Tornado outbreak, at least 2 dead, January 22-23

[CrazyC83]

Upgrade to Moderate Risk possible.

SPC AC 211730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2012

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER AND
MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO OH/TN VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY OVER
THE CONUS. AN UPPER TROUGH /AND ASSOCIATED STRONG MID-UPPER JET/ NOW
OVER THE CONUS WEST COAST WILL REACH THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...AND
EVENTUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT TOWARD THE MIDDLE/UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY AND MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
CONSIDERABLE FACTOR IN TERMS OF SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. FARTHER WEST...A SECONDARY
UPPER TROUGH/STRONG JET ALOFT WILL REACH THE WEST COAST BY EARLY
MONDAY.

...ARKLATEX/OZARKS AND MID-SOUTH TO MS/TN RIVER VALLEYS...
AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE EVENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS. AN UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK MAY BE
WARRANTED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...AND THAT A
RELATIVELY MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS WILL ONLY BE SUPPRESSED TO THE GULF
COAST REGION WITH THE DAY-1 FRONTAL PASSAGE...A RELATIVELY
QUICK/QUALITY RETURN OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS UPPER
TROUGH. THIS RELATIVELY MOIST/BROAD WARM SECTOR WILL BE TO THE
EAST-SOUTHWARD OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE LAKE
MI VICINITY BY EARLY MONDAY. NEAR AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING DRY LINE AND
/MORE SO/ PACIFIC FRONT...INITIAL DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH AS EARLY AS LATE
AFTERNOON /OR MORE LIKELY/ SUNDAY EVENING. MORE DISCRETE/POTENTIALLY
SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT COULD ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUALLY
MOISTENS/CAPPING ALOFT ABATES.

GIVEN MORE THAN ADEQUATE MOISTURE/DESTABILIZATION...A ROBUST WIND
FIELD /HIGHLIGHTED BY 90-100 KT AROUND 500 MB AND 55-65 KT WITHIN
THE LOWEST 1-2 KM/ WILL FAVOR HIGHLY ORGANIZED STORM MODES WITH
ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY EVENING...WITH AN
ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE EPISODE PLAUSIBLE. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT A MULTI-FACETED STORM MODE SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH
SUNDAY EARLY/MID-EVENING...INCLUDING INITIAL SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF WHAT WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR
QUICK-CLUSTERING/LINEAR EVOLUTION IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
ADVANCING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. A PREVALENT QUASI-LINEAR MODE/FAST
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOVING SQUALL LINE IS LIKELY BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM MS/AL INTO PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY/LOWER
OH VALLEY. AS SUCH...THE SEVERE THREAT /IN AN ISOLATED SENSE AT THE
VERY LEAST/ WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF MONDAY.

...OH VALLEY...
FARTHER NORTH...THE EXACT DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND
DESTABILIZATION IS INHERENTLY MORE QUESTIONABLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
RECENT WINTER-TYPE PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST
WHICH PARTIALLY COINCIDES WITH THE EXPECTED SURFACE LOW TRACK/BRUNT
OF DPVA AS THE UPPER SYSTEM EVENTUALLY TAKES ON A MORE NEGATIVE
TILT. THAT SAID...A ROBUST WIND FIELD/LATE NIGHT DEEPENING PHASE OF
THE CYCLONE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A RESPECTABLE THREAT FOR WIND
DAMAGE/PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES EVEN WHERE NEAR-SURFACE INSTABILITY
IS SCANT ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY.

..GUYER.. 01/21/2012

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 2215Z (5:15PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[cycloneye]

[CrazyC83]

This is one of those classic extreme shear, low instability events. The issue is getting the trigger going, but it could go tornadic quickly if that happens.

[CrazyC83]

NWS Memphis:

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE MIDSOUTH IS GEARING UP FOR A VOLATILE
CLASH OF AIRMASSES DURING THIS PERIOD. AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE WILL
CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY GENERATING A PERIOD OF SEVERE
WEATHER FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON THE INTENSITY OF THE EVENT FOR THE
LAST FEW RUNS WITH ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING. CAPE IN EXCESS
OF 1000J/KG...BULK SHEAR VALUES ABOVE 40 KNOTS...AND LAPSE RATES
NEAR 8C SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM BECOMING ROOTED
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WARM SECTOR AND QUICKLY START
ROTATING. MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH IS IN A 30 PERCENT HATCHED REGION
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE LIKELIHOOD THAT MOST...IF NOT ALL OF
THE REGION WILL BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK ON SUNDAY. THE
SURGING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ON
FRIDAY...THROUGH THE MEMPHIS METRO BY EARLY AFTERNOON...REACHING
THE SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA/OHIO RIVER REGION BY EARLY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WILL START OFF COOL IN THE
MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH A MIX OF PATCHY
DRIZZLE LIGHT FOG AND WAA RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. BY NOON THE WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AND CONTINUE SURGING
NORTH OF THE CWA BY 4PM. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS SOUTH WINDS GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS LOW 70S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO JUMP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN MODELS AS FAR AS THE SFC LOW
INITIATION AND TRACK. THE EURO HAS A MORE SOUTHERLY AND DEEPER/SLOWER
SOLUTION...WHICH WOULD PLACE CONVECTION INITIATION OVER THE
ARKLATEX BY MID AFTERNOON AND WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS OVER THE MIDSOUTH AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THIS WOULD ALSO PLACE A HIGHER AND LONGER TORNADO
THREAT FOR THE REGION. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE THE LOW WEAKER...FURTHER
NORTH AND OCCLUDED WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE AND SHORTEN THE WINDOW FOR
TORNADIC ACTIVTY...CONVECTION INTITIATION IS FARTHER EAST NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FOR NOW...STILL LEANING TOWARDS THE EURO
SOLUTION BASED MAINLY ON HOW COLD IT HAS BEEN IN THE MIDWEST OVER
THE LAST FEW DAYS MAKING IT MORE LOGICAL THAT BOTH THE WINTER AND
SPRING SEASONS WILL MEET ACROSS MISSOURI RATHER THAN IOWA OR
MINNESOTA. A LINE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT
WITH BOWING SEGMENTS...HOWEVER GIVEN THE FORECASTED LAPSE RATES
WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH DISCRETE CELLS WILL HAVE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT TO WORK WITH ACROSS ALL OF THE WARM SECTORED CWA.
PLANNING ON PLACING AN EQUAL SEVERE THREAT OF WINDS...HAIL...AND
TORNADOES...IN THE HWO AND THE MENTION THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE
PRIMARILY DURING HOURS OF DARKNESS.

[CrazyC83]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
310 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-221100-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABERDEEN...AMORY...BARTLETT...
BATESVILLE...BLYTHEVILLE...BOLIVAR...BOONEVILLE...
CARUTHERSVILLE...CLARKSDALE...COLLIERVILLE...CORINTH...
COVINGTON...DRESDEN...DYERSBURG...FORREST CITY...GERMANTOWN...
HARRISBURG...HELENA...HUMBOLDT...HUNTINGDON...IUKA...JACKSON...
JONESBORO...KENNETT...LEXINGTON...MARTIN...MEMPHIS...MILAN...
MILLINGTON...NEW ALBANY...OLIVE BRANCH...OXFORD...PARAGOULD...
PARIS...SAVANNAH...SOMERVILLE...SOUTHAVEN...TUNICA...TUPELO...
UNION CITY...WALNUT RIDGE...WEST MEMPHIS...WYNNE
310 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2012

...A STRONG SPRING LIKE STORM WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH ON SUNDAY...

THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM
MOIST GULF AIR WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES
ARE ALL POSSIBLE. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED AFTER
SUNSET MAKING THE EVENT MORE LIFE THREATENING.

THIS IS THE TIME TO REVIEW YOUR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PLANS
...INCLUDING WHERE YOUR SAFE SHELTER IS LOCATED...AND HOW YOU ARE
GOING TO RECEIVE WARNINGS IF ONE IS ISSUED FOR YOUR IMMEDIATE
AREA. THIS IS THE FIRST POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT IN THE MIDSOUTH FOR 2012.

TRAINED STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...ALONG WITH FIRE
AND LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS ARE URGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE
WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MEMPHIS VIA PHONE OR THE WEB.

PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING THIS SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT.

$$

JAB

[CrazyC83]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
835 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-220600-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...
JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLINTON...
BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...
MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...
DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...
CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...
BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
835 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2012

...SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY EVENING...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR REGION ON SUNDAY.
WARM MOIST AIR COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA.

HAZARDS: DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE
REGION...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IS SIGNIFICANT AS WELL.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE A MORE ISOLATED THREAT. THE STORMS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
THROUGHOUT THE AREA.

TIMING: THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM
7PM THROUGH 2AM SUNDAY NIGHT.

LOCATION: STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP OR SPREAD
NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD FROM THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL FROM NEW MADRID UP THROUGH
CAPE GIRARDEAU. THESE INITIAL STORMS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.

THROUGH THE EVENING...THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXTEND
EASTWARD...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ANNA TO EDDYVILLE ILLINOIS TO
MARION AND CENTRAL CITY KENTUCKY. THIS INCLUDES EXTREME SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND MOST OF WEST KENTUCKY. CHANCES FOR TORNADOES WILL BE
HIGHEST NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS...TENNESSEE BORDERS.

THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE GREATER THREAT TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA OUTLINED ABOVE. WIND DAMAGE AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERNS OVER THE EVANSVILLE TRI
STATE AREA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.

PREPARATION: INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL BE MOVING OVER 50 MPH...SO THERE
WILL BE LITTLE TIME TO TAKE ACTION. REVIEW YOUR SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY PLANS NOW...INCLUDING WHERE YOUR SAFE SHELTER IS LOCATED.
KNOW HOW YOU ARE GOING TO RECEIVE WARNINGS IF ONE IS ISSUED FOR
YOUR IMMEDIATE AREA. HAVE MULTIPLE MEANS OF RECEIVING THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION. THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHT TIME
HOURS...YOU WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SEE THE STORMS APPROACHING...SO
PLEASE HEED WARNINGS WHEN THEY ARE ISSUED FOR OR NEAR YOUR
LOCATION.

PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING THIS SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT VIA NOAA WEATHER RADIO...THE NWS PADUCAH KY WEBSITE
OR FACEBOOK PAGE AND LOCAL MEDIA SOURCES.

$$

[CrazyC83]

NWS Nashville

000
FXUS64 KOHX 220345
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
945 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2012

.UPDATE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...
LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TRAPPED AND KEEP SKIES OVC. MEANWHILE...COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 30S.

HAVE MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO GRIDDED FORECAST, BUT NOT
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A ZFP FORECAST UPDATE.

CLOUDS MAY VERY WELL BREAK DURING THE 12Z-18Z PERIOD SUNDAY
MORNING AND ALLOW FOR SOME RAPID WARMING, AS WARMER AIR JUST OFF
THE SURFACE RAPIDLY MIXES TO THE SURFACE AND SENDS TEMPS INTO THE
50S BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT SOME STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT TO OCCUR
18Z TO 00Z/23, LEADING TO A RETURN TO MOSTLY OVC CONDITIONS.

HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON WHETHER BREAKS IN THE OVC
OCCUR (IN WHICH CASE RAPID LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL ENSUE). LATEST
MET MOS HAS COOLED ITS MAX TEMP EXPECTATION BY 5 DEGS AT BNA FOR
TOMORROW AND HOLDS A SOLID OVC IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AND A
HIGH OF 57 AT BNA. HOWEVER, USUALLY WHEN A LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD
STRENGTHENS TO THE DEGREE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW THE OVC WILL
USUALLY BREAK FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. EITHER WAY, IT LOOKS LIKE
A VERY MILD AND BREEZY DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A POTENT
COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE POTENTIAL SEVERE EVENT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT WE`VE SEEN IN A WHILE. MID-STATE RESIDENTS SHOULD
REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER FAMILY ACTION PLANS, AND KNOW HOW TO RESPOND
IF ANY SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. KNOW WHERE YOUR SAFE
PLACE WILL BE (SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR). IN ADDITION, IT`S ALWAYS A GOOD IDEA TO ENSURE THAT YOUR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO HAS FRESH BATTERIES IN THE EVENT THAT POWER
OUTAGES OCCUR.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR TNZ011-032>034-065-
066-078>080.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

19

[CrazyC83]

Moderate Risk issued. More details forthcoming.

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 220558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2012

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN AR...WRN TN
AND NRN MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO
MID MS VALLEY...OH AND TN VALLEYS...

...REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING...

...LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY...
A POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE EWD INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY AND INTO THE MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE
TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CLOSES
OFF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A 50 TO 70 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL EXPAND NWD ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY TODAY WITH
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F ARE FORECAST TO REACH AS FAR
NORTH AS MEMPHIS TN BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP
A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY SSWWD ACROSS ERN AR. MODEL
FORECASTS RAPIDLY INITIATE STORMS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS AROUND
23/00Z. THESE STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS A LINEAR
MCS ORGANIZES AND MOVES EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING.

AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE MID MS VALLEY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...A CYCLONICALLY CURVED 70 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL
CREATE A STRONG WIND FIELD FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL AND LOW-LEVEL JETS WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WITH TORNADIC SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE
GREATEST AS DISCRETE STORMS INITIATE IN ERN AR AND MOVE EWD INTO NW
MS AND INTO THE MEMPHIS AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FOR MEMPHIS AT 03Z SHOW 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF 400 TO
450 M2/S2 SUGGESTING A FEW STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH A
LONG-TRACK TORNADO POSSIBLE. THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO
HAVE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL BUT THIS THREAT APPEARS
CONDITIONAL UPON THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. THE
GREATER THREAT SHOULD BE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS A LINE FORMS
THIS EVENING AND MOVES EWD ACROSS WRN TO MIDDLE TN...NRN MS AND NRN
AL. SOME WIND GUSTS OF GREATER THAN 70 KT APPEAR POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
STRONG WIND FIELDS AND VERY FOCUSED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.

...MID MS AND OH VALLEY...
A POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU
EARLY THIS EVENING AS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE IN THE MID-MS
VALLEY. VERY STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES EVIDENT ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID LINEAR DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING FROM ERN IL SWD INTO WRN KY. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD
DEVELOP AS THE LINE SURGES QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY DURING
THE MID TO LATE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH
VALLEY DURING THE 03Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME SUGGEST THAT A COOL SFC
INVERSION WILL EXIST IN SPITE OF STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION. FOR THIS
REASON...THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL EXCEPT IN
SRN KY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS COULD APPROACH 60 F.

..BROYLES/GARNER.. 01/22/2012

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

[cycloneye]

Moderate Risk.

[Cookie]

could be an interesting night!

[CrazyC83]

Could it go up to High Risk for some?

[CrazyC83]

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 221635
ALZ000-ARZ000-ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-230200-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI...LOWER OHIO...AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...AND HAIL OVER
PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...LOWER OHIO...AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

NORTHWEST ALABAMA
EASTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHERN INDIANA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY
SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE

SURROUNDING THE GREATEST RISK AREA...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF
MICHIGAN...OHIO...AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.

A POWERFUL JET STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD TODAY...REACHING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY...FURTHER INTENSIFYING IN THE PROCESS.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE JET STREAM IMPULSE...A STRONG SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS KANSAS TODAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS
MISSOURI AND IOWA TONIGHT...BEFORE REACHING WISCONSIN EARLY MONDAY.
AHEAD OF THE LOW...A BROAD CURRENT OF FAST SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
USHER UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI...LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.

A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
INTENSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
OVER PARTS OF ILLINOIS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...ARKANSAS...AND
LOUISIANA AS THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS THE INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID
AIR.

AS THE STORMS BUILD AND INTERACT WITH THE JET STREAM WINDS...SOME OF
THEM LIKELY WILL BECOME LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS...POSING A RISK FOR
STRONG TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THE TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT OVER
EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND WESTERN TENNESSEE.
THE STORMS LIKELY WILL EVOLVE INTO AN EXTENSIVE LINE LATER
TONIGHT...EXTENDING THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES THROUGH DAWN MONDAY NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS
TONIGHT.

..MEAD/CORFIDI.. 01/22/2012

$$

[WeatherGuesser]

Could it go up to High Risk for some?

Well, not unheard of:

January 21, 1999 Arkansas[9][10] Tornado outbreak produced 99 tornadoes; killed 9 Only High Risk ever issued in January

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_SPC_high-risk_days



Note the date too.

[CrazyC83]

That was the standard-bearer for January tornado outbreaks.

I think we might be seeing a PDS Tornado Watch in the area by late afternoon.

[psyclone]

this looks like a significant event, especially for the Jackson, Memphis and Paducah CWAs. fast moving, noctural tornadoes in winter is about as scary as it gets. i hope folks are paying attention, especially in the highest risk tornado zone, which looks like northern mississippi and western tennessee at this point.

[CrazyC83]

this looks like a significant event, especially for the Jackson, Memphis and Paducah CWAs. fast moving, noctural tornadoes in winter is about as scary as it gets. i hope folks are paying attention, especially in the highest risk tornado zone, which looks like northern mississippi and western tennessee at this point.

Yep this is a pretty scary setup. The low is deeper than forecast too. Might be a case for High Risk at 2000Z.

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
110 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2012

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-222200-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...
LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...
HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...
LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...
BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...
LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...
SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...
JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
110 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2012 /1210 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012/

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TONIGHT...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT NEAR THE REGION. A LINE OF STRONG
AND SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STRONG LINE OF
STORMS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I 65. ADDITIONAL THREATS WILL BE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

THE LINE OF STRONG STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE WEST OF I 65 BETWEEN 1
AM AND 4 AM EST...ALONG THE I 65 CORRIDOR AROUND 3 TO 4 AM EST...
AND EAST OF I 65 BETWEEN 4 AM AND 7 AM EST. THESE TIMES ARE
SUBJECT TO CHANGE ESPECIALLY IF THE STORM SURGES OUT IN CERTAIN
AREAS.

THIS EVENT HAS POTENTIAL TO BE ESPECIALLY HAZARDOUS SINCE IT WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH WHEN MOST PEOPLE ARE ASLEEP. THE PUBLIC IS
STRONGLY URGED TO HAVE A PLAN IN PLACE AS WELL AS A WAY TO RECEIVE
WARNINGS BEFORE THEY GO TO SLEEP TONIGHT.

$$

BJS

[psyclone]

Even well north of the higher tor risk area, the potential for widespread damaging winds is significant. those 850mb winds are gonna be screaming. a classic low cape, high shear cold season severe episode. for folks in the northern reaches of the severe risk zone, the weather will appear to have gone mad. they woke up today to snowcover and temps well below freezing and tonight may feature severe convective weather with springlike temps.

[CrazyC83]

This kinda feels like February 5, 2008.