Day 3 Outlook for Tuesday coming in a bit. Latest models are pretty amazing to look out, with helicity values maxed out along the warm front in Nebraska by 0z Wednesday. 0-3km SRH on the order of 1200m2/s2 and 0-1km SRH approaching 800m2/s2 on the 0z GFS.
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
...DISCUSSION...
WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE 4-8 PERIOD WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ADVANCING THROUGH THE LOW-AMPLITUDE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE...A MEANDERING E-W FRONT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS AREA EWD INTO THE NERN
STATES AND MID ATLANTIC.
TUESDAY /DAY 4/...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL ADVANCE INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGIONS. THIS FEATURE WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS IT CRESTS UPPER RIDGE BUT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 50
TO 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE...WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD BENEATH
THE STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD
ABOVE THE MOIST WARM SECTOR. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AS
THEY DEVELOP EWD TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION. SUPERCELLS AND
ORGANIZED BOW ECHO SYSTEMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGLY
SHEARED AND MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. LARGE HAIL
AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW TORNADOES.
WED /DAY 5/...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY WHERE AN E-W FRONT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A MOIST...UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY. BELT
OF STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE IMPULSE...AND STORMS
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE ONGOING
MCS TO CONTINUE. VERTICAL SHEAR FROM 35-40 KT AND A FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS
AND ORGANIZED MCS EVENTS WITH LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND.
BEYOND WED...PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR AN OUTLOOK AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FROM THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC DAY 6-7.
..DIAL.. 05/31/2014
Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Tue-Wed (6/2-3)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
-
TropicalAnalystwx13
- Category 5
- Posts: 2109
- Age: 26
- Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
- Location: Wilmington, NC
- Contact:
Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Tue-Wed (6/2-3)
Last edited by TropicalAnalystwx13 on Mon Jun 02, 2014 11:13 am, edited 3 times in total.
0 likes
-
WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2014
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEB INTO NRN KS...SRN
IA...NRN MO AND WRN IL...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE CNTRL AND
NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY AREAS...
...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY FROM A PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS. LARGE
HAIL AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND ARE LIKELY...BUT TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES.
...SYNOPSIS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE CA COAST WILL REACH THE
GREAT BASIN OR CENTRAL ROCKIES BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
THEN RAPIDLY EJECT EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...DEAMPLIFYING IN THE
PROCESS. A STRONG UPPER JET WITH 60-70 KT AT 500 MB WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS IMPULSE. AT THE SFC A FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE OH VALLEY WWD
INTO NEB WHILE A LEE CYCLONE DEEPENS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING WLYS ALOFT AND FORCING ATTENDING THE
EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN SHIFT EWD ALONG
THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. TO THE SOUTH OF
THE SFC LOW A DRYLINE WILL SETUP ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGIONS...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENTS TUESDAY WITH A THREAT
FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND.
A FEW STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND ON NOSE OF A
SLY LLJ ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN NEB INTO SD. RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE IN WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF
THE FRONT THAT WILL LIFT NWD INTO NEB AND SRN IA. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THIS BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY WHERE INFLUENCE OF DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MAY LIMIT OR DELAY ITS NWD PROGRESS. MEANWHILE...PLUME OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML WILL ADVECT THROUGH
THE CNTRL PLAINS MOIST WARM SECTOR WITHIN BELT OF STRENGTHENING
WLYS. THESE PROCESSES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SOUTH OF
THE FRONT /2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE/ AS THE SFC LAYER WARMS. HEIGHT
FALLS...STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ...AND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THAT PORTION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE CLOSER TO THE WARM
SECTOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASING TO AOA 50 KT AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH ANY ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND NEAR TRIPLE POINT AND POSSIBLY
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG DRYLINE INTO WRN KS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND WILL BE LIKELY WITH INITIAL STORMS. ALSO STORM MOTION
VECTORS WOULD SUPPORT STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON WARM FRONT TO MOVE ELY
OR ESELY...LIKELY REMAINING IN PROXIMITY TO THIS BOUNDARY WHERE
INFLUX OF HIGH THETA-E AIR AND 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL BE
MAXIMIZED...SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD
BE STRONG. DURATION OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY STORMS BEGIN TO CONGEAL AND GROW UPSCALE.
STORMS OVER NEB SHOULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AND FORWARD
PROPAGATE EWD...SUSTAINED BY THE STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND NATURE OF THE VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES...THREAT WILL EXIST FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND WITH BOW
ECHO AND LEWP STRUCTURES AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM
PORTIONS OF NEB INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION.
...CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...
OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY AND MT AND
SPREAD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.
..DIAL.. 06/02/2014
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2014
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEB INTO NRN KS...SRN
IA...NRN MO AND WRN IL...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE CNTRL AND
NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY AREAS...
...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY FROM A PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS. LARGE
HAIL AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND ARE LIKELY...BUT TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES.
...SYNOPSIS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE CA COAST WILL REACH THE
GREAT BASIN OR CENTRAL ROCKIES BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
THEN RAPIDLY EJECT EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...DEAMPLIFYING IN THE
PROCESS. A STRONG UPPER JET WITH 60-70 KT AT 500 MB WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS IMPULSE. AT THE SFC A FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE OH VALLEY WWD
INTO NEB WHILE A LEE CYCLONE DEEPENS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING WLYS ALOFT AND FORCING ATTENDING THE
EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN SHIFT EWD ALONG
THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. TO THE SOUTH OF
THE SFC LOW A DRYLINE WILL SETUP ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGIONS...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENTS TUESDAY WITH A THREAT
FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND.
A FEW STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND ON NOSE OF A
SLY LLJ ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN NEB INTO SD. RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE IN WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF
THE FRONT THAT WILL LIFT NWD INTO NEB AND SRN IA. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THIS BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY WHERE INFLUENCE OF DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MAY LIMIT OR DELAY ITS NWD PROGRESS. MEANWHILE...PLUME OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML WILL ADVECT THROUGH
THE CNTRL PLAINS MOIST WARM SECTOR WITHIN BELT OF STRENGTHENING
WLYS. THESE PROCESSES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SOUTH OF
THE FRONT /2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE/ AS THE SFC LAYER WARMS. HEIGHT
FALLS...STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ...AND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THAT PORTION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE CLOSER TO THE WARM
SECTOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASING TO AOA 50 KT AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH ANY ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND NEAR TRIPLE POINT AND POSSIBLY
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG DRYLINE INTO WRN KS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND WILL BE LIKELY WITH INITIAL STORMS. ALSO STORM MOTION
VECTORS WOULD SUPPORT STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON WARM FRONT TO MOVE ELY
OR ESELY...LIKELY REMAINING IN PROXIMITY TO THIS BOUNDARY WHERE
INFLUX OF HIGH THETA-E AIR AND 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL BE
MAXIMIZED...SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD
BE STRONG. DURATION OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY STORMS BEGIN TO CONGEAL AND GROW UPSCALE.
STORMS OVER NEB SHOULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AND FORWARD
PROPAGATE EWD...SUSTAINED BY THE STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND NATURE OF THE VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES...THREAT WILL EXIST FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND WITH BOW
ECHO AND LEWP STRUCTURES AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM
PORTIONS OF NEB INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION.
...CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...
OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY AND MT AND
SPREAD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.
..DIAL.. 06/02/2014
0 likes
-
TropicalAnalystwx13
- Category 5
- Posts: 2109
- Age: 26
- Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
- Location: Wilmington, NC
- Contact:
Very volatile day tomorrow, the best combination of parameters I've seen all year. I'm expecting a Day 1 high risk.
Numerous tornadoes, some significant to violent, widespread damaging winds, and many large hail reports likely tomorrow.
NWS North Platte:
AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE EXPLOSIVE WITH
VERY STRONG UPDRAFTS POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AT THIS TIME...WITH THE FRONT BEING LAID OUT FROM SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE THE ENVIRONMENT
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THE INTENSITY OF THE UPDRAFTS EXPECTED...BELIEVE VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT WITH
THE WARM FRONT SET-UP...FORECAST PARAMETERS FOR INVOLVING LOW
LEVEL HELICITY AND INSTABILITY...INCLUDING THE SIGNIFICANT TOR
PARAMETER SHOWS TORNADOES COULD BE OF CONCERN MAINLY NEAR THE WARM
FRONT.
NWS Hastings:
TUESDAY...AS MENTIONED IN THE OPENING PARAGRAPH...THIS APPEARS TO
LIKELY BE ONE OF THE MOST VOLATILE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENTS OF
THE YEAR. THAT IS A BIG STATEMENT SO LETS LOOK IN DETAIL AT THE
EXPECTED ENVIRONMENT. FORCING...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
EAST OUT OF WYOMING/COLORADO TUESDAY MORNING INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A 992-996 MB SFC LOW WILL
TRACK EAST ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER THROUGH THE DAY. A
VERY PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BE DRAPED FROM WEST TO EAST
OVER OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WITH A DRY LINE RUNNING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES. SHEAR...THE
00Z GFS AND 06Z NAM ARE BOTH INDICATING 0-6 KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES OF 60 TO 75 KTS...WITH THE NAM EVEN SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL
OF OVER 80 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LOW LEVEL SHEAR OF 0-1 KM WILL
BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT BY EARLY
EVENING WITH THE 00Z GFS INDICATING 30-35 KTS...AND THE 06Z NAM
SHOWING 35-40 KTS. THIS IS A LOT OF SHEAR...ESPECIALLY DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...AND THE MOST I HAVE SEEN FOR A JUNE EVENT WITH THIS MUCH
INSTABILITY/CAPE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IN PERHAPS A FEW YEARS. IF
IT PANS OUT...EXPECT STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO ROTATE RATHER EASILY.
CAPE...MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN BY 18Z/1PM THUS INDICATING THAT
THIS SEVERE EVENT COULD KICK OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME TIMES
TOO MUCH SHEAR CAN BLOW AN UPDRAFT OVER AND KILL A STORM...BUT
WITH SO MUCH CAPE/INSTABILITY THAT SEEMS UNLIKELY. IT SHOULD BE
HIGHLIGHTED THAT IT IS LIKELY THAT NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN FROM
THIS EVENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE DRY LINE. OUR POPS MAY EVEN BE A
TOUCH TOO HIGH. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD BE
ABSOLUTE MONSTERS. BOTTOM LINE IS BE WEATHER AWARE ON TUESDAY AND
KEEP UP TO DATE ON CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS THE EXPECTED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONS COULD STILL SHIFT SOME THIS FAR OUT.
NWS Omaha:
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL EJECT
INTO THE PLAINS AND DAMPEN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. FAST MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL INDUCE STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES...WITH MODELS INDICATING SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN IN
NORTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF IT...WARM FRONT OVER
NORTHERN KANSAS SHOULD LIFT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
BRINGING SOUPY 70F DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WITH IT. FLOW AT ALL
LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SOUTHERLY 850 WINDS NEAR 40KT RIDING OVER FRONTAL ZONE. BULK SHEAR
VALUES WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY...TOPPING 70KT...WITH MOST-UNSTABLE
CAPES NORTH OF 3000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG
WARM FRONT WHERE 0-1KM ENERGY-HELICITY INDICES ARE FORECAST IN THE 5
TO 10+ RANGE. ALL THIS POINTS TO A GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD QUICKLY EAST ALONG
WARM FRONT AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ALL MODES
OF SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE...WITH STRONG/LONG-TRACK TORNADOES POSSIBLE
NEAR WARM FRONT. THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OF WESTERN IOWA OVERNIGHT.
Numerous tornadoes, some significant to violent, widespread damaging winds, and many large hail reports likely tomorrow.
NWS North Platte:
AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE EXPLOSIVE WITH
VERY STRONG UPDRAFTS POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AT THIS TIME...WITH THE FRONT BEING LAID OUT FROM SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE THE ENVIRONMENT
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THE INTENSITY OF THE UPDRAFTS EXPECTED...BELIEVE VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT WITH
THE WARM FRONT SET-UP...FORECAST PARAMETERS FOR INVOLVING LOW
LEVEL HELICITY AND INSTABILITY...INCLUDING THE SIGNIFICANT TOR
PARAMETER SHOWS TORNADOES COULD BE OF CONCERN MAINLY NEAR THE WARM
FRONT.
NWS Hastings:
TUESDAY...AS MENTIONED IN THE OPENING PARAGRAPH...THIS APPEARS TO
LIKELY BE ONE OF THE MOST VOLATILE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENTS OF
THE YEAR. THAT IS A BIG STATEMENT SO LETS LOOK IN DETAIL AT THE
EXPECTED ENVIRONMENT. FORCING...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
EAST OUT OF WYOMING/COLORADO TUESDAY MORNING INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A 992-996 MB SFC LOW WILL
TRACK EAST ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER THROUGH THE DAY. A
VERY PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BE DRAPED FROM WEST TO EAST
OVER OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WITH A DRY LINE RUNNING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES. SHEAR...THE
00Z GFS AND 06Z NAM ARE BOTH INDICATING 0-6 KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES OF 60 TO 75 KTS...WITH THE NAM EVEN SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL
OF OVER 80 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LOW LEVEL SHEAR OF 0-1 KM WILL
BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT BY EARLY
EVENING WITH THE 00Z GFS INDICATING 30-35 KTS...AND THE 06Z NAM
SHOWING 35-40 KTS. THIS IS A LOT OF SHEAR...ESPECIALLY DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...AND THE MOST I HAVE SEEN FOR A JUNE EVENT WITH THIS MUCH
INSTABILITY/CAPE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IN PERHAPS A FEW YEARS. IF
IT PANS OUT...EXPECT STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO ROTATE RATHER EASILY.
CAPE...MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN BY 18Z/1PM THUS INDICATING THAT
THIS SEVERE EVENT COULD KICK OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME TIMES
TOO MUCH SHEAR CAN BLOW AN UPDRAFT OVER AND KILL A STORM...BUT
WITH SO MUCH CAPE/INSTABILITY THAT SEEMS UNLIKELY. IT SHOULD BE
HIGHLIGHTED THAT IT IS LIKELY THAT NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN FROM
THIS EVENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE DRY LINE. OUR POPS MAY EVEN BE A
TOUCH TOO HIGH. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD BE
ABSOLUTE MONSTERS. BOTTOM LINE IS BE WEATHER AWARE ON TUESDAY AND
KEEP UP TO DATE ON CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS THE EXPECTED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONS COULD STILL SHIFT SOME THIS FAR OUT.
NWS Omaha:
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL EJECT
INTO THE PLAINS AND DAMPEN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. FAST MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL INDUCE STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES...WITH MODELS INDICATING SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN IN
NORTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF IT...WARM FRONT OVER
NORTHERN KANSAS SHOULD LIFT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
BRINGING SOUPY 70F DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WITH IT. FLOW AT ALL
LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SOUTHERLY 850 WINDS NEAR 40KT RIDING OVER FRONTAL ZONE. BULK SHEAR
VALUES WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY...TOPPING 70KT...WITH MOST-UNSTABLE
CAPES NORTH OF 3000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG
WARM FRONT WHERE 0-1KM ENERGY-HELICITY INDICES ARE FORECAST IN THE 5
TO 10+ RANGE. ALL THIS POINTS TO A GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD QUICKLY EAST ALONG
WARM FRONT AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ALL MODES
OF SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE...WITH STRONG/LONG-TRACK TORNADOES POSSIBLE
NEAR WARM FRONT. THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OF WESTERN IOWA OVERNIGHT.
0 likes
-
TropicalAnalystwx13
- Category 5
- Posts: 2109
- Age: 26
- Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
- Location: Wilmington, NC
- Contact:
-
TropicalAnalystwx13
- Category 5
- Posts: 2109
- Age: 26
- Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
- Location: Wilmington, NC
- Contact:
@GCarbin 2m
One of the highest forecast supercell composite parameter values I've ever seen from the NAM4 valid at Lincoln, NE Tues. PM...65!
http://twitter.com/GCarbin/status/473634946699902976
One of the highest forecast supercell composite parameter values I've ever seen from the NAM4 valid at Lincoln, NE Tues. PM...65!
http://twitter.com/GCarbin/status/473634946699902976
0 likes
-
TropicalAnalystwx13
- Category 5
- Posts: 2109
- Age: 26
- Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
- Location: Wilmington, NC
- Contact:
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014
VALID 031630Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN/SOUTHERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI AND
WESTERN ILLINOIS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY/MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF NEBRASKA THROUGH IOWA...NORTHERN
MISSOURI...AND INTO ILLINOIS. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS...VERY LARGE
HAIL...AND A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED.
...SYNOPSIS...
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 70KT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL CREST A
STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AND PRODUCE MODEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO
SPURRING LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT SITUATED
FROM NEB PANHANDLE ESEWD TO NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER.
A BROAD ZONE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN WY/CO WILL CONSOLIDATE
INTO LEE-CYCLONE AND TRACK TO WRN NEB BY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
MESO-LOWS/FRONTAL WAVES MAY FORM AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE WARM
FRONT...AIDED BY LATENT HEATING/DEEP CONVECTION...INTO LATE EVENING.
SOUTH OF THE LOW/WARM FRONT...A DRYLINE/THERMAL TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EXTEND FROM WRN NEB SSWWD
THROUGH WRN KS TO FAR ERN NM.
IN THE EAST...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR
JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE EAST FROM ERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND.
...SD/NEB TO IA/MO THROUGH LATE EVENING...
INTENSE STORMS POSING PRIMARILY A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL ARE ALREADY
UNDERWAY NORTH OF SFC WARM FRONT AND NEAR THE SD/NE BORDER THIS
MORNING /REF WW 206/. THIS CONVECTION WAS LIKELY ROOTED ABOVE THE
850MB LEVEL IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEPENING MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. EXPECT THESE ELEVATED STORMS
TO PERSIST GIVEN MASS AND MOISTURE FLUXES NOW UNDERWAY IN RESPONSE
TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DIABATIC PROCESSES.
BY MID-AFTERNOON...ELEVATED STORMS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO... 1) A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM
FRONT...AND 2) A DEEPENING COLD POOL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT.
MODEST TO LOCALLY STRONG WARM SECTOR SFC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
WEAKENING INHIBITION AND AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO
BECOME ROOTED IN A VERY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE FRONT BY
LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITHIN
THE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME OVER PARTS OF SD/NEB.
A FEW MODELS SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED WARM SECTOR DISCRETE STORMS
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NEB. ANY DISCRETE
STORMS INITIATING NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIST IN AN IDEAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS OF
200 M2/S2 AND RELATIVELY LOW LFC. AWAY FROM THE FRONT AND NEAR THE
DRYLINE...HEATING AND DEEPER MIXING MAY OFFSET THE TORNADO POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT AND RESULT IN MORE OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORMS WITH HIGH WIND
AND VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.
WHILE ABOVE SCENARIO HAS LOW TO MODEST CONFIDENCE...GREATER
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE CONTINUATION AND GRADUAL UPSCALE GROWTH OF
ONGOING CONVECTION INTO AN COMPLEX OF EVEN MORE INTENSE
STORMS...INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...MOVING ESEWD TO ERN NEB AND
THEN TO SRN IA/NRN MO THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. THIS CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP INTO AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 3000-4000 J
PER KG/ COINCIDENT WITH INTENSIFICATION OF A WLY 60-70KT MID-LEVEL
JET. BOTH PARALLEL ARW/NMMB HIRES WINDOWS DEPICT THIS SCENARIO QUITE
WELL BUT STILL OFFER DIFFERING OUTCOMES IN TIME/INTENSITY AND
PLACEMENT OF GREATEST HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN
DERECHO EVOLUTION ACROSS NEB/IA/MO AREA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND A COUPLE OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES IN THESE AREAS.
IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THIS WIDESPREAD SEVERE WIND
SCENARIO...A HIGH RISK AREA MAY BE ADDED IN THE AFTERNOON SWODY1
UPDATE.
...ACROSS THE MS RIVER TO IL/IND BEFORE DAYBREAK WED...
MCS/DERECHO SHOULD MAINTAIN DAMAGING WIND AND SOME HAIL POTENTIAL
EAST ACROSS THE MS RIVER AND INTO IL/IND...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
CDT. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION MAY ACT TO OFFSET MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WIND THREAT WITH TIME...UPSCALE STORM ORGANIZATION AND
CONTINUING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS AT LEAST MODEST
SEVERE WIND PROBABILITIES/SLGT RISK AREA IS WARRANTED AS FAR EAST AS
CENTRAL IND THROUGH DAYBREAK WED.
...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY NEWD TO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...
DIURNAL HEATING OF MIDDLE 60S-LOWER 70S PRE-FRONTAL SFC
DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT POCKETS OF MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY -- I.E. IN THE WAKE OF A BAND OF WEAK H85-H7 WARM
ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION CROSSING THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE WEAK...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ASCENT WILL BE
LOCALLY AUGMENTED BY DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING-INDUCED BAROCLINICITY
AHEAD OF THE ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION -- I.E. ACROSS NRN NY TO THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BUOYANCY AND 30-40 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW...SPORADIC
INSTANCES OF DMGG WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY ORGANIZED IN MULTICELL CLUSTERS.
..CARBIN/COHEN/KERR.. 06/03/2014
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014
VALID 031630Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN/SOUTHERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI AND
WESTERN ILLINOIS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY/MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF NEBRASKA THROUGH IOWA...NORTHERN
MISSOURI...AND INTO ILLINOIS. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS...VERY LARGE
HAIL...AND A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED.
...SYNOPSIS...
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 70KT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL CREST A
STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AND PRODUCE MODEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO
SPURRING LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT SITUATED
FROM NEB PANHANDLE ESEWD TO NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER.
A BROAD ZONE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN WY/CO WILL CONSOLIDATE
INTO LEE-CYCLONE AND TRACK TO WRN NEB BY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
MESO-LOWS/FRONTAL WAVES MAY FORM AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE WARM
FRONT...AIDED BY LATENT HEATING/DEEP CONVECTION...INTO LATE EVENING.
SOUTH OF THE LOW/WARM FRONT...A DRYLINE/THERMAL TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EXTEND FROM WRN NEB SSWWD
THROUGH WRN KS TO FAR ERN NM.
IN THE EAST...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR
JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE EAST FROM ERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND.
...SD/NEB TO IA/MO THROUGH LATE EVENING...
INTENSE STORMS POSING PRIMARILY A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL ARE ALREADY
UNDERWAY NORTH OF SFC WARM FRONT AND NEAR THE SD/NE BORDER THIS
MORNING /REF WW 206/. THIS CONVECTION WAS LIKELY ROOTED ABOVE THE
850MB LEVEL IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEPENING MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. EXPECT THESE ELEVATED STORMS
TO PERSIST GIVEN MASS AND MOISTURE FLUXES NOW UNDERWAY IN RESPONSE
TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DIABATIC PROCESSES.
BY MID-AFTERNOON...ELEVATED STORMS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO... 1) A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM
FRONT...AND 2) A DEEPENING COLD POOL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT.
MODEST TO LOCALLY STRONG WARM SECTOR SFC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
WEAKENING INHIBITION AND AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO
BECOME ROOTED IN A VERY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE FRONT BY
LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITHIN
THE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME OVER PARTS OF SD/NEB.
A FEW MODELS SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED WARM SECTOR DISCRETE STORMS
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NEB. ANY DISCRETE
STORMS INITIATING NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIST IN AN IDEAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS OF
200 M2/S2 AND RELATIVELY LOW LFC. AWAY FROM THE FRONT AND NEAR THE
DRYLINE...HEATING AND DEEPER MIXING MAY OFFSET THE TORNADO POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT AND RESULT IN MORE OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORMS WITH HIGH WIND
AND VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.
WHILE ABOVE SCENARIO HAS LOW TO MODEST CONFIDENCE...GREATER
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE CONTINUATION AND GRADUAL UPSCALE GROWTH OF
ONGOING CONVECTION INTO AN COMPLEX OF EVEN MORE INTENSE
STORMS...INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...MOVING ESEWD TO ERN NEB AND
THEN TO SRN IA/NRN MO THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. THIS CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP INTO AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 3000-4000 J
PER KG/ COINCIDENT WITH INTENSIFICATION OF A WLY 60-70KT MID-LEVEL
JET. BOTH PARALLEL ARW/NMMB HIRES WINDOWS DEPICT THIS SCENARIO QUITE
WELL BUT STILL OFFER DIFFERING OUTCOMES IN TIME/INTENSITY AND
PLACEMENT OF GREATEST HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN
DERECHO EVOLUTION ACROSS NEB/IA/MO AREA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND A COUPLE OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES IN THESE AREAS.
IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THIS WIDESPREAD SEVERE WIND
SCENARIO...A HIGH RISK AREA MAY BE ADDED IN THE AFTERNOON SWODY1
UPDATE.
...ACROSS THE MS RIVER TO IL/IND BEFORE DAYBREAK WED...
MCS/DERECHO SHOULD MAINTAIN DAMAGING WIND AND SOME HAIL POTENTIAL
EAST ACROSS THE MS RIVER AND INTO IL/IND...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
CDT. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION MAY ACT TO OFFSET MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WIND THREAT WITH TIME...UPSCALE STORM ORGANIZATION AND
CONTINUING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS AT LEAST MODEST
SEVERE WIND PROBABILITIES/SLGT RISK AREA IS WARRANTED AS FAR EAST AS
CENTRAL IND THROUGH DAYBREAK WED.
...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY NEWD TO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...
DIURNAL HEATING OF MIDDLE 60S-LOWER 70S PRE-FRONTAL SFC
DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT POCKETS OF MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY -- I.E. IN THE WAKE OF A BAND OF WEAK H85-H7 WARM
ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION CROSSING THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE WEAK...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ASCENT WILL BE
LOCALLY AUGMENTED BY DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING-INDUCED BAROCLINICITY
AHEAD OF THE ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION -- I.E. ACROSS NRN NY TO THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BUOYANCY AND 30-40 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW...SPORADIC
INSTANCES OF DMGG WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY ORGANIZED IN MULTICELL CLUSTERS.
..CARBIN/COHEN/KERR.. 06/03/2014
0 likes
-
TropicalAnalystwx13
- Category 5
- Posts: 2109
- Age: 26
- Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
- Location: Wilmington, NC
- Contact:
Re:
EF-5bigj wrote:Sounds like your going to be right on the day 1 high risk.
The parameters are there, but SPC outlooks are also based on coverage. I'm starting to think they don't have enough confidence that there will be enough long-lasting supercells to warrant a high risk for tornadoes alone.
Might get one for wind as the outlook states, though.
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139194
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Tue-Wed (6/2-3)
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 207
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST IOWA
NORTHWEST MISSOURI
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 115 PM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 90
MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF BROKEN
BOW NEBRASKA TO 70 MILES EAST OF SHENANDOAH IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 206...
DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF INTENSE STORMS NOW MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO
NERN NEB WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE AND POSE AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS. ALSO EXPECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR FROM CENTRAL NEB EAST ACROSS
THE MO RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IN ADDITION TO
LARGE HAIL...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST WITH ANY DISCRETE
STORMS THAT CAN INITIATE WITHIN STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY
VOLATILE WARM SECTOR WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
SUFFICIENTLY TO PROMOTE AND MAINTAIN STRONG LOW LEVEL STORM
ROTATION/MESOCYCLONES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29045.
...CARBIN
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 207
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST IOWA
NORTHWEST MISSOURI
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 115 PM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 90
MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF BROKEN
BOW NEBRASKA TO 70 MILES EAST OF SHENANDOAH IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 206...
DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF INTENSE STORMS NOW MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO
NERN NEB WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE AND POSE AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS. ALSO EXPECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR FROM CENTRAL NEB EAST ACROSS
THE MO RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IN ADDITION TO
LARGE HAIL...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST WITH ANY DISCRETE
STORMS THAT CAN INITIATE WITHIN STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY
VOLATILE WARM SECTOR WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
SUFFICIENTLY TO PROMOTE AND MAINTAIN STRONG LOW LEVEL STORM
ROTATION/MESOCYCLONES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29045.
...CARBIN
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 48 guests