ElectricStorm wrote:0z HRRR is a major problem for northern OK. Also tries to fire more cells further south than the 18z did. Not a fan...
Interesting forecast ahead tomorrow for Oklahoma. Despite the SPC graphic showing a moderate risk across that region, my guess is the threat there ends up being more conditional however due to some capping/cloud cover that will need to be overcome. In addition, this seems like another system that will cut north through the mid to upper Midwest rather than ejecting out across the Plains from the Rockies. The LLJ may end up being pushed further north across Kansas into southern Nebraska as the vort max continues to pivot north per the models during the day. Not your "typical" plains severe weather setup.
I think we saw a similar setup in late March/early April if I'm not mistaken (albeit not as loaded with instability then) which resulted in a bust further south. Let's hope that's the case tomorrow for folks across Oklahoma despite there being some impressive severe weather parameters in place hence the SPC moderate risk. Complicated forecast though and not as clear cut in my opinion for your area. All it takes however is one or two storms and so definitely a day to watch the radar and real-time trends.
Wouldn't be surprised to see some higher probs added across much of Central/Eastern Kansas in particular possibly stretching into southern Nebraska, western Iowa and Missouri especially if instability values end up being a little higher than models currently forecast. Good news is I'm not seeing a lot of individual supercells on the 0z CAM's out ahead of the line that models eventually develop late into the evening.