAY/ ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OZARKS/ARKLATEX...
GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO AS DESCRIBED...SCATTERED TSTMS ARE
LIKELY TO BE ONGOING/INCREASE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITHIN A WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME...AND THIS INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY
OF ELEVATED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS MAINLY CAPABLE OF HAIL ACROSS
NORTHWEST TX INTO OK MONDAY MORNING. WITH TIME...GIVEN THE ARRIVAL
OF DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT AND A CONTINUALLY MOISTENING/DIURNALLY
WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE INTO
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR SURFACE BASED SEVERE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST OF THE GRADUALLY
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW/PERIPHERAL DRYLINE ACROSS NORTHWEST/PARTS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK. HERE...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER/PERHAPS MIDDLE 60S F WILL BE PREVALENT BENEATH AN
EASTWARD-ADVECTING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MLCAPES TO REACH AS HIGH AS 1000-1500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON.

WHILE THE SPECIFIC DETAILS OF CONVECTIVE MODE ARE A BIT
UNCERTAIN...A MIXED MODE SEEMS PROBABLE WITHIN A HIGHLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THIS INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF INITIAL MODE
SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST/PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TX TO
SOUTHWEST OK...ASIDE FROM A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR LINEAR/SQUALL
LINE-TYPE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND WEST/NORTH
TX...ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD LATE
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. OVERALL...ALL FACETS OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
TORNADOES...INCLUDING RISKS FOR A STRONG TORNADO GIVEN THE
INCREASINGLY LARGE/ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS THAT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

..GUYER.. 11/06/2011

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1750Z (12:50PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Ptarmigan]

The scary thing is - this year has had 14 billion dollar disasters. Every month except March has had at least one this year. Is this the 15th?

Hope not. Sometimes fall tornadoes are just as bad.

[CrazyC83]

Could the earthquake have weakened buildings enough that it would take less wind or a weaker tornado to cause severe damage? (This is the second 1-2 punch this year, as the August East Coast earthquake was followed quickly by Irene - now an earthquake and a possible severe weather outbreak)