DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT MON APR 09 2012
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE
AND WRN OK...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS...
...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
TODAY. AT THE SFC...A DRYLINE WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED DURING THE
DAY IN FAR WRN OK NEAR THE OK-TX STATE-LINE. MODEL FORECASTS RAPIDLY
WEAKEN THE CAPPING INVERSION THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR VIGOROUS
SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR SRN KS...NW OK AND THE
FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SSEWD ACROSS SWRN
OK INTO NW TX THIS EVENING. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE REGION.
TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST FROM SW KS EXTENDING SSEWD ACROSS WRN OK WHERE THE NAM AND
NAMKF INCREASE MLCAPE INTO THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z IN WRN OK SHOW STRONG
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 700 MB WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 45 TO 55 KT
RANGE SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 TO
8.5 C/KM SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. THE MORE INTENSE
SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES
IN DIAMETER. THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT SUPERCELLS WILL PRODUCE A CONCENTRATED LARGE
HAIL THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN
OK. THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ALSO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES. AS STORMS EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND MOVE
SSEWD...THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LINEAR WITH
A WIND DAMAGE THREAT GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS SW OK AND NW TX.
...WEST TX...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY
WITH AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS WEST TX BY MIDDAY.
ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT VERY WEAK SUGGESTING CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z SOUTH OF LUBBOCK AND NORTHWEST
OF DEL RIO SHOW MLCAPE OF 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 35
KT. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A
HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN INITIATE SHOULD
STRUGGLE DURING THE EVENING AS A CAPPING INVERSION BECOMES
RE-ESTABLISHED.
..BROYLES/MOSIER.. 04/09/2012
Here we go again.......
