I'm personally expecting a Moderate risk to be issued at the upcoming 6z Day 2 Outlook; NWS Des Moines has mentioned that they wouldn't be surprised to see this go Moderate or even High as the event progresses:
AFTER A BRIEF LULL INTO THE NIGHT ATTENTION TURNS UPSTREAM WITH
INCREASING INFLUENCE BY MATURING ROCKIES LONG WAVE TROUGH. STRONG
THETA-E ADVECTION AND ADVANCING ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN MO VALLEY MCS ENTERING SWRN IA PLUS/MINUS 12Z.
THIS THERMODYNAMIC FORCING CONTINUES INTO THE DAY ALONG WITH
INCREASING KINEMATIC FORCING AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AS AS WARM FRONT
MATURES INTO IA. NAM/GFS MLCAPES BOTH DEPICT MLCAPES OVER 3000 J/KG
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LITTLE CINH SO THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM
INITIATING CONVECTION AND HAVE BOOSTED POPS THROUGH THE LIKELIES TO
CATEGORICAL IN SPOTS. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR ARE IMPRESSIVE...AS
WELL AS HODOGRAPHS WITH SRH WELL INTO THE HUNDREDS...SO TORNADIC
POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY DISCONCERTING. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS BOTH DEPICT
VERY FAVORABLE TORNADO PARAMETERS WITH ELEVATED SIG TOR VALUES AND
SUFFICIENTLY LOW LCLS. WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED TO SEE CURRENT
DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK ELEVATED TO MODERATE OR HIGH ALONG AND SOUTH OF
WHERE EVER THE FRONT EVENTUALLY LAYS OUT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES EXCEED 2SDS IN THE WARM SECTOR AS WELL SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS ARE ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE NOT AS
IDEALISTIC...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE PEAK HEATING CONVECTION MAY
BRIEFLY OCCUR IN ERN SECTIONS MON BEFORE ADVANCING EWD WITH THE
FRONT.
Current SPC Day 3 Outlook:
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT FRI MAY 09 2014
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY TO THE
SRN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE APPEARS PROBABLE BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS.
...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE SRN GREAT BASIN TO THE SRN
ROCKIES. ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY MON. AT THE SURFACE...A
LEE CYCLONE WILL DIURNALLY DEEPEN OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE
DRYLINE SHOULD MIX TOWARDS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK BORDER S/SWWD
ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE ACCELERATION OF A
S/SEWD-PROGRESSING COLD FRONT OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.
...MID-MS VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS...
PERVASIVE AND STRENGTHENING SWLYS AT 700 MB WILL RESULT IN AN
EXPANDING EML PLUME AND ATTENDANT CAPPING INVERSION EARLY SUN...WITH
INCREASINGLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE GIVEN STRONG POLEWARD
ADVECTION FROM THE WRN GULF. MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS
SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY SWD...YIELDING A
BROAD STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE AOA 2500 J/KG AHEAD OF
THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT. THE NRN EXTENT OF STRONG DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD BE DELIMITED BY EARLY SUN WAA-DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF
THE LOWER MO VALLEY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE E/NEWD
THROUGH THE DAY WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK...BUT MORE PROBABLE
SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR WITH SWRN EXTENT WHERE
GREATER INSOLATION OCCURS. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY YIELD INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS STORMS LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING FROM ERN KS INTO SRN IA. LARGE HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/ AND A
FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
UNDERCUTTING BY THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD CLUSTER AND EVENTUAL LINEAR
MODES WITH SEVERE HAIL/WIND HAZARDS PERSISTING INTO SUN NIGHT. A
LARGE MCS MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND BROADLY UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR.
FARTHER S...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL STRENGTHEN
/ESPECIALLY INVOF TRIPLE-POINT/ AND INTENSE SURFACE HEATING SHOULD
REMOVE INHIBITION...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING
LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH HODOGRAPHS MAY NOT BE OVERLY
LARGE...CROSS-BOUNDARY DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. RELATIVELY
LARGE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD. THE TORNADO RISK SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN
EARLY EVENING AS A SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS AND SPREADS LOWER. EWD EXTENT
OF OVERNIGHT SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN OWING TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN COLD FRONT EVOLUTION AND DEGREE OF NOCTURNAL WARM
SECTOR INHIBITION.
..GRAMS.. 05/09/2014
