Texas Summer 2021

[Brent]

I don't think it's getting enough attention but the heat wave coming to the Pac Nw and SW Canada might approach historic levels with all time highs broken from Seattle to Portland. This area of the country is not built for this kind of heat. The western drought is feeding back. 110+ in the valleys is crazy for a region that is used to 60s/70s.

Even for us 597dm contour spells hot hot hot imagine for them.

I was actually curious I know when I was in Seattle in the summer of 2017 a lot of places didn't even have A/C

[Iceresistance]

That's what I call a gully washer. I had about an inch today. This summer is likely going to stay wet too. Next week sure is looking pretty stormy.

I call it a toad strangler

In my part of Texas we call them Cen-tex Turd Floaters.

I call them a Washout . . .

[mcallum177]

Looking at the latest GFS has 118 in the puget sound. That's insane e. This is like when we were all model watching -10 in dfw back in February.

[rwfromkansas]

Looking at the latest GFS has 118 in the puget sound. That's insane e. This is like when we were all model watching -10 in dfw back in February.

While that’s overdone, people will die if it gets above 100 there, and that’s certain. Scary.

[rwfromkansas]

I’m off next Friday to help my brother shoot off the professional fireworks at his little lake cabin neighborhood in Kansas. Weather looks great, mid-80s. That doesn’t happen for July 4. Usually 95 and humid up there. I just hope it’s not stormy….but it looks a bit.

[captainbarbossa19]

Picked up 3.35” here this evening.

That's what I call a gully washer. I had about an inch today. This summer is likely going to stay wet too. Next week sure is looking pretty stormy.

The CPC forecast looks great for rain for the next couple weeks but the Euro and GFS don’t really show much, at least not for my area. They only have about 1-2” for the next 10 days. I mean that’s great but that doesn’t really scream out a stormy pattern to me or even above average rainfall for that matter. I don’t have access to the EPS but the GEFS doesn’t really have that much either. I’m not complaining though cuz I’m good on rain after what I had yesterday.

With daily summer showers, it is very difficult to say how much an area will get. Some may get 3 inches plus in one day like you. On the other hand, some areas may get little to no rain in one day. Global models are generally not very good at depicting local convective weather.

[Cpv17]

That's what I call a gully washer. I had about an inch today. This summer is likely going to stay wet too. Next week sure is looking pretty stormy.

The CPC forecast looks great for rain for the next couple weeks but the Euro and GFS don’t really show much, at least not for my area. They only have about 1-2” for the next 10 days. I mean that’s great but that doesn’t really scream out a stormy pattern to me or even above average rainfall for that matter. I don’t have access to the EPS but the GEFS doesn’t really have that much either. I’m not complaining though cuz I’m good on rain after what I had yesterday.

With daily summer showers, it is very difficult to say how much an area will get. Some may get 3 inches plus in one day like you. On the other hand, some areas may get little to no rain in one day. Global models are generally not very good at depicting local convective weather.

Yeah I like using the HRRR typically for the mesoscale models.

[Ntxw]

Ridge placements in the Pacific Northwest and Northeastern US is perfect for us in the summer. Keeps below normal temps and above average chances for rainfall. As mentioned by some above the nature of warm season rainfall can be extreme with some locales under a tropical downpour getting several inches while a little nearby. But the odds for everyone increases. Dewpoints are 70 and above so gully washers. This pattern continues through the July 4th holiday. So likely below normal temps for the holiday weekend.







Meanwhile a historic heatwave is happening in the Northwest US and Southwest Canada. 111F for Portland is absurd, even in Dallas and Houston that's a top 5 heatwave. Remember their infrastructure is built for temps to be in the 70s or room temperature. It's a doozy.

The May pattern has established itself as the dominant summer player. Looks more like a 2007 summer than a 2011 one.

[Iceresistance]

Ridge placements in the Pacific Northwest and Northeastern US is perfect for us in the summer. Keeps below normal temps and above average chances for rainfall. As mentioned by some above the nature of warm season rainfall can be extreme with some locales under a tropical downpour getting several inches while a little nearby. But the odds for everyone increases. Dewpoints are 70 and above so gully washers. This pattern continues through the July 4th holiday. So likely below normal temps for the holiday weekend.

https://i.imgur.com/k1zHSfL.gif

https://i.imgur.com/2wjSO4w.gif

https://i.imgur.com/L4FtV2U.gif

Meanwhile a historic heatwave is happening in the Northwest US and Southwest Canada. 111F for Portland is absurd, even in Dallas and Houston that's a top 5 heatwave. Remember their infrastructure is built for temps to be in the 70s or room temperature. It's a doozy.

Do you recall a Cooler La Nina Summer recently?

[Ntxw]

Ridge placements in the Pacific Northwest and Northeastern US is perfect for us in the summer. Keeps below normal temps and above average chances for rainfall. As mentioned by some above the nature of warm season rainfall can be extreme with some locales under a tropical downpour getting several inches while a little nearby. But the odds for everyone increases. Dewpoints are 70 and above so gully washers. This pattern continues through the July 4th holiday. So likely below normal temps for the holiday weekend.

https://i.imgur.com/k1zHSfL.gif

https://i.imgur.com/2wjSO4w.gif

https://i.imgur.com/L4FtV2U.gif

Meanwhile a historic heatwave is happening in the Northwest US and Southwest Canada. 111F for Portland is absurd, even in Dallas and Houston that's a top 5 heatwave. Remember their infrastructure is built for temps to be in the 70s or room temperature. It's a doozy.

Do you recall a Cooler La Nina Summer recently?

We are actually in neutral right now. Neutral can swing different ways, but 2021 has been dominated by the high latitude blocking either in the Pacific or Atlantic side which overall has kept us in a weakness all year. The Nina never had a strong grasp, but I'm thinking the recent low solar cycle had some effects on the blocking.



Even more evident in recent months.



Should this continue I would start considering Fall and Early winter to be blocky as well.

[Iceresistance]

Ridge placements in the Pacific Northwest and Northeastern US is perfect for us in the summer. Keeps below normal temps and above average chances for rainfall. As mentioned by some above the nature of warm season rainfall can be extreme with some locales under a tropical downpour getting several inches while a little nearby. But the odds for everyone increases. Dewpoints are 70 and above so gully washers. This pattern continues through the July 4th holiday. So likely below normal temps for the holiday weekend.

https://i.imgur.com/k1zHSfL.gif

https://i.imgur.com/2wjSO4w.gif

https://i.imgur.com/L4FtV2U.gif

Meanwhile a historic heatwave is happening in the Northwest US and Southwest Canada. 111F for Portland is absurd, even in Dallas and Houston that's a top 5 heatwave. Remember their infrastructure is built for temps to be in the 70s or room temperature. It's a doozy.

Do you recall a Cooler La Nina Summer recently?

We are actually in neutral right now. Neutral can swing different ways, but 2021 has been dominated by the high latitude blocking either in the Pacific or Atlantic side which overall has kept us in a weakness all year. The Nina never had a strong grasp, but I'm thinking the recent low solar cycle had some effects on the blocking.

https://i.imgur.com/Y0aV15p.png

Oh ok, But 111°F in Portland, OR is a LOT of damage, it would be bad here, but in the Pacific NW? That is just Torture!

[Ntxw]

I know this is Texas thread but just historic event going on. Portland broke the all time record high and will break it again several more times in the coming days going 110+. Prior was 107 in it's recorded history.

 https://twitter.com/NWSPortland/status/1408956182463610881




So far there have been 3 monstrous ridges in the Northern Plains, Southwest, and Pacific Northwest this summer season, quite an unprecedented feat. All three reading 600dm+ peaks at 500mb.

[Ntxw]

By comparison the official stations around the Texas Metros DFW, Houston IAH, Austin KAUS, and San Antonio KSAT, all have yet to reach 100F this year/summer.

Denver, Portland, Seattle have all gone above 100F.

If you believe long range guidance there's going to be another maxima ridge focused on the Northeastern sector of North America at some point into early July which could mean another heat wave once the Atlantic ridge connects, in particular the eastern US. It will then keep Texas /southern Plains beneath with cooler anomalies. This is a repeating pattern since last winter.

[vbhoutex]

By comparison the official stations around the Texas Metros DFW, Houston IAH, Austin KAUS, and San Antonio KSAT, all have yet to reach 100F this year/summer.

Denver, Portland, Seattle have all gone above 100F.

If you believe long range guidance there's going to be another maxima ridge focused on the Northeastern sector of North America at some point into early July which could mean another heat wave once the Atlantic ridge connects, in particular the eastern US. It will then keep Texas /southern Plains beneath with cooler anomalies. This is a repeating pattern since last winter.

I had not really thought of this, but you are correct!! So far a very anomolous year for almost all of Texas.

[DonWrk]

Will these massive ridges make a highway for tropical systems and steer them right in between or no?

[wxman22]

Will these massive ridges make a highway for tropical systems and steer them right in between or no?

To early to tell, but with a persistent weakness over the state. If a southeast ridge builds during August/September look out Texas....

[captainbarbossa19]

Will these massive ridges make a highway for tropical systems and steer them right in between or no?

To early to tell, but with a persistent weakness over the state. If a southeast ridge builds during August/September look out Texas....

There is already an east coast ridge developing now. Hopefully it will not be there like you said later on.

[Iceresistance]

By comparison the official stations around the Texas Metros DFW, Houston IAH, Austin KAUS, and San Antonio KSAT, all have yet to reach 100F this year/summer.

Denver, Portland, Seattle have all gone above 100F.

If you believe long range guidance there's going to be another maxima ridge focused on the Northeastern sector of North America at some point into early July which could mean another heat wave once the Atlantic ridge connects, in particular the eastern US. It will then keep Texas /southern Plains beneath with cooler anomalies. This is a repeating pattern since last winter.

I had not really thought of this, but you are correct!! So far a very anomolous year for almost all of Texas.

I know! The highest Temperature so far is 95 in Town! I’ve never thought this would happen!

[Ntxw]

Apex of heat wave in Pacific Northwest today. Portland is forecasted to be 114F and Seattle 111F (its previous all time record was 103F). By comparison DFW's record max is 113F from 1980.

In Texas rain is scattered across the state with temps in the 80s and low 90s.

[captainbarbossa19]

Apex of heat wave in Pacific Northwest today. Portland is forecasted to be 114F and Seattle 111F (its previous all time record was 103F). By comparison DFW's record max is 113F from 1980.

In Texas rain is scattered across the state with temps in the 80s and low 90s.

Now that we are well into meteorological summer, I suspect that the current pattern we are in is likely to continue for the remainder of the summer. We may have some occasional dry spells, but long-term dry weather is very unlikely at this point.