Texas Spring 2024
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
Two potentially problematic cells out west of DFW. Depends on how far NE they can get before hooking back SE.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Re: Texas Spring 2024
bubba hotep wrote:Two potentially problematic cells out west of DFW. Depends on how far NE they can get before hooking back SE.
At least for the northern part of DFW (proper), I'm definitely seeing on the radar how it may be spared now (and what the HRRR has been depicting).
Still a bit too soon to say for certain though.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
snownado wrote:bubba hotep wrote:Two potentially problematic cells out west of DFW. Depends on how far NE they can get before hooking back SE.
At least for the northern part of DFW (proper), I'm definitely seeing on the radar how it may be spared now (and what the HRRR has been depicting).
Still a bit too soon to say for certain though.
It's Svr Warned now and moving east. Yes, I think the HRRR might hold up.
Stay safe everyone!
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
That storm just came through here with ping pong size hail. It's rotating as well, would not be surprised to see it drop a tornado before long.
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- cheezyWXguy
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
Think the western storm will miss dfw to south, but that eastern one palo pinto could be problematic
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
cheezyWXguy wrote:Think the western storm will miss dfw to south, but that eastern one palo pinto could be problematic
Assuming it maintains intensity (it's weakened a bit for now)...
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
Palo Pinto storm is turning east more. If it maintains this position, it may hit me. But, it may turn slightly SE like the other one and miss me to the south. If it gets huge hail, I hope it does.
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- cheezyWXguy
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
I may be following the wrong green squiggly line (ie boundary) on radar, but it looks to me like all these extra storms in the north are causing the stationary front to move south (I guess then it’s not stationary anymore). North of the front storms have been moving more ene while storms south seem to be more likely to dive ese. If this is the case, the metro probably has a greater chance of seeing storms in general in form of elevated hailers while the tornado threat shifts south out of the area. Any thoughts on this?
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
cheezyWXguy wrote:I may be following the wrong green squiggly line (ie boundary) on radar, but it looks to me like all these extra storms in the north are causing the stationary front to move south (I guess then it’s not stationary anymore). North of the front storms have been moving more ene while storms south seem to be more likely to dive ese. If this is the case, the metro probably has a greater chance of seeing storms in general in form of elevated hailers while the tornado threat shifts south out of the area. Any thoughts on this?
I think the front was slightly further south, but I see that green line you mention. I am north of it now, and my dewpoint has dropped significantly. On RS it looked like it shot out from a storm to the north to me, but hard to tell...
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
cheezyWXguy wrote:I may be following the wrong green squiggly line (ie boundary) on radar, but it looks to me like all these extra storms in the north are causing the stationary front to move south (I guess then it’s not stationary anymore). North of the front storms have been moving more ene while storms south seem to be more likely to dive ese. If this is the case, the metro probably has a greater chance of seeing storms in general in form of elevated hailers while the tornado threat shifts south out of the area. Any thoughts on this?
So in essence, it's an outflow boundary (which may end becoming an effective "cold" front).
If anything, as radar tends are hinting at, this would help DFW avoid much of the severe activity
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
Palo Pinto storm is turning further SE as well. So, good news for at least central/northern Tarrant County. Southern Tarrant and Dallas could still get some impacts. And this assumes no further development. That could change things.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
Did that one storm eat the other storm northwest of Granbury?
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
snownado wrote:cheezyWXguy wrote:I may be following the wrong green squiggly line (ie boundary) on radar, but it looks to me like all these extra storms in the north are causing the stationary front to move south (I guess then it’s not stationary anymore). North of the front storms have been moving more ene while storms south seem to be more likely to dive ese. If this is the case, the metro probably has a greater chance of seeing storms in general in form of elevated hailers while the tornado threat shifts south out of the area. Any thoughts on this?
So in essence, it's an outflow boundary (which may end becoming an effective "cold" front).
If anything, as radar tends are hinting at, this would help DFW avoid much of the severe activity
It looks like it's killing the storms moving east, for now at least.
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
- txtwister78
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
rwfromkansas wrote:Palo Pinto storm is turning further SE as well. So, good news for at least central/northern Tarrant County. Southern Tarrant and Dallas could still get some impacts. And this assumes no further development. That could change things.
Yup. With the boundary clearly moving through DFW, that should be all she wrote in terms of any significant severe weather there (should stabilize things somewhat). Watching Central Texas now and to see how far SE storms can get once they develop (in particular those trying to go up just east of San Angelo).
Elevated stuff along the river still has some pockets of hail up to quarters.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
HockeyTx82 wrote:Did that one storm eat the other storm northwest of Granbury?
The forward flank of the SW cell interfered with the other storm causing it to weaken significantly.
*Edit - Also the southward moving outflow boundary from the northern storms as others just pointed out.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
The Red River always seems to get more and worst storms in May than DFW, and Granbury is a tornado magnet, so seems about right today.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
Anti-freeze wrote:The Red River always seems to get more and worst storms in May than DFW, and Granbury is a tornado magnet, so seems about right today.
That seems to hold true for NE TX as well. The US 82 corridor sees a ton of supercells, it seems.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
The supercell is tracking pretty much where the HRRR had it a couple times today. Fascinating how things can change. I didn't want monster hail, but I will still take any rain before summer.
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