Texas Spring 2024

[snownado]

After this weekends rain, id he fine with not seeing anymore rain for a few weeks , exceeded over 8 inches here, send the rest to central or west texas, se texas does not need anymore rain, unless you live at the coast

^^^Amen to that!!!

[bubba hotep]

FWD expanded the flood watch to include all of the DFW metro area.

Is tonight’s rain still supposed to be south of DFW?

Their updated graphic only shows .50-1.00 total for most of DFW.

Models are all over the place but the 18z 3k NAM would deliver

[bubba hotep]

Looks like another big tornado on the ground in SW TX

[bubba hotep]

 https://x.com/NWSMidland/status/1786866408699433445

[HockeyTx82]

 https://x.com/NWSMidland/status/1786866408699433445

Not quite sure why, but there's something very majestic about a tornado out in the open plains or desert.

[Edwards Limestone]

Kinda losing the faith down south after another day of sweltering humidity with no precip. CAMs look like maybe 1-1.5” for my area with a quick line moving through overnight. Suppose I shouldn’t complain.

It’s amazing the difference between north/central and south/central TX the last week.

[bubba hotep]

00z HRRR gets a lot of people rain overnight and into tomorrow morning.

[Edwards Limestone]

00z HRRR gets a lot of people rain overnight and into tomorrow morning.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2024050500/040/qpf_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Definitely an improvement over the 23z for south TX

[bubba hotep]

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0225
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1012 PM EDT Sat May 04 2024

Areas affected...west-central to central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 050211Z - 050800Z

Summary...Flash flooding is likely to continue over portions of
west-central into central TX over the next 6 hours. Some
significant flash flooding will be possible, especially over
central TX, west of I-35 and south of I-20 where an additional 3
to 6+ inches is expected through 08Z.

Discussion...0145Z radar imagery over TX showed areas of
widespread thunderstorms within a messy distribution of convection
and surface boundaries. An MCV was noted over the southeastern TX
Panhandle, tracking toward the northeast, parallel to a slow
moving cold front which was preceded by a broken region of
thunderstorms. In addition, slow moving thunderstorms were noted
over central TX, north of a composite outflow boundary that
extended from near TPL, west-southwest to just north of 6R6.
Instability of 1000 to 2000+ J/kg was in place across TX,
supported by steep 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8-9 C/km as sampled
by 00Z soundings from DRT, MAF and FWD.

Large scale lift ahead of a shortwave trough, tracking east across
NM, will continue to overspread a large portion of TX overnight,
with highly divergent/diffluent flow aloft setting up over
portions of central TX, within the right entrance and left exit
regions of associated upper level jet maxima. Precipitable water
values have increased into the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range for much of
the region ahead of the cold front and southeasterly winds at 850
mb are forecast by the RAP to sustain at roughly 20-30 kt,
supporting lift atop rain-cooled air at the surface.

Eventual congealing into a more organized MCS is expected through
06Z, but with the longest residence time of heavy rainfall
occurring for the region of central TX south of I-20 and west of
I-35, where rainfall rates of 2 to 3+ in/hr will be most likely to
continue within areas of training and cell mergers. Portions of
central TX are more sensitive to flash flooding due to recent
rainfall and the addition of another 3 to 6+ inches could lead to
areas of significant flash flooding. Farther north, the track of
the MCV into southern OK may support a narrow stripe of heavier
rainfall near the slow moving frontal boundary. Farther west,
across southern portions of the Permian Basin, a supercell
tracking into Crockett and Val Verde counties is expected to
continue toward the east while convective development, along the
southwestern edge of the expected MCS, potentially leads to
training for portions of the Hill Country overnight.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

[ElectricStorm]

Welp... 0z model suite is a little more concerning than I expected it to be. Hoping the cap stays strong and cloud cover stays down here because that's gonna be a nasty environment if we end up getting supercells. Might be trending towards a nocturnal event too

Luckily CAMs at 48hrs out can be a little wonky. Interested to read the SPC discussion tonight

[bubba hotep]

Wow, some super impressive cloud to ground lightning out there tonight!

[HockeyTx82]

Wow, some super impressive cloud to ground lightning out there tonight!

Yeah, my mom lives in Carrollton. I just got off the phone with her after ter the hockey game ended in overtime. She was just telling me about it. They're in the middle of it right now.

[ElectricStorm]

Day 2 moderate

[mmmmsnouts]

This is wild - 3 feet of hail east of San Angelo reported by NWS in a flash flood warning:

https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KSJT/2405050134.wgus54.html

[Cpv17]

Day 2 moderate
https://i.imgur.com/lu7GcmG.gif

Pretty rare stuff right there. Looking like an all week event too.

[DallasAg]

00z HRRR gets a lot of people rain overnight and into tomorrow morning.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2024050500/040/qpf_acc-imp.us_sc.png

3.74" IMBY North Dallas about 5 miles ENE from KDAL. Seems like Dallas County has consistently been the winner this spring. Hopefully a drier week ahead.

Tbh, the last 3-4 weeks have reminded me of what I remember spring being like in Texas when I was growing up (Plano), especially with all of the activity that west Texas has been getting. Daily severe weather, mostly way west of us, organizing into squall lines or MCS that sweep in over night. In various forms or fashions through June. In a world where nothing is like it used to be, it's nice to see something familiar.

Now if Mother Nature can find a way to fill in the holes for those who've missed out hopefully we can enter summer with enough of a surplus to stave off the heat dome or at least delay its onset.

[Fifty Rock]

Can’t seem to find rainfall totals for shackelford county texas

[bubba hotep]

Can’t seem to find rainfall totals for shackelford county texas

Try this site - https://www.texmesonet.org/

Or this - https://maps.cocorahs.org/

[rwfromkansas]

This is wild - 3 feet of hail east of San Angelo reported by NWS in a flash flood warning:

https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KSJT/2405050134.wgus54.html

I haven’t seen any photos of this. I call shenanigans.

If there was 3 feet, there would be photos.

3 inches I could see.

[rwfromkansas]

About 1.65 IMBY. It poured for awhile.

Dallas got clobbered so unfortunately just missed DFW.

So nice to sleep to rain. Reminds me of June as a kid in Kansas. Overnight rain a lot.